Forum Poll: July 21, 2014

MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President

lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
416.960.9603
FORIMMEDIATERELEASE
Chow'sVoteShareDown;Tory,FordStable
LeadingCandidatesNowTied
TORONTOJULY21th,2014Inarandomsamplingofpublicopiniontakenbythe
ForumPollamong1063Torontovoters,roughlyequalproportionswillvotefor
eachofthethreeleadingcandidatesinthefullfivewayTorontomayoralrace,
whereasOliviaChowprevailswhenonlythemaincontendersrun.Meanwhile,John
Toryhasasolidleadincandidateapproval.
TORONTO
July 21st, 2014
HIGHLIGHTS:
Roughlyequalproportions
willvoteforeachofthethree
leadingcandidatesinthefull
fivewayTorontomayoral
LeadingCandidatesTieVote
race,whereasOliviaChow
prevailswhenonlythemain
Inthefivewaymatchup,consideringthefivemaincontenders,Chow(29%),Tory
contendersrun.
(28%)andFord(27%)alldrawequallevelsofsupport,whileKarenStintz(6%)and
Inthefivewaymatchup,
DavidSoknacki(5%)arenotseriouscontenders.Veryfewhavenoopinioninthis
consideringthefivemain
race(4%)orwouldvoteforsomeothercandidate(1%).TheFordvoterisyounger,
contenders,Chow(29%),
hasalowerincome,livesinScarboroughorEtobicoke/YorkandisaprovincialPC
Tory(28%)andFord(27%)all
voter.TheChowsupporterisyounger,lowerincome,livesinthedowntownandisa
drawequallevelsofsupport,
provincialNDPsupporter.TheToryvoterisoldest,wealthier,livesinEtobicoke/York
whileKarenStintz(6%)and
orNorthYorkandvotesLiberalprovincially.
DavidSoknacki(5%)arenot
Whenjustthethreeleadingcandidatesaretested,OliviaChowprevails(35%)
seriouscontenders.
againstJohnTory(32%)andRobFord(27%).Fewchoosesomeoneelse(2%)orare
Amongthoseawareofhim
unsure(3%).
(93%),JohnToryenjoysthe
approvaloftwothirds(67%),
ToryHasHighestApprovals
comparedtojustmorethan
Amongthoseawareofhim(93%),JohnToryenjoystheapprovaloftwothirds
halfforChow(54%approval
(67%),comparedtojustmorethanhalfforChow(54%approvaloutof96%
outof96%awareness).
awareness).KarenStintz(44%approval)andDavidSoknacki(48%)haveapproval
Justlessthanthreeinten
levelsjustbelowChow's,buttheyarelesswellknown(85%and66%awareness,
willvoteforFordwithno
respectively).RobFord,ontheotherhand,hastheapprovalofjustonethird(33%).
othercandidatesnamed
Sincewelastpolled(July2),Tory'sapprovalshaveincreased(from63%),Chow's
(28%),andthisisconsidered
havedeclined(from57%).ApprovalsforStintz,SoknackiandFordaregenerally
themeasureof"Ford
stable.
Nation",whichstoodatone
FordNationStabilizes
quarter(25%)lastmonth.
JustlessthanthreeintenwillvoteforFordwithnoothercandidatesnamed(28%),
andthisisconsideredthemeasureof"FordNation",whichstoodatonequarter
(25%)lastmonth.Fordnationcomprisestheyoungest(35%),males(34%),theleast
wealthy(44%),inScarborough(38%),theleasteducated(42%),provincialPCvoters
(46%)andthoseofCaribbeanethnicbackground(59%caution,smallbasesize).
180BloorStreetW.,#1400
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6In10CallforFordtoResign
Justlessthan6in10votersthinkRobFordshouldresign(59%)andthisisdown
slightlyfromthebeginningofthemonth(62%).
TORONTO
July 21st, 2014
"ItappearsthatRobFordisnotgoingawayanytimesoon,butneitherhashebeen
HIGHLIGHTS:
abletomaintainhisprerehablevelsofpopularity,evenamongthedemographic
groupsweknowaresympathetictohim.JohnTory,onceasecondplacecontestant, Justlessthan6in10voters
isnowinthefrontranks,butitappearsadvantageisstilltoChow,"saidForum
thinkRobFordshouldresign
ResearchPresident,Dr.LorneBozinoff.
(59%)andthisisdown
