CHN MU V

TNH TON C MU
Chn mu?
Nu tt c cc c th ca mt qun th u
ging nhau, chng ta c mt qun th thun
nht (homogenous). Khi , c tnh ca mi
c th cng chnh l ca qun th. Khng c s
khc nhau/ giao ng tnh cht gia cc c th.

Chn mu?
Khi cc c th trong mt qun th khc nhau, chng ta c
mt qun th hn tp/ khng thun nht (heterogeneous).
Khi c tnh ca mt c th bt k khng mang tnh i
din cho c qun th. C s khc nhau/ giao ng gia
cc c th.
Nu mun m t c tnh qun th, khi khng th quan st
c tt c cc c th, ngi ta phi chn mt s lng
c th t hn trong kh nng, i din tt cho tt c cc
c th ca qun th quan st.
Chn mu?
Qun th
Mu
S dng d liu/ thng tin ca mt s t
tip cn c ni v s ng m
khng th tip cn ht
Chn mu
L ci
chng ta
mun bit
L ci m
chng ta
quan st
Suy ra
Chn mu?
Mu ca mt qun th phi suy ra c nhng thng
tin hu ch v qun th . Do vy, mu phi m bo
c c nhng bin thin c bn gia cc c th nh
qun th.
Mt qun th cng khng ng nht
Th xc sut mt mu kh c th m t qun cng ln
S l mt sai lm nu suy c tnh ca mu thnh c tnh
ca qun th.
V
Th s lng c th ca mu phi cng ln c th m
t qun th tt Mt mu phi c s lng c th ln
cho th suy c tnh ca mu thnh ca qun th
Chn mu?
Chn mu l mt quy trnh la chn c th t qun
th cho quan st, c th coi kt qu quan st mu
thnh kt qu quan st qun th, mt mc chp
nhn m xc nh c.
Mu l i din ca mt qun th. Mc i din phi
c xc nh/ o lng c.

C hai cch chn mu:
Chn mu khng ngu nhin
Chn mu ngu nhin
Cc khi nim c bn
Ton th: L tp hp l thuyt ca tt c cc c th, khng xc
nh khng gian v thi gian
Qun th: L tp hp l thuyt ca tt c c th theo mt c
tnh, trong mt khong khng gian v thi gian xc nh.
Mu/ qun th quan st c: L tp hp mt s lng c
th, la chn t mt qun th trn mt c tnh mu quan tm.
c tnh mu: L c s xc nh, la chn c th ca qun
th vo mt mu, c s lng c th t hn, v d c th mt
qun th ngi c th l c th ngi, h gia nh, lng/ xm
Danh sch/ khung mu: L danh sch cc c th ca mt
qun th, gip h tr k thut cho qu trnh chn mu
C mu: L s lng c th c la chn t mt s lng
xc nh/ khng xc nh c th ca qun th vo mt tp hp
mu.
Sc mnh mu: L mc suy din kt qu thng k trn mu
thnh kt qu ca qun th
Phn loi cc phng php
chn mu
Chn mu
Ngu nhin
Ngu nhin
n
Theo cm
H thng Phn tng
Khng ngu
nhin
Ch tiu
Ch ch
Thun tin
Nm bng
tuyt
Chn mu ngu nhin
Chn mu ngu nhin n
m bo mi c th ca qun th c
la chn vi xc sut nh nhau vo mu
Ghp cp mi c th vi mt s ngu
nhin, cc c th c la chn theo s
ngu nhin ca con s.

Xc sut la chn =
C mu
Tng s c th ca qun th
Chn mu ngu nhin n
Khong cch gia cc c th l ngu nhin, khng c quy lut no
u im
Khng cn nhiu thng tin v qun th
Tnh ga tr cao, xc nh c sai s
thng k
D dng phn tch d liu
Hn ch
Tn km
Yu cu danh sch c th trong qun th
Khng cn chuyn mn ca nghin cu
vin
Nguy c sai s ngu nhin
Chn mu h thng
C th u tin c la chn ngu nhin
trong qun th, cc c th tip theo c
la chn theo mt khong cch xc nh
so vi c th trc . Khong cch xc
nh c gi l khong cch mu =
Tng s c th ca qun th/ c mu
Chn mu h thng
Khong cch gia cc c th bng nhau
Mang tnh quy lut
u im
Chi ph hp l, hay c s dng
Tnh ga tr cao, xc nh c sai s
thng k
Cc c th d tip cn
Hn ch
Sai s chu k do bn thn danh sch c
th cng c th c tnh chu k
Yu cu danh sch c th ca qun th

