The Origins of and Solutions to Americas Political Polarization Problem By Matt Steiner
Introduction Today, it is commonplace to assume that American politics is more polarized than it has ever been. With Washington mired in endless debates over health care, the budget, and the debt 2 ceiling, it is no surprise that many Americans have little faith in the political process. Instead, they lament the hyper-partisanship and political gridlock that they witness on a daily basis. In this paper, I try to shed greater light on this entire topic. First, I provide evidence to confirm that American politics has become more polarized. Then, I assess the factors that have led to this dramatic shift. Finally, I conclude the paper by offering solutions that I believe will help the country overcome political polarization. The Evidence of Political Polarization Many scholars believe that American politics has become more polarized over the past thirty years (eg. Cameron 2002; Baldassarri et al. 2008). In this section, I provide two types of evidence to back up this claim. First, I consider anecdotal evidence that seems to support the political polarization hypothesis. Then, I turn to numerical evidence to verify this finding. Anecdotal Evidence There is quite a bit of anecdotal evidence supporting the political polarization hypothesis. Personal accounts from former politicians like Olympia Snowe and Joe Liebermann seem to indicate that many in Washington have moved away from the political center (Snowe 2013; Lieberman 2014). Recent events such as the government shutdown and the health care reform debate also lend support to this theory. Several scholars have tried to document this dramatic shift. In their most recent book, Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson (2005) blamed political polarization on the Republican Revolution of the 1990s. To some extent, their findings drew on earlier works, such as David Rohdes (1991) in depth analysis of party leadership and its effects on party homogeneity in the House of Representatives. Since then, many scholars have continued to document political 3 polarization in American politics (Sinclair 2006; Mann et al. 2012). Their work has encouraged others in the academic community to quantify this trend. Numerical Evidence Many scholars have increasingly relied on numerical evidence to show that political polarization has increased. The most common measure to which they have turned is roll-call voting behavior in Congress. Several studies show that Republicans and Democrats have voted less frequently with one another on many initiatives than they did in the past (Poole et al. 1997; Groseclose et al. 1999; Clinton et al. 2004). This change seems to indicate that Congress has become more polarized. Other scholars have accepted this finding but have also tried to measure political polarization in different ways. For example, Michael Barber and Nolan McCarty (2013) found that the number of political issues outside of party conflict has fallen dramatically. Instead, many previously non-partisan issues have become politicized. Similarly, Geoffrey Layman and Thomas Carsey (2002) showed that the attitudes of party activists have moved farther away from the political center. Nevertheless, some scholars have challenged this theory. The most poignant critique has come from Morris Fiorina (2010), a political scientist at Stanford University. According to Fiorina, everyday Americans havent become more polarized. Instead political elites have moved away from the center. In order to defend this claim, Fiorina relies on a mountain of survey data measuring political attitudes across the country. In the process, he casts some doubt on the political polarization hypothesis. Nevertheless, his findings dont debunk the entire theory altogether. Instead, they paint a much more intricate picture of political polarization in America. The Causes of Political Polarization 4 The causes of political polarization are multiple and complex. Several scholars have tried to identify which factors have played the largest role, but the academic community is yet to arrive at any definitive conclusion. In this section, I outline each of these factors and identify which ones I believe have polarized American politics most. Political Realignment Many political scientists believe that political realignment is the primary cause of polarization in American politics (Carmines et al. 1990; Kimball et al. 2010, 8; Pildes 2011, 287- 297; Bonica 2014, 7). According to this logic, civil rights legislation alienated many southern Democrats and moved them more toward the Republican Party. This removed an important conservative constituency from the Democratic Party and made the party as a whole more liberal. Over several decades, both parties homogenized and became more ideologically pure. The net result, according to this theory, is that American politics became more polarized. Some scholars believe that this narrative oversimplifies American political history and only looks at the Democratic half of the coin. Nolan McCarty (2011) in particular has challenged this one-sided view and has said that the death of moderate Republicans played as large a role in political polarization as southern backlash against the Democratic Party. However, McCarty does not clearly identify which factors led to the demise of moderate Republicans. Its possible that President Nixons southern strategy alienated many northern moderates within the party and discouraged them from voting Republican. This may have made the Republican base more conservative and homogenous and may have also set the stage for todays polarized