BAcKgRoUndER | ISIS BATTlE PlAn FoR BAgHdAd | JESSIcA d. lEWIS | JUnE 27, 2014
objetives 1 a 2 are hih ee assessmets base up hw ISIS has prseute its Iraq ampai sie aui the “Breaki the Was” ampai i Juy 2012. objetives 3 a 4 are preitive assessmets that erive frm a uerstai that ISIS is beai t the braer jihaist mmuity thruh suh meas as sia meia a its ew Eish-auae Isami State Reprt, a periia that emphasizes the iyi quaities f ife a verae i the Emirate rather tha sey the miitary vitries f ISIS.
ISIS ikey ites a wi set itis t expa its territry bey Iraq a Syria. ISIS wi as ikey prjet a eurae terrrist attaks utsie f the Mie East i rer t aim eaership ver the ba jihaist ause. Fr the purpses f evauati the ext steps f the ISIS miitary ampai, it is vita t reize that ISIS at pree with its Isami Emirate if the uitary state f Iraq sti stas. A survivi Iraqi state a rever its frmer streth a pse a existetia threat t ISIS if Iraq is awe t preserve its apita, its miitary, a its aiaes. ISIS ikey ites t esure Iraq’s permaet ijury, by estryi the Iraqi miitary i the viiity f Baha; by estryi the seat f vermet i Baha; by attaki re iterests f her aies; r by estryi the apita. destryi the seat f vermet i Baha is ikey the primary taret, thuh the thers may be pursue i supprt r juti. It is imprtat t te that the cui f Represetatives atheri sheue fr Juy 1, 2014 t frm Iraq’s ew vermet may represet a ceter f gravity taret that ISIS wi attempt t expit.
ISIS has ikey siere what itis wu traspire after suh a attak, shu they prve suessfu. The remats f Baha, diyaa, a Karbaa wu frm a ew brer exusi ze betwee ISIS a a ew Iraia prtetrate mprise f Iraq’s suther prvies. The ISIS rther brer may preserve Iraqi Kurista as a rther equivaet brer exusi ze separati ISIS frm Ira t the rth. ISIS wu ee t seure these zes thruh tiue esives. Aterativey, ISIS may try t uermie the efeses f Iraqi Kurista s it is er a miitary threat. ISIS wu as ee t maae ajaet frts a syhrize fr eet i Syria a ther states i the levat. Rather tha t hpe that ISIS at ahieve its bjetives, it is pruet t evauate whether they have the meas a the stratei auus t suee by attaki a estryi the Iraqi vermet i Baha. Whie this bakruer wi fus up the immiet threat f a ISIS attak up Baha, it is as eessary t rear the Syria frt as e that ISIS may prseute with ummitte miitary fres i deir ez-Zur, Raqqa, a Aepp. These fres rw strer as ISIS aquires mre repwer a mapwer thruh its battee vitries i Iraq.
likewise, as ISIS frmuates attak searis fr Baha, ther ISIS fres i the rth a east f Iraq wi ikey tiue t perate i their respetive zes.
ISIS MILITARY SECTORS IN IRAQ
A year befre ISIS emir Abu Bakr a-Bahai eare the expasi f the Isami State f Iraq it a-Sham, the Isami State f Iraq (ISI) ha reeerate the apaity t sustai a ati-wie ampai f Vehie-Bre Imprvise Expsive devie (VBIEd) attaks thruh ampe huma a materia resures. ISI eaership at that time raize VBIEds it waves f simutaeus attaks, emstrati eetive mma a tr ver a istribute ru fre. The VBIEd attaks etrate rst i easter Iraq, i the Hamri rie rrir eai t rther diyaa, emstrati a reewe presee i a histri supprt ze ear where Abu Musab a-Zarqawi ha bee kie i 2006.
The re miitary apaity f ISIS at this time was terrrism.ISIS as reeerate the apaity t exeute a mbie arms attak aaist a xe site, suh as a pris. I September 2012, ISIS ahieve its rst vitry this frt, breaki 38 frmer AQI eaers frm Tikrit Tasrat pris.
At the e f the “Breaki the Was” ampai i Juy 2013, the ewy expae ISIS suessfuy brke 500 prisers frm Abu ghraib pris.
The reease f mutipe eeratis f frmer AQI eaers, a as the eraphy f these attaks, iiate where a hw ISIS evepe aitia eaership es. By the e f 2013, ISIS ha ikey evepe miitary heaquarters mmai peratis i separate zes i rther diyaa, the Jazeera esert west f Tikrit, a the Thar Thar rei rth f Abu ghraib. A three mmas were ativey eae i itimiati ampais t erae state seurity fres by the e f 2013, a preue t estabishi tr f urba terrai.
I Jauary 2014, ISIS exeute a ru assaut up the Abar ities f Faujah a Ramai.
Simutaeusy, separate ISIS fres i Syria siate wester psitis i Aepp Prvie a estabishe mpete tr i Raqqa.
drawi the ISF it a mai ert uter-attak i Abar a xi them there, ISIS eae i separate attaks i rther Baha a Samarra, iiati that the fres require t eae i the Ramai-Faujah ht were istit frm thse that u perate i the rther Baha Bets.
likewise, the ISIS easter fres attempte severa times t estabish tr f urba terrai betwee Sueima Be a Saia, eve attaki the suther Baquba suburb f Buhriz i Marh 2014.
With the Iraqi Seurity Fres eae i the west a east, ISIS eae its rther fres i eary Jue 2014 t seize Msu, Tikrit, Baiji, Hawija, a Ta Afar.
This ampai has sie expae t the upper Euphrates, with ISIS estabishi tr i Rawa, Aa, a Qaim.
Aitia ISIS fres ikey mve frm these uter Abar atis t take tr f Rutba, ear the Jraia brer Jue 23, 2014.
The ISIS ampai i Iraq verame the Iraqi Seurity Fres i the rth a west, the mbat reaiess f whih ISIS attaks a iatteti by