PCEI Report 2010 Final Email-Web Version

1Pierce Cuny Ecnmic Index¦

DISCOVERY LEADS TO RECOVERY

2009-2010 REPoRt

2¦Pierce Cuny Ecnmic Index

PCEI Frecasers

Bruce D. Mann, Ph.D., has been a proessor o economics at the University o Puget Soundsince 1975. Dr. Mann came to the Tacoma area romIndiana University where he received both his master’sand doctorate degrees in economics. He completedhis undergraduate work at Antioch College in YellowSprings, Ohio.One o Dr. Mann’s particular areas o teachinginterest and research deals with the operations o localeconomies. He has published research related to theimpacts o local government subsidies to businesses,nancing or housing and rent control issues. Dr. Mann has been active in local community aairs as a consultant or the City o Tacoma, PierceCounty government and numerous civic groups andassociations. He has been a member o the PugetSound Regional Council advisory group on long rangeorecasting and a board member o the Upper TacomaRenaissance Association.Douglas E. Goodman, Ph.D., has been a proessoro economics at the University o Puget Sound since1977. He came rom the University o Illinois wherehe received his master’s and doctorate degrees.Dr. Goodman’s teaching responsibilites ocus onmonetary economics and econometrics.His research interests are in the areas o nancialmarkets and institutions, personal nance,macroeconomics and applied econometrics andorecasting. In addition to these activities, Dr.Goodman has been active in consulting or bothpublic and private groups.In 2007 he was awarded a Burlington NorthernCurriculum Development Grant to devise a newcourse called “Economic Data and Analysis”. Thisapplied course is designed to promote understandingo economic statistics.

Credis

Publisher: David GraybillProject Manager: Gary BrackettGraphic Designer: Christina KitchensPhotography: Chip Van Gilder, Philip Palermo, Port o Tacoma and Chamber Sta Printer: J & D Printing©Copyright 2009 Tacoma-Pierce County Chamber. All rights reserved.

Douglas E. Goodman, Ph.D.

Proessor o EconomicsUniversity o Puget Sound

Bruce D. Mann, Ph.D.

Proessor o EconomicsUniversity o Puget Sound

Printed on environmentally responsible managed orestresources

3Pierce Cuny Ecnmic Index¦

Executive Summary 4-5Pierce County Economic Index 6-7Retail Sales Activity 8-9Labor Activity & Unemployment 10-12Personal Income 12-13Housing and Real Estate 14-15Port of acoma 16-17Data ables 18-19Special Tanks 20PCEI Sponsors 21Industry Publications 22Save the Date 23

table f Cnens

labor sectors o the economy, as well as local income.This procedure has proved to be very reliableand has generated orecasts that have been statistically accurate. The data sets were chosen or their testedrelevance, timely availability and consistency o reporting. Authors o the PCEI, Drs. Bruce Mann andDouglas Goodman, proessors o economics at theUniversity o Puget Sound (UPS), present the orecastin a general conerence session.In addition to the PCEI, Drs. Mann and Goodman alsoestimate a local Housing Index. This Index measuresthe amount o sales activity or single-amily homes(detached and condominium) in Pierce County.Data on sales and listings are the primary data sources,but the model itsel is based on the particular historicalstructure o the single-amily sales activity in the local area.Because o the lag in publication o resource economicdata, each PCEI Report orecasts or a period coveringthe last two quarters o the current year (2009) and theull calendar year ahead (2010).

Methodology

The Pierce County Economic Index (PCEI) is uniqueto Pierce County and an exceptional business toolrarely duplicated in other communities. The orecastis constructed rom more than 25 local, regional andnational data sets.The model developed or the Pierce County EconomicIndex is recongured and recalibrated each year to takeadvantage o new inormation, data and conditions. Inaddition to the statistical method, the orecast includes judgmental actors.These actors include extensive analysis o the year’slocal economic events, a review o the prior orecastsand consideration o national and internationalactivity. The combination o the statistical and the judgmental approaches allows each year’s orecast tocapture past perormances as well as a orward-lookingmethod to present an understanding o currentconditions and likely short-term uture outcomes.The PCEI itsel is used to orecast the overalleconomic condition or the county. The statisticalmodel is also used to orecast activity in the retail and