Climate Change and Fisheries
Rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in theatmosphere are causing global climate change. In thecoming decades, global average temperatures will increase,rainfall patterns will change, extreme weather events willbecome more severe, sea levels will rise and numerous otherenvironmental changes will occur (IPCC 2007). Agriculturewill be affected, with impacts on food security. Fisheries andaquaculture will also feel the heat.Climate change may directly affect fishery production alongmany pathways. Fish reproduction, growth and migrationpatterns are all affected by temperature, rainfall andhydrology (Ficke et al. 2007). Changes in these parameterswill therefore shift patterns of species abundance andavailability. Saltwater intrusion caused by rising sea levelsmay threaten freshwater fisheries while, at the same time,creating opportunities for catching and cultivating high-valuebrackish or marine species (WorldFish Center 2007).Changes in precipitation will affect seasonal floodingpatterns that drive inland fish production. While greater wet-season flooding may boost production in some inlandfisheries, drier dry seasons may threaten stocks of both wildand cultured fish.
Fish in Cambodia
Fisheries are critical to human well-being in Cambodia, wherefish provide up to 80% of all animal protein in the diet (Hortle2007). Capture fisheries and aquaculture contribute about10% of Cambodia's gross domestic product and are evenmore important in terms of local livelihoods. Fishing andrelated activities are the primary sources of income for aboutone third of the people living around Tonle Sap and asecondary source of income for half of those who live aroundCambodia's great lake (Baran 2005).
Climate Change in Cambodia
Climate change is occurring now. The average temperature inCambodia has increased since 1960 by 0.8°C, and with it thefrequency of unusually hot days and nights has increased aswell (McSweeney et al. 2008). A further 0.3-0.6°C increase isexpected by 2025 (MOE 2002). Alternative estimates put theexpected warming at 0.7-2.7°C by the 2060s (McSweeney etal. 2008).
Temperature increases will be more severe fromDecember to June. All climate change models agree that rainfall in Cambodia willincrease, but the magnitude of change is uncertain.Estimates of the increase vary from as little as 3% to as muchas 35% (ICEM 2009). Models predict that the increase inrainfall will occur during the wet season, bringing moreflooding, and that precipitation in the dry season will beunchanged or lower (Eastham et al. 2008).
Rainfall isexpected to increase more in the lowlands than in the3
Climate change predictions vary because they are based on a variety of development scenarios. The range of estimates includes predictions for scenarios with low emissions,high emissions, and in between. Each scenario also includes various assumptions about population growth, technological development, economic growth and energy sources. Variability among scenarios accounts for the typically wide error margin in predictions. A second layer of uncertainty results from ecological feedbacks in the system. Uncertaintyfurther increases with the complexity of the system and as predictions move farther along ecological and social processes.
Table 1: Overview of climate changeeffects in Cambodia
Source:Eastham et al. 2008
The thickness of arrows indicates the degree of certainty in findings.
Figure 1: Historical
seasonal fluctuationin the Tonle Sap water level