Chn mu phn tng
Chia qun th theo mt c tnh c th thnh cc
nhm/ tng (strata) (V d: Chia qun th sinh
vin trng HY H Ni thnh 3 nhm/ tng: hc
vin tin s, hc vin thc s v hc vin i hc).
Cc c th trong mi tng ng nht, nhng
khng ng nht gia cc tng.
C th p dng chn mu ngu nhin n hay
chn mu h thng mi tng (strata). S mu
mi tng tham gia vo tng mu c th bng
nhau (chn mu phn tng khng cn xng) hay
t l vi s c th ca mi tng (chn mu phn
tng cn xng)

Tng 1
Tng 2
N= 2000 N = 6000
Chn mu phn tng khng cn xng
1000 1000
Tng 1
Tng 2
N= 2000 N = 6000
Chn mu phn tng cn xng
1000 3000
u im
m bo mi nhm u c tnh i din
trong tng mu
Mi nhm u c thng k v so snh
Gim sai s h thng
Hn ch
Yu cu thng tin chnh xc v t l gia
cc tng
Chi ph c c danh sch mi tng
Chn mu theo cm/ chm
Cm y l cm a l ni cc cc th
sinh sng. u tin l chn cm, sau
mi chn c th trong cm.
Phng php hay c s dng khi
khng c danh sch c th ca qun th
Cc loi chn mu theo cm/ chm
Chn mu theo cm 2 bc:
Chn cm chn c th trong cm
Chn mu theo cm nhiu bc:
V d: chn 7 vng sinh thi Vit
Nam, chn 1 tnh mi vng sinh
thi, chn 1 huyn 1 tnh, chn 1 x
1 huyn, 1 thn/ bn 1 x, chn
200 h gia nh 1 thn/ bn theo c
mu.
u im
Ch ph thp/ hy s dng
Khng yu cu danh sch c th ca c qun
th, ch yu cu danh sch cm, tiu cm, tiu
tiu cm, v danh sch c th ca n v cm
cui cng
Xc nh c c im ca c cm v qun th
u tin dng khi qun th qu ln, v d nh c
mt quc gia.
Hn ch
Sai s ln hn so vi cc phng php ngu
nhin khc
Phn loi cc phng php
chn mu
Chn mu
Ngu nhin
Ngu nhin
n
Theo cm
H thng Phn tng
Khng ngu
nhin
Ch tiu
Ch ch
Thun tin
Nm bng
tuyt
Chn mu khng ngu nhin
Chn mu thun tin
C th c la chn vo mu mt cch
thun tin, sn c v d tip cn.
Ti sao dng: nhanh v chi ph thp
Phi gii trnh v nh gi gi tr nu
chn mu thun tin.
u im
Chi ph rt thp
Hay c s dng
Khng cn danh sch c th trong qun
th
Hn ch
bin thin v sai s khng o lng
v kim sot c.
Kh gii trnh vic suy lun kt qu thng
k trn mu ra ca qun th.
Chn mu c ch ch (Judgment or
Purposive Sampling)
Chn c th c mt s c tnh mong
mun vo mu vi ch ch ca nghin
cu vin.

u im
Chi ph va phi
Hay c s dng
Mu la chn m bo c mc tiu

Hn ch
Sai s!
Kh gii trnh vic suy lun kt qu thng
k trn mu ra ca qun th.

