Electoral stakes and

reconciliation non-starters
July 17, 2014
With presidential elections in the offing and the incumbent setting his eyes on an
unprecedented third term in office, the prospect of reconciliation and a final political
solution to resolve Sri Lankas ethnic question looks as remote as ever
Ten
months ago, the Tamil people of the Northern Province who were liberate
from the clutches of the !TT" by Presient #ahina $a%apa&sa an his
security forces went to the polls to elect a provincial government for the
'rst time in 2( years)
*uring a heate election season, the +overnment plege to continue its
ambitious evelopment rive in the region, repeately recollecte life uner
the !TT" yo&e an issue subtle threats of a resumption of war in the event
of a TN, victory) The TN, invo&e virulently Tamil nationalistic rhetoric
uring the polls campaign) -t spo&e of %ustice for Tamil people &ille in
#ullivai&al in the last ays of the 'ghting in 200.) -t spo&e about post/war
surveillance an heavy militarisation in the Tamil/ominate north) -t spo&e
of political autonomy an the return of a civilian aministration in the
former war 0one)
1n 21 2eptember 2013, when the people of the Northern Province mae
their choice, their message to 4olombo was resouningly clear 5 706 of the
north7s registere voters swept the TN, into power with a two/thirs
ma%ority, elivering the 8P9, coalition its worst/ever electoral efeat)
!ast wee&, with the NP4 nearly one year into its 've/year term in o:ce, the
$a%apa&sa +overnment sent bac& a message of its own) -t tol TN,
politicians an the people who vote them into o:ce with a thumping
manate that 4olombo is simply not listening)
$eappointe
Northern Province +overnor +),) 4hanrasiri was reappointe
by Presient $a%apa&sa last 9riay after his 've/year term
neare completion on 12 July 2014) 4hanrasiri is a retire
#a%or +eneral who also serve as 2ecurity 9orces 4ommaner
of Ja;na uring the war) The TN, has been relentless in its
appeals for his removal as +overnor an for the longest time,
his replacement was the single concession the $a%apa&sa
+overnment ha seeme willing to ma&e to the TN,/le
provincial aministration in the north)
-n his 'rst meeting with 4hief #inister 4)<) =igneswaran on only the secon
ay of this year, Presient $a%apa&sa promise to replace 4hanrasiri as
+overnor as soon as his term ene in July) 4hanrasiri himself ha
e>presse interest in %oining the rest of his family in ,ustralia once his term
ene in July, the Northern Province 4hief #inister tol reporters after his
surprise reappointment)
2everal names ha been in circulation for his potential replacement that
was, for all intents an purposes, ue this month) The TN, ha its own list
of preferences, many of them high calibre retire public servants, with the
capacity to navigate the international imensions of northern politics an
negotiating power with the +overnment in 4olombo) 9or its part, the
+overnment was unwilling to appoint a civilian per se as re?ueste by the
TN,, but it was sai to be contemplating naming a senior retire police
o:cer as Northern +overnor, in orer to be able to o away with the
military tenor of the position)
8neasy cohabitation continues
@ut as fate an Presient $a%apa&sa woul have it, the uneasy cohabitation
between the =igneswaran aministration an +overnor 4hanrasiri is now
estine to continue)
9or the TN,, 4hanrasiri7s position at the helm of provincial a;airs ha
alreay come to be a symbol of militarisation in the north) The party ha
mae his removal from o:ce a hot button campaign issue, but
4hanrasiri7s role was to become even more problematic after the TN, was
electe to o:ce in 2eptember last year)
2ince the 'ghting ene in the north in 200., +overnor 4hanrasiri has
been the region7s top Presiential representative) -n the absence of an
electe provincial council in the region, for four years +overnor 4hanrasiri
ha the run of the province) ,n entrenche provincial bureaucracy grew
accustome to answering only to the holer of this e>ecutive o:ce) @y the
time the TN, 4ouncil was constitute an commence the a;airs of
governance, allegiances of civil servants wor&ing in the province were well
entrenche)
That there woul be simmering tensions between the electe provincial
council in the north an the 4entral +overnment in 4olombo was a foregone
conclusion, even before the polls ene) @y the time Northern 4hief
#inister 4)<) =igneswaran assume o:ce, the bureaucracy ha alreay
pic&e a sie) -t sie with the central +overnment an its ">ecutive
representative in the Northern Province, believing, perhaps ?uite rightly,
that the assurance of sustainability an longevity lay there)
The Northern Provincial 4ouncil, li&e every other provincial legislature,
e>ists entirely at the pleasure of the 4entre an may be issolve at any
moment of the +overnment7s choosing) -n the case of the NP4, this anger
is e>acerbate because it is the only provincial council in the country to be
run by an opposition party, an one that is particularly mistruste by the
ruling coalition)
9rom the perspective of the public servant, to plege loyalty to electe
provincial representatives over the central government authority in a
highly/politicise aministrative service therefore, woul prove a profounly
short/sighte act) The relationship between the TN,/le council an the
public servants wor&ing in the Province has been unpreceentely ba)
2our relations
