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    7 views44 pages

    Laporan Tugas Kelompok III

    Uploaded by

    Putri Dewintari

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 44

    Tugas Kelompok III

    Hasil pengamatan 15 minggu pertama


    terhadap curah hujan di suatu wilayah
    diperoleh data seperti yang tetulis
    pada tabel sebelah kanan. Jika suatu
    pemodelan matematis dari data
    pengamatan tersebut ada
    kecenderungan berbentuk
    dengan a, b adalah parameter data
    pengamatan, dan x, y adalah variable
    data pengamatan.












    Tabel Hasil Pengamatan Data Curah Hujan

    Waktu
    Pengamatan
    (minggu ke)
    Curah
    Hujan
    3
    (mm )
    1 2.175
    2 3.787
    3 6.7
    4 11.711
    5 20.495
    6 35.904
    7 62.789
    8 109.96
    9 192.419
    10 336.75
    11 589.3
    12 1031
    13 1800.95
    14 3157.987
    15 5525.766

    1. Tentukan uraian verifikasi matematis dengan linearisasi untuk pembentukan model
    tersebut agar metoda regresi linier dapat dilakukan !
    JAWAB :
    Karena

    merupakan Regresi Non linier Eksponensial sehingga rumus


    tersebut harus ditransformasikan terlebih dahulu agar metoda regresi linear
    dapat dilakukan :

    Dimana :


    Maka metode regresi linear yang didapat adalah:


    2. Bagaimana anda menghitung parameter a dan b dengan metoda regresinya !
    JAWAB :
    Rumus untuk mencari parameter a :

    )
    Rumus untuk mencari parameter b :




    3. Berdasarkan (ii), tentukan nilai parameter a dan b untuk model tersebut !
    JAWAB :
    Waktu
    pengamatan
    (x)
    Curah hujan
    dalam mm3 (y)
    log y X
    2
    x log y
    1 2.175 0.337459261 1 0.337459261
    2 3.787 0.578295305 4 1.15659061
    3 6.7 0.826074803 9 2.478224408
    4 11.711 1.068593981 16 4.274375924
    5 20.495 1.311647923 25 6.558239613
    6 35.904 1.555142835 36 9.330857011
    7 62.789 1.797883566 49 12.58518496
    8 109.96 2.041234731 64 16.32987785
    9 192.419 2.284247953 81 20.55823158
    10 336.75 2.527307604 100 25.27307604
    11 589.3 2.770336441 121 30.47370085
    12 1031 3.013258665 144 36.15910398
    13 1800.95 3.255501656 169 42.32152152
    14 3157.987 3.499410338 196 48.99174473
    15 5525.766 3.74239249 225 56.13588735


    untuk menghitung parameter (b) yaitu :




    Transformasikan (Log b) ke (b) :


    Sehingga didapat (pembulatan 4 digit)
    Untuk menghitung parameter (a) yaitu :



    Transformasikan (Log a) ke (a) :


    Sehingga didapat (pembulatan 4 digit)
    4. Validasi model yang anda buat dengan menghitung data pengamatan melalui
    model tersebut !
    JAWAB :


    Waktu
    pengamatan
    (x)
    Y
    1 2.17874615
    2 3.814330885
    3 6.67774908
    4 11.69073531
    5 20.46697031
    6 35.83152493
    7 62.7302507
    8 109.8218499
    9 192.2651126
    10 336.5985326
    11 589.2830511
    12 1031.657838
    13 1806.123376
    14 3161.980195
    15 5535.678727

    5. Gambarkan grafik data pengamatan yang sebenarnya dan grafik data
    pengamatan model !
    JAWAB :
    Waktu
    pengamatan
    (x)
    nilai Y pada
    model
    Nilai Y pada
    data
    pengamatan
    1 2.17874615 2.175
    2 3.814330885 3.787
    3 6.67774908 6.7
    4 11.69073531 11.711
    5 20.46697031 20.495
    6 35.83152493 35.904
    7 62.7302507 62.789
    8 109.8218499 109.96
    9 192.2651126 192.419
    10 336.5985326 336.75
    11 589.2830511 589.3
    12 1031.657838 1031
    13 1806.123376 1800.95
    14 3161.980195 3157.987
    15 5535.678727 5525.766

