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Copenhagenand Beyond
InstituteforPublicPolicyResearch
Challengingideas– Changingpolicy
©ippr,December2009
An ippr guide to the climatechange negoaons
ippr –winner of 
Prospect 
Magazine’s Green Think-Tank of the Year Award 2009
 
Top 5 things to look out for at Copenhagen
1)WilltheUScommittoanambitiousemissionstarget?
Thiscouldhelpbreakthedeadlockinthenegotiationsandpavethewayforanagreementwhichincludesbindingemissionreductiontargetsforindustrialisedcountriesandactionsonemissionsbydevelopingones.
Wereittohappen,keyquestionstobeaskedinclude:
•
Will2020emissionsreductionsacrossthedevelopedworldaddupto25-40%relativeto1990levelsasdemandedbydevelopingnations?
•
Willitbeenoughtopromptmajordevelopingcountriestocommittoactionsoftheirownthatwouldhaveasignificanteffectontheirfutureemissions?
Chancesofithappening:
 slight 
TheObamaadministrationstillneedstheUnitedStatesSenatetopassadomesticclimatechangebilltoavoidarepeatoftheKyotoProtocol‘deadonarrival’fiasco.PresidentObamahasindicatedthattheUSispreparedtoputa2020target‘intherangeof17percentbelow2005levels’onthetable,butthisamountstoacutoflessthan5percentrelativeto1990levels.
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About this guide
Inthisshortguide,ippr’sclimatechangeexpertssetoutinaclearandaccessiblewaywhatmighthappenatCopenhagen,whatmightcomeafterwardsandthebackgroundtothenegotiations.Ourexpertswillbeavailableforcomment,briefingandinterviewsthroughoutthesummit,bothinCopenhagenandinLondon.Seep10forbiographiesofourteamandtheircontactdetails.
Contents:
Top 5 things to look out for at Copenhagen........................................2What should happen aer Copenhagen if there is no deal?..............5Background: On the road to Copenhagen...........................................7ippr’s climate change team for Copenhagen.....................................10
 
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   C   O   P   E   N   H   A   G   E   N   A   N   D   B   E   Y   O   N   D   :   A   n   i   p   p   r   g   u   i    d   e   t   o   t    h   e   c    l   i   m   a   t   e   c    h   a   n   g   e   n   e   g   o      a      o   n   s
2)Willindustrialisedcountriesagreetosignificantlevelsof financing?
Havinghard,specifiedfinancialcommitmentsfromindustrialisedcountriestosupportemissionsreductionsandeffortstoadapttoclimateimpactsindevelopingcountriesisseenasapre-requisiteforaglobaldealbydevelopingcountries.
Wereittohappen,keyquestionstobeaskedinclude:
•
Howmuchisbeingpledged?Developingcountrieswant$250billion;theEuropeanUnionhasproposedafundworth$150billionby2020buthassofarfailedtoindicatehowmuchtheEUwouldcontributetoit.
•
Howwillindustrialisedcountriespayforit?Watchoutforproposednewleviesonaviationandshipping.
Chancesofithappening:
 slight 
Withindustrialised-countryemissionstargetsexpectedtobesignificantlybelowthe25–40%range,moneyflowingtodevelopingcountriesfromoffsetswillbehighlyconstrainedastherewillbelesspressureonindustrialisedcountriestoseekcheaperemissionsreductionsoverseas.Publicfinanceisalsoinshortsupplybecauseofthebankbailoutsandstimuluspackagesduringtherecession.Industrialisedcountriesmayhoweveragreetoprovidesomelimitedfinancebetweennowand2013undera‘faststart’scheme.
3)Willtherebemeaningfulprogressontechnologytransfer?
Thisisakeyissuefordevelopingcountries.Theyarguethatindustrialisedcountriesownmostofthekeylow-carbontechnologiesandthatthese,aswellastheskillsandknow-howtoproducethem,mustbesharedinternationally.
Wereittohappen,keyquestionstobeaskedinclude:
•
Willindustrialisedcountriesagreetosharesomeofthekeytechnologiesbyofferingcompaniesincentivestowaivepatentsorcuttechnologycosts?
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