environment. Whatever the cause may be, it is clear that changes within the Republican Party have contributed to political polarization as much as changes within the Democratic Party. Individual Personalities 5 Some pundits believe that a lack of moderate statesmen is to blame for political polarization (eg. Poole et al. 2007, 319). To some extent, their analysis is warranted. Over the past thirty years, the number of congressmen or senators with centrist ideological scores has dwindled to almost zero (Theriault 2006). This means that there has been less compromise in Washington and more partisanship. The problem with this theory is that it fails to recognize the much larger factors at work that have moved politicians toward the political extremities. Washington has fewer moderate statesmen because both political parties are more ideologically pure. This theory fails to recognize this simple fact. Instead, it blames Washingtons dysfunction on a lack of courage and political will. While many politicians might lack both of these qualities, they also hold increasingly extreme views that make compromise difficult. As a result, this theory is not valid and cannot account for todays polarized environment. Demographic Changes Other scholars have turned to demographic factors to explain Americas political polarization. Famed journalist Bill Bishop (2008) first identified this trend when he wrote his seminal book The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-Minded Americans is Tearing us Apart. According to Bishop, Americas socioeconomic landscape has changed considerably over the past thirty years. Instead of living side-by-side with individuals of different economic and social standing, Americans have increasingly sorted themselves into homogenous communities. This has exposed many communities to a narrower range of political views and has made Americans more ideologically extreme. Several demographic factors underlie this change. Perhaps the most important of these factors is the economic success of the south. Beginning in the 1970s, millions of Americans 6 began migrating southward. Though some were inevitably drawn by the souths milder climate, a large portion moved to seek out new economic opportunities. Their entrepreneurial enthusiasm injected new energy into the southern economy and helped fuel newfound economic conservatism all across the Sun Belt. No event more clearly illustrates this trend than the tax revolts that swept across the entire country during the late 1970s and 1980s. By the 2000s, this economic conservatism had turned many white southerners into uncompromising Republican partisans. Just as important as the economic success of the south was resurgent racial segregation during the 1970s. Beginning in the 1970s, many affluent whites began to flee from inner cities and settle in suburbs. This increased the proportion of poor African Americans in cities and turned many urban areas into de facto areas of economic and racial segregation. Politically, it also created many more homogenous constituencies with median ideological views that increasingly diverged from the American political center. These changes were exacerbated by a surge in income inequality. From the 1970s onward, wages failed to keep pace with inflation. This left many individuals with less money and increased the gap between the rich and poor. As a result, it pushed some voters to the left and to the right. According to Nolan McCarty, Keith Poole, and Howard Rosenthal (2006), this shift polarized the American electorate and made compromise difficult. During the same timeframe, the country also sorted itself by age. Younger, more progressive individuals moved to cities while their older, more conservative parents stayed in the suburbs. This made cities increasingly liberal and forced many politicians to concern themselves with progressive issues, such as environmental protection, abortion, and same sex marriage. To a 7 large extent, this change reflected a much broader shift in attitudes away from materialism and toward what political scientist Ronald Inglehart (1977) has called post-materialism. Finally, religion also played a role. Beginning in the 1970s, churches became increasingly politicized. On the right, evangelical crusaders like Pat Robertson started to infuse religious doctrine with overt political gestures (Kurtzman 2013). These efforts culminated in Robertsons 1988 presidential campaign, which saw record numbers of churchgoers take their religious views to the political stage. On the left, the same process occurred, especially within African American communities where some ministers injected ideological extremism into their sermons. No minister better typified this phenomenon than Reverend Jeremiah Wright, whose sermons frequently criticized free market capitalism and conservative racism (Sanchez 2014). Together, these factors conspired to sort Americans based on their political tendencies and make the country as a whole more polarized. Mass Media One of the least looked-at factors contributing to political polarization is the rise of mass media (eg. Della Vigna et al. 2007). According to this theory, the rise of cable television, talk radio, and internet has injected populism and ideological extremism into American politics. This change has moved Republicans and Democrats farther apart and increased political polarization. There is some evidence to support this hypothesis. Beginning in the 1970s, many Americans stopped watching local broadcast television and instead turned to national cable television and in particular, entertainment programs. This choice may have made some individuals less politically