Preliminary Toronto Star analysis

of updated Toronto Police

Service carding data
Updated July 23, 2014

7/23/14

Summary
Minor carding rate changes by skin colour from 2008 to
2013. Black and brown skinned people
disproportionately carded
Significant drop in carding in July, 2013, when carding
receipt program began. Arrests and charges also down
Significant changes, post-July, 2013, to proportions of
cards by skin colour. While carding decreased, the
proportion of black and brown cards increased, while
white and other decreased
Significantly more cards in 2013 had no skin colour
specified
Blank TAVIS cards up nearly 50 per cent in 2013
2013 saw a drop in the use of general investigation as
reason for contact
7/23/14

Summary continued
Black people remained more likely than white people in
2013 to be carded in each of the citys 70-plus police
patrol zones.
Overall in Toronto, the likelihood of black people being
carded over white people jumped from three times more
likely to nearly four times more likely, following the drop in
contact carding in July.
In keeping with past Star analyses, areas in 2013 that are
predominantly white saw the highest likelihood of black
people being carded over white people,
Following the post-July drop-off in carding in the city, the
likelihoods of black people being carded over white
people increased in 57 patrol zones, and decreased
slightly or remained the same in 20 patrol areas.
7/23/14

Caveats
Skin colour is identified by
Make up of Torontos population
police as being either White,
Skin colour
%
Black, Brown, or Other.
We have used projected
Black
8.1%
census data to compare rates
we are seeing in the police
54.1%
data to baseline populations in White
Toronto proper
Brown (S. Asian,
14.3%
Where skin colour was part of
W. Asian,
the Star analysis, police entries
Arab)
that did not have skin colour
Other
23.6%
specified were excluded in
Total
100.0%
some of the analyses

7/23/14

Carding 2008 to 2013

Including Blank skin colour cards
Skin
colour

Total
cards

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013*

Blank

179328

8.9

25862

8.0

20529

6.0

30395

8.1

36161

9.4

42952

10.6

23192

12.2

Black

461468

22.8

72821

22.5

84160

24.4

87659

23.5

88301

22.9

87033

21.5

40033

21.1

Brown

308809

15.2

51002

15.8

53767

15.6

55075

14.8

59749

15.5

60479

15.0

27780

14.7

Other

126196

6.2

17390

5.4

19705

5.7

22293

6.0

24975

6.5

28026

6.9

13572

7.2

White

950457

46.9

156382

48.3

166820

48.4

177875

47.6

177129

45.9

185803

46.%

84987

44.8

Total

2026258

100.0

323457

100.0

344981

100.0

373297

100.0

386315

100.0

404293

100.0

189564

100.0

*For 2013, up to November

7/23/14

Carding 2008 to 2013

Not including Blank skin colour cards
Skin
colour

Total
cards

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013*

Black

461468

25.0

72821

24.5

84160

25.9

87659

25.6

88301

25.2

87033

24.1

40033

24.1

Brown

308809

16.7

51002

17.1

53767

16.6

55075

16.1

59749

17.1

60479

16.7

27780

16.7

Other

126196

6.8

17390

5.8

19705

6.1

22293

6.5

24975

7.1

28026

7.8

13572

8.2

White

950457

51.5

156382

52.5

166820

51.4

177875

51.9

177129

50.6

185803

51.4

84987

51.1

Total

1846930

100.0

297595

100.0

324452

100.0

342902

100.0

350154

100.0

361341

100.0

166372

100.0

*2013 up to November. Does not include blank skin colour cards.

