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United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
The Biofuels Market: Current Situationand Alternative Scenarios
This report provides a contribution to the Global Bioenergy Partnership (GBEP). It was produced with the support of the Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea.
United NationsGeneva and New York, 2009
 
The Biofuels Market: Current Situation and Alternative Scenarios
ii
Note
The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do notimply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.Symbols of the United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined withfigures. Mention of such a symbol indicates a reference to a United Nations document.Material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgement isrequested, together with a reference to the document number. A copy of the publicationcontaining the quotation or reprint should be sent to the UNCTAD secretariat at Palais des Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland.UNCTAD/DITC/BCC/2009/1Copyright © United Nations, 2009All rights reserved
 
The Biofuels Market: Current Situation and Alternative Scenarios
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Contents
 Page
Foreword........................................................................................................................... viiOverview.......................................................................................................................... ixI. The role and implications of biofuels blending targets.................................................... 1A. Blending and utilization targets................................................................................... 1B. The impact of mandatory blending targets.................................................................. 7C. Alternative scenarios for mandatory blending targets or utilization mandates........... 9D. Concluding remarks.................................................................................................... 13References........................................................................................................................ 14II. Greenhouse gas markets, carbon dioxide credits and biofuels......................................... 15A. GHG policies as a way to boost biofuel demand......................................................... 15B. Is biofuel carbon neutral? The importance of land-use change and deforestation...... 18C. Expanding the carbon market to enhance the sustainability of biofuels..................... 19D. Issues of sinks in policy discussions........................................................................... 21E. Concluding remarks.................................................................................................... 25References........................................................................................................................ 26III. Commercial viability of second generation biofuel technology....................................... 29A. Cost and energy yield estimates.................................................................................. 30B. Land area and potential for energy from biomass....................................................... 31C. Scenarios for climate policy........................................................................................ 33D. Bioenergy under a GHG mitigation scenario in the United States, with and withouttrade restrictions.......................................................................................................... 38E. Where will biomass production occur?....................................................................... 42F. Land-use implications................................................................................................. 44G. Long-term effects on agricultural prices and land rents.............................................. 46H. Concluding remarks.................................................................................................... 47References........................................................................................................................ 49IV. Trade opportunities for developing countries................................................................... 51A. Agriculture’s productive capacity: a result of natural endowments, technology andinfrastructure............................................................................................................... 51B. Developing countries will likely be the major bioenergy suppliers............................ 52C. Biofuels trade opportunities for developing countries: selected scenarios................. 53D. Assessment of the trade scenarios............................................................................... 54E. The potential value of biofuel imports........................................................................ 58F. Imports of feedstock instead of biodiesel.................................................................... 58G. Concluding remarks.................................................................................................... 60References........................................................................................................................ 62V. Advanced biofuels and developing countries: intellectual property scenarios and policy implications........................................................................................................... 63A. Trends in biofuels patenting........................................................................................ 64B. Trends in funding of biofuels research and development............................................ 67C. Biofuels intellectual property scenarios...................................................................... 69D. Developing countries’ capacity to participate in second generation biofuels............. 78E. Building an innovation system for biofuels................................................................. 80F. Concluding remarks.................................................................................................... 84References........................................................................................................................ 86
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