4274 Don Bay Hoat Dong Va Don

Chng trnh Giang day Kinh te Fulbright Phan tch tai chnh Bai giang 8
Nien khoa 2004-2005 Bai giang

Nguyen Minh Kieu 11/06/02

1
Bai 8:

ON BAY HOAT ONG VA ON BAY TAI CHNH

Trong co hoc chung fa da quon fhuoc voI khaI nIom don bay nhu Ia cong cu do
khuoch daI Iuc nham bIon mof Iuc nho fhanh mof Iuc Ion hon fac dong vao vaf fho
chung fa can djch chuyon. Trong kInh doanh nguoI fa muon fhuaf ngu don bay
am chI vIoc su dung chI ph co djnh |fIxod cosfs) do gIa fang kha nang sInh IoI cua
cong fy. Trong baI nay chung fa so kham pha nhung nguyon Iy su dung don bay
frong kInh doanh, bao gom don bay hoaf dong |oporafIng Iovorago) va don bay faI
chnh |fInancIaI Iovorago).

1. Oon buy hout dong

1.1 Pban ticb anb buong cua Jon bay boat Jong

on bay hoaf dong |oporafIng Iovorago) Ia muc do su dung chI ph hoaf dong co
djnh cua cong fy. O day chung fa chI phan fch frong ngan han boI v frong daI
han faf ca cac chI ph dou fhay doI.
ChI ph co djnh Ia chI ph khong fhay doI khI so Iuong fhay doI. Ch ph co
djnh co fho ko ra bao gom cac IoaI chI ph nhu khau hao, bao hIom, mof bo phan
chI ph dIon nuoc va mof bo phan chI ph quan Iy.
ChI ph bIon doI Ia chI ph fhay doI khI so Iuong fhay doI, chang han chI
ph nguyon vaf IIou, Iao dong fruc fIop, mof phan chI ph dIon nuoc, hoa hong ban
hang, mof phan chI ph quan Iy hanh chnh.
Trong kInh doanh, chung fa dau fu chI ph co djnh voI hy vong so Iuong
fIou fhu so fao ra doanh fhu du Ion do frang fraI chI ph co djnh va chI ph bIon
doI. CIong nhu chIoc don bay frong co hoc, su hIon dIon cua chI ph hoaf dong co
djnh gay ra su fhay doI frong so Iuong fIou fhu do khuoch daI su fhay doI IoI
nhuan |hoac Io). o mInh hoa dIou nay chung fa xom xof v du cho o bang 8.1
frang 2.
Kof qua phan fch anh huong cua don bay hoaf dong fho hIon o phan .
oI voI moI cong fy dou co doanh fhu va chI ph bIon doI fang 50% frong khI chI
ph co djnh khong fhay doI. Taf ca cac cong fy dou cho fhay co su anh huong cua
don bay hoaf dong fho hIon o cho doanh fhu chI fang 50% nhung IoI nhuan fang
voI foc do Ion hon, cu fho Ia 400, 100 va 330% Ian Iuof doI voI cong fy I, V va
cong fy 2I.



2
Bung 8.1: Anh huong cua don bay hoaf dong Ion IoI nhuan
Cong ty F Cong ty V Cong ty 2F
Phun A: Truoc khI fhay doI doanh fhu
oanh fhu 10.000$ 11.000$ 19.500$
ChI ph hoaf dong
ChI ph co djnh 7.000 2.000 14.000
ChI ph bIon doI 2.000 7.000 3.000
IoI nhuan hoaf dong |IT) 1.000 2.000 2.500
Ty so don bay hoaf dong
ChI ph co djnh/ fong chI ph 0,78 0,22 0,82
ChI ph co djnh/ doanh fhu 0,70 0,18 0,72
Phun B: Sau khI doanh fhu fang 50% frong nhung nam ko fIop
oanh fhu 15.000$ 16.500$ 29.250$
ChI ph hoaf dong
ChI ph co djnh 7.000 2.000 14.000
ChI ph bIon doI 3.000 10.500 4.500
IoI nhuan hoaf dong |IT) 5.000 4.000 10.750
Phun trum thuy do KBT 400% 100% 330%
|IT
f
IT
f -1
)/ IT
f -1

1.2 Pban ticb boa oon

Phan fch hoa von Ia ky fhuaf phan fch moI quan ho gIua chI ph co djnh, chI ph
bIon doI, IoI nhuan va so Iuong fIou fhu. o mInh hoa ky fhuaf phan fch hoa von,
chung fa Iay v du sau day: CIa su cong fy san xuaf xo dap co don gIa ban Ia 50$,
chI ph co djnh hang nam Ia 100.000$ va chI ph bIon doI Ia 25$/ don vj. Chung fa
so phan fch quan ho gIua fong chI ph hoaf dong va fong doanh fhu. Hnh 8.1
|frang 3) mo fa quan ho gIua fong doanh fhu, fong chI ph hoaf dong va IoI nhuan
fuong ung voI fung muc san Iuong va so Iuong fIou fhu. Can Iuu y, o day chung fa
chI quan fam don chI ph hoaf dong non IoI nhuan o day duoc xac djnh Ia IoI
nhuan hoaf dong fruoc fhuo. Nhu vay, IaI no vay va co fuc uu daI khong IIon quan
khI phan fch don bay hoaf dong. Tuy nhIon khI phan fch don bay faI chnh
|phan sau) chung fa so xom xof van do nay.



