Szenkovics Dezs

The World After 2025 according to Brzezinskis Vision

Zbigniew Brzezinski: Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power
1
Besides Henry Kissinger and Samuel Huntington, the olish!born Zbigniew
Kazimierz Brzezinski has been one o" the most in"luential national security advisors and
geo#oliticians o" the residential $abinet in the %nited States o" &merica during the last
'( years)
However, his renown and authority are not s#eci"ically due to his advisory career,
but rather to his geo#olitical activity, which he revealed to the world at large mostly in his
volumes #ublished in *++,, The Grand Chessboard -translated into Hungarian in *+++.,
and in /(*/, Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power)
Strategic Vision a##eared in the edition o" the 0&ntall 12zse" Knowledge $entre3
and in the translation o" 4am5s 6agyarics, Hungary3s &mbassador to Dublin) Based on
#ast historical e7am#les as re"erences, in his book, Brzezinski analyses the current internal
and "oreign #olicy o" the %nited States o" &merica as well as the world #olitical events
and ha##enings, and takes a look into the "uture in an attem#t to #rovide us an overall
#icture o" the global world order a"ter /(/') 15nos 6artonyi, Hungary3s 6inister o"
8oreign &""airs writes in his "oreword to the book that Strategic Vision is a geo#olitical
scri#t in search o" an answer as to whether the unus inter pares -one among e9uals. or the
primus inter pares -the "irst among e9uals. #rinci#le will #revail in the new, emerging
world order)
4he #icture that un"olds right be"ore us throughout the some :(( #ages is not too
#romising; it does not e7actly #rovide grounds "or great <oy) =n his book, The Grand
Chessboard, the author #laced his con"idence in that the %S& and the >uro#ean %nion
will be able to counterbalance the changes in global #ower relations and the ?est losing
ground; Strategic Vision does not strike such an o#timistic note any more) 4he events that
*
Zbigniew Brzezinski: Stratgiai v!i": Ameri#a s a glob$lis hatalom v$ls$ga% &ntal 12zse" 4ud5sk@z#ont,
/(*:, Buda#est
took #lace during the *' years between the two #ublications suggest that the %nited States
o" &merica could not either hold on to or add to the immense bene"its that it came by in
world #olitics at the end o" the $old ?ar)
4he book contains an introduction, "our cha#ters and an e#ilogue) 4he central #art
is made u# o" the "our vast cha#ters, each looking "or #otential answers to a s#eci"ic issue
concerning changes in global #ower)
& brie" #resentation o" the 9uestions raised:
*). what are the #ossible outcomes o" the shi"t in em#hasis that takes #lace "rom ?est to
>ast at the level o" the global #owerA -art =: The &eceding 'est.
/). what sort o" e7ternal and internal regeneration does the %nited States o" &merica have
to undergo in order to kee# its global in"luence and its current status o" a su#er#owerA
-art ==: The 'aning of the American (ream.
:). what are the most #ossible geo#olitical outcomes should the %S& lose its dominant
status o" a global #owerA -art ===: The 'orld after America: )* +,+-% not Chinese but
Chaotic.
B). the role and res#onsibility o" &merica in develo#ing the ?est in its wider sense
-dee#ening the monetary and #olitical union o" the >% and develo#ing a ?est that would
include both Cussia and 4urkey. as well as the role o" the %S& in maintaining the eastern
balance; what Brzezinski has in mind is that the %S& should conduct such a constructive
&sia #olicy which is not e7clusively $hina!centred, but it also #ays regard to 1a#an as
&merica3s key &sian strategic #artner, while #aying due attention to =ndia, as well, the
other emerging regional su#er#ower o" the &sian continent -art =D: )e*ond +,+-. A /ew
Geopolitical )alance.)