Chn mu theo ch tiu
Mu m bo c tnh ca qun th, i
din mt mc m nghin cu vin
mong mun
u im
Chi ph va phi
Rt hay s dng
Khng yu cu danh sch c th trong
qun th
C phn no tnh cht ca chn mu
phn tng
Hn ch
Khng o lng v gii trnh c bin
thin v sai s

Chn mu Nm bng tuyt
(Snowball sampling)
Chn mu bt u t mt c th, c
chn mt cch ngu nhin hay khng
ngu nhin. Cc c th tip theo c
chn t c th ban u hay trc ,
ging nh tr chi nm bng tuyt, ai
trng th c la chn.
u im
Chi ph thp
Hu ch trong mt s trng hp c th
Dng xc nh nhng qun th him
Hn ch
Sai s do c th la chn khng hon
ton c lp
Kh gii trnh vic suy din kt qu thng
k trn mu ra ca qun th.
Tnh ton c mu
Thng tin/ d liu cn thit
Loi nghin cu
Cc thut ton thng k s dng
c tnh ca c th - Th hin qua bin s (khc bit c
bn gia bin lin tc bin phn hng). Kt qu cc
nghin cu trc c a vo lm c s tnh ton
tin cy (95%, 90%)
Ga tr p chp nhn kt qu kim nh (0,05/ 0,001)
Mc bin thin ca kt qu mu so vi kt qu thc
ca qun th ( chnh xc tng i)
Sc mnh ca mu ni ln mc kt qu mu i
din cho kt qu ca qun th
Tnh ton c mu
Tnh ton c mu n gin:
Da vo cng thc c bn,
Khng tnh n thit k nghin cu,
Khng tnh n cc thut ton thng k s
dng trong thit k
Tnh ton n gin, bng my calculator
thng thng
Thng khng chnh xc, ch c tnh cht gii
trnh mc chn mu v tnh c mu
trong cng hay bo co nghin cu.
Tnh ton c mu
Tnh ton c mu nng cao:
Da vo mt s phn mm tnh ton c mu tt
(V d: Sampling Size for Health Studies ca
WHO)
cp mt s thit k nghin cu c bn +
thut ton thng k hay s dng cho thit k +
bin s/ d liu lin qua
C cng thc tnh c mu cho gii trnh, phi
chp mn hnh, lu dng jpg
Chnh xc hn tnh ton c mu n gin
Cha ton din so vi tnh ton c mu chuyn
nghip
Giao din chn cc thit k nghin cu trong phn
mn tnh c mu nng cao
Giao din tnh ton c mu
tnh ra
c mu
Nhp gi tr
mong mun
cho mu
Cng thc my
tnh tnh c mu
cho thit k
Tnh ton c mu chuyn nghip
Da vo phn mm tnh ton c mu chuyn nghip,
trong gi SAS, hoc chuyn nghip vi n-query. Phn
mm rt t (c 1 triu USD cho SAS, 1050 USD cho
nquery). Hc vin c nhu cu hc thm ng dng ca
phn mm nquery c th lin h vi gio vin
Nghin cu vin nhp thit k nghin cu, thut ton
thng k s dng v cc d liu lin quan n bin s
vo phn mm tnh ra c mu. Nghin cu vin c
th phn tch nhy mi lin quan gia Sc mnh mu
v c mu. Nghin cu vin phi c kin thc chuyn
su v thit k nghin cu v cc thut ton thng k
c th s dng c phn mm cng nh phin gii kt
qu.

Loi
thit k
Bc 1: Nhp
d liu v thit
k nghin cu,
tc ng v
thut ton thng
k phn tch
4 bc s dng phn mn nquery tnh ton c mu chuyn nghip
Loi d
liu u ra
S nhm
mu
Loi phn
tch thng
k
C th ha
nhp liu
thut ton
thng k
Nhp gi tr c th ca bin s
v mong mun c tnh mu
Bc 2: Xc
nh gi tr c
th ca bin s
v mong mun
c tnh mu
4 bc s dng phn mn nquery tnh ton c mu chuyn nghip
Cc tnh ra
c mu
Nhp gi tr c th ca bin s
v mong mun c tnh mu
Bc 3: Xc
nh sc mnh
mu t cc c
mu v ngc
li
4 bc s dng phn mn nquery tnh ton c mu chuyn nghip
Cc kt
qu
Bc 4: Phn
tch nhy ca
mi quan h
Sc mnh mu
C mu
4 bc s dng phn mn nquery tnh ton c mu chuyn nghip
Biu ca
phn tch
nhy
Tnh ton c mu c bn
3 cng thc c bn (phn in m l cng thc gc):
- T trung bnh n = (ZS/E)
2
= (Z(d-c)/E)
2

