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3773 Cherry Creek North DriveSuite 850Denver, Colorado 80209-3868303.321.2547 fax 303.399.0448www.bbcresearch.combbc@bbcresearch.com
November 12, 2009North Area Transit AllianceC/O City of Thornton9500 Civic Center Drive,Thornton, Colorado 80229
Re: RTD Cost and Revenue Forecasts
Dear NATA Representative:This letter report is in response to your request for BBC Research & Consulting’s evaluation of theUrban Engineers, Inc and First Southwest Company’s critique of the Regional Transit District’s(RTD) sales tax projections and for our comments regarding the broader viability of the 2009FasTracks Financial Plan.
Background
In 2004, the Regional Transit District (RTD) established the initial budget and financial projectionsfor the FastTracks project based on a voter approved plan and capital budget of $4.7 billion dollars.The project anticipated 18 miles of bus rapid transit, 28 miles of light rail and 94 miles of commuterrail to be developed on multiple corridors within the Denver Metropolitan Area during the period2005 to 2017. RTD updates cost and revenue forecasts through an Annual Program Evaluationprocess (APE). The most recent reevaluation (FasTracks Financial Plan, April 2009) estimated thatsystem costs had risen to $7.0 billion.Construction funding for FasTracks comes from a metro wide sales and use tax (0.4%); anticipatedFederal support; leasing of certain operating and development rights (the Public Private Partnership),and fare box revenues. Considerable debt financing is anticipated, supported by sales and use taxrevenues.Since FastTacks inception, estimated costs have exceeded forecasts and sales and tax revenues havefailed to meet expectations. RTD’s 2009 FastTracks Development Plan (the Plan) suggests that adoubling of the current sales tax rate, which in combination with potential Public Private Partnership(P3) revenue and Federal support, would allow completion of metro wide transit system by 2017.
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