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ISIS Battle Plan for Baghdad

ISIS Battle Plan for Baghdad

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Published by zerohedge
ISIS Battle Plan for Baghdad
ISIS Battle Plan for Baghdad

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Published by: zerohedge on Jun 28, 2014
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here are iiatis that ISIS is abut t auh it a ew esive i Iraq. ISIS pubishe phts f a miitary parae thruh the streets f Msu  Jue 24, 2014 shwasi U.S. miitary equipmet, iui armre vehies a twe artiery systems.
 ISIS reprtey exeute ather parae i Hawijah  Jue 26, 2014.
 These paraes may be a emstrati f fre t reifre their tr f these urba eters. They may as be a preue t ISIS trp mvemets, a it is imprtat t atiipate where ISIS may epy these fres frwar. Meawhie, ISIS as reewe the use f suiie bmbers i the viiity f Baha. A ISIS bmber with a suiie vest (SVEST) attake the Kahimiya shrie i rther Baha   Jue 26, 2014,
 e f the fur hy sites i Iraq that Ira a Shi’a miitias are mst ere t prtet. ISIS as irprate a SVEST it a mpex attak i Mahmuiyah, suth f Baha,  Jue 25, 2014 i a ze primariy tre by the Iraqi Seurity Fres (ISF) a Shi’a miitias  the ra frm Baha t Karbaa.
 These attaks are emstratis that ISIS has ummitte fres i the Baha Bets that may be bruht t bear i ew esives. ISIS’s esive has t umiate, a the ISIS ampai fr Iraq is t ver. Rather, as Ramaa apprahes, their mai esive is ikey immiet.*
 June 27, 2014
 Jessica D. Lewis
The Isami State f Iraq a a-Sham (ISIS) is frmiabe, but it is as preitabe. ISIS has expse may f the re eemets f its stratey, a it is pssibe t atiipate their ext steps. ISW assesses with ee that ISIS’s urba esive beu i Msu has t umiate, a its ampai fr Iraq is t ver. ISIS’s ext urba bjetive wi ikey be t ear the Haitha-Ramai rrir a the Euphrates River i Abar.
ISIS’s utimate miitary bjetive i Iraq is ikey t estry the vermet i Baha. This bakruer wi assess ISIS’s ext steps i Iraq i iht f its braer stratei as. T  s, the bakruer wi examie where ISIS ha miitary streth prir t the fa f Msu a ivetry its ummitte fres. Base up bservabe eemets f the ISIS stye f warfare, this bakruer wi bserve where ISIS may have heaquarters a hw ISIS has ikey ivie the ht i Iraq a Syria it setrs. It wi evauate ISIS’s iterim miitary bjetives i eah setr base  bserve atis, beause ISIS’s stratey tiues t be arefu a eiberate.
ISIS seeks t reate a Isami Emirate extei arss Iraq a Syria. This visi is expasiist, a it is prseute thruh miitary quest. ISIS’s ra stratey epes up miitary superirity t wrest tr f terrai frm mer states by vermi state seurity. The ISIS stye f warfare hybriizes terrrism, ueria warfare, a vetia warfare. The presee f the ast iiates that the ISIS ikey pssesses a are
f frmer Saam-era miitary ers wh kw the miitary terrai i Iraq as their w. The miitary ampai esi exhibite by ISIS ver the ast tw years
 bears the siature f mutipe mmaers, thuh suessive ampais i Iraq have sistety emstrate spe, istributi, eepti, a timi as verarhi stratei harateristis. The i f ISIS’s reet urba ampai i Iraq expses their ikey ext steps.  Whe fai suh a eemy, it is pruet t bei by assessi the pitia bjetives that the ISIS miitary ampai i Iraq must supprt:1. Permaety break w pitia buaries i Iraq, Syria, a the rei by utivati itis fr vermet faiure a/r setaria ivi war.2. Estabish the Isami Emirate by tri terrai arss Iraq a Syria, veri the ppuati withi, a efei aaist extera threats.3. Bri ike-mie pepe t ht asie a sette withi the Isami Emirate.4. Expa the territry f the Emirate a et it t the  wier Musim mmuity, r the Ummah.
 For more information on the current situation in Iraq, see ISW’s daily “Iraq Situation Report,” published at http://iswiraq.blogspot.com/.
