Approaches To Global Politics In The Twenty-First Century

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Approaches to Global Politics in the Twenty-First Century: A Review Essay
Author(s): Stuart J. Kaufman
Source: International Studies Review, Vol. 1, No. 2, Prospects for International Relations:
Conjectures about the Next Millennium, (Summer, 1999), pp. 193-221
Published by: Blackwell Publishing on behalf of The International Studies Association
Stable URL:http://www.jstor.org/stable/3186385
Accessed: 05/08/2008 20:25

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A pproaches

t o

G lob al

P olit ics

i n

t h e

T w en t y -firstC en t u ry:

A

R ev iew

E ssay

S t u artJ .K au fm an '

The con trib u tion st o t h is v olu m e focu so n

fo u r cen traldriv in g

fo r c e si n

the in tern ation alsystem : realpolitik,t he pu rsu it of

pow er;econ om ic syst em s fo r p u rsu in gw ealt h; social t echn ologies fo r m ain t ain in go r d e r ;an d iden titiest hat defin egrou p actors. E xam in in gt h eeffect so f t h ese forcesgen eratesaran ge o fp o s s i -

b le projection sfor t he fu t u re of w orld polit ics-glob al

w aro r

p e a c e ,p r o s p e r i t yor econ om ic c o l l a p s e , social order or v iolen t

b reakdow n . M ost

of the con trib u tors here ten d

toward the

opt im ist ic en do f thesp ect ru m , t hou ghfo r differen t reason s:

D av idW ilkin son forecast sa st ab leu n ipolar b alan ceo fpow er, for

exam ple,w h ile G eorgeM odelskian dW illiam T hom psonf o r e s e e

t he ev olu t ion

ofa st ab le d em ocrat icp e a c e ;on ly R ob ert D en e- m arksu g g est s apoten tiallyhighl i k e l i h o o d ofhegem on ic w ari n t hetw en ty-firstcen tu ry.W h ile m ost agreet hat in creasin gglob al- izat ionist ran sform in gw orldp o l i t i c s , t h e y d i s a g r e eo n t h e effect s b ecau se t h ose effect sw ill depen d on

howp e o p l e react -w het her

theyd ev ise effect iv e socialtechn ologies t o m an ageglob alization ,

an d w het hert hey adopt cooperat iv e or hostile in terpretation so f

t heiriden t it ies.

In tern ation al

relation s(IR ) scholarsgen erally do n ot m akepredict ion s.

A lt hou ghm ost aspireeit hert o scien t ificr i g o ro r t o policy relev an ce-b oth

of w hich requ ireprediction -IR

t h eorist sgen erallyrem ain con ten t t o cu lt i- v a t e n a r r o w e r t h e o r e t i c a l g a r d e n s ,f o c u s i n g o nexplan ation ,n otprediction .W hen con fron tedw ith theirfailu reev en

t o t ry t oe x p l a i n m ajor ev en t s lik et heb reak u p

'T h ev iew se x p r e s s e d aret h e a u t h o r ' s a n d d on ot n e c e s s a r i l y r e p r e s e n t

t h o se o ft he

N ation alS ecu rit yC ou n cil,theU .S .gov ern m en t,

o ran y o t h e rorgan ization .

?

1999 In tern ation al

S t u d ies A ssociat ion

P u b lish edb y B lack w ellP u b lish ers,3 5 0 M ain St reet ,M aiden ,M A0 2 1 4 8 ,U SA,an d1 0 8C ow ley R oad,O xford O X 41 J F , U K .

S t u artJ .K au fm an

o ft he Sov iet U n ion , t oo m an y fall b acko n

t h e self-sat isfiedassert ion t h at su ch

ev en t sa r e " ou t sid et het h e o r y 's dom ain "(W ohlforth1 9 9 8 ).

