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Pakistan and Afghanistan in the eye of the storm

Pakistan and Afghanistan in the eye of the storm

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03/18/2014

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Pakistan and Afghanistan in the Eye of the Storm INSS Insight No, 106, May 10,
2009
Schweitzer, Yoram and Asculai, Ephraim

Over the past weeks, the US has accelerated efforts to confront the danger to world peace and its own security arising from the security situation in Pakistan. In a statement to Congress, Secretary of State Hilary Clinton was quoted as saying that the ongoing deterioration in the internal security situation of the nuclear Islamic country and the possibility that its government would fall into the hands of extreme Islamic elements constituted a danger to the US and world peace. Secretary Clinton's remarks implied criticism of the agreement signed by Pakistani president Asif Ali Zardari with the Taliban, an agreement that in effect recognized the latter\u2019s control of the Swat valley, which enables it to impose its control and extreme religious way of life on the residents of the region (including gross violations of women\u2019s rights).

Soon thereafter President Barack Obama himself became involved by urgently summoning Zardari and Afghan president Hamid Karzai to discuss the burning issues. The first topic he raised was the war against the Taliban in the western regions of Pakistan and Afghanistan. There is no doubt that Obama\u2019s purpose here was to motivate his guests to combat the Taliban more vigorously, since a collapse on this front would be disastrous. The second and closely related topic is the nuclear question and the concern that such weapons could fall into the hands of parties identified with extremist Islam, especially al-Qaeda.The situation on the ground is not at all encouraging. Taliban forces recently advanced within

110 kilometers of the Pakistani capital of Islamabad and conquered the Buner district. These small forces encountered no significant resistance in their advance and will probably be able to advance further, although at the orders of their commanders, they halted and \u2013 surprisingly \u2013 withdrew. This may have been a sophisticated tactical move, apparently designed to preserve the forces by refraining from a premature advance that would be liable to place the US in a position where it might have no choice but to intervene with massive force in order to prevent a takeover of key strongholds in Pakistan. The Taliban prefers a coup by internal Pakistani forces that will enable it to promote its goals without suffering unnecessary losses.

The great concern about extremist Islamic parties rising to power in Pakistan relates primarily to the store of nuclear weapons at the government\u2019s disposal, estimated at 60-120 nuclear warheads. A danger exists that a change in regime will provide radical elements with access to these nuclear weapons. This is liable to end in a willingness to use these weapons against enemies, or at least to pass on some of the know-how about the production to terrorist factions, such as al-Qaeda and its affiliates. Such a situation is liable to turn one of the West\u2019s biggest nightmares into a reality that radically affects the danger posed by terrorist organizations to countries perceived to be enemies of Islam, especially the US and its closes allies, including Israel.

The main risk here of nuclear weapons use is the possibility that an extremist government will be formed in Pakistan. Only a government can use nuclear weapons, since the country probably has a command and control system that prevents individuals from taking over and using these weapons. The nuclear components are held separately, far from the explosives. According to reports, the weapons, if assembled, can be used only if people from separate authorities activate the secret codes. On the other hand, the possibility also exists that hostile elements will gain control of enough nuclear materials, if not to produce primitive explosive mechanisms, then to frighten and threaten. This is a particularly troubling option, even if it is not fully realized. In this extreme case, it is possible that the US would decide to take over the nuclear parts or destroy them. In any event, it would be a risky move liable to inflame the entire region.

The Taliban\u2019s main goal is first to regain control of the government in Afghanistan, or at least control of the rural areas, particularly the mountainous regions adjoining the border with Pakistan. From these regions, the Taliban can expand its access into Pakistan, and obtain a solid territorial basis for any future adventure. A possible victory of the Taliban over Karzai\u2019s pro-Western government in Afghanistan, and its return to power there only eight years after forcefully being driven out by the Western coalition headed by the US, is liable to have a decisive influence on escalation of violent subversion by other Muslim armed groups around the world, especially those that regard themselves as belonging to the global Sunnimuqaw ama movement that is challenging pragmatic Arab regimes and Western hegemony.

In addition Afghanistan's becoming once again a stronghold of local and regional radicalism, it is liable as in the past to serve as a training base for terrorists from all over the world. These groups will be able to use Afghan territory as training camps and springboards for terrorist attacks under the auspices

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