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The Stony Brook Press - Volume 26, Issue 15

The Stony Brook Press - Volume 26, Issue 15

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Published by: The Stony Brook Press on Dec 09, 2009
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L lII
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U NIJ V J
n j
E S .S
I
th e
c o m m u n ity
new s
a n d
fe a tu re s
p a
V o l.
X X V I,
Issu e
1 5
" Ifi t ' sth e
r ig h tc o c k ,
i t ' sth e
r ig h tp e r s o n ! "
J u ly
2 0 ,
2 p e r
2 0 0 51 7 1
6
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......
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I....
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A n a ly s iso fth eD o w n in gS t r e e tM ei
W HAT
I S
IT ?
T he docum entn o w
know n
a sth e
D o w n in g
S tre e t
m em o
i s
a
sum m ary
o fa
m e e tin g
b e tw e e n
R ic h a rd
D e a rlo v e ,
th e
h e a d
o f
B ritish
in te lli-
g e n c e ,
a n d
s e n io r
B ush
A d m in istratio n
o ffi-
c ia ls .
I t
d a te s
fro m
J u ly
2 3 ,
2 0 0 2 ,ju s t
a s
th e
B ush
A d m in istratio n
w as
s t a r t i n g
t o
m ake
a
c a s e
fo rin v a d in g
I r a q
b u t b e fo re
i th a d
o ffic ia l-
l y
d e c la re di t s
in te n tio n
t od o
so .
T he
m em ow as
le a k e d
t o
th eT im e so fL o n d o n ,
w h ic h
p u b lis h e d
i to n
M ay
1 ,2 0 0 5
i n
th e
m idsto f P rim e
M in ster
T o n y
B la ir's
re e le c tio n
c a m p a ig n .
T he
B ritish
m e d ia
h a s
re p o rte d
o n th is
m em o
a n d
i t s
im p li-
c a tio n s ,
b u t
th e
m a in s tre a m
m e d ia
th is
s id e
o f
th e
A tla n tic
h a s
n e g le c te d
th is
sto ry
w ith
im p u n ity .
O n ly
n o w
a re
m e d ia
o u tle ts
b e g in -
n in g
t o
lo o k
in to
th is
d o c u m e n t.
C ongressm an
J o h n
C o n y e rs
h e ld
a
p u b lic
h e a rin g
in
W a s h in g to n
D C
o n
J u n e
1 6
re g a rd in g
th e
m em o
a n d
i t s
im p lic a tio n s .
H ere
w e
w illlo o k
a tth e
te x t
o f
th e
m em o
a n d
sum m arize
w hat
i t
s a y s
a n d
i t s
s ig n ific a n c e .
W HAT
D O E S
I TSA Y ?
I tw asd e c id e d
th a t m ilitary
fo rc e
w o u ld
b e
n e e d e d
t o
o v e rth ro w
S a d d a m
H u s s e i n 's
re g im e ,
a n d
th a tW M D
a n d
th e
th re a t
o fte rro r-
is m
w o u ld
b e
fo c a lp o in tsfo rb u ild in g
a
c a s efo r
w ar:
"M ilitary
a c tio n
w as
n o w
s e e n
a s
in e v ita b le .
B ush
w a n te d
t o
re m o v e
Saddam ,
th ro u g h
m ilitary
a c tio n ,
j u s t i f i e d
b y
th e
c o n -
ju n c tio n
o ft e r r o r i s m
a n d
W M D ."
O ffic ia ls
w ere
a lre a d y
c o n s id e rin g
tw o
o p tio n s :
a
sh o rt
a ir
c a m p a ig n
fo llo w e d
b y
a n
in v a s io n
fo rc e
o f
2 5 0 ,0 0 0
tro o p s
(w h ich
w o u ld
ta k e
som e tim e
t o
im p lem en t),
a n d
af a s t e r
cam -
p a ig n
" in itia te d
b y
a n
Ira q i
c a s u s
b e lli,"
s u p -
p o rte d
b y
ac o n tin u o u s
a irc a m p a ig n .
T hela tte r
w as
fe lt
t o
b e
a
" h a z a rd o u s
o p tio n ."
A c c o rd in g
t o
th e
m em o,
" th e
m ost
lik e ly
tim in g
i n
U S
m in d s
fo r m ilitary
a c tio n
t o
b e g in
w asJ a n u a r y ,
w ith
th e
tim e lin e
b e g in n in g
3 0
d a y s
b e fo re
th e
U S
C ongressionale le c tio n s ."