    Perbedaan (galat pada model dan data pengamatan sangat tipis)

    6. Simulasikan melalui model, untuk memperkirakan data curah hujan (dalam mm3)
    pada minggu ke 16. Apa pendapat anda tentang data curah hujan di masa - masa
    yang akan datang menurut model yang anda peroleh tersebut.
    JAWAB :

    x = 16







    0
    1000
    2000
    3000
    4000
    5000
    6000
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
    Grafik Data Pengamatan & Model
    nilai Y pada model Nilai Y pada data pengamatan
    Screenshoot program
    Tampilan utama

    Tampilan Input Data



    Tampilan Olah Data









    Diagram Pencar Data Pengamatan Ditampilkan Setelah Menekan Tombol
    Grafik Pengamatan


    Listing Program
    a) grap.php
    <?php
    $x = $_POST['x'];
    $y = $_POST['y'];
    $y_model = $_POST['y_model'];
    $n = count($x);
    ?>
    <html>
    <head>
    <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html;
    charset=utf-8">
    <title>Hasil Pengamatan</title>

    <script type="text/javascript" src="js/jquery.min.js"></script>
    <script type="text/javascript">
    $(function () {
    $('#container').highcharts({
    title: {
    text: 'Hasil Pengamatan',
    x: -20 //center
    },
    subtitle: {
    text: 'Waktu (x)',
    x: -20
    },
    xAxis: {
    categories: [
    <?php for ($i=1; $i <= $n; $i++) {
    echo "'".$i."',";
    }
    ?>
    ]
    },
    yAxis: {
    title: {
    text: 'Curah Hujan dalam mm3 (y)'
    },
    plotLines: [{
    value: 0,
    width: 1,
    color: '#808080'
    }]
    },

    legend: {
    layout: 'vertical',
    align: 'right',
    verticalAlign: 'middle',
    borderWidth: 0
    },
    series: [{
    name: 'Data Pengamatan',
    data: [
    <?php
    for ($i=0; $i < $n; $i++) {
    echo $y[$i].",";
    }
    ?>
    ]
    }, {
    name: 'Data Model',
    data: [
    <?php for ($i=0; $i < $n; $i++) {
    echo $y_model[$i].",";
    }
    ?>
    ]
    }]
    });
    });


    </script>
    </head>
    <body>
    <script src="js/highcharts.js"></script>
    <script src="js/modules/exporting.js"></script>

    <div id="container" style="min-width: 310px; height: 400px; margin: 0
    auto"></div>

    </body>
    </html>
    b) hitung.php
    <?php
    $a = $_POST[l_a];
    $b = $_POST[l_b];
    $x = $_POST[x_baru];
    $hitung = $a * pow($b, $x);
    $hitung = round($hitung,5);
    ?>
    <table>
    <tr>
    <td style="background-color:#00ffd2;" align="center">Jika Waktu
    Pengamatan = <?php echo $x ?></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td style="background-color:#00ffd2;" align="center"><i>Y =
    (<?php echo $a ?>)(<?php echo $b ?>)<sup><?php echo $x
    ?></sup></i></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td style="background-color:#00ffd2;" align="center"><i>Y =
    <?php echo $hitung?></i></td>
    </tr>
    </table>
    c) index.php
    <html>
    <head>
    <title></title>
    </head>
    <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="style.css">
    <body>
    <div id="container">
    <div id="header">

