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From: Phil Jones <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>To: Gabi Hegerl <hegerl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Tom Crowley <tcrowley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, GabiHegerl <hegerl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, myles <m.allen1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Tim Barnett<tbarnett-ul@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Nathan Gillett <gillett@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, "Stott,Peter" <peter.stott@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, David Karoly <dkaroly@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, ReinerSchnur <schnur@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Karl Taylor <taylor13@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, francis<francis.zwiers@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>Subject: Future DirectionsDate: Tue Mar 1 08:40:xxx xxxx xxxxDear All,I've knocked Chris off this reply. There is a meeting of the CCDD program nextweekin Asheville. I guess Chris wants something for this. I'm on the panel, so if youwant toadd towhat Gabi and Tom have put together then let me know and I'll feed that inadditionally towhat is already there.From being at the review last week of the vertical temperature trends panel, theissue ofreducing forcing uncertainties is important. A number of people think thatagreement inthe20th century is all doing to model tuning due to uncertain forcing with sulphates.How tocounter this is one area. One of my own pet areas is trying to reduceuncertainties in thepaleo record for the last millennium, but again this is one of convincing peoplethat wereallyknow what has happened. So much is being made of the paleo records, but are theythatimportant to detection when most of the work is going on with the 20th centuryrecords. Isthepre-20th century really that important when it comes to D&A?CheersPhilAt 20:45 28/02/2005, Gabi Hegerl wrote:Hi IDAG people,Chris Miller needs some input on where detection is going and what should befunded,appended is a list Tom and I sent him as rapid response, but it sounds like theyarestillin the process of thinking aboutthis, so please reply (soon) if you have additions/comments (Chris, only thoughtofsendingthis now, I hope results will be still helpful)Gabi1) extending detection to other fields, esp. U.S. possible variables arecirculation,anything hydrological (drought, average rainfall), climate extremes, storms,
 
all this is getting more feasible as observational data get better, reanalyses getmorereliable (although trend sstill questionable), and models get better and havehigherresolution2) compiling "showable" scorecard of what has been detected in the system already3) abrupt changes - Tom thinks the relevance has been overstated of past changesin thethermohaline circulation (because of proximity of massive amounts ofice/freshwater).However, I think it would still be useful tofind a fingerprint of predictors for thermohaline shutdown (from waterhosingexperiments), and establishhow early warning signs can be detected.Another aprupt change that could be dealt with are events such as the mega droughtcycles in the western U.S., which our preliminary work indicates does notcorrespondwith multidecal peaks in warmth for zonal average temperatures.4) using paleoclimate data for understanding regional responses to known forcings,suchas pulse of volcanism in early 19th century. tests of a model's predictability onregional scales. this however would require ensemble runs and a fair amount oflegwork,so probably would be best as a proposal than as an IDAG project.5) more surface temperature detection as already donw, to keep analyzing 20thcenturyfrom models as modeldiagnostic and evaluating how to get most model performance information out ofthisdiagnostic. For this,updates of forcing estimates, particularly reduced sulfate aerosol uncertaintieswouldbe useful.-------- Original Message --------Subject: Re: Directions in D&ADate: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 10:51:xxx xxxx xxxxFrom: Chris Miller <christopher.d.miller@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>Reply-To: christopher.d.miller@xxxxxxxxx.xxxOrganization: NOAATo: Gabi Hegerl <hegerl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>References: <4216317A.7020700@xxxxxxxxx.xxx> <421A4F67.1040201@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>Gabi, I'm looking for some quick thoughts, which probably means just you and Tom.Obviously, the rest of IDAG would have ideas but it would take some time to pollthem (Icould see it as an agenda item at the IDAG meeting). If you had a couple highlightitemsby Thursday morning, that would be helpful as I have an internal meeting wherethis willbe discussed.Thanks again, ChrisGabi Hegerl wrote:Chris, by when do you need this? From the whole IDAG or just, eg from meand Tom?GabiChris Miller wrote:
 
Tom, Gabi, As you are probably aware, one of the recurring challenges for federalprogram managers is to indicate to upper management what the science priorities inthefuture should be. NOAA is more future-looking than it has been in the past and wearenow being called upon more frequently to respond to this question. A simplisticanswerwould be "more of the same" since we are doing such good work now. This could bepart ofthe answer, but not the whole answer. NOAA is interested in new science thrusts,newobservational programs or analyses, new institutional arrangements, etc. (the "newisbetter syndrome"). I would appreciate it if you could take a few minutes to thinkaboutthis issue and send me a few bullets on where you think the community should begoing onD&A, for both continuing and new investments (from the perspective of the workthat IDAGhas been involved in to date).Thanks for your help and look forward to the next IDAG mtg.Chris-- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for theEnvironment and Earth Sciences,Box 90227Duke University, Durham NC 27708Ph: xxx xxxx xxxx, fax xxx xxxx xxxxemail: hegerl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, [1]http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html-- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for theEnvironment and Earth Sciences,Box 90227Duke University, Durham NC 27708Ph: xxx xxxx xxxx, fax xxx xxxx xxxxemail: hegerl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, [2]http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html--~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for theEnvironment and Earth Sciences,Box 90227Duke University, Durham NC 27708Ph: xxx xxxx xxxx, fax xxx xxxx xxxxemail: hegerl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, [3]http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.htmlProf. Phil JonesClimatic Research Unit Telephone +44 xxx xxxx xxxxSchool of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 xxx xxxx xxxxUniversity of East AngliaNorwich Email p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxxNR4 7TJUK----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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