T h iss u g g e s t s
c a l-
c u la te d
p o litic a l
tim in g
t osh o re
u p
su p p o rta n d
re d u c e
c o n g re s s io n a l
a c c o u n ta b ility
o n c e
th e
w arb e g a n .
T he
m em o
c a lls
fo r
a
p la n
t o
is s u e
a n
u ltim a tu m
t o
H ussein
t o
a llo w
U N
w eapons
in s p e c to rs
b a c k
in to
th e
c o u n try ,
s o
a s
t o
p ro -
v id e
a
le g a l
b a s is
fo r
m ilitary
a c tio n .
T he
A d m in istratio n
w as
d e a d
s e t
o n
"regim e
c h a n g e ."
T hey
show ed
l i t t l e
c o n c e rn
fo rp o s tw a r
p la n n in g
o r
th e
d ip lo m a tic
p r o c e s s .
B utle g a l
c o n c e rn s
w ere
h ig h
o n
B ritish
o ffic ia ls '
m in d s .
"T he
A tto rn e y -G e n e ra l
s a id
th a t
th e
d e s ir e
fo r
reg im e
c h a n g e
w asn o ta
le g a lb a s e
fo r m ilitary
a c tio n .
T h e re
w ere
th re e
p o s s ib le
le g a l
b a s e s :
s e lf - d e f e n s e ,
h u m a n ita ria n
in te rv e n tio n ,
o r
U N SC
a u th o riz a tio n .
T he
f i r s ta n d
s e c o n d
c o u ld
n o t
b e
th e
b a s e
i n
th is
c a s e .
R e ly in g
o n
[U N
S e c u rity
C o u n c il
R e s o lu tio n ]
1 2 0 5
o f
th re e
y e a rs
a g o
w o u ld
b e
d iffic u lt."
S o
th e y
s u g g e s t-
e d
w o rk in g
o u t
a
n e w
re s o lu tio n :
"W e
s h o u ld
w ork
u p
a
p la n
fo r
a n
u ltim a tu m
t o
S a d d a m
t o
a llo w
b a c k
i n
th e
U N
w eapons
in s p e c to rs .
T h is
w o u ld
a ls o
h e lp
w ith
th e
le g a lju s tific a tio n
fo r
th e
u se
o f fo rc e ."
T hey
u n d e rs to o d
th a t
th e
c a s e
fo r
w ar
w as w eak;h u m a n ita ria n
in te rv e n tio n
w asn o ta n
a c c e p ta b le
b a s is
fo r m ilitary
a c tio n
a n d
th e re
w as
s c a n t
e v id e n c e
th a t
H ussein
w as
am assing
W M D
o r
h a d
tie s
t o
A l
Q aeda.
T h e re
w as
n o
im m in e n t
th re a ta g a in s tth e
U n ite d
S ta te s .
T he
m em o
s a y s :
"[T ]h e
c a s e
w as
th in .
S a d d a m
w as
n o t
th re a te n in g
h is
n e ig h b o rs ,
a n d
h is
W M D
c a p a b ility
w as
le s s
th a n
th a t
o f
L ib y a ,
N o rth
K oreao r
Ira n ."
T heo ffic ia ls
w erea ls o
k e e n
o nth e
p o lit-
ic a l
c o n te x t;
i f H ussein
r e f u s e d
t o
c o m p ly
w ith
th e
U N
in s p e c tio n s ,
i tc o u ld
n o to n ly
p ro v id e
a
le g a l
ju s tific a tio n
fo r
m ilitary
fo rc e ,
i t
w o u ld
a ls o
le g itim iz e
th e
w ar
i n
th e
m in d s
o f
th e
p u b ic .
T he
m em o
p ro v id e s
a n
e n th ra llin g
lo o k
in to
h o w
o ffic ia ls
w ere
s t a r t i n g
t o
fo rm
p la n s
fo rth e
e x e c u tio n
o f th e
w ar.T heyp a id
a tte n tio n
n o to n ly
t op ra c tic a l
m ilitary
c o n c e rn s ,
b u ta ls o
le g a l
a n d
p o litic a l
is s u e s .
W hat
h a sg a in e d
th e
m ost
a tte n tio n ,
th o u g h ,
i s
th e
fo llo w in g
s ta te -
m ent [em phasis
a d d e d ]:
"[T ]h e
in te llig e n c ea n dfa c ts
w ereb e in g
fix e d
a r o u n d th ep o lic y .
