Open Briefing | 1

The weekly briefing | 15 September 2014

Political and security risk updates


Tese briefings are produced by Bradburys Global Risk Partners in collaboration
!it Open Briefing.
Africa: "igerian forces on ig alert follo!ing increase in fre#uency of Boko $aram
operations in Borno State%
Aericas: &ilean president's flagsip ta( reform recei)es congressional appro)al%
Asia and Pacific: *alaysia offers to ost +S maritime sur)eillance aircraft despite
likely opposition from &ina%
!urope: ,uropean +nion and +nited States impose additional sanctions on -ussia%
"iddle !ast: Syrian army regains control of $alfaya from al."usra /ront%
Polar regions: "e! sanctions against -ussia amper 0estern oil companies' 1rctic
oil ambitions%
1frica
#igerian forces on high alert following increase in fre$uency of Boko %ara
operations in Borno &tate
Te "igerian military as been placed on ig alert in te norteastern city of
*aiduguri and surrounding areas of Borno State follo!ing Boko $aram2s takeo)er
of nearby to!ns% 1 military spokesman announced on 11 September tat defence
arrangements ad been strengtened to protect cities in te region3 but blamed
4alarmists' for creating panic o)er te security situation% Te bolstering of security
measures in *aiduguri follo!s a stark !arning from te Borno ,lders /orum 5B,/6
regarding te ad)ancements made by Boko $aram to!ards te city3 and te need
for increased fortification to repel a potential attack%
Te need for te "igerian military to pre)ent Boko $aram from making furter
territorial gains as become increasingly urgent follo!ing te recent capture of
se)eral to!ns in 1dama!a3 Borno and 7obe states3 and te proclamation last mont
of a calipate spanning te territories eld by Boko $aram% Boko $aram figters
a)e effecti)ely ad)anced to !itin 50 kilometres of *aiduguri3 and reports suggest
tat te 8slamist militant group as largely isolated te city by gaining control of
surrounding transport routes% 9espite te !arning from te B,/ and te upgrading
of security measures in te area3 te "igerian defence ministry as released se)eral
press statements do!nplaying te se)erity of te treat to te city%
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Te contrasting portrayals of te se)erity of te degrading security situation in Borno State by te B,/
and te defence ministry are indicati)e of te increased public and international pressure placed upon te
"igerian go)ernment !it regards to its efforts to effecti)ely mitigate te acti)ities of Boko $aram% 8t is
!idely percei)ed tat te "igerian go)ernment's efforts in te norteast of te country a)e to date been
largely ineffectual3 despite increasing le)els of international assistance follo!ing te official designation
of Boko $aram as a /oreign Terrorist Organisation by te +nited States in "o)ember 201:% 8t is likely tat
te issue of effecti)e responses to Boko $aram !ill be a notable point on te agenda of a +S.caired +"
Security &ouncil meeting ne(t !eek on global counterterrorism responses% Te Boko $aram 8slamist
insurgency represents a serious treat to "igeria2s territorial integrity3 and it is likely tat international
inter)ention !ill be necessary to address te "igerian go)ernments' sortcomings in effecti)ely dealing
!it te organisation% 0itout suc inter)ention3 Boko $aram is igly likely to make furter territorial
ad)ances in te norteast of "igeria%
Other de(elopents
)enya appointed a new intelligence chief on 11 &epteber in the face of the rising threat fro al*
&habaab in neighbouring &oalia. *a;or.<eneral Pilip =ameru !as appointed as te ne! director
general of =enya2s "ational 8ntelligence Ser)ice in a mo)e regarded as an attempt by President +uru
=enyatta to address public dissatisfaction !it te apparent failure of te security ser)ices in andling te
treat of al.Sabaab o)er te pre)ious year% Te armed group is likely to engage in retaliation operations
in te coming !eeks3 after one of te group's leader3 1med <odane3 !as assassinated in a +S drone
strike t!o !eeks ago%
The head of the +# &upport "ission in ,ibya -+#&".,/ has urged the country0s ri(al ilitias to