M y fellow con t rib u t orst o t h is special i s s u eo f I n t e r n a t i o n a lS t u d i e sR ev iew

arem adeof st ern erst u ff.R ecogn izin g t h atif su ch cru cialev en t s are ou t sid e t h e

dom ain

of in tern ation alt h e o r y ,t hen

the dom ain

is too n arrow ,t hey b old ly

expan di ti n

all d irect ion s.T hey b road en tradition alp o l i t i c a l orp o l i t i c a l econ -

om y an alysisb y qu estion in gsu chassu m ption s as t hecen t ralit yo f t hest at e,t he

v iab ilit yof t hew orldecon om y, an d t he n at u reo fhegem on y.T hey r e a c hb eyon d

t h e t r a d i t i o n a l f o c u s o nthet w en t iet h -cen t u ryW est to exam in ecen tu rieso fex p e-

rien cefr o m in tern ation alsyst em sarou n dt he glob e. T hey expan dm on ocau sal

explan ation sb asedo n

realpolit ikor econ om ics t o con sidert he im port an ceo f

techn ology,organ ization ,iden tity,theen v iron m en t,an do t h e r v ariab les.An da l l ,

aft ercon siderin gt h e cau t ion s offeredb yC harlesD oran , st ill v en t u reat least som e su ggestion sif n ot det ailed prediction sab ou t t he fu t u reof w orldp o l i t i c s . T h eseat t em pt sn eed ed t o b e m ade, an dthey are m adesk illfu lly, b lazin gat rail for ot herst o follow .

M y t ask is t o dev elop som e con clu sion sfr o m t hese disparateargu m en ts.I

b egin

b y con siderin gt he explan atoryv ariab lesthe au thorsu se, ou tlin in gt he

ran geof effect s an d possib leou t com es.It hen exam in e e a c hargu m en t,focu sin g

o n

t hek ey driv in g forces each assu m esan d theprediction se a c h su ggests.I also

l o o kf o rim port an t i s s u e st hat a r e o v e r l o o k e d .T h ese art iclesi n

m ost cases b u ild

o nlon gs e r i e s o f p rev iou sp u b l i c a t i o n s b yt he au t hors.I t h ereforep a y som eat t en -

t ion

to thosee a r l i e r worksi n

elu cidatin g t he argu m en ts.I then

p l a c et he

argu m en tssid eb y side to search out sim ilarit ies an d differen ces across t he

v ariou sa p p r o a c h e s,an dcon clu dew ithsom esu ggestion sab ou th o w t hestren gths

o fthe differen ta p p r o a c h e sm ight b e com b in edi n

an alyzin gpossib lefu t u res.

C AUSE S

A N D

C O N SE Q U E N C E S

O FIN T E R N A T IO N A L

SY STE M S

A n y t heoryofin tern ation alp o l i t i c s m u st st artw it h som e assu m ption sab ou tt he

m ost im port an tfo r c e s shapin g w orldp o l i t i c s . T he poin to f su ch at h e o r y ,I

assu m e,is t oh e l pe x p l a i nk ey ou t com es-w ar

o rp e a c e ,p r o s p e r i t y o rpov ert y, o r d e ror chaos.T he coreof t hean alysis m u stb e how thesecen traldriv in gfo r c e s cau set he ou t com es.

C en t ralD riv in g F orces

T he fou rm ost com m on can didatesfor t he cen t raldriv in gforceso f w orldp o l i t i c s are t hep u rsu it orprot ect iono fpow er,w e a l t h , o r d e r ,an did en t it y( c f . K au fm an 1 9 9 7 ).In tern ation al

syst em sd ifferaccordin gto how theseg o a l sa r edefin edan d p u rsu ed ;t h e o r i e s d i ffe raccordin gt ow h icho f t h esep u rsu it sis con sid eredm ost im port an ti n

shapin gw orldp o l i t i c s .T hes o p h i s t i c a t e dau t horsi n

t h is collect ion

allin corporatesev eraloft h ese fact orsi n

t h eiran alyses.

1 9 4

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