T h e
[ N a tio n a l S e c u r ity
C o u n c il]h a dn op a tie n c e w ithth e
U N
r o u te ,a n d
n o
e n th u s ia s mfo r
p u b lis h in gm a te r ia lo n
th e
Ira q i r e g im e 'sr e c o r d .T h e r e
w asl i t t l e
d iscu s-
s io n
i n
W a s h in g to no f th ea fte r m a tha fte r m ili-
ta r ya c tio n ."
C O N T R A D IC T IO N S
B ush
a n d
B la ir answ ered
q u e s tio n s
fro m
th e
m e d ia
o n
J u n e
7 ,
2 0 0 5 .
A
re p o rte r
a s k e d
B la ir
th is
q u e s tio n ,
"O n
Ira q ,
th e
s o -c a lle d
D o w n in g
S tre e t
M em o
fro m
J u ly
2 0 0 2
s a y s ,
'In te llig e n c e
a n d
fa c ts
rem ain
fix e d
a ro u n d
th e
p o lic y
o f
re m o v in g
S a d d a m
th ro u g h
m ilitary
a c tio n .'
I s
th is
a n
a c c u ra te
re fle c tio n
o f
w hat
h a p p e n e d ?
C o u ld
b o th
o fy o u
re s p o n d ? "
B la ir
" 6 1 I [ \u2022
1
\u2022 -
T
re s p o n d e a ,
'w e ll,
i
c a n
re s p o n d
t o
th a t
v e ry
e a s ily .
N o,
th e
fa c ts
w ere
n o t
b e in gfix e d
i n
a n y
s h a p eo rfo r m
a t a ll
[em phasis
a d d e d ]."
T he
D o w n in g
S tre e t
m em o
c le a rly
in d ic a te s ,
h o w -,
e v e r,
th a t
" fa c ts
a n d
in te llig e n c e
w ere
b e in g
fix e d
a ro u n d
th e
p o li-
c y ."
B ush
c la im e d ,
n n
t i l l
i
1
; m
t h
a t
4 1 1
I l
L
a l l l
,
i
1
.I
.
\u2022
m ilitary
fo rc e
w as
" th e
la s t
o p tio n ."
R e s p o n d in g
t o
th e
re p o rte r,
h e
s ta te d ,
"som e-
b o d y
s a id , w e ll,y o u
know ,
w e
h a d m ade
u p
o u r
m ind
t o
g o
t o
u se
m ilita ryfo r c e
t o
d e a l w ith
Saddam .T h e r ei s n o th in g fa r th e rfr o m
th etr u th .
M y c o n v e r s a tio n s w ithth e P rim e M in ister[w ere]
h o wc a nw ed oth isp e a c e fu lly.
.
b o tho fu s d id -
n 'tw antt o
u se
o u r m ilita ry [em phasis
a d d e d ]."
B uta g a in ,
th e
m em o
p ro v e s
h im
w ro n g ,
s ta tin g
a s
fo llo w s:
"M ilitary
a c tio n
w as
n o w
s e e n
a s
in e v ita b le .
B ush
w a n te d
t o
re m o v e
Saddam ,
th ro u g h
m ilitary
a c tio n ,
j u s t i f i e d
b y
th e
c o n -
ju n c tio n
o ft e r r o r i s m
a n d
W M D ."
T he
a u th e n tic ity
o f
th e
m em o
h a s
g o n e
u n c h a lle n g e d
b y
B la ira n d
B ush.
Som e
p u n d its
h a v e
c la im e d
th a t
th e
m em o
i s
a
fa k e
o r
th a t
it
i s
in c o rre c t,b u tth e y
h a v ep ro v id e d
n o
e v id e n c e
t o
b a c k
u p
th e irc la im s .
M o re o v e r,
th e re
a re
th e
c o n flic tin g
s ta te m e n ts
o f
C heney,
P o w e ll,
a n d
R ic e
t o
c o n s id e r,
re g a rd in g
I r a q 's
m ilitary
c a p a b ilitie s .
A ll
h a d
m ade
s ta te m e n ts
i n
th e
le a d
u p
t o
w ar
th a t
H ussein
w as
am assing
a n d
s to c k p ilin g
W M D
a n d
w as
p ro v in g
t o
b e
a n
im m in e n t
th re a t
t o
th e
U S
a n d
A rab
c o u n trie s .
H ow ever,
b e fo re
9 /1 1 ,
a ll
th re e
h a d
g o n e
o n
re c o rd
s ta tin g
th e
o p p o s ite ;
th a t
H ussein
w as
n o ta
th re a ta n d
d id
n o tp o s s e s s
c a p a b ilitie s
t o
s trik ea t th e
U S ..