coit to a ceasefire and o(e towards a political settleent. Te ne!ly.appointed Bernardino >eon
made te statement as e )isited te eastern city of Tobruk on ? September% Te >ibyan parliament as
become increasingly isolated in recent monts as t!o disparate military coalitions in Tobruk and Tripoli
!restle for control of te >ibyan go)ernment% Te current >ibyan go)ernment passed an anti.terrorism
la!3 and pro.go)ernment forces are attempting to counter te ri)al groups' attempted takeo)er of te
city of Benga@i% Te most recent turmoil represents te most serious destabilisation of te country since
te o)ertro! of dictator *uammar <addafi in 2011%
&udanese opposition leader .brahi al*&heikh is to be released fro prison. On 10 September3 Tabo
*beki3 ead of te 1frican +nion2s $ig 8mplementation Panel3 announced tat Sudanese President Omar
al.Basir ad responded to mediation efforts% Te country2s "ational 8ntelligence and Security Ser)ice
arrested al.Seik in Aune follo!ing is comments criticising Sudan2s -apid Support /orces3 accusing tem
of abuses in conflict @ones% -egional mediators ope to reac a frame!ork agreement bet!een te
opposing sides at a conference in 1ddis 1baba3 ,tiopia3 ne(t mont%
On the radar
The +# &ecurity 1ouncil is to hold consultations on the ,ibyan sanctions regie on 15
September%
The +# &ecurity 1ouncil will be briefed on the +# "ission in ,iberia -+#".,/ by )arin
,andgren2 special representati(e of the secretary*general2 later tis mont%
A report on &oalia by the +#3s eergency relief coordinator is due on 20 September%
The +#12 !1.4! and +4P& parties plan to stage further protests in )inshasa2 1ongo.
.ncreased risk of attacks by al*&habaab surrounding the anni(ersary of the 5estgate "all
attack on 21.24 September%
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1mericas
1hilean president3s flagship ta7 refor recei(es congressional appro(al
On 10 September3 &ilean President *icelle Bacelet's emblematic ta( reform recei)ed te final
appro)al of te national congress after monts of debate% Te ta( o)eraul !as at te cornerstone of
Bacelet's presidential campaign in 2014 as se gained te backing of te country's po!erful student
unions !it te promise of free education amongst oter initiati)es% Te ne! ta( package increases
corporate and oter ta(es and remo)es some ta( breaks in order to elp pay for &ile's education and
ealt care systems% 1mong te most notable canges put for!ard are a general increase in corporate ta(
from 20B to 2CB and te elimination of te utility ta( fund 5+T/63 a mecanism created under 1ugusto
Pinocet's military dictatorsip tat allo!ed companies to a)oid paying ta(es on rein)ested profits%
1ccording to te go)ernment3 te bill !ill raise an additional D?%: billion a year after te )arious measures
take effect o)er te ne(t fe! years%
Tese reforms are te greatest canges to te country's ta( system since te early 1EE0s3 and represent
te acie)ement of a ma;or agenda of Bacelet's presidential programme% Te appro)ed bill also offers a
concrete response to te !a)e of protests demanding better !ealt distribution tat a)e it te country
o)er recent years% $o!e)er3 congressional appro)al only came after te go)ernment backpedalled on
se)eral proposals tat angered te business sector and te opposition3 as critics posed tat iger ta(es
!ould damage te economy and discourage in)estment% Opinion polls also found tat many &ileans
feared tat iger ta(es !ould translate into less economic gro!t and lead to increased prices%
"e)erteless3 te ne! ta( regime aims to elp small and medium enterprises to in)est3 and !ill pro)ide
muc needed finances for te go)ernment to implement its ambitious education reforms%
Te ne! ta( regime represents a ma;or )ictory for Bacelet3 and increases confidence in er ability to
implement te ambitious programme tat se un)eiled during er election campaign% 1s suc3 te
announcement of te ne! reforms is likely to tame discontent and bring an end to te demonstrations
tat a)e increased in te past fe! monts amid a nation!ide economic deceleration%
Other de(elopents
On 8 &epteber2 a bob attack at a busy etro station in 1hile3s capital2 &antiago2 in9ured 1: people.