slightlyfromthebeginningof
LorneBozinoff,Ph.D.isthepresidentandfounderofForumResearch.Hecanbe
themonth(62%).
reachedatlbozinoff@forumresearch.comorat(416)9609603.
"ItappearsthatRobFordis
notgoingawayanytime
soon,butneitherhashe
beenabletomaintainhis
prerehablevelsof
popularity,evenamongthe
demographicgroupswe
knowaresympatheticto
him.JohnTory,oncea
secondplacecontestant,is
nowinthefrontranks,butit
appearsadvantageisstillto
Chow,"saidForumResearch
President,Dr.LorneBozinoff.
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Methodology
TheForumPollwasconductedbyForumResearchwiththeresultsbasedonan
interactivevoiceresponsetelephonesurveyof1063randomlyselected
Torontonians18yearsofageandolder.ThepollwasconductedonJuly21st,
2014.
TORONTO
July 21st, 2014
Resultsbasedonthetotalsampleareconsideredaccurate3%,19timesoutof
20.Subsampleresultswillbelessaccurate.Marginsoferrorforsubsample(such
asage,gender)resultsareavailableatwww.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp
Whereappropriate,thedatahasbeenstatisticallyweightedbyage,region,and
othervariablestoensurethatthesamplereflectstheactualpopulationaccording
tothelatestCensusdata.
Thisresearchisnotnecessarilypredictiveoffutureoutcomes,butrather,
capturesopinionatonepointintime.ForumResearchconductedthispollasa
publicserviceandtodemonstrateoursurveyresearchcapabilities.Forumhouses
itspollresultsintheDataLibraryoftheDepartmentofPoliticalScienceatthe
UniversityofToronto.
WithofficesacrossCanadaandaroundtheworld,100%CanadianownedForum
Researchisoneofthecountrysleadingsurveyresearchfirms.ThisForum
PollandotherpollsmaybefoundatForum'spollarchive
atwww.forumresearch.com/polls.asp
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
MayorRobFordApprovalTrending
%
Sample Approve
July21st,2014
1063
33
nd
July2 ,2014
1182
31
June23rd,2014
890
32
th
June6 ,2014
944
28
May21st,2014
923
32
May1st,2014
888
38
April14th,2014
882
46
th
Mar27 ,2014
634
46
Mar13th,2014
1271
42
th
Feb.24 ,2014
1310
44
Feb.6th,2014
769
43
nd
Jan.22 ,2014
1063
45
Jan.6th,2014
1105
47
Dec.9th,2013
898
42
th
Nov.20 ,2013
1049
42
Nov.6th,2013
1157
44
th
Nov.4 ,2013
1393
43
Oct31st,2013
1032
44
th
Oct2829 ,2013
1093
39
Sep23rd,2013
1082
49
Aug29th,2013
848
44
th
July29 ,2013
1368
46
June25th,2013
1239
47
th
May24 ,2013
1395
42
May10th,2013
974
44
th
April11 ,2013
850
43
April5th,2013
484
49
March20th,2013
1045
40
th
March11 ,2013
918
43
Feb.26th28th,2013 876
44
nd
Feb.22 ,2013
806
48
Jan.25th,2013
1099
45
th
Dec.14 ,2012
897
42
Nov.26th,2012
807
42
Nov16th17th,2012 848
45
th
Oct25 ,2012
614
44
Sep28th29th,2012 833
41
th
th
Sep7 8 ,2012
834
42
Disapprove
67
69
66
69
65
62
54
54
58
56
57
55
53
58
58
56
57
56
61
51
56
54
53
58
56
57
50
60
57
56
52
55
58
58
55
56
59
58
TORONTO
July 21st, 2014
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
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VotingforFordin2014Trending
%
Sample Yes No Dontknow
July21st,2014 1063
28 66 6
nd
July2 ,2014
1182
25 69 6
June23rd,2014 890
29 65 6
June6th,2014 944
22 73 5
st
May21 ,2014 923
25 69 7
May1st,2014
888
25 68 7
th
April14 ,2014 882
29 63 8
Mar13th,2014 1271
31 62 7
th
Feb.24 ,2014 1310
38 57 5
Feb.6th,2014
769
37 59 4
Jan.22nd,2014 1063
37 57 6
th
Jan.6 ,2014
1105
41 54 6
Dec.9th,2013
898
33 62 5
th
Nov.20 ,2013 1049
33 62 5
Nov.6th,2013 1157
35 60 5
MayoralCandidateApprovalTrending
%
Sample Ford
st
Chow Tory
July21 ,2014 1063