    </div>
    <div id="content">
    <?php
    error_reporting(E_ALL ^ (E_NOTICE | E_WARNING));
    if($_GET['menu']=='isi_data')
    {
    include "masukan_data.php";
    }
    elseif($_GET['menu']=='proses')
    {
    include "proses_data.php";
    }
    elseif($_GET['menu']=='grapik')
    {
    include "grap.php";
    }
    elseif($_GET['menu']=='hitung')
    {
    include "hitung.php";
    }
    else
    {
    include "isi_jml.php";
    }

    ?>
    </div>
    </div>
    </body>
    </html>
    d) isi_jml.php
    <form action="index.php?menu=isi_data" method="post">
    <label>Jumlah Data</label>
    <input type="text" name="jml_data">
    <button type="submit">Submit</button>
    </form>
    e) masukan_data.php
    <form action="index.php?menu=proses" method="post">
    <?php
    $jml_data = $_POST[jml_data];
    $no = 1;
    ?>
    <table border="0">
    <tr>
    <td class="judul">Waktu Pengamatan</td>
    <td class="judul">Curah Hujan Dalam mm<sup>3</sup></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td>
    <?php
    for ($i=0; $i < $jml_data; $i++) {
    ?>
    <p>
    <label>x<sub><?php echo $no?></sub> :</label>
    <input type="text" name="x[]" size="10" />
    </p>

    <?php
    $no++;
    }
    ?>
    </td>
    <td>
    <?php
    $no=1;
    for ($i=0; $i < $jml_data; $i++) {
    ?>
    <p>
    <label>y<sub><?php echo $no?></sub> :</label>
    <input type="text" name="y[]" size="10" />
    </p>

    <?php
    $no++;
    }
    ?>
    </td>
    </tr>
    </table>
    <button type="submit" class="tombol"
    value="hitung">Hitung</button>
    </form>
    f) proses_data.php
    <?php
    if (isset($_POST['x'])) {
    $x = $_POST['x'];
    $y = $_POST['y'];


    // mengubah x menjadi X^2
    $x_2 = array();
    $i = 0;
    foreach ($x as $x => $value) {
    $x_2[$i] = pow($value, 2);
    $i++;
    }

    // mengubah y menjadi Log Y
    $logY = array();
    $i = 0;
    foreach ($y as $y => $value) {
    $logY[$i] = log10($value);
    $logY[$i] = round($logY[$i],5);
    $i++;
    }

    $n = count($x_2);

    $i = 0;
    $x = $_POST['x'];
    $y = $_POST['y'];

    for ($i=0; $i < $n ; $i++) {
    $xlogY[$i] = $x[$i] * $logY[$i];
    }

    ?>
    <table style="width:600px" class="tabel">
    <h2 class="judul">Menentukan Nilai Parameter a & b</h2>
    <tr>
    <th>Waktu pengamatan (x)</th>
    <th>Curah hujan dalam mm3 (y)</th>
    <th>log y</th>
    <th>x^2</th>
    <th>x log y</th>
    </tr>
    <?php
    $i = 0;
    for ($i=0; $i < $n; $i++) {
    ?>
    <tr>
    <td align="center"><?php echo $x[$i]?></td>
    <td align="right"><?php echo $y[$i]?></td>
    <td align="right"><?php echo $logY[$i]?></td>
    <td align="right"><?php echo $x_2[$i]?></td>
    <td align="right"><?php echo $xlogY[$i]?></td>
    </tr>
    <?php
    }
    ?>
    <tr style="background-color:#ffcc00;">
    <td align="center"><b><?php echo array_sum($x)?></td>
    <td align="right"><b><?php echo array_sum($y)?></td>
    <td align="right"><b><?php echo array_sum($logY)?></td>
    <td align="right"><b><?php echo array_sum($x_2)?></td>
    <td align="right"><b><?php echo array_sum($xlogY)?></td>
    </tr>
    </table>
    <?php
    $jml_x = array_sum($x);
    $jml_logy = array_sum($logY);
    $jml_x_2 = array_sum($x_2);
    $jml_xlogy = array_sum($xlogY);

