TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3)

DATE: J uly 22, 2014
RE: Key Findings from Survey of Voters in Utahs 4
th
Congressional District


Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) recently conducted a survey of 400 voters
in Utahs 4
th
Congressional District likely to vote in the November general election.
i
The survey
results show Democrat Doug Owens with an impressive early base of support, and strong
potential to overtake Mia Loves narrow lead. While Love is far better-known than Owens at
the outset, she also begins with a sizable proportion of voters who hold a deeply unfavorable
opinion of her. This vulnerability creates an opportunity for meaningful gains by Owens. After
voters learn more about the strengths of his candidacy, the survey results show that Owens is
able to overtake Love and move into the lead in the race.

The balance of this memorandum details these and other key findings from the survey.

CD 4 voters hold mixed opinions of Mia Love. While a slim majority (52%) views Love
positively, fully two in five voters (42%) say they have an unfavorable opinion. While less
well known, views of Owens are largely positive.

Figure 1: Favorability Ratings
Candidate
Total
Favorable
Total
Unfavorable
Cant Rate/
Dont Know
Mia Love 52% 42% 6%
Doug Owens 21% 5% 74%

Despite trailing in name recognition, Owens trails Love by single digits and
demonstrates significant potential for growth. While Love starts with 50 percent of the
vote, support for Owens stands at 41 percent. Support for Owens is also firmerhalf of
those supporting his candidacy say they will definitely support him in November. In

2425Colorado AvenueSuite180 1999 Harrison Street Suite 1290
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Utah 4
th
Congressional District Voter Survey Summary of Key Findings
Page 2

contrast, only 37 percent of those in favor of Love say they will definitely support her
candidacy.

Figure 2: Current Preferences in the Race for Congress

Learning more about both candidates allows Owens to move into the lead. Survey
respondent were read brief, positive biographies of both candidates. This additional
information dramatically increased favorable perceptions of Owens (80% favorable to 16%
unfavorable) while Love was still left with a strong core of voters who view her negatively
(60% favorable to 38% unfavorable). With a short series of positive arguments detailing his
background and agenda, Owens moves into a clear lead over Love, as shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Preferences in the Race for Congress After Bios and Positive Owens Messages


On the whole, the survey results show deep vulnerabilities for Mia Love and an excellent
chance for Doug Owens to capture this open Congressional seat in November. Love is well-
known and highly unpopular with many segments of the electorate, while Owens has a
compelling background and agenda that allow him to overcome Loves narrow initial lead.
Given a strong campaign and the resources to introduce himself to the electorate, Owens will be
able to make this race as competitive as it was in 2012.


i
Methodology: From J uly 15 17, 2014, FM3 completed 400 telephone interviews with randomly-selected
Congressional District 4 voters most likely to participate in the November general election. The survey captured
voters from both landline and cellphone dominant households. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is
+/- 4.9% at the 95% confidence level.