33
54
nd
July2 ,2014
1182
31
57
June23rd,2014 890
32
57
th
June6 ,2014 944
28
64
May1st,2014
888
38
58
th
April14 ,2014 882
46
60
Mar13th,2014 1271
42
57
ShouldFordResignTrending
%
Sample ShouldResign
July21st,2014 1063
59
nd
July2 ,2014
1182
62
June19th,2014 890
58
th
June6 ,2014 944
63
May21st,2014 923
63
May1st,2014
888
63
th
Dec.9 ,2013 898
60
Nov.20th,2013 1049
62
th
Nov.6 ,2013 1157
61
Nov.4th,2013 1393
59
67
63
61
68
69
65
57
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
TORONTO
July 21st, 2014
Stintz
Soknacki
44
41
41
46
47
46
37
48
44
47
54
56
47
38
ShouldNotResign
37
34
37
33
32
31
35
36
35
38
Dontknow
5
4
5
4
5
6
4
2
4
3
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
5WayMayoralTrialHeatsTrending
Ford/Chow/Stintz/Tory/Soknacki
%
st
July21 ,2014
July2nd,2014
June23rd,2014
June6th,2014
st
May21 ,2014
April14th,2014
Mar27th,2014
Mar13th,2014
Feb25,2014
Feb.6th,2014
Jan.22nd,2014
Jan.6th,2014
Dec.9th,2013
Nov.20th,2013
Nov.6th,2013
Nov.4th,2013
Oct.31st,2013
Oct.29th,2013
Sample
1063
1182
890
944
923
882
634
1271
1310
769
1063
1105
898
1049
1157
1393
1032
1093
Rob
Ford
27
26
27
20
24
27
32
28
31
30
30
35
25
31
29
26
24
27
Olivia
Chow
29
36
34
38
36
34
33
36
31
35
31
30
32
34
28
32
29
32
Karen
Stintz
6
3
3
4
3
6
5
5
6
6
7
5
7
7
12
10
11
11
John
Tory
28
27
24
28
27
24
21
22
27
22
24
22
27
22
25
25
25
21
David
Soknacki
5
4
6
5
3
4
4
2
2
3
4
3
4
4
2
2
3
2
Dont
Know
4
4
6
5
6
5
5
7
3
5
4
5
5
3
5
7
7
7
TORONTO
July 21st, 2014
Ford/Tory/Chow
Sample
%
st
July21 ,2014
July2nd,2014
June23rd,2014
June6th,2014
May21st,2014
April14th,2014
Mar13th,2014
Feb25,2014
June25,2013
May24,2013
May10,2013
Aug9,2012
1063
1182
890
944
923
882
1271
1310
1239
1395
974
812
RobFord
JohnTory
OliviaChow
DontKnow
27
28
28
22
27
30
28
32
30
27
36
26
32
30
29
30
31
29
25
33
25
24
15
24
35
38
37
42
36
36
38
32
40
42
40
39
3
4
6
6
6
5
8
3
5
8
9
11
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
RobFord/Stintz/Tory/Chow/Soknacki
Ifamayoralelectionwereheldtoday,whowouldyouvoteforifthe
candidateswereRobFord,KarenStintz,JohnTory,OliviaChow,andDavid
Soknacki?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
%
Sample
RobFord
KarenStintz
JohnTory
OliviaChow
DavidSoknacki
Someothercandidate
Don'tknow
TORONTO
July 21st, 2014
Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female