    $log_b = (($n*$jml_xlogy) - ($jml_x*$jml_logy))/(($n*$jml_x_2) -
    pow($jml_x, 2));
    $log_b = round($log_b,5);
    //echo $log_b;

    $log_a = ($jml_logy/$n) - ($log_b*($jml_x/$n));
    $log_a = round($log_a,5);
    //echo $log_a;

    $t_log_b = round(pow(10, $log_b),5);
    //echo $t_log_b;

    $t_log_a = round(pow(10, $log_a),5);
    //echo $t_log_a;
    ?>
    <br>
    <br>
    <hr>
    <table>
    <tr>
    <td rowspan="2"></td>
    <td>Log b = </td>
    <td style="border-bottom: 1px
    solid;"><i>n(&sum;X<sub>i</sub>LogY<sub>i</sub>) -
    (&sum;X<sub>i</sub>)(&sum;LogY<sub>i</sub>)</i></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td></td>
    <td align="center"><i>n&sum;X<sub>i</sub><sup>2</sup> -
    (&sum;X<sub>i</sub>)<sup>2</sup></i></td>
    </tr>
    </table>
    <br>
    <br>
    <table>
    <tr>
    <td rowspan="2"></td>
    <td>Log b = </td>
    <td style="border-bottom: 1px solid;"><i><?php echo
    $n."(".$jml_xlogy.") - (".$jml_x.")(".$jml_logy.")" ?></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td></td>
    <td align="center"><i><?php echo $n."(".$jml_x_2.") -
    (".$jml_x.")<sup>2<sup>" ?></i></td>
    </tr>
    </table>
    <br>
    <br>
    <table>
    <tr>
    <td rowspan="2"></td>
    <td style="background-color:#2aff00;">Log b = </td>
    <td style="background-color:#2aff00;"><i><?php echo $log_b
    ?></td>
    </tr>
    </table>
    <br>
    <br>
    <table>
    <tr>
    <td rowspan="2"></td>
    <td>Log a = </td>
    <td style="border-bottom: 1px
    solid;"><i>(&sum;LogY<sub>i</sub>)-</i></td>
    <td style="border-bottom: 1px solid;"><i>(Log b)</i></td>
    <td style="border-bottom: 1px
    solid;"><i>(&sum;X<sub>i</sub>)</i></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td></td>
    <td align="center"><i>(n)</i></td>
    <td align="center"><i></i></td>
    <td align="center"><i>(n)</i></td>
    </tr>
    </table>
    <br>
    <br>
    <table>
    <tr>
    <td rowspan="2"></td>
    <td>Log a = </td>
    <td style="border-bottom: 1px solid;"><i>(<?php echo $jml_logy
    ?>)</i></td>
    <td style="border-bottom: 1px solid;"><i> - (<?php echo $log_b
    ?>)</i></td>
    <td style="border-bottom: 1px solid;"><i>(<?php echo $jml_x
    ?>)</i></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td></td>
    <td align="center"><i>(<?php echo $n ?></i>)</td>
    <td align="center"><i></i></td>
    <td align="center"><i>(<?php echo $n ?>)</i></td>
    </tr>
    </table>
    <br>
    <br>
    <table>
    <tr>
    <td rowspan="2"></td>
    <td style="background-color:#00ffd2;">Log a = </td>
    <td style="background-color:#00ffd2;"><i><?php echo $log_a
    ?></td>
    </tr>
    </table>
    <br>
    <br>
    <table>
    <tr>
    <td >Transformasi (Log b) ke (b) </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td align="center"><i>Log b = <?php echo $log_b ?></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td align="center"><i>b = 10<sup><?php echo $log_b
    ?></sup></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td align="center"><i>b = <?php echo $t_log_b ?></td>
    </tr>
    </table>
    <br>
    <br>
    <table>
    <tr>