7/23/14

Percentage changes in cards

2012-2013
Percentagec
hange 2012
to 2013**

Skin colour

2012

2013*

Blank

42952

10.6%

23192

12.2%

15.2%

Black

87033

21.5%

40033

21.1%

-1.9%

Brown

60479

15.0%

27780

14.7%

-2.0%

Other

28026

6.9%

13572

7.2%

3.3%

White

185803

46.0%

84987

44.8%

-2.4%

Total

404293

100.0%

189564

100.0%

0.0%

*For 2013, up to November

**Reflects a calculation using unrounded figures

7/23/14

Carding in 2013, pre and post dropoff in July

Includes Blank skin colour cards
Skin colour

Total cards

Pre-July 1
cards

Post-July 1
cards*

Percentage change
pre to post**

Blank

23,192

12.2%

18018

11.8%

5174

13.9%

17.547%

Black

40,033

21.1%

31268

20.5%

8765

23.6%

14.748%

Brown

27,780

14.7%

22301

14.6%

5479

14.7%

0.570%

Other

13,572

7.2%

11261

7.4%

2311

6.2%

-15.993%

White

84,987

44.8%

69499

45.6%

15488

41.6%

-8.776%

Total

189,564

100.0%

152,347

100.0%

37,217

100.0%

0.000%

*Up to November
**Reflects a calculation using unrounded figures

7/23/14

Carding in 2013, pre and post dropoff in July

Does not include Blank skin colour cards
Skin colour

Total

Pre-July 1
cards

Post-July 1
cards*

Percentage change
pre to post**

Black

40,033

24.1%

31268

23.3%

8765

27.4%

17.514%

Brown

27,780

16.7%

22301

16.6%

5479

17.1%

2.994%

Other

13,572

8.2%

11261

8.4%

2311

7.2%

-13.968%

White

84,987

51.1%

69499

51.7%

15488

48.3%

-6.577%

Total

166,372

100.0%

134,329

100.0%

32,043

100.0%

0.000%

*For 2013, up to November

**Reflects a calculation using unrounded figures

7/23/14

Contact cards by month

Month

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Percentage
Change **

2013*

7,787

25,432

31,553

30,488

35,469

28,706

-19.1%

19,893

25,106

27,273

26,767

33,206

23,069

-30.5%

31,846

28,625

34,567

31,694

36,111

27,057

-25.1%

33,988

31,982

35,613

37,166

32,921

27,652

-16.0%

35,214

32,441

31,620

35,415

36,620

26,983

-26.3%

32,325

33,171

24,764

34,681

33,509

18,880

-43.7%

31,090

30,547

26,178

33,671

35,987

9,165

-74.5%

27,794

27,554

31,931

31,437

41,654

9,698

-76.7%

27,254

26,375

31,695

29,428

31,130

8,951

-71.2%

10

28,959

29,024

32,811

33,039

30,487

8,679

-71.5%

11

26,097

26,802

33,846

29,458

29,370

724

12

21,210

27,922

31,446

33,071

27,829

No data

323,457

344,981

373,297

386,315

404,293

189,564

*For 2013, data up to November

**Reflects a calculation using unrounded figures

7/23/14

10

TAVIS cards
Includes Blank skin colour cards

Skin colour

Total*

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Percentage
change
2012 to
2013

Blank

8,823

529

550

973

1,661

2,058

3,052

48.3%

Black

68,016

9,445

12,503

10,772

14,725

13,173

7,398

-43.8%

Brown

31,218

4,317

4,581

4,265

6,972

7,361

3,722

-49.4%

Other

9,185

1,276

1,390

1,323

1,888

2,459

849

-65.5%

White

63,011

8,940

8,708

9,025

13,258

15,318

7,762

-49.3%

Total

180,253

24,507

27,732

26,358

38,504

40,369

22,783

-43.6%

*Cards from Jan to Oct for all years

7/23/14

11

TAVIS cards
Does not include Blank skin colour cards
Total

2008

2009

2010

2011

Black

79,894

39.7

12,091

41.1

14,267

45.4

13,618

42.2

17,156

Brown

36,588

18.2

5,255

17.9

5,340

17.0

5,383

16.7

Other

10,597

5.3

1,508

5.1

1,622

5.2

1,652

White

74,245

36.9

10,572

35.9

10,217

32.5

Grand
Total

201,319

100.0

29,426

100.0

31,446

100.0

2012

2013*

39.3

15,354

34.3

7,406

37.5

8,288

19.0

8,595

19.2

3,726

18.9

5.1

2,293

5.2

2,669

6.0

853

4.3

11,643

36.1

15,963

36.5

18,082

40.5

7,766

39.3

32,296

100.0

43,700

100.0

44,700

100.0

19,751

100.0

*For 2013, up to November

7/23/14

12

Changes in nature of contact

Nature of contact card

Total

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

General InvesQgaQon

690,616

178,061

124,729

114,684

116,762

119,841

33,952

-71.7%

Radio Call

392,024

6,062

61,651

78,742

93,716

97,605

54,240

-44.4%

Trac Stop

325,243

52,888

55,572

57,700

60,722

65,395

31,719

-51.5%

Vehicle Related

94,781

17,194

17,762

17,395

16,833

16,323

9,142

-44.0%

Loitering

71,005

12,127

16,052

14,192

10,399

10,567

7,642

-27.7%

Bail Compliance Check-No ViolaQon

56,432

1,744

8,609

13,526

13,451

13,643

5,454

-60.0%

Liquor Licence Act

55,288

8,746

9,046

9,207

9,143

12,338

6,749

-45.3%

Trac Stop CauQon

35,190

36

8,408

8,753

9,803

8,190

-16.5%

Drug Related

34,319

7,728

5,364

5,268

4,969

6,520

4,415

-32.3%

Squeegee Kid/Panhandler/Strt Person

32,295

5,771

5,853

6,689

4,970

6,290

2,703

-57.0%

Bail Compliance Check-No Contact

30,145

160

4,112

6,898

8,740

7,260

2,975

-59.0%

Trespassing

28,492

7,052

5,416

4,434

3,902

4,512

3,151

-30.2%

Dispute (Non-DomesQc)

27,512

1,061

4,380

4,633

6,161

6,737

4,540

-32.6%

EDP Related

25,984

5,515

4,126

3,941

4,229

4,975

3,179

-36.1%

TTC Related

25,883

4,552

9,339

6,511

3,829

1,649

-56.9%

Shopli_ing

18,889

3,789

3,253

3,202

3,477

3,421

1,725

-49.6%

Suspicious AcQvity

17,033

4,705

3,053

2,868

2,629

2,735

1,017

-62.8%

General Info for Intelligence Unit

12,944

3,248

1,801

2,147

2,048

2,756

930

-66.3%

Screening Device - Pass

7,975

1,460

1,858

1,992

2,002

662

-66.9%

Observed but not Spoken to

6,670

397

1,208

1,144

1,283

1,444

1,192

-17.5%

CPIC 10-66 Return to InvesQgator

5,819

1,058

1,062

918

1,041

1,232

504

-59.1%

7/23/14

%Change 2012to2013

13

Likelihood of being carded

Overall in Toronto, the likelihood of black people being carded
over white people jumped from three times more likely to nearly
four times more likely, following the drop in contact carding in
July. These figures were arrived at using this formula:
(black cards/total cards) / (black population/total population)
(white cards/total cards) / (white population/total population)

Black to white
likelihood Jan. 1 to
June 30 2013
Toronto

7/23/14

3.0

Black to white
likelihood July Percentage
1 to Nov. 2013 change
3.8

26.7

14

Questions
This analysis was prepared by Toronto Star database specialist
Andrew Bailey and reporter Jim Rankin. Any queries can be directed
to Rankin at jrankin@thestar.ca.

7/23/14

15