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SAMPLE EXAM QUESTIONS #2 1. in a Time-series Forecasting Problem,

SAMPLE EXAM QUESTIONS #2 1. in a Time-series Forecasting Problem,

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05/18/2013

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SAMPLE EXAM QUESTIONS #2
1. In a time-series forecasting problem, if the seasonal indices for quarters 1, 2, and 3 are .80,.90, and .95 respectively, what can you say about the seasonal index for quarter 4?A) It will be less than 1.B) It will be greater than 1.C) It will be equal to1.D) Seasonality does not exist.E) There is insufficient data to say anything.2. If actual sales are 120 units and the seasonal index is 1.2, then the deseasonalized sales are(Note that this question is
not 
related to the previous test question):A) 100.0B) 118.8C) 121.2D) 132.9E) 144.0
Directions for Problems 3-6:
Sam Piper is trying to forecast sales for his store, Sam’s SportingSupermart. Sam's first try was with Simple Exponential Smoothing, using
α
= 0.75.Unfortunately, his dog chewed his worksheet. Please help him by filling in the missing cells (seecells with question marks) with correct values, or correct Excel formulas.A B C D E F1 Year Quarter Enroll-ment Forecast
   
Error Abs Error 2 1997 1 313 3133 2 285 313 ?4 3 312 292 20 205 4 339 307 32 326 1998 1 359 331 28 287 2 320
   
   
 
   
 8 3 356 328
   
 
   
28 289 4 385 349 36 ?10 1999 1 396
   
376
   
20
   
2011 2 367
   
   
 12 3 397 373 24 2413 4 423 391 32 3214 2000 1
   
4151516 Alpha =
0.75
MAD =
   
 3. Find the forecast for 1998 Q2 (cell D7).A) =(C6*B16)+(D6*B16)B) =(C6*B16)+(D6*(1-B16))C) =(C7*B16)+(D6*(1-C16))D) =(C7*B16)-(D6*(1-C16))E) =(C7*C16)+(E6*C16)
 
SAMPLE EXAM QUESTIONS #2
4. Find the Error for 1997 Q2 (cell E3).A) 0B) 6C) -6D) 28E) -285. Find the Absolute Error for 1998 Q4 (cell F9).A) -36B) 0C) 20D) 28E) 366. If Sam had used a Naïve forecast, what would his forecast for Q1, 2000 have been?A) 391B) 403C) 410D) 415E) 423Use the data in the following table to answer Questions 7 and 8.
SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.8330373 R Square 0.6939511Adjusted R Square 0.5919348 Standard Error 44.176596 Observations 5 ANOVAdf SS MS Significance Regression 1 13275.2850213275.296.8023560.07981342Residual 3 5854.7149841951.572 Total 4 19130 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 57.104235 50.387996911.133290.339471103.2530105 217.46148 X Variable 1 0.9299674 0.3565644672.6081330.079813 0.204780908 2.06471576 
 7. What percentage of variation of the dependent variable is explained by time?:A) 83.303%B) 69.395%C) 59.193%D) 92.996%E) This data is not provided8. Given the information shown above, calculate a 95% confidence interval for a forecastedvalue of 44.18.

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