engaged and less likely to vote. As a result, it may have also narrowed the electorate to include only those individuals who followed the news on a regular basis. When the conservative Fox News and liberal MSNBC were established in the 1990s, this change may 8 have had especially dire consequences. In particular, it may have fed many Americans a biased view of the news. Over time, this might have made many Americans more partisan and ideological. This narrative certainly sounds plausible, but it isnt necessarily correct. Political scientist Markus Prior (2013) has pointed out several flaws that potentially invalidate the theory. According to Prior, most Americans rely on several news outlets that span the entire political spectrum. This means that most of the country gets a relatively unbiased view of the news, which precludes most individuals from any form of political indoctrination. Nevertheless, a small portion of the population does consume news in a noticeably one-sided manner. For these individuals, the theory does appear to hold. International Power Another argument that some scholars have recently advanced is that the level of domestic polarization is directly linked to the amount of international power that America possesses. According to the political scientists Joseph Bafumi and Joseph Parent (2012), America has experienced more political polarization when it has been more powerful. This is largely because during these times, there have been fewer global threats to pacify domestic divisions and hold polarization at bay. This is certainly a plausible theory, but it remains under-researched and requires more investigation. Campaign Finance Many everyday Americans blame the campaign finance structure used in American elections for the countrys political discord (eg. Hollings 2014). According to this logic, many politicians pursue an ideologically extreme agenda in order to please their campaign donors. This decision exacerbates political divisions and makes any form of compromise difficult. 9 For the most part, the evidence for this theory is mixed. On the one hand, a number studies show that the sources of campaign funding have little effect on a politicians voting behavior (eg. Ansolabehere et al. 2003). Nevertheless, several others show that candidates have raised more money from individual donors, who are by most accounts more ideological than their interest group or political action committee (PACs) counterparts (Barber 2013; Bonica 2013). Whether or not this kind of shift in campaign financing will lead to a corresponding shift in political behavior is still up for debate (Baron 1994; Moon 2004; Ensley 2009). By this token, it is unclear if Americas campaign finance structure has increased political polarization. Primary Elections Primary elections are also another potential cause of political polarization (Gerber et al. 1998; Burden 2004; Brady et al. 2007). In many cases, they force moderate Democrats and Republicans to move toward the left or right in order to secure their partys nomination. In the long run, this encourages politicians to avoid compromise and move away from the political center. There is quite a bit of anecdotal evidence to support this hypothesis. Perhaps the clearest illustration of this theory is John McCains reelection bid in 2010. Like many moderate Republican senators, McCain faced a primary challenger from the right. His opponent, former congressman J.D. Hayworth, hoped to convince primary voters that McCain wasnt conservative enough for the party. In order to address these concerns, McCain tacked to right and abandoned many of the political initiatives he previously supported. Among these were climate change legislation, immigration reform, and campaign finance reform. Though this move helped McCain win reelection, it also led him to oppose several pieces of legislation that he might have previously supported. As a result, it increased political polarization in Congress. 10 Recently, scholars have come to question this theory. For example, one study found that the level of competition in primary elections has very little effect on political polarization in Congress (Hirano et al. 2010). Other studies seem to confirm this finding and extend it to other political contexts (eg. McCarty 2011, 363-366). This means that primary elections might not play as a large a role in political polarization as previously thought. Gerrymandering Perhaps the most talked about cause of political polarization is gerrymandering (Carson et al. 2007; Miller 2013). Exponents of this theory believe that allowing state legislatures to control redistricting has created many heavily partisan districts that dont adequately represent the American political center. This has encouraged politicians to diverge from the center and instead support an extreme agenda. This theory is flawed for several reasons. First, state legislatures dont always draw heavily partisan districts (Levitt 2010, 57-66). In many cases, they actually try to maximize the number of districts that will support their party even if this decision makes each district less partisan. This is especially true when one party controls the redistricting process. Second, this theory isnt supported by the entire academic community. Indeed, many studies show that gerrymandering has virtually no effect on political polarization (Mann 2006; McCarty et al. 2009). With this in mind, it is hard to accept the gerrymandering hypothesis. Congressional Leadership Some political insiders believe that the increasing power of congressional leaders has contributed to political polarization (Rottinghaus 2013). According to this