8n recent monts3 residents of Santiago a)e !itnessed an increase in bomb attacks3 but until no! most
de)ices a)e been small and triggered during te nigt !en te streets are empty% Oter de)ices a)e
targeted public institutions3 diplomatic ser)ices and financial companies% 1bout ?0 groups !it di)erse
moti)es a)e so far claimed responsibility for tese attacks%
O(er ': people were arrested following a (iolent protest in ;ene<uela3s capital2 1aracas2 on 1'
&epteber. Te protest mostly in)ol)ed pro.opposition students !o clased !it te police in te
district of Bello *onte% 8t marked se)en monts since massi)e student protests against te go)ernment
!ere first reported in te country% 8n response to te protest3 te president of Fene@uela's national
assembly3 9iosdado &abello3 accused te demonstrators of inciting oter students to take to te streets
aead of te start of a ne! academic year%

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"e7ican authorities ha(e reported the first*e(er disco(ery of a coca plantation in the country. On 11
September3 official sources reported te disco)ery of a 13250 s#uare metre field containing o)er 13G00
coca plants in te souteastern state of &iapas3 near te border !it <uatemala% 0ile drug cartels a)e
commonly operated laboratories in *e(ico for cocaine processing3 coca production is centred on te
1ndean region of Sout 1merica% $o!e)er3 te toug measures taken by Sout 1merican go)ernments3
especially in Peru and &olombia3 may be pusing coca production nort!ards into &entral 1merica% Te
disco)ery of a plantation in *e(ico may indicate tat te *e(ican cartels are considering brancing into
coca production3 allo!ing tem to control te !ole process from production to processing to
transportation3 cutting out te soutern suppliers%
On the radar
General election to be held in +ruguay on 2G October%
The ;ene<uelan go(ernent has e7tended the night*tie closure of its border with 1olobia
for a furter tree monts%
&upporters loyal to !cuadorian President Rafael 1orrea are to rally outside the Palacio de
1arondelet in the capital2 =uito2 on 1C September%
1sia and Pacific
"alaysia offers to host +& aritie sur(eillance aircraft despite likely opposition fro 1hina
Te +S cief of na)al operations3 1dmiral Aonatan <reenert3 re)ealed last !eek tat *alaysia as offered
to ost +S maritime sur)eillance aircraft% Te *alaysian go)ernment as reportedly offered to allo! te
+nited States to fly se)eral P.? Poseidon aircraft from one of its air force bases3 most likely on >abuan off
te coast of Borneo% 8n 1pril3 te +nited States signed a broad agreement to increase bilateral cooperation
!it *alaysia on a range of issues during President Barack Obama's )isit to te country% "e)erteless3 no
specific agreements regarding P.? fligts out of *alaysia a)e been officially appro)ed by te +nited
States "a)y3 and te +S state department stated last !eek tat te +nited States as no plans for a
permanent presence in *alaysia%
8n addition to te *alaysian offer3 Singapore and te Pilippines a)e already agreed to ost +S military
forces% Te *alaysian base in >abuan is near te Spratly 8slands3 !ic are claimed by bot *alaysia and
&ina% 0ile3 te Pilippines a)e !armly !elcomed te increase in +S forces in te region to counter
!at tey belie)e is aggressi)e &inese territorial e(pansion o)er disputed territories3 *alaysia as been
esitant to criticise &inese bea)iour% "e)erteless3 it is tougt tat te *alaysia 1irlines /ligt :C0
incident as increased *alaysia's asserti)eness to!ards &ina3 as te incident not only e(posed
!eaknesses in *alaysia's air defence system but also pro)oked criticism from te &inese% 8f te +nited
States does decide to accept te *alaysian offer3 it !ill pro)ide increased sur)eillance and military
capability in te Sout &ina Sea%

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P.?s are sur)eillance and reconnaissance aircraft also capable of undertaking anti.submarine and anti.
surface !arfare and sipping interdiction% 8n 1ugust 20143 te +nited States criticised te &inese air
force for its unortodo( interception of a P.? off te coast of $ainan3 a strategically important &inese
island% 0ile te interception of te aircraft !as normal3 te +nited States reported tat te &inese
engaged in unsafe and unpredictable manoeu)res tat endangered bot aircraft% Te &inese denied
!rongdoing3 and a)e since urged te +nited States to cease or scale.back monitoring acti)ities on its
coastline% 8n 20013 a +S sur)eillance aircraft collided !it a &inese figter ;et due to dangerous
manoeu)ring by te &inese aircraft according to te +nited States% 1ltoug no official comment on te
*alaysian offer as been released3 te &inese are likely to strongly oppose te increased presence of +S
air sur)eillance forces in te Sout &ina Sea and surrounding regions% &ina is likely to percei)e any
increased +S presence in te region as an effort to contain &inese economic and military e(pansion%
Other de(elopents
?our people were killed on 11 &epteber during a raid on a go(ernent building in Pattani2 Thailand.