= N(ZS/E)
2
/(N-1) =(ZS/E)
2
- T t l n = Z
2
p(1-p)/ E
2
= Z
2
Np(1-p)/ E2 (N-1)+ Z2 pq

- T phn v n = pc(100-pc) Z
2
/ E
2
- Z cho mc tin cy 95% = 1.96, 99% = 2.58
- Cng thc trn c th m rng ra
- Qun th c s lng mu xc nh v khng xc nh bng
cch nhn hoc khng vi h s N/(N-1),
- T l d bo xc nh v khng xc nh bng cch nhn v
khng vi h s p*(1-p)
- Qun th xc bin thin hay khng bin thin bng cch nhn
v khng nhn vi bnh phng lch chun, bnh phng
1/6 (hiu gi tr ln nht gi tr thp nht)
Cng ty A quyt nh tuyn sinh vin mi tt
nghip. Gim c cn quyt nh mc lng cnh
tranh. T kinh nghim ca cc cng ty khc cho
thy, lng sinh vin mi ra trng giao ng t
3,8 4,2 triu, mc trung bnh l 3,9 triu. lch
chun vo mc 0,3 triu.
Cng ty mun lm mt nghin cu nh, la chn
mt s sinh vin lm mu, v mun suy kt qu
mc lng trung bnh ca nhm sinh vin trong
mu suy ra mc lng trung bnh ca tt c sinh
vin mi tt nghip. tin cy: 95%, v gi tr x
ch trong khong +/- 50 nghn.
Hy tnh c mu cho nghin cu ca cng ty?

N = (1,96 x 0,3/ (2 x 0,05))
2
= 34,57


V d 1
V d 2
VTV chun b pht sng mt chng trnh gio dc sc
khe bui sng.
Kinh nghip t VOV sc khe cho thy, chng trnh
gio dc sc khe ch thu ht c 2 trn 10 ngi xem
truyn hnh ti thi im bui sng.
VTV mun lm mt nghin cu nh xc nh c t
l ngi xem chng trnh ca h nu pht sng. H
mun chn mt s ngi xem truyn hnh phng vn.
H mong mun kt qu thng k trn mu phn nh
c kt qu thc s mc x dch +/- 5% v vi tin
cy 99%.
C mu m VTV cn kho st l bao nhiu?

N = 2,58
2
x 0,2 x (1-0,2) / (2 x 0,05)
2
= 106,5
V d 3
Xc nh c mu cn thit iu tra ph n ti
mt x X bit v vic khm thai 3 ln trc
sinh l cn thit. Khong tin cy l 95% vi sai
s 5%.
Mt nghin cu tin hnh cch y 2 nm cho
thy 40% ph n c hi ni bit khm thai
3 ln trc sinh l cn thit.

N = 0,4 x (1-0,4) x (1,96/ (2 x 0,05))
2
= 92,19
Chn mu t qun th
BN1 BN11 BN21 BN31 BN41 BN51 BN61 BN71 BN81 BN91
BN2 BN12 BN22 BN32 BN42 BN52 BN62 BN72 BN82 BN92
BN3 BN13 BN23 BN33 BN43 BN53 BN63 BN73 BN83 BN93
BN4 BN14 BN24 BN34 BN44 BN54 BN64 BN74 BN84 BN94
BN5 BN15 BN25 BN35 BN45 BN55 BN65 BN75 BN85 BN95
BN6 BN16 BN26 BN36 BN46 BN56 BN66 BN76 BN86 BN96
BN7 BN17 BN27 BN37 BN47 BN57 BN67 BN77 BN87 BN97
BN8 BN18 BN28 BN38 BN48 BN58 BN68 BN78 BN88 BN98
BN9 BN19 BN29 BN39 BN49 BN59 BN69 BN79 BN89 BN99
BN10 BN20 BN30 BN40 BN50 BN60 BN70 BN90 BN90
BN100
C 100 bnh nhn t BN1 n BN100
Bi tp chn mu t qun th
Hy chn 30 bnh nhn mt cch ngu nhin t 100 bnh
nhn bng 3 cch
Cch 1: Ct 100 mnh giy, ghi tn 100 bnh nhn, cho
vo 1 ci r, ri nhm mt, th tay vo r, ly ra 30 t
Cch 2: In danh sch 100 bnh nhn ra, m bng s ngu
nhin, cho BN1 mt s ngu nhin bt k trong bng, 99
bnh nhn tip theo cng nhn c mt s ngu nhin
tip theo t s ngu nhin ca BN1
Cch 3: Dng hm rand() trong Excel cho mi bnh nhn
mt s ngu nhin, tro bnh nhn bng sort, la chn 30
bnh nhn t trn xung di