3
HInh 8.1: Phan fch hoa von

Tron hnh 8.1, dIom gIao nhau gIua 2 duong fhang fong doanh fhu va chI ph Ia
dIom hoa von |broak-ovon poInf) v o dIom nay doanh fhu bang chI ph va, do do,
IoI nhuan bang 0. Tron hnh vo 8.1 dIom hoa von chnh Ia dIom co san Iuong Ia
4000. Vo maf foan hoc, do fm dIom hoa von chung fa fhuc hIon nhu sau:

af IT = IoI nuan fruoc fhuo va IaI |IoI nhuan hoaf dong)
P = don gIa ban
V = bIon ph don vj
|P V) = IaI gop
Q = so Iuong san xuaf va fIou fhu
I = djnh ph
Q
= so Iuong hoa von

O dIom hoa von fh doanh fhu bang chI ph va IT bang 0. o do:

PQ
= VQ
+ I
|P V)Q
= I
Q
= I/ |P V) |8.1)

O v du fron nou ap dung cong fhuc |8.1), chung fa so co san Iuong hoa von Q
=
100.000/ |50 25) = 4.000 don vj. Nou so Iuong fIou fhu vuof qua dIom hoa von
So lng san xuat va tieu thu
Doanh thu va chi ph (1000$)
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
nh ph
Bien ph
Doanh thu
Tong chi ph


4
|4000 don vj) fh so co IoI nhuan, nguoc IaI nou so Iuong fIou fhu duoI muc hoa von
fh cong fy bj Io.
Iom hoa von Q
nhu vua xac djnh fron day fho hIon san Iuong hoa von.
Muon bIof doanh fhu hoa von, chung fa Iay san Iuong hoa von nhan voI don gIa
ban. Trong v du fron san Iuong hoa von Q
= 4000 va don gIa ban P = 50$, do do

doanh fhu hoa von so Ia 50 x 4000 = 200.000$.

1.J o bay boat Jong (DOL

Nhu da phan fch o phan fruoc, chung fa fhay rang duoI fac dong cua don bay hoaf
dong mof su fhay doI frong so Iuong hang ban dua don kof qua IoI nhuan |hoac Io)
gIa fang voI foc do Ion hon. o do Iuong muc do fac dong cua don bay hoaf dong,
nguoI fa su dung chI fIou Jo bay boat Jong |dogroo of oporafIng Iovorago OI).
o bay hoaf dong |OI) duoc djnh nghIa nhu Ia phan fram fhay doI cua IoI nhuan
hoaf dong so voI phan fram fhay doI cua san Iuong |hoac doanh fhu). o do:

= |8.2)

Can Iuu y rang do bay co fho khac nhau o nhung muc san Iuong |hoac doanh fhu)
khac nhau. o do, khI noI don do bay chung fa non chI ro do bay o muc san Iuong
Q nao do.
Cong fhuc |8.2) fron day raf can fhIof do djnh nghIa va hIou duoc do bay
hoaf dong nhung raf kho fnh foan fron fhuc fo do kho fhu fhap duoc so IIou
IT. o do dang fnh foan OI, chung fa fhuc hIon mof so bIon doI. Iof rang
IaI gop bang doanh fhu fru chI ph, fa co:

IT = PQ |VQ + I) = PQ VQ I = Q|P V) I

oI v don gIa ban P va djnh ph I Ia co djnh non IT = Q|P V). Nhu vay:

Thay vao cong fhuc |8.2), fa duoc:

o bay hoat ong
(DOL) mc san
lng Q (doanh thu S)
Phan tram thay oi li
nhuan hoat ong
Phan tram thay oi
san lng (hoac
doanh thu)
Q Q
EBIT EBIT
DOL
/
/
=
F V P Q
V P Q
EBIT
EBIT

=
) (
) (


5

ChIa fu va mau cua |8.3) cho |P V), cong fhuc |8.3) co fho vIof IaI fhanh:

Cong fhuc |8.3) va |8.4) dung do fnh do bay hoaf dong fhoo san Iuong Q. HaI cong
fhuc nay chI fhch hop doI voI nhung cong fy nao ma san pham co fnh don chIoc,
chang han nhu xo hoI hay may fnh. oI voI cong fy ma san pham da dang va
khong fho fnh fhanh don vj, chung fa su dung chI fIou do bay fhoo doanh fhu.
Cong fhuc fnh do bay fhoo doanh fhu nhu sau:

frong do S Ia doanh fhu va V Ia fong chI ph bIon doI.
Van dung cong fhuc |8.4) vao v du chung fa da xom xof fu dau baI don gIo,
chung fa co:

Nhu vay do bay hoaf dong o muc san Iuong Q = 5000 bang 5. Iou nay co nghIa Ia
g7 No co nghIa Ia fu muc san Iuong fIou fhu Ia 5000 don vj, cu moI phan fram
fhay doI san Iuong fIou fhu fh IoI nhuan hoaf dong so fhay doI 5 phan fram.
NgoaI ra can Iuu y rang, khI san Iuong fang fu 5000 Ion 6000 don vj fh do bay
hoaf dong gIam fu 5 xuong 3, nghIa Ia fu muc san Iuong Ia 6000 don vj, cu moI
phan fram fhay doI san Iuong fIou fhu fh IoI nhuan hoaf dong fhay doI 3 phan
fram. o do, ko fu dIom hoa von nou san Iuong cang fang fh do bay cang gIam.
F V P Q
V P Q
Q
Q
F V P Q
V P Q
Q
Q
F V P Q
V P Q
DOL
Q

=
) (
) (
) (
) ( ) (
) (
F V P Q
V P Q
DOL
Q

=
) (
) (
(8.3)
BE
Q
Q Q
Q
V P
F V P Q
V P
V P Q
DOL
=
) (
) (
) (
) (
(8.4)
EBIT
F EBIT
F V S
V S
DOL
S
+
=

= (8.5)
5
4000 5000
5000
5000
=
=
BE
Q Q
Q
DOL
3
4000 6000
6000
6000
=
=
BE
Q Q
Q
DOL


6

1.4 Quan bc giua Jo bay boat Jong oa Jicm boa oon

o fhay duoc moI quan ho gIua do bay hoaf dong va dIom hoa von chung Iap bang
fnh IoI nhuan va do bay hoaf dong o nhIou muc do san Iuong khac nhau. ang 8.2
duoI day cho chung fa fhay IoI nhuan va do bay hoaf dong o nhung muc do san
Iuong khac nhau.
Bung 8.2: IoI nhuan va do bay hoaf dong o nhung muc do san Iuong khac nhau
So luong sun xuut vu teu
thu (Q)
Lo nhuun hout dong
(KBT)
Oo buy hout dong (OOL)
0 - 100.000 0,00
1000 - 75.000 - 0,33
2000 - 50.000 - 1,00
3000 - 25.000 - 3,00
Q
= 4000 0 Khong xac djnh

5000 25.000 5,00
6000 50.000 3,00
7000 75.000 2,33
8000 100.000 2,00

ang 8.2 cho fhay rang nou san Iuong dI chuyon cang xa dIom hoa von fh IoI
nhuan hoaf dong hoac Io so cang Ion, nguoc IaI do bay hoaf dong |OI) cang nho.
Quan ho gIua san Iuong fIou fhu va IoI nhuan hoaf dong Ia quan ho fuyon fnh nhu
da fhay fron hnh vo 8.1. Hnh 8.2 duoI day so dIon fa quan ho gIua san Iuong fIou
fhu va do bay hoaf dong.

HInh 8.2: Quan ho gIua san Iuong fIou fhu va do bay hoaf dong

0
5
3
- 3
- 1
2
8000 4000 5000 6000
2000 3000
o bay hoat ong
So lng san xuat va tieu thu
1


7
Hnh 8.2 cung cap cho chung fa mof so nhan xof nhu sau:

o bay hoaf dong fIon don vo cuc khI so Iuong san xuaf va fIou fhu fIon dan
don dIom hoa von.
KhI so Iuong san xuaf va fIou fhu cang vuof xa dIom hoa von fh do bay so
fIon dan don 1.

1.6 Quan bc giua Jo bay boat Jong oa rui ro Joanb ngbicp

RuI ro doanh nghIop Ia ruI ro do nhung baf on phaf sInh frong hoaf dong cua
doanh nghIop khIon cho IoI nhuan hoaf dong gIam. Can chu y rang do bay hoaf
dong chI Ia mof bo phan cua ruI ro doanh nghIop. Cac you fo khac cua ruI ro doanh
nghIop Ia su fhay doI hay su baf on cua doanh fhu va chI ph san xuaf. ay Ia 2
you fo chnh cua ruI ro doanh nghIop, con don bay hoaf dong Iam khuoch daI su
anh huong cua cac you nay Ion IoI nhuan hoaf dong cua doanh nghIop. Tuy nhIon
ban fhan don bay hoaf dong khong phaI Ia nguon goc cua ruI ro, boI Io do bay cao
cung chang co y nghIa g ca nou nhu doanh fhu va co cau chI ph co djnh. o do, so
saI Iam nou nhu dong nghIa do bay hoaf dong voI ruI ro doanh nghIop, boI v caI
goc Ia su fhay doI doanh fhu va chI ph san xuaf, fuy nhIon, do bay hoaf dong co
fac dung khuoch daI su fhay doI cua IoI nhuan va, do do, khuoch daI ruI ro doanh
nghIop.
Tu gIac do nay, co fho xom do bay hoaf dong nhu Ia mof dang ruI ro fIom
an, no chI fro fhanh ruI ro hoaf dong khI nao xuaf hIon su bIon dong doanh fhu va
chI ph san xuaf.

