THINK AGAIN:

MEDIA+TECH 2014
Michael J. Wolf | @mjw
2
9
HOURS
2
HOURS
3
HOURS
7
HOURS
5
HOURS
3
1
HOURS
ATTENTION IS NOT
A ZERO-SUM GAME
OTHER NIGHTTIME
ACTIVITIES
SLEEP
MULTITASKED TV,
DIGITAL AND
OTHER MEDIA
MULTITASKED WORK
WITH MEDIA
FOCUSED
WORK
MULTITASKED
AUDIO AND OTHER
PASSIVE MEDIA
COMMUTING, MEALS,
OTHER DAYTIME
DEDICATED TV
8
HOURS
2
HOURS
3
HOURS
7
HOURS
5
HOURS
3
HOURS
1
HOUR
1
HOUR
30 HOURS IN A 24 HOUR DAY
REALITY OF A TYPICAL PERSON
IN THE U.S. AVERAGE DAY
ATTENTION 15 MINUTES AT A TIME
SLEEP
FOCUSED WORK
MULTITASKED WORK
WITH MEDIA

COMMUTING, MEALS,
OTHER DAYTIME

DEDICATED TV
MULTI-TASKED TV, DIGITAL
AND OTHER MEDIA

MULTI-TASKED AUDIO AND
OTHER PASSIVE MEDIA

OTHER NIGHTTIME ACTIVITIES
A TYPICAL 30 HOUR DAY: 120 15 MIN. MOMENTS
$2.6 $1.5 $9.0 $1.5
$1.0 $.7 $.5
BILLION DOLLARS ON LESS THAN FIVE MINUTES
VALUATIONS IN BILLIONS
$.8 $.9
1
BILLION
1
BILLION
2
BILLION
1.7
BILLION
300
MILLION
WHO WILL SERVE
THE NEXT 4 BILLION USERS?
THE NEXT FOUR BILLION?
1.2
BILLION
1.2
BILLION
2.3
BILLION
2
BILLION
350
MILLION
$360-$730/YR $1,500-$20,000/YR $730-$1,500/YR LESS THAN $360/YR > $20,000/YR
SUBSIDIZE
ONBOARD OPTIMIZE
INTERNET
ACCESS
REPLACEMENT CYCLE TRENDS
HIGH
PRICE
LOW
REPLACEMENT CYCLE
SLOW FAST
SMART
TVS
SMART-
PHONES
PHABLETS
DESKTOP
LAPTOP
TABLETS
GAMING
CONSOLE
OPTIMIZE:
REVENUE PER USER
MEDIA+TECH ARPU
ANNUAL ARPU COMPARISON ACROSS SUBSCRIPTIONS, COMMERCE, MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT AND ADVERTISING
0 1 1 1 3 3 5 5 5 6 7 7 14 15 21
34 34
43 46 53
123
147
257
285
307
633
684
760
1227
1322
1405
1475
MEDIA+TECH ARPU: SUBSCRIPTIONS
0 1 5 6
123
147
633
684
760
1227
1322
1405
1475
MEDIA+TECH ARPU: COMMERCE
15
34
53
307
MEDIA+TECH ARPU: MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT
1 1
5
14
21
34
MEDIA+TECH ARPU: ADVERTISING
3 3
5
7 7
46
MORE LAYERS
TO BE A PLAYER
! ! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
! ! !
SEARCHING FOR VR
OCULUS RIFT GOOGLE CARDBOARD
SONY MORPHEUS DAFT PUNK
MEDIA+TECH LAYERS
MOBILE/VIDEO MESSAGING
VIDEO CONTENT
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE/BIG DATA
INTERNET OF THINGS
SEARCH
MARKETPLACE
DELIVERY SERVICE/ON-DEMAND
CONNECTIVITY
OS
HARDWARE
PAYMENT
STORAGE
ADS/TECH
MEDIA+TECH CAPABILITIES MATRIX
MOBILE/VIDEO MESSAGING ! ! ! ! ! !
VIDEO CONTENT ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
INTERNET OF THINGS ! ! ! ! ! ! !
SEARCH ! ! ! ! ! ! !
MARKETPLACE ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
DELIVERY SERVICE/ON-DEMAND ! ! !
CONNECTIVITY ! ! !
OS ! ! ! ! ! !
HARDWARE ! ! ! ! ! ! !
PAYMENT ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
STORAGE ! ! ! ! ! ! !
ADS/TECH ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE/BIG DATA ! ! !
WHATS NEXT?
INDEPENDENT PLAYERS IN EACH LAYER
MOBILE/VIDEO MESSAGING
VIDEO CONTENT
INTERNET OF THINGS
SEARCH
MARKETPLACE
DELIVERY SERVICE/ON-DEMAND
CONNECTIVITY
OS
HARDWARE
PAYMENT
STORAGE
ADS/TECH
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE/BIG DATA
A NEW NETWORK IS EMERGING
THE QUANTIFIED HUMAN
THE QUANTIFIED WORLD
THE QUANTIFIED NETWORK
LESSONS FROM THE INTERNET FRIDGE
1999 2007 2011 2010 2024 2006 2008 2001
CONTENT MUST SERVE
THE NEW REALITY OF ATTENTION
2013
2013
2014
SLIDESHOWS VINE MEMES INFOGRAPHICS
ANIMATED GIFS LISTICLES FUNNY FAKE REVIEWS SECRET
FAN CULTURE WILL BE
AS IMPORTANT TO
ATTENTION AS SOCIAL
FAN CONTENT ALREADY DWARFS PROFESSIONAL CONTENT
HOURS OF CONTENT
110 542,000
220 142,000
100 63,000
150 131,000
10 83,000
NETWORK LIBRARY FAN CREATED CONTENT
FIFTY SHADES OF GREY
35
90 52
MILLION
COPIES
SOLD
LANGUAGES
PUBLISHED
FASTEST-SELLING
PAPERBACK
OF ALL TIME
$
36
THANK YOU!
www.activate.com
@mjw