2ince the ay the Northern P4 sat for the very 'rst time on 2( 1ctober
2013, battle lines between the new 4hief #inister an the Province7s 4hief
2ecretary have been rawn) "arlier this year, the senior public servant 'le
a funamental rights petition against 4hief #inister =igneswaran, in which
she is being efene by top lawyers usually appearing for the 8P9,7s ultra/
nationalist coalition ally, the JA8) =igneswaran has accuse 4hanrasiri of
running a parallel aministration, bloc&ing his bugets an challenging his
authority, all with the assistance of the 4hief 2ecretary an hampering the
wor& of the electe 4ouncil)
The post/war security paranoia has ensure that both war/torn provinces of
the north an east have ha e>/military o:cers as Provincial +overnors
since hostilities ene in the respective regions) The two o:cers are
unpopular with the electe provincial aministrations in both provinces) @ut
in the "astern Province, tensions are less public between Provincial
+overnor an $ear ,miral of the 2ri !an&a Navy #ohan =i%ewic&rama an
the 8P9,/le provincial council, largely because it is a home/an/home
a;air) The north is a vastly i;erent story)
9or nearly one year now, 4hief #inister =igneswaran has tol every visiting
foreign ignitary about how 4hanrasiri was getting in his way an
thwarting the aspirations of the Tamil people who electe him to o:ce) The
incessant appeals from the TN, on this score le to the inclusion of a
provision in the 8N Auman $ights 4ouncil resolution in +eneva this year,
re?uesting the 2ri !an&an +overnment to grant provincial councils the
space to operate)
The optical avantage of removing 4hanrasiri, from the perspective of the
+overnment7s foreign relations therefore, woul have been immeasurable)
@ut Presient $a%apa&sa, who is seriously mulling his political fortunes in
early 201(, has other, more important consierations to factor in)

2ha&y coalition
9or one thing, he has an eclectic coalition to hol together) Presient
$a%apa&sa, who once prouly tol the ,l Ja0eera networ& that his cabinet
was full of right wing an religious e>tremists, must now strive to &eep
these competing interests from causing his +overnment to imploe, at least
until he is safely re/electe Presient ne>t year)
The Jathi&a Aela 8rumaya an the =imal =eerawansa/le National 9reeom
9ront, once the 'rm ieologues of the $a%apa&sa regime, have been
showing signs of incumbency fatigue in recent months) JA8 Parliamentarian
,thuraliye $athana Thero has been openly engaging with opposition parties
an civil society groups that are mobilising against the continuation of the
e>ecutive presiential system)
The movement to abolish the presiency poses a irect threat to the
$a%apa&sa regime, which has sought to strengthen an alreay/powerful
presiency uring its tenure, with the raconian 1Bth ,menment to the
4onstitution that permits an incumbent to contest unlimite terms in o:ce)
=hile #inister 4hampi&a $anawa&a remains 'rmly within the 8P9, fol, the
staunchly 2inhala nationalist JA8 #ember has been isillusione with the
+overnment positions on casinos an -nian collaboration on the 2ampur
coal power pro%ect) =eerawansa has also been vocal in his criticism of
+overnment policy, particularly with regar to corruption an ?uestions
relating to political evolution to the Tamil people an the ethnic issue)
4rucial support
,ny apparent concession to TN, emans coul rive both these vital allies
away from the ruling coalition in these crucial pre/election months) The
esire to &eep =eerawansa an the JA8 happy may have compelle the
+overnment to play own the 2outh ,frican initiative to restart tal&s
between the +overnment an the TN, omestically, espite the high/level
visit from Pretoria last wee&) The same concerns may have prompte
Presient $a%apa&sa7s cautious remar&s to ,cting 2outh ,frican Presient
4yril $amaphosa that he woul have to Cthin& aboutD a proposal to restart
bilateral tal&s with the TN, while the P24 process continues on the sie)
The +overnor 4hanrasiri reappointment has similar implications, ?uite
apart from the efence establishment7s role in ensuring a military 'gure
remains at the top of northern political a;airs) The $a%apa&sa regime7s
lethargy to rein in @uhist harline groups or e>press genuine remorse or
conolence about the brutal violence unleashe against #uslim settlements
in ,luthgama an @eruwala last month may also have strong electoral
compulsions)
Aaving alienate Tamils, #uslims an even 2inhalese 4atholics an
4hristians with its abysmal minority policies an creeping hegemonic
agenas, the $a%apa&sa regime will have to rely heavily on the support of
nearly all 2inhala @uhists in the country to return to power) The JA8 an
=imal =eerawansa are essential cogs in that wheel) The @ou @ala 2ena
may also have a role to play in the presiential election en game, by
&eeping 2inhala @uhist insecurity whippe up to a fren0y, an willing to
support the incumbent when opposition an minority forces ban together
an attempt to efeat him) -t is a angerous gamble, but it appears one
Presient $a%apa&sa is willing to hege, in the belief the ma%ority
community will sweep him bac& to power in a 201( election)
Preoccupie with victory
The international pressure builing against his +overnment is nothing to
what Presient $a%apa&sa is feeling internally, to ensure victory at the ne>t
presiential election)
The ne>t roun of provincial elections in the 8va Province will be the aci