1.6 Y ngba cua Jo bay boat Jong Joi ooi quan trj tai cbinb

Sau khI nghIon cuu vo don bay hoaf dong, chung fa fhu daf ra cau hoI: HIou bIof
vo do bay cua cong fy co ch IoI fho nao doI voI gIam doc faI chnh7 Ia gIam doc
faI chnh, ban can bIof fruoc xom su fhay doI doanh fhu so anh huong fho nao don
IoI nhuan hoaf dong. o bay hoaf dong chnh Ia cong cu gIup ban fra IoI cau hoI
nay. oI khI bIof fruoc do bay hoaf dong, cong fy co fho do dang hon frong vIoc
quyof djnh chnh sach doanh fhu va chI ph cua mnh. Nhung nhn chung, cong fy
khong fhch hoaf dong duoI dIou kIon do bay hoaf dong cao boI v frong fnh
huong nhu vay chI can mof su suf gIam nho doanh fhu cung do dan don Io frong
hoaf dong. Iou nay duoc mInh chung noI baf nhaf boI fruong hop cua AmorIcan
AIrIInos sau su kIon khung bo ngay 11/09. Chung fa bIof nganh hang khong Ia
nganh co do bay hoaf dong cao do dac fhu cua nganh nay Ia chI ph co djnh raf
Ion. oI vay, khI su kIon 11/09 xay ra do bay cao da khuoch daI ruI ro doanh
nghIop Ion cuc do khIon cho doanh nghIop phaI fhua Io raf Ion va Iam vao fnh
frang pha san nhu hIon nay.



8
2. Oon buy tu chInh

on bay hoaf dong IIon quan don vIoc su dung chI ph co djnh frong hoaf dong cua
cong fy, nhu da xom xof frong phan 1. Trong phan 2 nay chung fa so nghIon cuu
don bay faI chnh. on bay faI chnh |fInancIaI Iovorago) IIon quan don vIoc su
dung cac nguon faI fro co chI ph co djnh. on bay tai cbinb Juoc Jjnb ngba nbu
/a muc Jo tbco Jo cac cbung kboan co tbu nbap co Jjnb (no oa co pbicu uu Jai
Juoc su Jung trong co cau nguon oon cua cong ty.
Co mof dIou khac bIof Iy fhu gIua don bay hoaf dong va don bay faI chnh
Ia cong fy co fho Iua chon don bay faI chnh frong khI khong fho Iua chon don bay
hoaf dong. on bay hoaf dong do dac dIom hoaf dong cua cong fy quyof djnh,
chang han cong fy hoaf dong frong nganh hang khong va Iuyon fhop co don bay
hoaf dong cao frong khI cong fy hoaf dong frong nganh djch vu nhu fu van va du
Ijch co don bay hoaf dong fhap. on bay faI chnh fh khac. Khong co cong fy nao
bj op buoc phaI su dung no va co phIou uu daI do faI fro cho hoaf dong cua mnh
ma fhay vao do cong fy co fho su dung nguon von fu vIoc phaf hanh co phIou
fhuong. Tho nhung fron fhuc fo f khI co cong fy nao khong su dung don bay faI
chnh. Vay, Iy do g khIon cong fy su dung don bay faI chnh7
Cong fy su dung don bay faI chnh voI hy vong Ia so gIa fang duoc IoI
nhuan cho co dong fhuong. Nou su dung phu hop, cong fy co fho dung cac nguon
von co chI ph co djnh, bang cach phaf hanh fraI phIou va co phIou uu daI, do fao
ra IoI nhuan Ion hon chI ph fra cho vIoc huy dong von co IoI fuc co djnh. Phan IoI
nhuan con IaI so fhuoc vo co dong fhuong. Iou nay so duoc fho hIon ro hon khI
chung fa phan fch quan ho gIua IoI nhuan fruoc fhuo va IaI |IT) va IoI nhuan
fron co phan |PS).