T hese
a n d
o th e rc o n tra d ic tio n s
a re
w ell
w o rth
in v e s tig a tin g .
S o m e th in g
i s
n o t
a d d in g
u p .
W HAT
A R E
TH E IM P L IC A T IO N S ?
B a s ic a lly ,
w hat
th is
s u g g e s ts
i s
th a t
B ritish
a n d
A m erican
o ffic ia ls
w ere
ta ilo rin g
th e irin te llig e n c e
i no rd e r
t o
p ro p
u p
th e irp o l-
ic y
a n d
a g e n d a .
T h is
im p lie s
th e y
p ic k e d
a n d
c h o s e
w h a te v e r
fa c ts
b o ls te re d
th e ir
c a s e
fo r
w a r-g iv in g
l i t t l e
c re d e n c e
o r
c o n s id e ra tio n
t o
m no
_
, ,
s u c il
item ;llls
i o
t e
p a s t
tw o
y e a rs .
H ow ever,
th e
m em o
p ro v id e s
a
's m o k in g
g u n ,'
e v i-
d e n c e
t o
b a c k
u p
th e
c ritic s '
c la im s .
T he
im p lic a tio n s
a re
n u m e ro u s
a n d
s e v e r e .
I f
i t
i s
tru e
th a t
th e
o ffic ia ls
w ere
fix -
in g
a n d
ta ilo rin g
th e
in te llig e n c e
t o
s u it
th e ir
n e e d s ,
th is
m eans
th a t
P r e s id e n t
B ush
in te n tio n a lly
a n d
k n o w in g ly
m isled
C ongress
i n
h is
c a s e
fo rw ar.
I n
fa c t,
o n e
c a n
a rg u e
th a t
h e
a n d
o th e r
o ffic ia ls ,
in c lu d in g
R ic h a rd
C heney,D o n a ld
R um sfeld,C o lin yP o w e ll,
C o n d a le e z a
R ic e ,
a n d
T o n y
B la ir,lie d
t o
th e
t o
th e
U N ,
t o
C ongress,
t o
th e
B ritish
P a rlia m e n t,
a n d
t o
th e
p u b lic .
T h is
i s
c le a rly
ille g a l
a n d
h o ld s
s e rio u s
im p lic a tio n s
fo r
a ll
th o s e
in v o lv e d .
I fi ti stru e
th a tth e
P re s id e n t
in te n tio n -
a lly
d e c e iv e d
C ongress
a n d
in d e e d
tw iste d
th e
in te llig e n c e ,
th is
w o u ld
v io la te
th e
F e d e ra l
A n ti-C o n s p ira c y
S ta tu te ,
w h ic h
m akes
i t
a
fe lo n y
" to
d e fra u d
th e
U n ite d
S ta te s
o r
a n y
a g e n c y
th e re o fi n
a n y
m annerfo ra n y
p u rp o s e ."
I n
a d d itio n ,th e
is s u a n c e
o f k n o w in g ly
a n d
w ill-
in g ly
f a ls e
s ta te m e n ts
t o
th e
C ongress
v io la te s
th e
F a ls e
S ta te m e n ts
A ct
o f
1 9 9 6 .
T hese
a re
im p e a c h a b le
o ffe n c e s .
N ot
o n ly
th a t,
b u tth is
w o u ld
m ean
th a t
te n s
o f
th o u s a n d s
o fin n o c e n t
I r a q is ,
a n d
o v e r
1 ,7 0 0
U S
a n d
C o a litio n
tro o p s,
h a v e
d ie d
a s
a
r e s u lt
o f
th e
in v a s io n
a n d
o c c u p a tio n
p ro p p e d
u p
a n d
j u s t i f i e d
b y
d e c e p tio n ,
lie s ,
a n d
p o liti-
c a l gam es.
T h is
to oh o ld ss e r i o u s
m oral
im p li-
c a tio n s
fo rth o s e
in v o lv e d
i n
th e
schem e.
F in a lly ,
i tm eans
th a t
B ush
a n d
c o .
h a v e
je o p a rd iz e d
n a tio n a l
s e c u rity
b y
fa b ric a tin g
e v id e n c e ,
m a k in g
f a ls e
a n d
c o n tra d ic to ry
c la im s ,
a n d
in te n tio n a lly
m is le a d in g
C ongress
in to
c e d in g
u n ila te ra l
pow er
t o
th e
P re s id e n tt o
m ake .w ar (th is
i n
its e lfr a i s e s
s e rio u s
c o n s titu -
tio n a l
is s u e s
o v e r
w ho
h a s
th e
a u th o rity
t o
d e c la re
a n d
w age
w ar).