theory, congressional leaders have used their authority to force moderates within their respective parties to avoid 11 compromise and support party-line initiatives. This has increased partisan gridlock and exacerbated political polarization. There is some evidence to support this theory. For example, congressional reforms during the 1970s weakened the seniority rule, a little-known rule that historically guaranteed a committees chairmanship to the committees longest serving member. Instead, party leaders assumed more control of the committee appointment process. This trend continued during the 1990s when Newt Gingrich was Speaker of the House. Under Speaker Gingrichs reign, the seniority rule was eliminated and congressional leaders assumed even more control. Thereafter, earning a committee chairmanship was contingent on supporting party leaders and their initiatives. All of these changes coincided with increased polarization in Congress, which seems to suggest that this theory is valid. Nevertheless, there are several reasons to doubt the congressional leadership hypothesis. Perhaps the main reason is the state of affairs in the current session of Congress. Far from being all powerful, Republican leaders in the House of Representatives have had to give in to insurgent tea partiers on several occasions. This has intensified partisan gridlock and made legislative progress nearly impossible. Notwithstanding these limitations, the theory does have some support. For example, former Congressman Mickey Edwards (2012) has blamed political dysfunction in Washington on congressional leaders. Some academics agree with Edwards and have also lent support to the theory (eg. Hall et al. 2014). From this, one could reasonably conclude that this theory might be valid. The Solutions to Political Polarization 12 In order to fulfill its destiny as a fully functioning liberal democracy, America must overcome political polarization. In this section, I outline several policy changes that I believe will move the country in this direction. These solutions arent radical and dont represent a huge departure from past practices. Instead, they are practical fixes that could potentially garner enough political support to be enacted. Nevertheless, these solutions arent perfect and wont entirely eliminate political polarization in America. Reinstating the Fairness Doctrine The first potential solution involves the Fairness Doctrine. The Fairness Doctrine was a rule created in 1949 by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) that required all broadcast outlets licensed by the FCC to cover controversial issues in an unbiased manner. The rationale behind this rule was simple. Since the number of broadcast outlets was very limited, federal authorities wanted to ensure that Americans were receiving a fair and balanced view of the news. In most cases, this meant that broadcasters had to give equal airtime to both conservative and liberal points of view. Beginning in the 1980s, this rule came under attack. Even though the Supreme Court had upheld it on a number of occasions, President Reagan decided to repeal it during his second term in office. This decision enabled ideologues like Rush Limbaugh and Howard Stern to fill the airwaves with relatively fringe views. Over time, this may have radicalized regular listeners and moved them away from the political center. The best way to address this problem is to reinstate the Fairness Doctrine (Holm 2014). Though this change might generate some backlash, it would go a long way toward removing populist extremism from many media outlets. At the same time, it would also encourage Americans to consider both sides of important political debates. This might moderate political discourse across the country. 13 Nevertheless, this change would only influence a small minority of the population that consumes media in a one-sided manner (Prior 2013). As a result, it would not eliminate all political extremism in America. By the same token, it would not directly address all of the other ways in which the country has become polarized. Reforming Primary Elections Reforming primary elections is another potential option that policymakers can pursue (Kraushaar 2013). Even if primary elections dont contribute to political polarization, pursuing reform might increase civic engagement and public trust in American political institutions. In the long-run, this could help eliminate Americas social capital deficit (Putnam 2001) and maybe even moderate political views (Steketee 2011). There are three basic ways in which America could accomplish this task. First, the public could encourage state governments to use open primaries. Open primaries enable voters to participate in any primary election regardless of political affiliation. This means that centrist independents can vote in a political primary and potentially moderate the outcome. However, it also means that members of the opposite party can engage in strategic voting and support an extreme candidate in another party (Chen et al. 2002). To some extent, this defeats the purpose of the open primary and makes moderation harder to come by. Second, state governments could experiment with blanket primaries. Blanket primaries are very similar to open primaries, but they require that all candidates be on the same slate regardless of political affiliation. Under these rules, the top two candidates in the primary election proceed onto the general election. Since political independents can participate, some believe that this electoral formula encourages moderation. However, just like open primaries, 14 blanket primaries can see quite a bit of strategic voting (eg. Alvarez et al. 2002). Therefore, they arent an ideal solution. Finally, state governments could turn to semi-closed primaries. Semi-closed primaries have many of the same rules as open primaries, but they bar voters registered with political parties from voting in another partys primary. At the same time, they still allow political independents to participate in any primary election. Together, these two rules ensure that strategic voting doesnt occur on a widespread basis (Gerbert et al. 1998, 310-312). As a result, they also make semi-closed primaries the best potential reform option. Eliminating Gerrymandering Policymakers could also consider eliminating gerrymandering (Levitt 2010). Like primary election reform, this change might not reduce political polarization, but it could very well increase civic engagement, social capital, and public trust. In the long-run, this could potentially moderate American political discourse (Steketee 2011). In order to eliminate gerrymandering, state legislatures should turn redistricting over to independent, non-partisan commissions. These commissions should be transparent and should operate under a specific set of rules. First, they should try to make electoral districts as competitive as possible. Second, they should make sure that local communities arent split up even if this means that some districts are slightly less competitive than they otherwise would have been. Third, they should operate in accordance with the Voting Rights Act, which requires that minority communities receive adequate electoral representation. Finally, they should avoid using certain redistricting tactics like cracking, packing, and tacking when they draw electoral districts. This will make many districts more competitive and potentially encourage more centrist independents to vote. Eventually, this might lead to greater political moderation. 15 Reinstating the Seniority Rule Policymakers could also address political polarization by reinstating the seniority rule (eg. Parker 1996, 142). This move would make the committee chairmanship selection process less political and would encourage members of Congress to sometimes vote against their respective parties. In the process, it would also give congressional leaders less power and potentially lead to more moderation. Nevertheless, it would do little to address political polarization in the Senate. This is largely because the Senate still uses the seniority rule to fill committee chairmanships. Therefore, this solution wouldnt entirely eliminate political polarization in Washington. Other Potential Solutions There is also a myriad of other solutions that might reduce political polarization. However, quite a few of them are not feasible or wouldnt garner enough political support. Still, they are worth noting. First, the federal government could try to enact measures to combat the demographic changes and geographic sorting that has occurred throughout the United States. These could include tax breaks to encourage wealthy families to move into poorer areas or federal mandates that force localities to build mixed income communities. These reforms would probably run into stiff opposition and fail to change the status quo. Even if they were enacted, they wouldnt necessarily end partisan gridlock and bring political moderation. This is especially true given that past efforts at integration such as school busing have ended in failure. Therefore, these changes arent the best way to cut through political polarization. Second, Washington could change its strategic objectives, cut defense spending, and reduce its international power (eg. Press et al. 1997). This, in theory, might increase security 16 competition and help unify the populace around a common security threat. In the long-run, these changes might also bring an end to political polarization. The problem with this solution is that it doesnt account for the natural security that Americas geographic location already provides (Van Evera 1998, 19). Since America is surrounded by two large oceans and flanked by two relatively docile countries, it is a very secure country. Only a massive shift in the global distribution of power could change this situation. The rise of China might represent this very shift (Ross 2010), but until Beijing reaches parity with Washington, it will be impossible to tell whether international power actually influences domestic political polarization. Third, the federal government could change the campaign finance structure of American elections. This might reduce the influence of special interests and make Congress less polarized. However, given that the Supreme Court has not been very amenable to strict limits on campaign spending (Kennedy 2010; Roberts 2014), it is highly unlikely that any strong measure would survive a battle in court. Therefore, policymakers should consider other options if they want to overcome political polarization. Conclusion Over the past decade, America has been plagued by political polarization. Both anecdotal evidence and numerical evidence seem to confirm this claim. The causes of this political shift are indeed complex, but they do boil down to a concrete set of factors, such as political realignment, demographic change, the rise of mass media, and empowered congressional leadership. Reversing this trend will be difficult, but as this paper has demonstrated, it isnt impossible. By reinstating the Fairness Doctrine and the seniority rule, reforming primary elections, and eliminating gerrymandering, American can once again put itself on the right path toward political consensus.
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