2.1 Pban ticb quan bc EBIT oa EP8

Phan fch quan ho IT-PS Ia phan fch su anh huong cua nhung phuong an faI
fro khac nhau doI voI IoI nhuan fron co phan. Tu su phan fch nay, chung fa so
fm mof dIom bang quan |IndIfforonf poInf), fuc Ia dIom cua IT ma o do cac
phuong an faI fro dou mang IaI PS nhu nhau. o mInh hoa phan fch quan ho
IT-PS, chung fa xom xof v du sau day:

Cong fy CTC co nguon von daI han 10 frIou !S hoan foan fu nguon von co phan
fhong fhuong. Cong fy can huy dong fhom 5 frIou !S cho vIoc mo rong san xuaf
kInh doanh. Cong fy xom xof 3 phuong an huy dong von: |1) phaf hanh co phIou
fhuong, |2) phaf hanh fraI phIou voI IaI suaf 12%, hoac |3) phaf hanh co phIou uu
daI voI co fuc 11%. IoI nhuan fruoc fhuo va IaI |IT) hang nam cua cong fy hIon
faI Ia 1,5 frIou !S nhung nou mo rong san xuaf kInh doanh cong fy ky vong
IT so fang don 2,7 frIou !S. Thuo fhu nhap cong fy Ia 40% va cong fy hIon co
200.000 co phan. Nou su dung phuong an fhu nhaf, cong fy co fho ban fhom
100.000 co phan voI gIa 50!S/co phan do huy dong fhom 5 frIou !S.


9
Muc fIou cua chung fa Ia phan fch do fm ra dIom bang quan, fuc Ia dIom
ma o do cac phuong an faI fro dou mang IaI PS nhu nhau. Truoc hof, chung fa
xac djnh PS fhoo cong fhuc sau:

Trong do I = IaI suaf hang nam phaI fra
P = co fuc hang nam phaI fra
f = fhuo suaf fhuo fhu nhap cong fy
NS = so Iuong co phan fhong fhuong

o xac djnh PS cua cong fy fhoo 3 phuong an faI fro, chung fa Iap bang fnh
foan 8.3 duoI day:

Bung 8.3: ang fnh PS fhoo 3 phuong an faI fro
Phuong un tu tro
Co phIou fhuong No Co phIou uu daI
IoI nhuan fruoc fhuo va IaI |IT) 2.700.000$ 2.700.000$ 2.700.000$
IaI suaf |I) - 600.000 -
IoI nhuan fruoc fhuo |T) 2.700.000 2.100.000 2.700.000
Thuo fhu nhap |T x f) 1.080.000 840.000 1.080.000
IoI nhuan sau fhuo |AT) 1.620.000 1.260.000 1.620.000
Co fuc co phIou uu daI |P) - - 550.000
IoI nhuan danh cho co dong fhuong 1.620.000 1.260.000 1.070.000
So Iuong co phan |NS) 300.000 200.000 200.000
Lo nhuun tren co phun (KPS) 5.40 6.30 5.35

ua vao kof qua bang fnh foan fron day chung fa co fho xac djnh dIom bang quan
bang mof frong 2 phuong phap: phuong phap hnh hoc va phuong phap daI so.

Xuc d{nh dem bung quun bung phuong phup hInh hoc

Su dung do fhj bIou dIon quan ho gIua IT va PS chung fa co fho fm ra duoc
dIom bang quan, fuc Ia dIom gIao nhau gIua cac phuong an faI fro o do IT fhoo
baf ky phuong an nao cung mang IaI PS nhu nhau. o Iam dIou nay chung fa xay
dung do fhj nhu fron hnh vo 8.3 |frang 10). oI voI moI phuong an, chung fa Ian
Iuof vo duong fhang phan anh quan ho gIua PS voI faf ca cac dIom cua IT.
Truoc hof fron do fhj hnh 8.3 chung fa chon cac dIom co hoanh do Ia 2,7
va fung do Ian Iuof Ia 5,40; 6,30 va 5,35 |5,40 va 5,35 gan nhau non fron do fhj
chung gan nhu frung nhau). Ko don chung fa fm dIom fhu haI bang cach Ian Iuof
cho PS = 0 do fm ra IT fuong ung.

Voi pbuong an tai tro bang co pbicu tbuong
|IT I)|1 f) P = 0
NS
PD t I EBIT
EPS

=
) 1 )( (
(8.6)


10
|IT 0)|1 0,4) 0 = 0
|IT)0,6 = 0
IT = 0
NoI haI dIom co foa do |0, 0) va |2,7, 5,4) chung fa co duoc duong fhang phan anh
PS fhoo phuong an faI fro bang co phIou fhong fhuong.
Voi pbuong an tai tro bang no
|IT I)|1 f) P = 0
|IT 600.000)|1 0,4) 0 = 0
|IT)0,6 360.000 = 0
IT = 360.000/0,6 = 600.000$
NoI haI dIom co foa do |0,6, 0) va |2,7, 6,3) chung fa co duoc duong fhang phan
anh PS fhoo phuong an faI fro bang no.
Voi pbuong an tai tro bang co pbicu uu Jai
|IT I)|1 f) P = 0
|IT 0)|1 0,4) 550.000 = 0
|IT)0,6 550.000 = 0
IT = 550.000/0,6 = 916.667$
NoI haI dIom co foa do |0,916, 0) va |2,7, 5,35) chung fa co duoc duong fhang phan
anh PS fhoo phuong an faI fro bang co phIou uu daI.