F u rth e rm o re ,
th e y
h a v e
p o u re d
b illio n s
o f
d o lla rs ,
v a lu a b le
tim e,
a n d
fin ite
m anpow er
in to
th e
in v a s io n
a n d
o c c u p a -
tio n
o fa
c o u n try
th a tp o s e d
n o
c re d ib le
'im m i-
n e n tth re a t'
t o
th eU n ite d
S ta te s .
C u rre n t E v e n ts
B yM arcelV o tlu c k a
(o r
e v e n -ig n o rin g )
w h a te v e r
fa c ts
c o n tra d ic te d
th e irc a s e .
I n
o th e r
w ords,o ffic ia ls
w ere
b e in g
to ld
p rim arily
w hatth e y
w a n te d
t o
h e a r.
T he
A d m in istratio n
h a d
a n
a g e n d a
(in v a d in g
Ira q )
a n d
i t
seem ed
th a t
o n ly
th o s e
fa c ts
th a t
s u p -
p o rte d
a n d
j u s t i f i e d
th e ir
a g e n d a
w ere
w o rth
c o n s id e ra tio n
(how ever
te n u o u s
th o s e
fa c ts
m ay
h a v e
b e e n ).
G iv e n
th e
p o litic a l
a n d
le g a l
c o n te x t
b e h in d
th ew ar,o ffic ia ls
b e lie v e d
th a ts e e k in g
a
U N
re s o lu tio n
w o u ld
g ra n t
n e e d e d
le g itim a c y
t o
th e
w are ffo rt.
T h is
o c c u rre d
i n
la te
2 0 0 2 ,
b u t
w eapons
in s p e c to rs
fa ile d
t o
tu rn
u p
s u b s ta n -
tia l
e v id e n c e
th a t
H ussein
w as
am assing
o r
s to c k p ilin g
W M D s.
B ush
im m e d ia te ly
(a n d
fa ls e ly )c h a lk e d
th is
u p
t o
H ussein
b e in g
u n c o -
o p e ra tiv e
(h e
w as
i n
f a c t
c o o p e ra tiv e ).
A c c o rd in g
t o
th e
m em o," th e
tN a tio n a l
S e c u rity
C o u n c il]
h a d
n op a tie n c e
w ith
th e
U N
ro u te ,a n d
n o
e n th u s ia s m
fo r
p u b lis h in g
m a te ria l
o n
th e
Ira q ir e g i m e 'sre c o rd ."
T h isc o u lde x p la in
w hy,
w ith
o n ly
ac o u p leo f m o n th sa llo w e d
fo rin s p e c -
tio n s
t o
ta k e
p la c e
a n d
d e s p ite
l i t t l e
e v id e n c e
s u p p o rtin g
th e ir
c a s e ,
P re s id e n t
B u sh
h a s tily
is s u e d
h is
u ltim a tu m
t o
H ussein
a n d
b e g a n
p re p a ra tio n s
t o
in v a d e
Ira q .
H e
a n d
h is
p e o p le
w ered e a d
s e to n
g o in g
t o
w ar,
n o
m a tte r
w h a t.
M uch
o f th is
i s
n o tn e w
o rs h o c k in g
in fo
t oc ritic so fth e
w ar, w ho
h a v eb e e n
p o in tin g
o u t
v ,,lf
S ,
-
F
+1 6 ,A
r o
C
P a g e2
T e x to f th eD o w n in gS
tM e
S E C R E TA N D
S T R IC T L Y
P E R S O N A L --U K
E Y E SO N L Y
D A V ID
M A N N IN G
F ro m :
M a tth e w
R y c ro ft
D a te :
2 3
J u ly
2 0 0 2
S
1 9 5
/0 2
c c : D efence
S e c re ta ry ,
F o re ig n
S e c re ta ry ,
A tto rn e y -G e n e ra l,
S irR ic h a rd
W ilson,J o h n
S c a rle tt,
F ra n c is
R ichards,
C D S,
C ,
J o n a th a n
P o w e ll,
S a lly
M o rg a n ,
A la sta ir
C a m p b e ll
IR A Q :P R IM E
M IN IS T E R 'S
M E E T IN G ,2 3JU L Y
C opy
a d d r e s s e e s
a n d
y o u
m etth e
P rim e
M in ister
o n
2 3
J u ly
t o
d is c u s s
Ira q .
T h is
re c o rd
i s
e x tre m e ly
s e n s itiv e .
N o
fu rth e r
c o p ie s
s h o u ld
b e
m ade.