Suspected rebels carried out te raid in te =ok Po district of Pattani &ity% Te city is located in soutern
Tailand3 and as been te site of se)eral oter insurgent attacks% Te insurgency in Tailand's sout
began appro(imately 12 years ago3 and as left o)er G3000 people dead% Se)eral uman rigts groups and
citi@en acti)ists a)e criticised te autorities for alleged uman rigts )iolations% Tey allege tat te
military as carried out e(tra;udicial killings and detainment !itout carge% Te ruling military ;unta as
stated tat it opes to increase negotiations !it te rebel leaders% 1t te last round of peace talks3 te
rebels demanded increased autonomy% Te military ;unta as reportedly sent security officials to *alaysia
to promote dialogue !it rebel leaders3 !o are belie)ed to be iding near =uala >umpur%
Two ?ilipino soldiers were killed on 11 &epteber during a clash with "usli rebels in "indanao. Te
rebels reportedly belonged to te Bangsamoro 8slamic /ront /igters 5B8//6% >ate on 10 September3
appro(imately 20 rebels attacked a military detacment3 and an army unit !as sent to intercept tem
early in te morning of 11 September% >ocal reports indicate tat as many as 10 rebels and t!o soldiers
!ere killed in te contact3 !ic lasted appro(imately t!o ours% B8// !as formerly part of te larger
*uslim rebel group operating in te Pilippines3 te *oro 8slamic >iberation /ront 5*8>/63 but broke a!ay
in 200?% Te clas took place ;ust one day after President Benigno 1#uino 888 asked te legislature to pass a
la! tat !ould establis *uslim autonomy for te region%
A bob attack in Bangladesh left ore than 1' people in9ured on 1@ &epteber. Te attack took place
at &ittagong +ni)ersity in sout!estern Banglades3 appro(imately 250 kilometres from te capital3
9aka3 and !as carried out by te student group 8slami &atra Sibir 58&S6% On 10 September3 student
demonstrators ad gatered on te uni)ersity's campus to demand te reopening of se)eral student
dormitories% T!o indi)iduals affiliated !it 8&S allegedly tre! e(plosi)es at buses tat !ere in te )icinity
of te protests% 1t least se)en teacers and fi)e students !ere in;ured during te attack% Te t!o
indi)iduals !ere arrested sortly after te attacks% 8&S is a political student organisation affiliated !it te
political party Banglades Aamaat.e.8slami 5Aamaat6% 8n 1ugust 201:3 te Banglades Supreme &ourt ruled
tat Aamaat.e.8slami !as unfit to contest national elections and te registration of te party !as
terefore illegal% Te ruling sparked strong protest in many parts of te country% 8n 1EC13 te precursor to
te party !as )iolently opposed to independence from Pakistan3 and se)eral of its senior leaders are
accused of committing !ar crimes%
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On the radar
Thailand3s Prie "inister Prayuth 1han*ocha will (isit "yanar in late September or early
October on an official state )isit%
&outh )orea2 Bapan and 1hina ha(e agreed to arrange a high*le(el trilateral suit by te
end of 2014%
1hina is e7pected to coit to in(esting ore than C1@@ billion in the .ndian econoy2 nearly
tree times te in)estment by Aapan%
1hinese President Di Binping will continue his tour of &outh Asia this week !it )isits to te
*aldi)es3 Sri >anka and 8ndia%
.ndonesia3s parliaent will consider abolishing direct elections for go(ernors and district
chiefs o)er te ne(t tree !eeks%
,urope
!uropean +nion and +nited &tates ipose additional sanctions on Russia
On E September3 te ,uropean +nion and te +nited States bot announced additional sanctions to be
placed on -ussia3 follo!ing *osco!'s continued aggression to!ards +kraine and support for rebels in te
east of te country% 0asington and Brussels a)e imposed sanctions on -ussian banks and energy and
defence companies H sectors of te -ussian economy controlled largely by =remlin officials% 0ile
+krainian President Petro Porosenko as ackno!ledged a large.scale !itdra!al of -ussian regular