HInh 8.3: o fhj xac djnh dIom bang quan fhoo 3 phuong an

Tron hnh vo 8.3, haI dIom caf nhau gIua duong fhang co phIou fhuong voI duong
fhang no va co phIou uu daI cho chung fa haI dIom bang quan v o dIom do cac
phuong an faI fro dou dom IaI cung PS.
EPS ($)
EBIT (trieu $)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1 2 3 4
N CP u ai
CP thng


11

Xac Jjnb Jicm bang quan bang pbuong pbap Jai so

Vo maf daI so, chung fa co fho xac djnh dIom bang quan bang cach ap dung cong
fhuc |8.6) fnh PS fhoo IT cho moI phuong an, sau do fhIof Iap phuong frnh
can bang nhu sau:

Trong do IT
1,2
= IT bang quan gIua 2 phuong an faI fro 1 va 2
I
1
, I
2
= IaI phaI fra hang nam ung voI phuong an faI fro 1 va 2
P
1
, P
2
= co fuc phaI fra hang nam fhoo phuong an faI fro 1 va 2
f = fhuo suaf fhuo fhu nhap cong fy
NS
1
, NS
2
= so co phan fhong fhuong ung voI phuong an 1 va 2

Trong v du dang xom xof, chung fa fm dIom bang quan gIua haI phuong an faI
fro bang no va co phIou fhuong nhu sau:

|IT
1,2
)|0,6)|200.000) = |IT
1,2
)|0,6)|300.000) |0,6)|600.000)|300.000)
|IT
1,2
)|60.000) = 108.000.000.000
IT
1,2
= 1.800.000$

Thuc hIon fuong fu, chung fa co fho fm duoc dIom bang quan gIua haI phuong faI
fro bang co phIou fhuong va co phIou uu daI Ia 2,75 frIou !S.

Y ngba cua Jicm bang quan

Tu phuong phap hnh hoc cung nhu phuong phap daI so chung fa fm fhay dIom
bang quan gIua 2 phuong an faI fro bang no va co phIou fhuong Ia 1,8 frIou !S.
Iou nay co nghIa g7 Nou IT fhap hon dIom bang quan fh phuong an faI fro
bang co phIou fhuong fao ra duoc PS cao hon phuong an faI fro bang no, nhung
nou IT vuof qua dIom bang quan fh phuong an faI fro bang no mang IaI PS
cao hon phuong an faI fro bang co phIou fhuong.
Tuong fu dIom bang quan gIua 2 phuong an faI fro bang co phIou fhuong va
co phIou uu daI Ia 2,75 frIou !S. Nou IT nam duoI dIom nay fh phuong an faI
fro bang co phIou fhuong fao ra PS cao hon phuong an faI fro bang co phIou uu
2
2 2 2 , 1
1
1 1 2 , 1
) 1 )( ( ) 1 )( (
NS
PD t I EBIT
NS
PD t I EBIT
=

(8.7)
000 . 200
0 ) 4 , 0 1 )( 000 . 600 (
000 . 300
0 ) 4 , 0 1 )( 0 (
2 , 1 2 , 1

=
EBIT EBIT
Tai tr bang co phieu thng Tai tr bang n


12
daI, nhung nou IT vuof qua dIom bang quan fh phuong an faI fro bang co phIou
uu daI mang IaI PS cao hon phuong an faI fro bang co phIou fhuong.

2.2 o bay tai cbinb

o bay faI chnh |dogroo of fInancIaI Iovorago II) Ia mof chI fIou djnh Iuong
dung do do Iuong muc do bIon dong cua PS khI IT fhay doI. o bay faI chnh
o mof muc do IT nao do duoc xac djnh nhu Ia phan fram fhay doI cua PS khI
IT fhay doI 1 phan fram. o do:

=

Tu cong fhuc |8.6), chung fa da bIof PS = |IT I)|1 f) P|/ NS va v I va
P Ia hang so non I va P bang 0.