I t
s h o u ld
b e
show n
o n ly
t o
th o s e
w ith
ag e n u in e
n e e d
t ok n o w
i t sc o n te n ts .
J o h n
S c a rle tt
sum m arised
th e
in te llig e n c e
a n d
la te s t
J IC
assessm ent.
S a d d a m 's
reg im e
w as
to u g h
a n d
b a s e d
o n
e x tre m e
fe a r.
T he
o n ly
w ay
t o
o v e rth ro w
i t w aslik e ly
t ob eb y
m assive m ilitary
a c tio n .
S a d d a m
w as
w or-
rie d
a n d
e x p e c te d
a n
a tta c k ,p ro b a b ly
b ya ira n d
la n d ,b u th e
w asn o tc o n -
v in c e d
th a ti tw o u ld
b e
im m ed iate
o ro v e rw h e lm in g .
H is
reg im e
e x p e c te d
th e irn e ig h b o u rs
t o
lin e
u p
w ith
th e
U S.
S a d d a m
k n e w
th a tre g u la r
arm y
m o rale
w asp o o r.R ealsu p p o rtfo rS a d d a m
am ong
th e
p u b lic
w as
p ro b a b ly
n a rro w ly
b a s e d .
C
re p o rte d
o n
h is
re c e n t
ta lk s
i n
W a s h in g to n .
T h e re
w as
a
p e rc e p tib le
sh ift
i n
a ttitu d e .
M ilitary
a c tio n
w asn o w
s e e n
a sin e v ita b le .
B ush
w a n t-
e d
t o
re m o v e
Saddam ,
th ro u g h
m ilitary
a c tio n ,j u s t i f i e d
b y
th e
c o n ju n c -
tio n
o f
t e r r o r i s m
a n d
W M D.
B utth e
in te llig e n c e
a n d
fa c ts
w ere
b e in g
fix e d
a ro u n d
th e
p o lic y .
T he
N SC
h a d
n o
p a tie n c e
w ith
th e
U N
ro u te ,
a n d
n o
e n th u s ia s m
fo r
p u b lis h in g
m a te ria l
o n
th e
Ira q i
r e g i m e 's
re c o rd .
T h e re
w asl i t t l e
d is c u s s io n
i n
W a s h in g to n
o f th e
afterm ath
a fte r m ilitary
a c tio n .
B y M arcel V o tlu c k a
T he
D efence
S e c re ta ry
s a id
th a t
th e
U S
h a d
a lre a d y
b e g u n
" s p ik e s
o f
a c tiv ity "
t o
p u tp r e s s u r e
o n
th e
re g im e .
N o
d e c is io n s
h a d
b e e n
ta k e n ,
b u t
h e
th o u g h tth e
m ost lik e ly
tim in g
i n
U S
m in d s
fo r m ilitary
a c tio n
t o
b e g in
w as-
J a n u a ry ,
w ith
th e
tim elin e
b e g in n in g
3 0
d a y s
b e fo re
th e
U S
C ongressional
e le c tio n s .
T he
F o re ig n
S e c re ta ry
s a id
h e
w o u ld
d is c u s s
th is
w ith
C o lin
P o w e ll
th is
w eek.
I t
seem ed
c le a r
th a t
B ush
h a d
m ade
u p
h is
m in d
t o
ta k e
m ilitary
a c tio n ,
e v e n
i fth e
tim in g
w as
n o t
y e t
d e c id e d .
B ut
th e
c a s e
w as
th in .
S a d d a m
w as
n o t th re a te n in g
h is
n e ig h b o u rs ,
a n d
h is
W M D
c a p a b ility
w as
le s sth a n
th a to f L ib y a ,N o rth
K orea
o rIra n .W e
s h o u ldw ork
u pap la n
fo r
a n
u ltim a tu m
t oS a d d a m
t o
a llo w
b a c k
i n
th eU N
w eapons
in s p e c to rs .T h is
w o u ld
a ls o
h e lp
w ith
th e
le g a l
ju s tific a tio n
fo r
th e
u se
o f
fo rc e .
T he
A tto rn e y -G e n e ra l
s a id
th a t
th e
d e s ir e
fo r
reg im e
c h a n g e
w as
n o t
a
le g a lb a s efo rm ilitary
a c tio n .T h e re
w ereth re e
p o s s ib lele g a lb a s e s :s e l f -
d e fe n c e ,
h u m a n ita ria n
in te rv e n tio n ,
or U N SC
a u th o ris a tio n .T he
f i r s ta n d
s e c o n d
c o u ld
n o tb eth eb a s e
i nth is
c a s e .R e ly in g
o nU N S C R
1 2 0 5
o f th re e
y e a rs
a g o
w o u ld
b e
d iffic u lt.