BAcKgRoUndER | ISIS BATTlE PlAn FoR BAgHdAd | JESSIcA d. lEWIS | JUnE 27, 2014
objetives 1 a 2 are hih ee assessmets base up hw ISIS has prseute its Iraq ampai sie aui the “Breaki the Was” ampai i Juy 2012. objetives 3 a 4 are preitive assessmets that erive frm a uerstai that ISIS is beai t the braer jihaist mmuity thruh suh meas as sia meia a its ew Eish-auae Isami State Reprt, a periia that emphasizes the iyi quaities f ife a verae i the Emirate rather tha sey the miitary vitries f ISIS.
 ISIS ikey ites a wi set itis t expa its territry bey Iraq a Syria. ISIS wi as ikey prjet a eurae terrrist attaks utsie f the Mie East i rer t aim eaership ver the ba jihaist ause. Fr the purpses f evauati the ext steps f the ISIS miitary ampai, it is vita t reize that ISIS at pree with its Isami Emirate if the uitary state f Iraq sti stas. A survivi Iraqi state a rever its frmer streth a pse a existetia threat t ISIS if Iraq is awe t preserve its apita, its miitary, a its aiaes. ISIS ikey ites t esure Iraq’s permaet ijury, by estryi the Iraqi miitary i the viiity f Baha; by estryi the seat f vermet i Baha; by attaki re iterests f her aies; r by estryi the apita. destryi the seat f vermet i Baha is ikey the primary taret, thuh the thers may be pursue i supprt r juti. It is imprtat t te that the cui f Represetatives atheri sheue fr Juy 1, 2014 t frm Iraq’s ew vermet may represet a ceter f gravity taret that ISIS wi attempt t expit.
ISIS has ikey siere what itis wu traspire after suh a attak, shu they prve suessfu. The remats f Baha, diyaa, a Karbaa wu frm a ew brer exusi ze betwee ISIS a a ew Iraia prtetrate mprise f Iraq’s suther prvies. The ISIS rther brer may preserve Iraqi Kurista as a rther equivaet brer exusi ze separati ISIS frm Ira t the rth. ISIS wu ee t seure these zes thruh tiue esives. Aterativey, ISIS may try t uermie the efeses f Iraqi Kurista s it is  er a miitary threat. ISIS wu as ee t maae ajaet frts a syhrize fr eet i Syria a ther states i the levat. Rather tha t hpe that ISIS at ahieve its bjetives, it is pruet t evauate whether they have the meas a the stratei auus t suee by attaki a estryi the Iraqi vermet i Baha. Whie this bakruer wi fus up the immiet threat f a ISIS attak up Baha, it is as eessary t rear the Syria frt as e that ISIS may prseute with ummitte miitary fres i deir ez-Zur, Raqqa, a Aepp. These fres rw strer as ISIS aquires mre repwer a mapwer thruh its battee vitries i Iraq.
 likewise, as ISIS frmuates attak searis fr Baha, ther ISIS fres i the rth a east f Iraq wi ikey tiue t perate i their respetive zes.
 A year befre ISIS emir Abu Bakr a-Bahai eare the expasi f the Isami State f Iraq it a-Sham, the Isami State f Iraq (ISI) ha reeerate the apaity t sustai a ati-wie ampai f Vehie-Bre Imprvise Expsive devie (VBIEd) attaks thruh ampe huma a materia resures. ISI eaership at that time raize VBIEds it  waves f simutaeus attaks, emstrati eetive mma a tr ver a istribute ru fre. The VBIEd attaks etrate rst i easter Iraq, i the Hamri rie rrir eai t rther diyaa, emstrati a reewe presee i a histri supprt ze ear where Abu Musab a-Zarqawi ha bee kie i 2006.
 The re miitary apaity f ISIS at this time was terrrism.ISIS as reeerate the apaity t exeute a mbie arms attak aaist a xe site, suh as a pris. I September 2012, ISIS ahieve its rst vitry  this frt, breaki 38 frmer AQI eaers frm Tikrit Tasrat pris.
 At the e f the “Breaki the Was” ampai i Juy 2013, the ewy expae ISIS suessfuy brke 500 prisers frm Abu ghraib pris.
 The reease f mutipe eeratis f frmer  AQI eaers, a as the eraphy f these attaks, iiate  where a hw ISIS evepe aitia eaership es. By the e f 2013, ISIS ha ikey evepe miitary heaquarters mmai peratis i separate zes i rther diyaa, the Jazeera esert west f Tikrit, a the Thar Thar rei rth f Abu ghraib.  A three mmas were ativey eae i itimiati ampais t erae state seurity fres by the e f 2013, a preue t estabishi tr f urba terrai.