Hy chn 30 bnh nhn h thng t 100 bnh nhn


Tnh ton c mu nng cao
- Hc vin mang theo my tnh thc
hnh
- Hc vin copy phn mm Sample Size
Determination in Health Studies
Bi tp 1.1.1
Trung tm y t d phng huyn X mun
xc nh t l hin nhim ca bnh lao
trong nhm tr em di 5 tui trn a
bn. Mu nghin cu cn bao nhiu tr
khi kt qu ca mu ch bin thin di
10% so vi gi tr tht ca qun th, vi
95% tin cy. Ngoi ra, t l hin nhim
c bit khng vt qu 10%.

Kt qu: 139
Bi tp 1.1.2
Vin v sinh dch t trung ng mun xc
nh t l tr em trong ton quc c
tim phng ng theo quy nh. Mu
nghin cu cn bao nhiu tr nu mun
kt qu ca mu nghin cu x dch 5%
so vi kt qu thc ca qun th, vi
tin cy l 95%
Kt qu: 385
Bi tp 1.3.1
T l thnh cng ca mt can thip tim mch
ngoi khoa X c bo co trong y vn l 70%.
Mt phng php mi Y c xut mang
li hiu qu tng t. Mt c s iu tr khng
c nng lc ngoi khoa mun p dng phng
php iu tr mi Y. Trc h cn phi
nghin cu bao nhiu bnh nhn kim nh
gi thuyt phng php mi cng c t l
thnh cng l 70% vi p = 0,05. Nghin cu
mun c mt sc mnh 90% rng gi tr x
dch +/- 5%.
Kt qu: 912
Bi tp 2.1.2
Mt nghin cu vi 50 cng nhn ang tham
gia mt d n thy li cho thy 40% s h b
nhim sn mng. Mt nghin cu tng t
cng vi 50 cng nhn nhng khng lm cho
d n thy li no, t l nhim sn mng ch l
32%. Mt nhm dch t hc mun tin hnh
mt nghin cu ln hn c c kt qu
khc bit gia hai nhm mc p=0,05, vi
mc tin cy 95% th h phi la chn bao
nhiu cng nhn mi nhm cho nghin cu.
Kt qu: 704
Bi tp 2.2.2
mt nghin cu, mt nhm dch t hc so snh
50 bnh nhn mc mt bnh thn kinh vi 50 bnh
nhn khng mc bnh lm nhm chng. 30 ngi
thuc nhm bnh nhn (60%) v 25 ngi thuc
nhm chng (50%) i bin, nh bt c. Gi nh
t l ngi lm ngh i bin, nh bt c trong
qun th tng ng, v nhm dch t hc mun
lm mt nghin cu ln hn c hai nhm bnh
v chng, tnh ra c s khc bit gia hai
nhm vi mc tin cy 90% v p = 0,05, th mu h
phi chn mi nhm l bao nhiu?
Kt qu: 519
Bi tp 3.1.1
Ti th trn X, bnh t ang l mt vn sc khe
cng ng. Khong 30% ngi dn tin rng h
ang phi s dng ngun nc nhim ly bnh.
Mt s nghin cu trong y vn cho thy ngun
nc nhim c nguy c lm ngi dn nhim
bnh cao gp 2 ln v vi mc tin cy 95%, x
dch trong 25%. Nhm nghin cu n th trn X
phi chn bao nhiu mu bnh nhn v nhm
chng xc nh xem ngun nc ni y c
phi l nguyn nhn dn n s ly lan ca bnh
t hay khng?
Kt qu: 408
Bi tp 4.1.1
Mt nhm nghin cu dch t hc ln k hoch
nghin cu xc nh xc sut bnh phi X c lin
quan n cht Y nhim trong khng kh. Mu
nghin cu hai nhm c v khng tip xc vi
cht Y l bao nhiu? nu nghin cu mun xc
nh nguy c tng i ti 50% gi tr thc ca
qun th v vi tin cy 95%. T trong y vn,
bnh phi X ang phi bin mc 20% trong