1063
27
6
28
29
5
1
4
80
33
9
12
32
9
0
5
106
23
5
36
27
3
1
5
214
28
7
27
29
4
1
4
276
25
2
35
28
5
1
4
387
22
1
41
29
3
1
3
462
35
3
25
28
6
1
2
601
20
8
30
31
5
0
6
Region
%
Sample
RobFord
KarenStintz
JohnTory
OliviaChow
DavidSoknacki
Someother
candidate
Don'tknow
1063
27
6
28
29
5
TorontoorEast
York
396
15
5
28
41
6
North
York
228
30
10
30
23
4
Etobicokeor
York
230
34
2
31
23
7
Total
Scarborough
209
34
5
20
27
4
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
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Ethnicity
%
Sample
RobFord
KarenStintz
JohnTory
OliviaChow
David
Soknacki
Someother
candidate
Don'tknow
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
1063
27
6
28
29
610
23
6
30
30
British
Islesor
Ireland
101
19
5
27
42
11
10
Total Canadian
Other
European
South
Asian
163
31
5
32
21
43
23
8
31
33
54
24
4
24
40
45
62
7
13
8
39
36
0
8
33
Asian Caribbean Other
TORONTO
July 21st, 2014
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
RobFord/Tory/Chow
Ifamayoralelectionwereheldtoday,whowouldyouvoteforifthe
candidateswereRobFord,JohnToryandOliviaChow?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
TORONTO
July 21st, 2014
Sample
RobFord
JohnTory
OliviaChow
Someothercandidate
Don'tknow
1063
27
32
35
2
3
80
35
18
42
3
2
106
23
39
32
2
5
214
28
33
32
3
4
276
24
39
32
2
4
387
22
43
31
1
4
462
33
28
33
2
3
601
22
35
36
3
4
Region
1063
27
32
35
TorontoorEast
York
396
16
30
49
North
York
228
27
36
29
Etobicokeor
York
230
35
34
27
Total
Sample
RobFord
JohnTory
OliviaChow
Someother
candidate
Don'tknow
Scarborough
209
35
27
31
Ethnicity
1063
27
32
610
24
34
British
Islesor
Ireland
101
21
31
35
37
44
25
41
44
16
33
11
Total Canadian
Sample
RobFord
JohnTory
Olivia
Chow
Someother
candidate
Don'tknow
Other
European
South
Asian
163
32
37
43
22
32
54
18
29
45
58
18
39
36
18
Asian Caribbean other
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
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ApprovalofTory
DoyouapproveordisapproveofJohnTory?
[HeardofJohnTory]
Age/Gender
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
TORONTO
July 21st, 2014
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
1016
67
33
70
64
36
99
69
31
204
66
34
265
64
36
378
74
26
438
63
37
578
72
28
Region
Total TorontoorEastYork NorthYork EtobicokeorYork Scarborough
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
1016
67
33
386
66
34
212
74
26
222
61
39
196
68
32
Transportation/OwnProperty
%
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
Total Drive TTCorotherpublictransit Other
Yes
1016
67
33
735 281
70 62
30 38
384
67
33
294
66
34
88
73
27
No
HouseholdIncome
Total <$20K
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
1016
67
33
72
48
52
$20
$40K
144
54
46
$40
$60K
149
66
34
$60
$80K
142
68
32
$80
$100K
104
69
31
$100
$250K
182
75
25
$250K+
39
76
24
Ethnicity
%
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
British
Other
South
Total Canadian Islesor
European Asian
Ireland
1016
595
98
154
36
47
42
37
67
68
74
72
69
59
66
50
33
32
26
28
10
31
41
34
50
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
ApprovalofChow
DoyouapproveordisapproveofOliviaChow?
[HeardofOliviaChow]
Age/Gender
TORONTO
July 21st, 2014

416.960.9603
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
1038
54
46
75
60
40
103
54
46
210
54
46
270
49
51
380
50
50
448
51
49
590
58
42
Region
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
1038
54
46
389
67
33
221
45
55
222
51
49
206
51
49
%
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
Yes
1038
54
46
748 290
49 64
51 36
387
46
54
307
62
38
95
71
29
No
HouseholdIncome
Total <$20K
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
1038
54
46
78
54
46
$20
$40K
147
65
35
$40
$60K
154
57
43
$60
$80K
144
69
31
$80
$100K
105
35
65
$100
$250K
183
56
44
$250K+
38
41
59
Ethnicity
Total Canadian
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
1038
54
46
598
56
44
British
Islesor
Ireland
99
60
40
Other
European
158
39
61
South
Asian
43
66
34
52
74
26
41
48
52
39
39
61
11
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
ApprovalofStintz
DoyouapproveordisapproveofKarenStintz?
[HeardofKarenStintz]
Age/Gender
TORONTO
July 21st, 2014

416.960.9603
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
921
44
56
70
56
44
89
40
60
183
41
59
241
35
65
338
34
66
399
39
61
522
48
52
Region
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
921
44
56
365
52
48
187
42
58
198
38
62
171
38
62
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
921
44
56
351
37
63
269
51
49
83
50
50
Yes
No
676 245
39 52
61 48
HouseholdIncome
Total <$20K
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
921
44
56
57
54
46
$20
$40K
120
37
63
$40
$60K
131
40
60
$60
$80K
131
43
57
$80
$100K
97
47
53
$100
$250K
176
38
62
$250K+
36
61
39
Ethnicity
Total Canadian
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
921
44
56
557
43
57
British
Islesor
Ireland
95
54
46
Other
European
135
41
59
South
Asian
27
58
42
35
48
52
34
41
59
32
29
71
12
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
ApprovalofRobFord
DoyouapproveordisapproveofRobFord?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
TORONTO
July 21st, 2014