 I Jauary 2014, ISIS exeute a ru assaut up the Abar ities f Faujah a Ramai.
 Simutaeusy, separate ISIS fres i Syria siate wester psitis i Aepp Prvie a estabishe mpete tr i Raqqa.
 drawi the ISF it a mai ert uter-attak i Abar a xi them there, ISIS eae i separate attaks i rther Baha a Samarra, iiati that the fres require t eae i the Ramai-Faujah ht were istit frm thse that u perate i the rther Baha Bets.
 likewise, the ISIS easter fres attempte severa times t estabish tr f urba terrai betwee Sueima Be a Saia, eve attaki the suther Baquba suburb f Buhriz i Marh 2014.
 With the Iraqi Seurity Fres eae i the west a east, ISIS eae its rther fres i eary Jue 2014 t seize Msu, Tikrit, Baiji, Hawija, a Ta Afar.
 This ampai has sie expae t the upper Euphrates, with ISIS estabishi tr i Rawa, Aa, a Qaim.
 Aitia ISIS fres ikey mve frm these uter Abar atis t take tr f Rutba, ear the Jraia brer  Jue 23, 2014.
 The ISIS ampai i Iraq verame the Iraqi Seurity Fres i the rth a west, the mbat reaiess f whih ISIS attaks a iatteti by
BAcKgRoUndER | ISIS BATTlE PlAn FoR BAgHdAd | JESSIcA d. lEWIS | JUnE 27, 2014
the Iraqi vermet ha erae.
 Meawhie, the ISIS easter mma seize tr f Sueima Be a earby  viaes i juti with the iitia assaut up Msu.
This rms that ISIS a attak arss mutipe mmas a mutipe frts simutaeusy, whie hi further psitis i Faujah a Ramai. The fres rth a suth f Faujah i the viiity f Thar Thar a Jurf a-Sakhar have bee quiet uri this rther a easter esive. It is therefre eessary t rear the ptetia fr ISIS fres rth, west, a suth f Baha, ummitte at this time, t exeute esives ear Baha. give the ampai esi sphistiati eviee by ISIS t ate, a ive the ra sae f their stratei estate, it is ikey that ISIS wi evep a stratey t attak Baha fr maximum eet t rippe Iraq a prevet a uter-attak by the Iraqi Seurity Fres. It is as imprtat t reize that ISIS ikey raws histri memry frm AQI frmer eaership reease frm priss, suh that the frmer AQI pa t upy the Baha Bets i rer t tr Baha, may sti be reevat t their urret batte pa. It is as pssibe that ISIS ha a stratey fr Baha prir t the fa f Msu that ISIS must w ajust, base up uatiipate eves f Shi’a miitia mbiizati a Iraia ivvemet i Baha efeses. nevertheess, there are ways that ISIS a pursue this utimate bjetive espite these irumstaes, a ISIS is ikey pai aaist these kw straits.
The ISIS urba esive whih bea  Jue 10, 2014 i Msu has t umiate. ISIS shifte the mai ert f its urba esive  Jue 21 t the Euphrates rrir that ets  Abar prvie t Syria, seizi the tws f Rawa, Aa, a Qaim a the Euphrates rrir. ISIS wi ikey tiue its Euphrates mai ert uti its fres i these tws se the ap betwee Haitha a Ramai, seuri a f the tws i  Abar fr ISIS tr. ISIS wi arry its mmetum frwar t wrest Abar frm the Iraqi Army mpetey. Seizi Ramai may be the a bjetive f this ampai phase beause the ity is the symbi a rea hme f the Abar Awakei. The urret esives aterati betwee Abar a rther Iraq are fuametay ike a part f the same ampai esi.  We have areay bserve this aterati i eary 2014, whe ISIS ute shapi peratis fr the Msu ampai  whie pai its mai mbat ert i Faujah.This ISIS rther esive brke Iraq it three ris f tr. This was ikey part f the ISIS vera batte pa, beause ri-shape setr esiati is harateristi f the
ISIS Control ZonesISIS Attack ZonesISIS Support Zones
This map depicts ISIS support, attack and control zones as of June 23, 2014. While the ISIS urban oensive that began in Mosul has primarily secured cities deep within the Sunni heartland, there are also ISIS forces positioned near to Baghdad that may present future threats.

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