nhm ngi khng phi nhim vi cht Y.
Kt qu: 44
Bi tp 4.2.1
Hai phng php iu tr mt bnh ung th c nh gi
trong mt nghin cu thun tp th nghim lm sng.
Ngi bnh c la chn ngu nhin cho mi phng
php iu tr v c theo di tnh trng ti pht bnh trong
5 nm. Phng php iu tr A l mt phng php mi
gim mt na nguy c ti pht trong 5 nm u. 35% ngi
bnh c iu tr bng phng php iu tr B ti pht
trong 5 nm u. Mu bnh nhn mi nhm iu tr A v B
l bao nhiu nu nhm nghin cu mun c mc tin cy
90% c th loi tr gi thuyt Ho (Nguy c tng i =1).
Nu khng th kim nh c chp nhn tin cy
p=0,05.
Kt qu: 131
Bi tp 6.1.1
Mu bnh nhn l bao nhiu nu nhm
nghin cu mun xc nh t l mc mi
ca mt bnh x dch trong khong 10%
gi tr thc ca qun th, mc tin cy
95%.
Kt qu: 385
Bi tp 6.2.2
Trn c s s liu 5 nm ca BV X, theo di
mt s lng nh bnh nhn mc bnh X, t l
mc mi bnh ny c bo co l 40%.
Nhm dch t hc cn nghin cu trn bao
nhiu bnh nhn kim nh xem t l mc
mi bnh X trn cng ng c ng l 40% vi
p=0,05 hay khng? Nghin cu c mong
mun c mt sc mnh 80% xc nh t l mi
thc hng nm l 50%.
Kt qu: 146
Bi tp 6.3.2
bit v tc ng lu di ca ting n ti sc khe,
nhm nghin cu A ln k hoch theo di dc, so snh
hai nhm cng nhn lm vic trong mi trng c ting
n v t ting n. Y vn c nu t l suy gim thnh lc
hng nm ca cng nhn lm trong mi trng n o
l 25%. Mu nghin cu phi l bao nhiu mi nhm
kim nh loi b Ho (gia hai nhm khng c s
khc bit). Ga thuyt Ha l t l gim thnh lc hng
nm cng nhn lm vic trong mi trng t ting n
l 10%. mnh ca kim nh l 80%, p=0,05
Kt qu: 23
Bi tp 7.2.2
Y vn c mt bi ghi nam gii cao huyt p c cn
nng trung bnh l 70kg. Tuy nhin, ngi ta cho rng,
nam gii Vit Nam cao huyt p khng nng nh vy
v mun lm mt nghin cu kim tra iu . C
mu phi l bao nhiu nu mun kim nh vi gi tr
p=0,05 v sc mnh ca mu l 90%, gi tr cn nng
chp nhn sai lch mc 5 kg, s bin thin/ lch
chun l 20 kg.
Kt qu: 169
Bi tp 8.1.1
Y vn c ni t l tr em nhim giun a cc nc
pht trin l 30%. Trung tm y t huyn A c 4000 tr
di 5 tui, mun lm mt nghin cu, chn mt s tr
kim tra phn. H mun kt qu nghin cu trn
mu nghin cu ca h ch chnh lch 5% so vi c
qun th 4000, mc tin cy 95%. S tr m Trung
tm chn t 4000 chu phi l bao nhiu?
Kt qu: 977
Bi tp 8.2.1
3 huyn min ni A, B, C c s h gia nh l 2000,
3000 v 5000. Mt on nh gi nhanh ca B NN &
PTNN cho thy t l h gia nh s dng nc sch
hp v sinh l 10% 1 x huyn A, 15% 1 x huyn
B v 20% 1 x huyn C. S Y t nghi ng kt qu
ny v mun lm mt nghin cu xc nh t l thc
s h gia nh s dng nc sch 3 huyn l bao
nhiu. H c mt t tin tip cn h gia nh kho
st, mun chn mu v mun kt qu thng k trn
mu ch x dch 2 % so vi ton b qun th 10000 h
3 huyn, tin cy 95% cho cc kt qu thng k.
Kt qu: 1158