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This material has been produced by RBS sales and trading staff and should not be considered independent.
The Round Up
30 November 2009
Issue No. 228
The Round Up is a comprehensive daily note produced by the RBS Warrantsteam providing an overview of market movements along with quality ideas forwarrant traders and investors.
In today’s issue
Global Market Action
Scoreboard, commentary
Aussie Market Action
SPI Comment, Events & Dividends
UGL (UGLKZC) MINI Trading Buy
– Top sector pick
BXB (BXBKZG) MINI Trading Buy
– Recovery Story
TLS (TLSSZX) SFI Investment Buy –
Regulatory risk falling
 Round Up Corner Banks Update – ANZ,CBA,NAB,WBC
Equities
Move Last % Move Range Volume
ASX 200-136.54572.1-2.9% 
-146 to -32.u.c $6.5 bn(H)
SPI - yesterday-122.04596.0-2.6% 
-151 to -83.u.c 36,716(H)
Dow Jones-154.510309.9-1.5% 
-233 to -12 Low
S&P 500-19.11091.5-1.7% 
-27 to -5 Low
Nasdaq-37.62138.4-1.7% 
-62 to -21 Low
FTSE+51.6 5245.7 +1.0%
-90 to +77 High
Commodities
Move Last % Today % Past Month
Oil-WTI spot-1.976.1-2.4% -4.4%  Gold Spot-10.81177.6-0.9% 
+13.2% 
Nickel (LME)-22.6726.6-3.0% -13.8%  Aluminium (LME)+0.4 90.1 +0.4% +1.9%Copper (LME)+1.5 309.6 +0.5%
+4.1% 
Zinc (LME)-1.299.8-1.2% -3.8%  Silver-0.418.3-2.0%+9.5% Sugar+0.5 22.2 +2.1%
+0.4% 
 
 
Dual Listed Companies (DLC’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
NWS (US)-0.52 -0.04
+13.7 c
15.11
-6.5 c 
RIO (UK)95.00 0.03
+30.9 c
55.94
-1261.5 c 
BLT (BHP UK)29.50 0.02
+18.6 c
33.75
-664.2 c 
BXB (UK)-2.25 -0.01
+3.6 c
6.50
-5.6 c 
American Depository Receipts (ADR’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
BHP (US)-2.82 -0.04
+74.7 c
41.21
+81.6 c
AWC (US)-0.40 -0.07
+5.7 c
1.56
+2.1 c
TLS (US)-0.23 -0.01
+15.4 c
3.40
+0.8 c
ANZ (US)-1.27 -0.06
+19.4 c
21.42
+22.7 c
WBC (US)-7.91 -0.07
+105.8 c
23.36
+22.7 c
NAB (US)-1.41 -0.05
+24.9 c
27.47
+46.4 c
LGL (US)-2.21 -0.06
+32.4 c
3.57
+0.4 c
RMD (US)-1.83 -0.04
+50.4 c
5.56
-5.9 c 
JHX (US)-1.64 -0.04
+36.0 c
7.95
+12.3 c
PDN (CAN)0.02 0.01
+3.9 c
4.07
+8.4 c
Overnight Commentary
United States Commentary
 
The sell off from the Dubai World news was not as dramatic in the US, as it was either here or across UK/Europe. Lows were set onthe open in a shortened session and although risk aversion was certainly the trade of the day and all Dow constituents finished in thered, the 154pt deficit was arguably not as bad as most had been bracing for. Elsewhere, the Nasdaq and S&P both gave back 1.7%.
Financials
- Not surprisingly financials were among the hardest hit and within the space, investment banks felt most of the pain. BofAdown 3%(Dow's worst), Morgan Stanley dropped 2.9%,Goldmans 2.8% and JP's finished 2% lower as the market attempted to quantifythe US financial sectors exposure to Dubai World.
Cyclicals
- Resource stocks were the other big loser behind the banks, Alcoa off nearly 3% on the back of a tough night on the LMEand a general aversion for cyclical exposure. Exxon and Chevron followed the oil price lower, down 2.1% and 1.9% respectively andtwo of the larger point takers from the Dow.
Market Barometers
- Filling the rest of the gaps in the Dow's bottom 10, the bellwethers viewed as a gauge of US economic healthgave back more ground. Caterpillar down 2.7%, Dupont 2.1%, HP and Microsoft down 2% and 1.9% respectively.
FX/Bonds
- A reasonably clear flight to safety on Friday, yields on the 2&10yr down c6pbs and 3.5bps for the 30yr and although it washardly a rush to buy USD's, there was a noted absence of any real selling, the DXY index stable and the AUD trading sub 91c.
United Kingdom & Europe Commentary
Markets found their feet on Friday night as the concerns over Dubai's attempt to delay its debt payments abated. Banks led the wayafter UK Prime Minister said that he was confident that the debt issues in Dubai would be contained.
Financials
- The UAE central bank said it "stands behind" the countries local and foreign banks, which are obviously facing lossesfrom Dubai Worlds possible default. The banks with exposure to the region did find some support with RBS leading the way rallying5.2%.
Property
- Luxury home sales in central London rose on an annual basis for the first time in 17 months. There is a suggestion that therally is being fuelled more by a lack of supply than an overwhelming demand profile. Positive news regardless.
Retail
- DSG International fell 1.4% after a broker lowered its recommendation for the UK's largest consumer-electronics retailer to"sell" from "neutral" citing "weak supply chain positioning and a high fixed cost base"
Commodites Commentary
Copper futures fell the most in four weeks and the oil price was also weaker , giving up 2.5%. The weakness is the result of thenervousness that is still present from the Dubai situation and whilst the financial sector experienced some recovery in Europe it willlikely take a little longer for the USD to move past the negative sentiment.
 
 
SPI Commentary
The SPI traded down 122pts to 4596 on Friday. Overnight the SPI traded up 37pts to 4633.
SPI Intraday SPI Daily
 
*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS 
Upcoming Economic Events for the Week
MondayAUS
TDMI inflation gauge, HIA new home sales, RBA private sector credit, Wages bill, small business profits, companyprofits, real business sales, real business inventories
US
Chicago PMI, Milwaukee NAPM, Dallas Fed Manufacturing
TuesdayAUS
AIG/PWC manufacturing PMI, Building approvals, Real public final demand, RBA cash rate decision
US
ISM, Construction spending, Pending home sales
WednesdayAUSUS
ADP employment report
ThursdayAUS
Nominal retail trade
US
Non farm productivity
FridayAUSUS
Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, average weekly hours, factory orders
*Dates are indicative only and may change 
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