    <td rowspan="2"></td>
    <td style="background-color:#00ffd2;">Log a = </td>
    <td style="background-color:#00ffd2;"><i><?php echo $log_a
    ?></td>
    </tr>
    </table>
    <br>
    <br>
    <table>
    <tr>
    <td >Transformasi (Log a) ke (a) </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td align="center"><i>Log a = <?php echo $log_a ?></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td align="center"><i>a = 10<sup><?php echo $log_a
    ?></sup></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td align="center"><i>a = <?php echo $t_log_a ?></td>
    </tr>
    </table>
    <br>
    <br>
    <table>
    <tr>
    <td >Maka regresi model eksponen yang di peroleh</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td align="center"><i>Y = a b <sup>x</sup></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td align="center"><i>Y = (<?php echo $t_log_a ?>)(<?php
    echo $t_log_b ?>)<sup>x</sup></sup></i></td>
    </tr>
    </table>
    <hr>
    <table style="width:600px" class="tabel">
    <h2 class="judul">Validasi model dengan menghitung data
    pengamatan melalui model tersebut</h2>
    <tr>
    <td>Waktu pengamatan (x)</td>
    <td>Y Model</td>
    <td>Y Hasil Pengamatan</td>
    </tr>
    <?php
    $x = $_POST['x'];
    $y = $_POST['y'];
    $y_model = array();
    $i=0;
    foreach ($x as $xx => $value) {
    $y_model[$i] = $t_log_a * pow($t_log_b, $value);
    $y_model[$i] = round($y_model[$i],5);
    $i++;
    }
    $i = 0;
    for ($i=0; $i < $n; $i++) {
    ?>
    <tr>
    <td align="center"><?php echo $x[$i]?></td>
    <td align="right"><?php echo $y_model[$i]?></td>
    <td align="right"><?php echo $y[$i]?></td>
    </tr>
    <?php
    }
    ?>
    <form action="index.php?menu=grapik" method="post">
    <?php
    $i = 0;
    for ($i=0; $i < $n; $i++) {
    ?>
    <input type="hidden" name="x[]" value="<?php echo $x[$i]?>">
    <input type="hidden" name="y[]" value="<?php echo $y[$i]?>">
    <input type="hidden" name="y_model[]" value="<?php echo
    $y_model[$i]?>">
    <?php
    }
    $x_16 = $t_log_a * pow($t_log_b, 16);
    $x_16 = round($x_16,5);
    ?>
    <button value="grapik" type="submit">Grafik</button>
    </form>
    </table>
    <br>
    <br>
    <table>
    <tr>
    <td style="background-color:#00ffd2;" align="center">Jika Waktu
    Pengamatan = 16</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td style="background-color:#00ffd2;" align="center"><i>Y =
    (<?php echo $t_log_a ?>)(<?php echo $t_log_b
    ?>)<sup>16</sup></i></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td style="background-color:#00ffd2;" align="center"><i>Y =
    <?php echo $x_16?></i></td>
    </tr>
    </table>
    <form action="index.php?menu=hitung" method="post">
    <label>Masukan X</label>
    <input type="text" name="x_baru">
    <input type="hidden" name="l_a" value="<?php echo
    $t_log_a?>">
    <input type="hidden" name="l_b" value="<?php echo
    $t_log_b?>">
    <button type="submit">Hitung</button>
    </form>
    <?php
    }
    ?>
    g) style.css
    body{
    padding: 0px;
    margin: 0px;
    background-image: url(gambar/bg.png);
    background-repeat: repeat;
    }