forces from is country in line !it te recently reaced ceasefire agreement3 "1TO military officials a)e
asserted tat appro(imately 13000 -ussian troops are suspected to be still operating in eastern +kraine3
!it an additional 203000 troops amassed on te -ussian side of te border%
Te latest round of sanctions imposed by te 0est appear associated !it "1TO's assertion tat3 despite
te agreement3 -ussia as ignored calls by te 0est to respect +kraine's territorial integrity and is still
largely in)ol)ed in military operations in te region% Te sanctions include loan restrictions to ma;or
-ussian banks and te imposition of tra)el bans and asset free@es for a furter 24 indi)iduals linked to te
=remlin and pro.-ussian separatists% <i)en te announcement by President of te ,uropean &ouncil $enry
Fan -ompuy tat ,+ sanctions targeting te -ussian oil and defence industries could be lifted if te
ceasefire remains in place3 it is clear tat te 0est intends to imposed a sustained economic cost on -ussia
in order to facilitate te success of te 12.point ceasefire agreement signed on 5 September%
&urrently3 te 0est is moderately restricting -ussia's lucrati)e oil industry3 !ic as largely been )ie!ed
as te country's economic lifeline and a strong tool of political influence upon -ussia's neigbouring
states% $o!e)er3 te 0est as yet to impose sanctions on -ussia's gas3 space tecnology and nuclear
energy industries% <i)en reports tat te -ussian economy e(perienced a period of @ero gro!t during
1pril and Aune 20143 it is clear tat te treat of sanctions in tese industries may a)e te ability to force
greater cooperation from te =remlin in order to pre)ent te -ussian economy from itting a period of
recession% 8t is igly likely tat te 0est !ill continue to e(ert economic pressure upon -ussia in order to
facilitate political reconciliation in eastern +kraineI o!e)er3 te success of tese measures !ill ultimately
depend on te cost tat -ussia is !illing to endure for its continued in)ol)ement in te crisis%

Open Briefing | E
Other de(elopents
+krainian ilitary forces claied to ha(e pre(ented pro*Russia rebels fro taking o(er the
international airport in 4onetsk on 16 &epteber. Te airport as been protected by a couple of
undred +krainian troops since Aune% >ocal media reported tat artillery and rocket launcers ad been
used during te attempted siege% Te attack !as one of te largest battles since te fragile ceasefire !as
agreed on 5 September%
On 11 &epteber2 thousands of 1atalans rallied in Barcelona calling for a referendu on the region3s
independence fro &pain. Te up.coming Scottis referendum as added fuel to demands for a
referendum in &atalonia tat a)e notably increased in popularity since te onset of Spain's economic
crisis% Te regional go)ernment in &atalonia as called for a referendum on E "o)ember% $o!e)er3 te
Spanis go)ernment as called te proposed referendum illegal and opposes te separation% &atalonia is
one of Spain's ricest and most industrialised regions%
On 8*F &epteber2 A<erbai9an hosted the fourth inforal eeting of foreign inisters of fi(e of the
si7 !astern Partnership countries H +kraine3 *oldo)a3 <eorgia3 1@erbai;an and Belarus H and te
,uropean +nion% Te meeting !as attended by te ,uropean &ommissioner for ,nlargement and
,uropean "eigbourood Policy3 Jtefan /Kle3 !o noted te strong solidarity among te attending
countries and te need for dialogue bet!een ,astern Partnersip members and te ,uropean +nion% Te
members discussed recent political de)elopments and specifically te impact of tese de)elopments on
energy security%
On the radar
On 1A &epteber2 "!Ps will debate and (ote on the !+*+kraine Association Agreeent2
establising a deep political association and free trade area%
The !uropean Parliaent president will pay an official (isit to Paris to eet the ?rench Prie
"inister "anuel ;alls on 1E September%
On 1> &epteber2 the !uropean Parliaent will debate Russia3s ban on iports of !+ food
products.