ChIa ca fu va mau so cho |1 f), fa duoc:

o bay tai chnh (DFL) mc
EBIT $
Phan tram thay oi cua EPS

Phan tram thay oi cua EBIT
EBIT EBIT
EPS EPS
EBIT
EPS
DFL
EBIT
/
/
%
%
=
NS
t EBIT
NS
PD t I EBIT
EPS
) 1 ( ) 1 )( (
=

=
PD t I EBIT
t EBIT
NS
PD t I EBIT
NS
t EBIT
EPS
EPS

=

=
) 1 )( (
) 1 (
) 1 )( (
) 1 (
PD t I EBIT
t EBIT
EBIT
EBIT
PD t I EBIT
t EBIT
EBIT
EBIT
PD t I EBIT
t EBIT
DFL
EBIT

=
) 1 )( (
) 1 (
) 1 )( (
) 1 ( ) 1 )( (
) 1 (
)] 1 /( [ t PD I EBIT
EBIT
DFL
EBIT

=
(8.8)


13
Truong hop dac bIof chI xof do bay faI chnh khI su dung phuong an faI fro bang
no fh P = 0. KhI do:

Trong v du chung fa dang xom xof, do bay faI chnh xac djnh fhoo cong fhuc |8.8)
nhu sau:

Dung pbuong an tai tro bang no

Dung pbuong an tai tro bang co pbicu uu Jai

Nhu vay, do bay faI chnh cua phuong an faI fro bang no Ia 1,29 con phuong an faI
fro bang co phIou daI Ia 1,51. Co 2 cau hoI daf ra o day:

o bay faI chnh cua phuong an dung co phIou uu daI Ion hon do bay faI
chnh cua phuong an dung no, dIou nay co y nghIa g7
KhI nao do bay faI chnh cua phuong an dung co phIou uu daI Ion hon do
bay faI chnh cua phuong an dung no7

o bay faI chnh cua phuong an dung co phIou uu daI |II = 1,51) Ion hon do bay
faI chnh cua phuong an dung no |II = 1,29) co nghIa Ia muc bIon dong cua PS
khI IT bIon dong doI voI phuong an faI fro bang co phIou uu daI cao hon muc
bIon dong cua PS khI IT bIon dong doI voI phuong an faI fro bang no. KhI nao
do bay faI chnh cua phuong an dung co phIou uu daI Ion hon hay nho do bay faI
chnh cua phuong an dung no7 Iou nay phu fhuoc vao van do fIof kIom fhuo do su
dung no so voI chI ph fra co fuc.
Nou chI ph fra co fuc |P) Ion hon phan chonh Ioch gIua IaI va fIof kIom
fhuo do su dung no |1 - f)I, fa co:
I t PD ) 1 ( > => I
t
PD
>
) 1 (
=> I EBIT
t
PD
EBIT + >
+
) 1 (

I EBIT
EBIT
DFL
EBIT
=
(8.9)
29 , 1
000 . 600 000 . 700 . 2
000 . 700 . 2
000 . 700 . 2
=
=
=
I EBIT
EBIT
DFL
EBIT
51 , 1
)] 4 , 0 1 /( 000 . 550 [ 000 . 700 . 2
000 . 700 . 2
)] 1 /( [
000 . 700 . 2
=

=

=
=
t PD I EBIT
EBIT
DFL
EBIT


14
t
PD
EBIT I EBIT
>
1

t
PD
EBIT
EBIT
I EBIT
EBIT
<
1
=> II
|no)
< II
|Cp uu daI)

Nou chI ph fra co fuc |P) nho hon phan chonh Ioch gIua IaI va fIof kIom fhuo do
su dung no |1 - f)I, fa co:

I t PD ) 1 ( < => I
t
PD
<
) 1 (
=> I EBIT
t
PD
EBIT + <
+
) 1 (

t
PD
EBIT I EBIT
<
1

t
PD
EBIT
EBIT
I EBIT
EBIT
>
1
=> II
|no)
> II
|Cp uu daI)

2.J o bay tai cbinb oa rui ro tai cbinb

RuI ro faI chnh Ia ruI ro bIon dong IoI nhuan fron co phan kof hop voI ruI ro maf
kha nang chI fra phaf sInh do cong fy su dung don bay faI chnh. KhI cong fy gIa
fang fy frong nguon faI fro co chI ph co djnh frong co cau nguon von fh dong fIon
fo co djnh chI ra do fra IaI hoac co fuc cung gIa fang. Kof qua Ia xac suaf maf kha
nang chI fra fang fhoo. o mInh hoa dIou nay, chung fa xom xof haI cong fy A va
dou co IT Ia 80.000$. Cong fy A khong su dung no frong khI cong fy co
phaf hanh 200.000$ fraI phIou vInh cuu voI IaI suaf 15%. Nhu vay hang nam cong
fy phaI fra 30.000$ fIon IaI. Nou IT cua haI cong fy gIam xuong con 20.000$
fh cong fy Iam vao fnh frang maf kha nang chI fra frong khI cong fy A fh
khong.
ay gIo chung fa so xom xof ruI ro do su bIon dong cua PS. CIa su IT
cua cong fy A va Ia bIon ngau nhIon co gIa frj ky vong Ia 80.000$ voI do Ioch
chuan Ia 40.000$. Cong fy A khong su dung no nhung co 4.000 co phan voI monh
gIa 10$/co phan cong fy co no phaf hanh fraI phIou frj gIa 200.000$ va 2.000 co
phan voI monh gIa 10$/co phan. ang 8.4 |frang 15) phan fch anh huong cua don
bay faI chnh don PS cua haI cong fy.



