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GARINHARTYANG

RESEARCH GROUP

1724 Connecti cut Avenue, NW
Washi ngton, DC 20009
Tel : (202) 234-5570
Fax: (202) 232-8134
M E M O R A N D U M
TO: DSCC
FROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
DATE: September 8, 2014
RE: Survey in NC Senate Race

From September 3 to 6, 2014, Garin-Hart-Yang interviewed a sample of 802 likely
voters in North Carolina. The survey, which has a margin of error of 3.5
percentage points, was conducted among randomly selected voters on the state
voter file who voted in both 2010 and 2012, registered after 2010 and voted in
2012, or registered since the 2012 general election. This very conservative
sampling methodology yields a survey sample that leans much more Republican
than the electorate as a whole, with a narrow 6-point Democratic advantage in
party registration (compared to an 11-point advantage among all registered
voters). Some survey results are compared to a prior survey conducted June 20-24
among a sample of 801 likely voters (selected using the same rigorous screening
criteria).
Over the course of the summer, Senator Kay Hagan has withstood an
avalanche of negative advertising and actually opened up a 3-point lead
over Speaker Thom Tillis. In the current survey Hagan leads by a margin of
48% to 45%, compared to a dead heat (44% to 44%) in June. Senator Hagan
enjoys slightly stronger support from self-identified Democrats (92%) than Speaker
Tillis receives from Republicans (90%), and also leads narrowly among
independents (40% to 39%). She also has a commanding 11-point lead among
North Carolina women (52% to 41%).
A look at underlying dimensions suggests that this pro-Hagan shift in vote
preferences may even understate the extent to which the race has shifted
in her favor. Over the past ten weeks, Hagans net favorability ratings have
increased substantially, from -9 (33% positive, 42% negative), to about even at -1
(39%, 40%). This is a remarkable accomplishment for an incumbent senator facing
an onslaught of attack ads. In contrast, Speaker Tillis has not been able to improve
the negative perception held by his states voters. He was viewed negatively by a
6-point margin in June (22% positive, 28% negative), and his negative rating has
now grown by eight points while the positive proportion increased by seven points,
leaving him with a net negative rating of -7 points (29%, 36%).
GARINHARTYANG RESEARCH GROUP

One major problem for Speaker Tillis is that he is seen as badly out of step with
North Carolinians commitment to public education. By a 24-point margin, voters
say that Tillis went too far in cutting education as speaker of the House (52% say
this is true, 28% not true). Fully 56% of North Carolina women agree this is true.
Speaker Tillis public support is also severely constrained by voters recognition of
his record of consistently siding with the wealthy over average North Carolina
families. Consider these dramatic results:
By 25 points, voters say that Tillis favors too many special tax breaks for
the wealthy and big corporations (52% true, 27% not true).
By 20 points, voters agree that Tillis looks out too much for the wealthy
special interests, instead of average people (51% true, 31% not true).
In short, as voters learn more about Speaker Tillis the negative consistently
outweighs the positive.

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