0

20
40
60
80
100
20 40 60 80 100
6.5
Logistic Growth Model
Years
Bears
Greg Kelly, Hanford High School, Richland, Washington
We have used the exponential growth equation
to represent population growth.
0
kt
y y e =
The exponential growth equation occurs when the rate of
growth is proportional to the amount present.
If we use P to represent the population, the differential
equation becomes:
dP
kP
dt
=
The constant k is called the relative growth rate.
/ dP dt
k
P
=

The population growth model becomes:

0
kt
P Pe =
However, real-life populations do not increase forever.
There is some limiting factor such as food, living space or
waste disposal.
There is a maximum population, or carrying capacity, M.
A more realistic model is the logistic growth model where
growth rate is proportional to both the amount present (P)
and the fraction of the carrying capacity that remains:
M P
M

The equation then becomes:

dP M P
kP
dt M

| |
=
|
\ .
Our book writes it this way:
Logistics Differential Equation
( )
dP k
P M P
dt M
=
We can solve this differential equation to find the logistics
growth model.

Partial
Fractions
Logistics Differential Equation
( )
dP k
P M P
dt M
=
( )
1 k
dP dt
P M P M
=

( )
1 A B
P M P P M P
= +

( )
1 A M P BP = +
1 AM AP BP = +
1 AM =
1
A
M
=
0 AP BP = +
AP BP =
A B =
1
B
M
=
1 1 1 k
dP dt
M P M P M
| |
+ =
|

\ .
( )
ln ln P M P kt C = +
ln
P
kt C
M P
= +

Logistics Differential Equation
( )
dP k
P M P
dt M
=
( )
1 k
dP dt
P M P M
=

1 1 1 k
dP dt
M P M P M
| |
+ =
|

\ .
( )
ln ln P M P kt C = +
ln
P
kt C
M P
= +

kt C
P
e
M P
+
=

kt C
M P
e
P

=
1
kt C
M
e
P

=
1
kt C
M
e
P

= +

Logistics Differential Equation

kt C
P
e
M P
+
=

kt C
M P
e
P

=
1
kt C
M
e
P

=
1
kt C
M
e
P

= +
1
kt C
M
P
e

=
+
1
C kt
M
P
e e

=
+

C
Let A e

=
1
kt
M
P
Ae

=
+

Logistics Growth Model

1
kt
M
P
Ae

=
+

Example:
Logistic Growth Model
Ten grizzly bears were introduced to a national park 10
years ago. There are 23 bears in the park at the present
time. The park can support a maximum of 100 bears.
Assuming a logistic growth model, when will the bear
population reach 50? 75? 100?

Ten grizzly bears were introduced to a national park 10

years ago. There are 23 bears in the park at the present
time. The park can support a maximum of 100 bears.
Assuming a logistic growth model, when will the bear
population reach 50? 75? 100?
1
kt
M
P
Ae

=
+
100 M =
0
10 P =
10
23 P =

1
kt
M
P
Ae

=
+
100 M =
0
10 P =
10
23 P =
0
100
10
1 Ae
=
+
100
10
1 A
=
+
10 10 100 A + =
10 90 A=
9 A=
At time zero, the population is 10.
100
1 9
kt
P
e

=
+

1
kt
M
P
Ae

=
+
100 M =
0
10 P =
10
23 P =
After 10 years, the population is 23.
100
1 9
kt
P
e

=
+
10
100
23
1 9
k
e

=
+
10
100
1 9
23
k
e

+ =
10
77
9
23
k
e

=
10
0.371981
k
e

=
10 0.988913 k =
0.098891 k =
0.1
100
1 9
t
P
e

=
+

0.1
100
1 9
t
P
e

=
+
0
20
40
60
80
100
20 40 60 80 100
Years
Bears
We can graph
this equation
and use trace
to find the
solutions.
y=50 at 22 years
y=75 at 33 years
y=100 at 75 years
t