At least >@G of Air ?rance flights will be cancelled fro 1>*'' &epteber due to te strike by
te airline's pilots%
The !+ %igh Representati(e 1atherine Ashton will lead talks between the !6H6 -P>H1/ and
.ran on te 8ranian nuclear programme in "e! 7ork on 1? September%
*iddle ,ast
&yrian ary regains control of %alfaya fro al*#usra ?ront
Te Syrian national army regained control of te to!n of $alfaya from al."usra /ront on 12 September%
Te Syrian army also claims to a)e secured territory to!ards te pro)incial capital of $ama3 an area in
!ic al."usra a)e been concentrating teir efforts% Te Syrian Obser)atory for $uman rigts as
suggested al."usra figters !ere amassing in te pro)ince in preparation for attacks on neigbouring
&ristian and 1la!ate to!ns% Te latest go)ernment )ictory follo!ed te announcement of te +S
autorisation of airstrikes against te 8slamic State !itin Syria% 9o@ens of combatants from bot sides
a)e been killed in te latest offensi)es3 many of !om are belie)ed to be foreign figters%
Open Briefing | 8
Te gains are of strategic importance to te Syrian army as a central corridor bet!een 9amascus and te
!est coastL areas ome to large numbers of Syrian minorities and loyalist to!ns tat constitute 1ssad2s
po!er base in te region% *oreo)er3 as te counter.offensi)es seek to dri)e rebel groups east!ard3 te
operations are likely to force al."usra /ront into confrontation !it te 8slamic State% 1l."usra recently
!itdre! its figters from Syria2s east follo!ing a loss of territory and !eapons to te 8slamic State3 !ic
as recently )entured furter into Syrian territory from neigbouring 8ra#%
Te ne(t counter.offensi)es to be launced by te Syrian go)ernment are likely to concentrate on te
main ig!ay bet!een $ama and 1leppo3 trougout central Syria% Suc a strategy !ould likely seek to
dri)e rebel groups east!ard to!ards te 8ra#i and Turkis borders3 !it support from te international
community in te form of airstrikes against te 8slamic State% Te political ramifications of inter)ention for
te international community remain unclear3 as te Syrian "ational &oalition !elcomes te airstrikes yet
a)e called for greater assistance in deposing President Basar al.1ssad%
Other de(elopents
On 16 &epteber2 footage eerged of the beheading of British aid worker 4a(id %aines by the
.slaic &tate in .ra$. Te footage is yet to be )erifiedI o!e)er3 it is similar to pre)ious ostage
e(ecutions by te group% Te latest ig.profile murder !as in retaliation for te Britis go)ernment2s
support of coordinated airstrikes against te 8slamic State and for its support of =urdis Pasmerga forces
!itin 8ra#% Britis Prime *inister 9a)id &ameron addressed te killing in a press statement follo!ing an
emergency response committee eld on 14 September3 in !ic e )o!ed to do e)eryting in is po!er
to 4degrade and destroy MteN treat to te people of tis country3 te region3 and te !orld'%
Talks brokered by +& &ecretary of &tate Bohn )erry secured a Gulf coalition against the .slaic &tate
on 1@*11 &epteber. Te talks eld in Aedda3 Saudi 1rabia3 secured a communi#ue agreement bet!een
te <ulf &ooperation &ouncil and neigbouring ,gypt3 Aordan3 >ebanon and Turkey against te region2s
terrorist treat% Te talks follo!ed a resolution by te 1rab >eague to confront regional terrorism and
stand united against te 8slamic State% *embers a)e pledged to pro)ide umanitarian aid !itin te
region3 alongside military support and asset free@es on kno!n foreign figters% >ebanon2s $e@bolla as
been critical of te e(tent of >ebanon2s in)ol)ement3 fearing tat support against te 8slamic State may
a)e implications for Basar al.1ssad2s leadersip in Syria% 8ran as re;ected te idea of !orking !it an
international coalition against te 8slamic State%
On 8 &epteber2 presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah announced he would re9ect the outcoe
of the latest audit (ote in Afghanistan. 8t is !idely speculated tat is opponent3 1sraf <ani3 !ill
emerge as te )ictor of te elections eld in Aune% -esults are e(pected to be announced tis !eek% 0ile
unconfirmed3 attentions are no! being turned to te possibility of a national coalition go)ernment
bet!een te t!o leaders% /a@il $adi *ulimyar3 cairman of te 1fgan parliament2s +pper $ouse as
appealed to te candidates to end teir dispute% Te 0est !ill be keen to broker talks in te coming
!eeks3 !it bot te +nited "ations and "1TO paying particular attention to te domestic en)ironment
aead of te !itdra!al of troops later in te year%

Open Briefing | F
On the radar
.ranian nuclear talks to resue in #ew Iork on 1? September%
The ad9ourned trial of ousted !gyptian president "ohaed "orsi is set to take place on '@
&epteber.
