NB: From the data above it can be inferred that the probability of the crisis lasting between 1.5years(Spring 2010) to 3 years (Fall 2011) is 80%-30%=50%
20% chances the present situation will persist (The Blues, see the Measurements Section).
25% chance there will be a significant worsening (getting to Generalized Poverty, see theMeasurements Section).
55% chance we will reach a critical level of disservice (Severe Impoverishment andCatastrophic Disruption, see the Measurements Section).
Measurements of Magnitude
As a measurement of the Depth of Recession we selected the “loss of service and control” in a “G20type country” system, rather than usual financial indicators. As a matter of fact, the review of 200years of history clearly shows that finance and societal well being do not always follow the sametime scales.We used simple terms to define the damage, to allow readers to easily get a mental image of whatwe meant when we defined the various increasing levels of “loss of service and control” as follows:1.
, which corresponds in our case to the Status Quo, i.e. the state of affairs in November2008, i.e. wide-spread budget cuts in the non- key services, for example starting with culture, arts,then spreading to to education
; some protests
, high rate of unemployment (up to 10%-12%), poor to inexistentmaintenance of civil systems, reduced health programs, reduction of salaries of public officers,protests, some criminality increase, and some violence
extreme rate of unemployment (over 12%), severe reductions of publictransportation offer
,gradual replacement of police forces with armed forces patrolling
, reductionof state-managed retirement plans, with generalized protests and criminality increase, high violenceetc.4.
(of Order and Quality of Life), global rioting, wide-spread criminalityand sacking, and critical loss of control.Reportedly some countries in the G20 group had already passed the Status Quo level one year ago,but as we were developing this study for a “generalized” country within the group, we did not focusour attention on these particular cases.Using these four steps it appears that a country in:
TB: the Blues
, can be considered as a lightly damaged system;
GP: Generalized Poverty
can be considered as in critical state, but still functioning, meanwhile acountry with
SI: Severe Impoverishment
CD: Catastrophic Disruption
can be considered as in a “failed systemstate”.The paucity of available data, quite common in our practice, in any industry we work for, did notdeter us from defining probabilities (which of course were not based on proper statistics as they
cuts were already being performed in various countries, France, Italy etc.
also in act, Russia, Japan, etc
to some level already reportedly happening in some G20 countries
already we have seen in many countries a reduction of the railroad network over the pastdecades, but not yet emergency cuts
already in act to some extent in Italy, US, sometimes under the “war on terrorism” cover