15
Bung 8.4: Anh huong cua don bay faI chnh Ion PS
Cong ty A Cong ty B
Phun A: Ou buo thong tn ve thu nhup
IoI nhuan fruoc fhuo va IaI ky vong |IT)| $80.000 $80.000
IaI |I) - 30.000
IoI nhuan fruoc fhuo ky vong |T)| 80.000 50.000
Thuo ky vong |T)xf| 32.000 20.000
IoI nhuan ky vong danh cho co dong fhuong |ACS)| 48.000 30.000
IoI nhuan fron co phan ky vong |PS)| 12 15
Phun B: Cuc bo phun ru ro
o Ioch chuan cua IoI nhuan fron co phan |
PS
)
1
6 12
Ho so bIon doI cua IT
IT
/|IT)| 0,50 0,50
II
|IT)=80.000
|IT)/|IT) I P /|1-f)| 1,00 1,60
Ho so bIon doI cua PS
PS
/|PS)| 0,50 0,80

Can Iuu y cach fnh do Ioch chuan cua PS. Chung fa bIof rang:

Nhn vao bang 8.4 chung fa fhay rang do su dung nguon faI fro fu no va IT
vuof qua dIom bang quan non cong fy co PS cao hon cong fy A nhung don bay
faI chnh cung Iam cho cong fy ruI ro hon cong fy A. Iou nay fho hIon o cho
cong fy co do Ioch chuan cua PS, do bay faI chnh va ho so bIon doI cua PS
dou cao hon cong fy A.

3. Tong hop don buy hout dong vu don buy tu chInh

KhI don bay faI chnh duoc su dung kof hop voI don bay hoaf dong chung fa co
don bay fong hop |CombInod or fofaI Iovorago). Nhu vay, don bay fong hop Ia vIoc
cong fy su dung kof hop ca chI ph hoaf dong va chI ph faI fro co djnh. KhI su
dung kof hop, don bay hoaf dong va don bay faI chnh co fac dong don PS khI so
Iuong fIou fhu fhay doI qua 2 buoc. uoc fhu nhaf, so Iuong fIou fhu fhay doI Iam
fhay doI IT |fac dong cua don bay hoaf dong). uoc fhu haI, IT fhay doI Iam
fhay doI PS |fac dong cua don bay faI chnh). o do Iuong muc do bIon dong cua
PS khI so Iuong fIou fhu fhay doI nguoI fa dung chI fIou do bay fong hop |dogroo
of fofaI Iovorago TI).
o bay fong hop cua cong fy o muc san Iuong |hoac doanh fhu) nao do bang
phan fram fhay doI cua PS fron phan fram fhay doI cua san Iuong |hoac doanh
fhu).

1
Nh rang vi bat ky bien ngau nhien X th
(a +bx)
= b
x

EBIT
NS
t
NS
PD
NS
PD t I EBIT
EPS
) 1 ( ) 1 )( (
+ =

=
12 40000
2000
) 4 , 0 1 ( ) 1 (
=
=
EBIT EPS
NS
t



16

=

Vo maf fnh foan, do bay fong hop |TI) chnh Ia fch so cua do bay hoaf dong voI
do bay faI chnh:

TI
Q don vj hoac S dong
= OI x II |8.10)

Thay cong fhuc |8.4 ), |8.5) va |8.8 ) vao |8.10) chung fa co duoc:

V du cong fy san xuaf xo dap co don gIa ban Ia 50$, chI ph bIon doI don vj Ia 25$
va chI ph co djnh Ia 100.000$. CIa su fhom rang cong fy su dung nguon faI fro fu
no vay 200.000$ voI IaI suaf 8%/nam va fhuo suaf fhuo fhu nhap cua cong fy Ia
40%. o bay fong hop o muc san Iuong 8000 chIoc Ia:

o bay tong hp mc san
lng Q n v (hoac S ong)
Phan tram thay oi cua EPS

Phan tram thay oi cua san
lng (hoac doanh thu)
)] 1 /( [ ) (
) (
t PD I F V P Q
V P Q
DTL
Q

=
)] 1 /( [ t PD I EBIT
F EBIT
DTL
S

+
=
(8.11)
(8.12)
38 , 2
000 . 16 000 . 100 ) 25 50 ( 8000
) 25 50 ( 8000
8000
=

= DTL

4274 Don Bay Hoat Dong Va Don

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4274 Don Bay Hoat Dong Va Don

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Chng trnh Giang day Kinh te Fulbright Phan tch tai chnh Bai giang 8

Nien khoa 2004-2005 Bai giang

= so Iuong hoa von

= 4000 va don gIa ban P = 50$, do do

= 4000 0 Khong xac djnh

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