Ieeni go(ernent e7pected to iinently announce a new prie inister in te ope of
calming te rebellion in te country%
Australia to deploy A@@ troops to the +A! in support of regional coalitions against the
.slaic &tate within .ra$.
Polar -egions
#ew sanctions against Russia haper 5estern oil copanies3 Arctic oil abitions ,((on*obil's oil
prospecting pro;ect in te 1rctic Ocean as been alted due to a ne! round of sanctions announced by
te +nited States and te ,uropean +nion% Te sanctions3 !ic proibit 0estern oil companies from
being in)ol)ed in -ussian oil e(ploration pro;ects3 !ill apply to all fields tat intend to become operational
in te ne(t 5.10 years% Te ne!s comes during te operation of a ;oint drilling pro;ect bet!een
,((on*obil and -ussian partner -osneft tat began tis summer at te +ni)ersity.1 !ell in te =ara Sea% 8t
is estimated tat te pro;ect as cost ,((on*obil DC00 million%
8n addition to direct financial loss3 a ma;or implication of te sanctions for ,((on*obil could include a
notable crippling of its future relationsip !it -ussian partners3 in particular -osneft% /urtermore3
,((on*obil's gro!t strategy !ill undoubtedly be greatly affected by te sanction announcements gi)en
te prominence of te =ara Sea pro;ect in te company's strategy to ac#uire ne! oil reser)es and replace
te production lost from e(isting aged fields and ostile ost go)ernments in countries suc as Fene@uela%
8n addition to ,((on*obil3 many oter oil companies are attempting to gain a footold in te 1rctic gi)en
its abundance of reco)erable natural oil and gas deposits% 0it -ussia situated at te eart of a significant
percentage of 1rctic e(ploration pro;ects3 increasing sanctions on -ussia in relation to ostilities in
+kraine are likely to drastically complicate entry in to te 1rctic region for many companies3 including
Statoil3 ,"8 and ,((on*obil%
Other de(elopents
1anada and the !uropean +nion ha(e announced a strategic partnership agreeent on security2
energy and the Arctic. 9uring a press conference in Otta!a on ? September3 &anadian /oreign *inister
Aon Baird and ,+ $ig -epresentati)e &aterine 1ston announced a strategic agreement outlining
sared )alues bet!een te ,uropean +nion and &anada% Baird and 1ston spoke of te need to combat
terrorism and promote uman rigts3 in addition to saring a common platform in relation to 1rctic
security and energy issues% Te agreement is te first of its kind bet!een te ,uropean +nion and a <C
country%
The Russian strategic nuclear subarine ;ladinir "onoakh has launched a Bula(a inter*
continental ballistic issile -.1B"/ fro an underwater location in the 5hite &ea2 successfully itting
its target on a =amcatka peninsula% Te trials signify te first time a Bula)a missile as been tested since
September 201:3 !en submarine 1le(andr "e)sky unsuccessfully launced a test missile3 resulting in a
alt on trials% Bula)a 8&B* trails a)e been a!as !it difficulties since tey began in 2004%
Open Briefing | 1@
&cientists fro the Antarctic 1liate and !cosystes 1ooperati(e Research 1entre in Australia ha(e
disco(ered a drastic increase in the aount of sea ice accuulating around the coastlines of
Antarctica. Te findings are some!at parado(ical3 gi)en te depleting ice #uantities on te 1ntarctic
continent itself% /urtermore3 sea ice in te 1rctic is decreasing% Te pre)ailing ypotesis is tat global
temperature canges a)e strengtened !inds in te 1ntarctic3 !ic play a ma;or role in te formation
of sea ice% Scientists a)e raised concerns o)er te findings stating tat rapid canges in sea ice le)els
could a)e implications for bot te ecosystem and te ability to conduct researc missions safely during
te seasonal free@e%
On the radar
The Arctic 1ouncil3s eergency pre(ention2 preparedness and response -!PPR/ conference is
to take place in Arkhangelsk2 Russia2 on 2:.25 September%
A conference on the legal issues associated with the de(elopents and use of energy
resources in the Arctic will be held in Troso2 #orway2 on 25.2G September%


Published with intelligence support from
Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www.bradburys.co.uk


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Analysts: &ris 1bbott3 9erek &rystal3 -oger *arsall3 TancrOde /euillade3 -obert Tasker3 &laudia 0agner3
>aura $artmann3 Sopie Taylor and *atte! &ouillard%