    label {
    float: left;
    text-align: right;
    margin-right: 20px;
    width: 50px;
    }

    sub{
    font-size: 10px;
    }

    table{
    margin: 0 auto;
    }

    td{

    }

    #container{
    width: 80%;
    height: auto;
    margin: 50px auto;

    }
    #header{
    width: 100%;
    height: 200px;
    background-image: url(gambar/baner.jpg);
    margin: 0 auto;
    overflow: hidden;
    margin-bottom: 30px;
    }

    #content {
    width: 100%;
    height: auto;
    background-color: white;
    padding: 20px;
    }

    .tombol{
    float: left;
    margin-left: 20px;
    }

    .judul{
    padding-bottom: 20px;
    text-align: center;
    }

    .tabel {
    margin:0px;padding:0px;
    width:100%;
    border:1px solid #000000;

    -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:0px;
    -webkit-border-bottom-left-radius:0px;
    border-bottom-left-radius:0px;

    -moz-border-radius-bottomright:0px;
    -webkit-border-bottom-right-radius:0px;
    border-bottom-right-radius:0px;

    -moz-border-radius-topright:0px;
    -webkit-border-top-right-radius:0px;
    border-top-right-radius:0px;

    -moz-border-radius-topleft:0px;
    -webkit-border-top-left-radius:0px;
    border-top-left-radius:0px;
    margin: 0 auto;
    }.tabel table{
    border-collapse: collapse;
    border-spacing: 0;
    width:100%;
    height:100%;
    margin:0px;padding:0px;
    }.tabel tr:last-child td:last-child {
    -moz-border-radius-bottomright:0px;
    -webkit-border-bottom-right-radius:0px;
    border-bottom-right-radius:0px;
    }
    .tabel table tr:first-child td:first-child {
    -moz-border-radius-topleft:0px;
    -webkit-border-top-left-radius:0px;
    border-top-left-radius:0px;
    }
    .tabel table tr:first-child td:last-child {
    -moz-border-radius-topright:0px;
    -webkit-border-top-right-radius:0px;
    border-top-right-radius:0px;
    }.tabel tr:last-child td:first-child{
    -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:0px;
    -webkit-border-bottom-left-radius:0px;
    border-bottom-left-radius:0px;
    }.tabel tr:hover td{

    }
    .tabel tr:nth-child(odd){ background-color:#ffffff; }
    .tabel tr:nth-child(even) { background-color:#ffffff; }.tabel td{
    vertical-align:middle;


    border:1px solid #000000;
    border-width:0px 1px 1px 0px;
    padding:7px;
    font-size:10px;
    font-family:Arial;
    font-weight:normal;
    color:#000000;
    }.tabel tr:last-child td{
    border-width:0px 1px 0px 0px;
    }.tabel tr td:last-child{
    border-width:0px 0px 1px 0px;
    }.tabel tr:last-child td:last-child{
    border-width:0px 0px 0px 0px;
    }
    .tabel tr:first-child td{
    background:-o-linear-gradient(bottom, #ff7f00 5%, #ff7f00
    100%); background:-webkit-gradient( linear, left top, left bottom,
    color-stop(0.05, #ff7f00), color-stop(1, #ff7f00) );
    background:-moz-linear-gradient( center top, #ff7f00 5%, #ff7f00
    100% );
    filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.gradient(startColorstr="#ff
    7f00", endColorstr="#ff7f00"); background: -o-linear-
    gradient(top,#ff7f00,ff7f00);

    background-color:#ff7f00;
    border:0px solid #000000;
    text-align:center;
    border-width:0px 0px 1px 1px;
    font-size:14px;
    font-family:Arial;
    font-weight:bold;
    color:#ffffff;
    }
    .tabel tr:first-child:hover td{
    background:-o-linear-gradient(bottom, #ff7f00 5%, #ff7f00 100%);
    background:-webkit-gradient( linear, left top, left bottom, color-
    stop(0.05, #ff7f00), color-stop(1, #ff7f00) );
    background:-moz-linear-gradient( center top, #ff7f00 5%, #ff7f00
    100% );
    filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.gradient(startColorstr="#ff
    7f00", endColorstr="#ff7f00"); background: -o-linear-
    gradient(top,#ff7f00,ff7f00);

    background-color:#ff7f00;
    }
    .tabel tr:first-child td:first-child{
    border-width:0px 0px 1px 0px;
    }
    .tabel tr:first-child td:last-child{
    border-width:0px 0px 1px 1px;
    }

    th{
    background-color: #00b4ff;
    }

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