test for the ruling coalition as to whether incumbency fatigue has truly set
in) -t has alreay shown itself %ittery about the @aulla *istrict, where
plantation Tamils an a large #uslim community threaten to erail its
electoral fortunes)
1pposition parties claim the ecision to reallocate seats in the Province, to
increase the number in #onaragala an reuce the number of
representatives electe from @aulla, is a emonstration of this ruling party
fear) The 8NP ecision to 'el its popular Parliamentarian Aarin 9ernano as
its 4hief #inisterial caniate in the Province has raise the sta&es in 8va,
as both camps use the en ,ugust poll as a precursor to imminent national
elections)
9or the moment, the ruling aministration appears willing to loo& unyieling
an haw&ish to the international community, if it means the same positions
can ensure its political fortunes remain unchange at home) This
calculation, strangely, has a shelf/life an the +overnment nees to e>ploit
it while it still can)
*omestic repercussions
-f the $a%apa&sa aministration continues the way it oes with blatant
isregar for human rights, emocratic norms an civil liberties, it will not
be long before the international problem begins to have profounly
omestic conse?uences) 4ontinue international censure an recognition as
a country moving towars authoritarian governance will ultimately translate
into omestic chaos, when 2ri !an&a strives to stay aEoat economically by
attracting tourism an foreign investment while its image an reputation
ta&e a beating overseas)
=hile the +overnment can rule out action against 2ri !an&a at the 8N
2ecurity 4ouncil because of the veto en%oye by $ussia an 4hina, bilateral
action against an increasingly autocratic an oburate regime in 4olombo
also remains a very real possibility an one with potentially/evastating
conse?uences for the 2ri !an&an economy)
@ut an early 201( presiential election will ensure Presient $a%apa&sa is
re/seate long before its international fortunes begin to a;ect the omestic
sphere) -n early 201(, the +overnment will ban& on international action
against 2ri !an&a wor&ing in the incumbent7s favour)
"lections that were initially e>pecte to be hel very early 201( may be
pushe bac& to facilitate a visit by Pope 9rancis to 2ri !an&a in January,
since the Ponti; will not visit countries in which elections have been
eclare) 8ner the circumstances, an this remains highly speculative still,
presiential elections may be hel in #arch 201() This timing will coincie
with the latest roun of international action on 2ri !an&a at the 8N Auman
$ights 4ouncil in +eneva)
-n its #arch 201( session, the 47/member 4ouncil will be presente the
'nal report from a team of investigators tas&e with probing allege
atrocities by both sies to the conEict in the last seven years of the war in
2ri !an&a) "vience gathere by investigators an conclusions reache in
the report will go some istance to ictate future international action
against 2ri !an&a on the tric&y ?uestion of human rights) ,t home, the
regime will use these international moves to rive the Fefeners of the
nation7 argument on its election platforms, as it has one with fair success
in previous elections)
"lections to rive policy
4hairing a *istrict *evelopment 4ouncil meeting in $atnapura on Tuesay,
Presient $a%apa&sa was seen strictly lecturing +overnment o:cials about
the fact that all governance ecisions cannot be mae base on electoral
consierations alone) Those were strangely ironic sentiments in light of the
regime7s present preoccupations with electoral politics an how they have
alreay begun to rive policy on &ey issues of the ay)
To the TN,, the reappointment of +overnor 4hanrasiri signals the
+overnment7s unwillingness to meaningfully share power or lift the
oppressive military rule in the north) Justice =igneswaran, following
4hanrasiri7s reappointment, note that the Presient7s move
emonstrate his +overnment7s intent to pursue a Fmilitary/le7 relationship
with the Tamils of 2ri !an&a) *isillusione by Presient $a%apa&sa7s bro&en
promise to the TN,, the Northern Province 4hief #inister remains convince
4hanrasiri7s retention will &eep relations straine between Ja;na an
4olombo)
The move is wiely consiere to be a ma%or blow to reconciliation, coming
on the heels of the $amaphosa visit an the attempt to restart a
conversation on a political solution to the longstaning ethnic conEict in the
islan) -t eroes con'ence further in the +overnment7s will to eliver a
power sharing eal with the Tamils that it has repeately committe to
internationally over the years)
,ll of these are minor consierations in light of impening elections an
Presient $a%apa&sa7s esire to secure a thir term in o:ce) 4onsoliating
power has been the $a%apa&sa aministration7s primary preoccupation
since it assume o:ce) Nine years own the line, the triumph over the !TT"
has lost its original spar&le an the regime has mae enemies of entire
fraternities of the populace 5 stuents, lawyers, the meia an civil society)
,s opposition forces gather in momentum an the electorate shows itself
less willing to be a00le by glittering evelopment pro%ects an promises
of prosperity, for Presient $a%apa&sa the sta&es have never been higher)
8ntil this election season is complete an the $a%apa&sa +overnment is
safely ensconce in the seats of power once more, conversations about
genuine reconciliation an sharing power with the Tamil people will remain
non/starters)