T he
s itu a tio n
m ig h to fc o u r s e
c h a n g e .
T he
P rim e
M in ister
s a id
th a t
i t
w o u ld
m ake
a
b ig
d iffe re n c e
p o litic a lly
a n d
le g a lly
i f
S a d d a m
r e f u s e d
t o
a llo w
i n
th e
U N
in s p e c to rs .
R e g im e
c h a n g e
a n d
W M D
w ere
lin k e d
i n
th e
s e n s e
th a ti t w as
th e reg im e
th a tw as
p ro d u c in g
th e
W M D.
T h e re
w ere
d iffe re n t
s tra te g ie s
fo r
d e a lin g
w ith
L ib y a
a n d
Ira n .I fth e
p o litic a l
c o n te x tw ere
rig h t,
p e o p le
w o u ld
su p p o rt
reg im e
c h a n g e .T he tw o
k e y
is s u e s
w erew h e th e rth e
m ilitary
p la n
w o rk e d
a n d
w h e th e r
w e
h a d
th e
p o litic a l
s tra te g y
t o
g iv e
th e
m ilitary
p la n
th e
s p a c e
t o
w o rk .
O n
th e
f i r s t ,
C D S
s a id
th a tw e
d id
n o tk n o w
y e ti fth e
U S
b a ttle p la n
w as
w o rk a b le .
T he
m ilitary
w ere
c o n tin u in g
t o
a s k
lo ts
o f
q u e s tio n s .
F o rin s ta n c e ,
w hat w ere
th e
c o n s e q u e n c e s ,
i fS a d d a m
u s e d
W M D
o n
d a y
o n e ,o ri f B aghdad
d idn o t c o lla p s e
a n d
u rb a nw a rfig h tin g
b e g a n ?
Y ou
s a id
th a tS a d d a m
c o u ld
a ls o
u se
h is
W M D
o n
K u w a it.
O r
o n
I s r a e l,
a d d e d
th e
D efence
S e c re ta ry .
C D S
s a id
th a t
m ilitary
p la n n e rs
w o u ld
b rie f
C E N T C O M
o n
1 -2
A u g u s t,
R u m sfeld
o n
3
A ugust
a n d
B ush
o n
4
A u g u s t.
tw o
b ro a d
U S
o p tio n s
(a )
G e n e ra te d
S ta rt.
A
s lo w
b u ild -u p
o f
2 5 0 ,0 0 0
U S
tro o p s,
a
sh o rt
(7 2
h o u r)a irc a m p a ig n ,
th e n
a
m ove
u p
t o
B aghdad
fro m
th e
s o u th .L ead
tim e
o f
9 0
d a y s
(3 0
d a y s
p re p a ra tio n
p lu s
6 0
d a y s
d e p lo y m e n t
t o
K u w ait).
(b )
R u n n in g
S ta rt.
U se
fo rc e s
a lre a d y
i n
th e a tre
( 3
x
6 ,0 0 0 ),
c o n tin u o u s
a ir
c a m p a ig n ,
in itia te d
b y
a n
Ira q ic a s u sb e lli.T o ta lle a d
tim eo f6 0
d a y s
w ith
th e
a ir
c a m p a ig n
b e g in n in g
e v e n
e a rlie r.
A
h a z a rd o u s
o p tio n .
T he
U S
s a w
th e
U K
(a n d
K u w a it)
a se s s e n tia l,w ith
b a s in g
i nD ie g o
G arcia
a n d
C y p ru s
c ritic a l
fo re ith e r
o p tio n .
T u rk e y
a n d
o th e r
G u lf
s ta te s
w ere
a ls o
im p o rta n t,
b u t le s s
v ita l.T he
th re e
m ain
o p tio n sfo rU K
in v o lv e m e n t
w ere:
( i)
B a s in g
in -
D ie g o
G arcia
a n d
C y p ru s,
p lu s
th re e
S F
s q u a d ro n s .
( i i )
A s
a b o v e ,
w ith
m aritim e
a n d
a ir
a s s e ts
i n
a d d itio n .
( i i i )
A sa b o v e ,
p lu s
a
la n d
c o n trib u tio n
o fu p
t o
4 0 ,0 0 0 ,
d is c re te
ro le
i n
N o rth e rn
I r a qe n te rin g
fro m
T u rk e y ,
ty in g
d iv is io n s .
p e rh a p s
w ith
a
dow n tw o
Ira q i
U SG
S e n a te
M eeti
iu n
g s
It...a..