416.960.9603
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
1063
33
67
80
39
61
106
25
75
214
35
65
276
35
65
387
28
72
462
40
60
601
27
73
Region
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
1063
33
67
396
19
81
228
40
60
230
36
64
209
42
58
%
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
Yes
1063
33
67
763 300
32 35
68 65
396
36
64
314
33
67
99
23
77
No
HouseholdIncome
Total <$20K
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
1063
33
67
85
46
54
$20
$40K
158
43
57
$40
$60K
156
44
56
$60
$80K
144
24
76
$80
$100K
106
31
69
$100
$250K
184
19
81
$250K+
39
19
81
Ethnicity
British
Other
South
Total Canadian Islesor
European Asian
Ireland
Sample
1063
610
101
163
43
54
45
39
Approve
33
29
18
37
35
33
63
42
Disapprove
67
71
82
63
65
67
37
58
13
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
VoteRobFordOctoberElection
WillyouvoteforRobFordinthemunicipalelectioninOctoberornot?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
TORONTO
July 21st, 2014

416.960.9603
Sample
WillvoteforRobFord
WillnotvoteforRobFord
Don'tknow
1063
28
66
6
80
35
60
6
106
22
71
7
214
31
66
4
276
25
67
8
387
23
73
4
462
34
60
6
601
23
72
5
Region
1063
28
TorontoorEast
York
396
15
North
York
228
33
Etobicokeor
York
230
30
66
81
62
64
54
Total
Sample
WillvoteforRobFord
WillnotvoteforRob
Ford
Don'tknow
Scarborough
209
38
Ethnicity
1063
610
British
Islesor
Ireland
101
28
25
14
29
25
24
59
53
66
69
83
62
74
72
37
46
Total Canadian
Sample
Will
vote
forRob
Ford
Will
not
vote
forRob
Ford
Don't
know
Other
European
South
Asian
163
43
54
45
39
14
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
RobFordResignation
DoyouthinkMayorFordshouldresignornot?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
TORONTO
July 21st, 2014

416.960.9603
Sample
Thinkheshouldresign
Thinkheshouldnotresign
Don'tknow
1063
59
37
5
80
52
43
4
106
64
29
7
214
61
37
2
276
56
40
5
387
62
32
5
462
55
41
4
601
62
33
5
Region
1063
59
TorontoorEast
York
396
73
North
York
228
51
Etobicokeor
York
230
56
37
23
44
40
45
Total
Sample
Thinkheshouldresign
Thinkheshouldnot
resign
Don'tknow
Scarborough
209
49
Ethnicity
1063
610
British
Islesor
Ireland
101
59
62
80
54
53
56
33
52
37
33
16
42
45
37
57
44
10
Total Canadian
Sample
Thinkhe
should
resign
Thinkhe
shouldnot
resign
Don'tknow
Other
European
South
Asian
163
43
54
45
39
Formoreinformation:
LorneBozinoff,Ph.D.
President
ForumResearchInc.
Tel:(416)9609603
Fax:(416)9609602
Email:lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
15
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
forumresearch.com

Forum Poll: July 21, 2014

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Forum Poll: July 21, 2014

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MEDIA INQUIRIES:

Lorne Bozinoff, President

Lorne Bozinoff, President

Lorne Bozinoff, President

July21 ,2014 1063

Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female

Asian Caribbean Other

Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female

Asian Caribbean other

Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female

Total TorontoorEastYork NorthYork EtobicokeorYork Scarborough

Total Drive TTCorotherpublictransit Other

Lorne Bozinoff, President

Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female

Total TorontoorEastYork NorthYork EtobicokeorYork Scarborough

Total Drive TTCorotherpublictransit Other

Lorne Bozinoff, President

Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female

Total TorontoorEastYork NorthYork EtobicokeorYork Scarborough

Total Drive TTCorotherpublictransit Other

Lorne Bozinoff, President

Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female

Total TorontoorEastYork NorthYork EtobicokeorYork Scarborough

Total Drive TTCorotherpublictransit Other

Lorne Bozinoff, President

Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female

Asian Caribbean Other

Lorne Bozinoff, President

Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female

Asian Caribbean Other

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