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The Age of Consequences:
The Foreign Policy and National Security
Implications of Global Climate Change

By Kurt M. Campbe\ue000\ue000, Jay Gu\ue000\ue000edge, J.R. McNei\ue000\ue000, John Podesta,
Peter Ogden, leon Fuerth, R. James Woo\ue000sey, A\ue000exander T.J. lennon,
Ju\ue000ianne Smith, Richard Weitz, and Derek Mix

N O V E M B E R
2 0 0 7
Project Co-Directors

Kurt M. Campbell
Alexander T. J. Lennon
Julianne Smith

Center for StrategiC &
international StudieS
Acknowledgements

This report was edited by Sharon Burke, Jim Miller, Whitney Parker, and Christine Parthemore of the Center for a New American Security
(CNAS) as well as Richard Weitz, Hudson Institute. Additional copy-editing was provided by Vinca LaFleur, CSIS. Billy Sountornsorn of
CNAS, as always, supplied creative insights.

Cover Image
Earth going down the drain (1992)
\u00a9 Chris Collins/CORBIS
Page 2 Image
Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus), hauling out on the ice foe, Water Bay, Canada
T\ue004e Age o\ue003 Con\ue006equence\ue006:
The Foreign Policy and National Security
Implications of Global Climate Change
N O V E M B E R2 0 0 7
TABlE O\ue002 CONTENTs
Executive Summary
5
Introduction: The Methodological Approach o\ue003

13
this Study and Previous Research on the
Impacts o\ue003 Climate Change

I. Can History Help Us with Global Warming?
23
II. Three Plausible Scenarios o\ue003 Future Climate Change
35
III. Security Implications o\ue003 Climate Scenario 1:
55
Expected Climate Change Over Next 30 Years
IV. Security Implications o\ue003 Climate Scenario 2:
71
Severe Climate Change Over Next 30 Years

B\ue003 Kurt M. Campbell, Ja\ue003 Gulledge, J.R. McNeill, John Podesta,
Peter Ogden, Leon Fuerth, R. James Woolse\ue003, Alexander T.J. Lennon,
Julianne Smith, Richard Weitz, and Derek Mix

V. Security Implications o\ue003 Climate Scenario 3:
81
Catastrophic Climate Change Over Next 100 Years
VI. Setting the Negotiating Table:
93
The Race to Replace Kyoto by 2012
Conclusion: Summary and Implications o\ue003
103
Global Climate Change
Endnotes
111
P\ue001oj\ue000ct Co-Di\ue001\ue000cto\ue001s

Kurt M. Campbell
Alexander T. J. Lennon
Julianne Smith

of 00

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