It ' s
a
m
adh
o
se
C u rre n t E v e n ts
It 's
a
m
a
td h ou se
!
I t ' s
a
m na d
0
h o u se
I
T he
F o re ig n
S e c re ta ry
th o u g h t
th e
U S
w o u ld
n o tg o
a h e a d
w ith
a
m ilitary
p la n
u n le s s
c o n v in c e d
th a ti tw as
aw in n in g
s tra te g y .
O n
th is ,U S
a n d
U K
in te re s ts
c o n v e rg e d .
B ut
o n
th e
p o litic a l
s tra te g y ,
th e re
c o u ld
b e
U S /U K
d iffe re n c e s .
D esp ite
U S
r e s is ta n c e ,
w e s h o u ld
e x p lo re
d is c re e tly
th e
u lti-
m atum .S a d d a m
w o u ld
c o n tin u e
t o
p la y
h a rd -b a ll
w ith
th e
U N .
J o h n
S c a rle tt
a s s e s s e d
th a t
S a d d a m
w o u ld
a llo w
th e
in s p e c to rs
b a c k
in
o n ly
w hen
h e
th o u g h t
th e
th re a t
o f
m ilitary
a c tio n
w as
re a l.
T he D efence
S e c re ta ry
s a id
th a ti fth e
P rim e
M in isterw a n te d
U K
m ilitary
in v o lv e m e n t,
h e
w o u ld
n e e d
t o
d e c id e
th is
e a rly .
H e
c a u tio n e d
th a tm any
i n
th e
U S
d id
n o t th in k
i t w o rth
g o in g
dow n
th e
u ltim a tu m
ro u te .I tw o u ld
b e
im p o rta n t
fo r
th e
P rim e
M in ister
t o
s e t
o u t
th e
p o litic a l
c o n te x t
t o
B u sh
C o n c lu s io n s :
(a )W e
s h o u ld
w ork
o n
th e
a s s u m p tio n
th a tth eU K
w q u ld
ta k e
p a rt
i na n y
m ilitary
a c tio n .
B utw e
n e e d e d
a
fu lle rp ic tu re
o fU S
p la n n in g
b e fo re
w e
c o u ld
ta k e
a n y
f i r m
d e c is io n s .
C D S
s h o u ld
te ll
th e
U S
m ilitary
th a t
w e
w ere
c o n s id e rin g
a
ra n g e
o f o p tio n s .
(b )
T he
P rim e
M in ister
w o u ld
re v e rt
o n
th e
q u e s tio n
o f
w h e th e r
fu n d s
c o u ld ,
b e
s p e n t
i n
p re p a ra tio n
fo r.
th is
o p e ra tio n .
(c )
C D S
w o u ld
s e n dth e
P rim e
M in ister
fu lld e ta ils
o fth e
p ro p o s e d
m ili-
ta ry
c a m p a ig n
a n d
p o s s ib le
U K
c o n trib u tio n s
b y
th e
e n d
o f
th e
w eek.
(d )
T he
F o re ig n
S e c re ta ry
w o u ld
s e n d
th e
P rim e
M in ister
th e
b a c k g ro u n d
o n
th e
U N
in s p e c to rs ,
a n d
d is c re e tly
w ork
u p
th e
u ltim a tu m
t o
Saddam .
H e
w o u ld
a ls o
s e n d
th e
P rim e
M in ister
a d v ic e
o n
th e
p o s itio n s
o fc o u n -
trie s
i n
th e
re g io n
e s p e c ia lly
T u rk e y ,
a n d
o f th e
k e y
E U
m em ber
s ta te s .
(e )
J o h n
S c a rle tt
w o u ld
s e n d
th e
P rim e
M in ister
a
fu ll
in te llig e n c e
u p d a te .
( f )W e
m ustn o tig n o re
th ele g a l
is s u e s :
th e
A tto rn e y -G e n e ra l
w o u ld
c o n -
s id e r
le g a l
a d v ic e
w ith
F C O /M O D
le g a l
a d v is e r s .
( I
h a v e
w ritte n
s e p a ra te ly
t o
com m ission
th is
fo llo w -u p
w o rk .)
M A TTH EW
R Y C R O F T
(R y c ro ft
w as
aD o w n in g
S tre e tfo re ig n
p o lic y
a id e )
(O rig in a lly
re p o rte d
i n
th e
T im e so fL o n d o n ,
M ay
1 ,2 0 0 5 )
P a g e3
m o
T he

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