?e must make it clear "rom the start that Brzezinski does not intend on 0burying3
the ?est E the ?est as such has not come to an end and it never will) =n turn, what
becomes more and more certain is the a##roaching end o" the uni#olar world system, the
status o" the %nited States o" &merica as a global #ower)
4he wavering o" the dominant #osition o" the ?est in global #olitics has been
in"luenced by several "actors in the last #eriod) =n the case o" the %S&, Brzezinski deems
im#ortant to highlight that the internal and "oreign #olicy #ursued by Feorge Bush senior,
Bill $linton and Feorge Bush <unior have signi"icantly contributed to the weakening status
o" the %S& as a su#er#ower)
=nternally, the %S& is struggling with economic and "inancial crisis, an increasing
#ublic debt, deteriorating economic in"rastructure etc), which have all very much "aded the
world!wide attractiveness o" the 0&merican dream,3 the country o" in"inite #ossibilities) =n
terms o" e7ternal #olitics, Brzezinski brings u# against the accountable leaders o" the %S&
that in the #eriod "ollowing the $old ?ar they ironically and sel"!assuredly #ro#agated
that the /*
st
century would be the century o" the %S&:
Bill $linton -1anuary /(, *++,.: 0&t this last #residential inauguration o" the /(
th
century, let us li"t our eyes towards the challenges that await us in the ne7t century) ) ) ) &t
the dawn o" the /*
st
century ) ) ) &merica stands alone as the world3s indis#ensable nation)3
Feorge ?) Bush sets an even more con"ident tone in his s#eech delivered on &ugust /G,
/(((, stating the "ollowing: 0Hur nation is chosen by Fod and commissioned by history to
be a model to the world)3 4hese and other similar statements were "ollowed by actions,
too: a"ter Se#tember **, /((*, Feorge ?) Bush declares war against terrorism -/((* E
attack on &"ghanistan and the overthrow o" the 4aliban government; /((: E attack on =ran
and settling the score with the regime led by Saddam Hussein.)
4he 6iddle!>astern #olitics o" the Feorge Bush #eriod were not basically
characterized by maintaining stability but rather by the li9uidation o" #olitical systems
su##orting terrorism) I4he %nited States o" &merica will not #ermit the worldIs most
dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world3s most destructive wea#ons)3 -=ran, =ra9
and Jorth Korea K the I>vil &7isI.)
=n addition to all o" this, we also have to reckon with the "act that $hina has
demonstrated a s#ectacular #ath o" develo#ment over the #ast *'!/( years -by now, we
can #lace it second only to the %nited States in terms o" economic develo#ment., Cussia,
due to its vast oil and natural gas reserves and geo#olitical situation, remains a relevant
and unavoidable geo#olitical "actor in the "uture too while =ndia has develo#ed into a
regional su#er#ower over the #ast decades, which nurtures ambitions o" becoming a global
su#er#ower even though its dis#utes with $hina and akistan are a weakening "actor)
&ll these suggest that the uni#olar concentration o" the "ormer global #ower is
scattered on "our continents) 4here"ore, should the %S& not be able to regenerate, to carry
out internal re"orms and lay its e7ternal a""airs on new "oundations, that is to say, its status
o" a global #ower becomes even weaker, then it may lead to the a##earance o" several
regional con"licts, which will not yield great victors, but more and more losers will
emerge) =n case this scri#t will #revail, the /*
st
century will not be that o" $hina) I4he
world a"ter &mericaI will not be dominated by $hina but rather by chaos mostly based on
the com#etition and #otential con"licts among the regional #owers o" &sia: $hina, =ndia
and 1a#an)
=n order to avoid this, the author comes u# with a new kind o" #ossible balance o"
global su#er#owers "or the "uture, where the %S& will #lay a double role) IHn the one #art,
it will be the driving "orce and the guarantor o" the greater and larger unit in the ?est
while, on the other #art, it has to create a balance and be the #eacemaker among the great
#owers in the >ast)I 4he author immediately adds that these two roles will have to be
simultaneously #resent in the &merican "oreign #olicy; otherwise success will not "ollow)
=n the ?est, the %S& will be given a signi"icant role in terms o" commitment towards the
J&4H, in #romoting the calculated and ste#!by!ste# western integration o" 4urkey and the
increasingly democratizing Cussia, as well as in dee#ening the >% monetary and #olitical
integration)
4he challenge in the >ast does not get any sim#ler either, which the %S& will have
to meet) Hn the one hand, it will have to avoid military interventions in the "uture, which
can only be ado#ted in case the threat and aggressiveness is aimed at countries where
&merican military "orces have already been stationed under contract as #art o" a long!
standing international situation, that is the %S& has signed a commitment -the case o"
$hina and South Korea.) 4he %S& has to acknowledge that #eace and stability in &sia are
not sustainable i" associated with &merican military #resence and its direct em#loyment)
4he %S&Is #artici#ation in &sia will have to take #lace through making use o" di#lomatic
and economic instruments and encouraging the key actorsI low!#ro"ile attitude, thus
contributing to the maintenance o" a regional #ower balance) =nstead o" intimidation,
terrorization and military #resence, #eacemaking and di#lomacy will have to "orm the
credo o" the /*
st
century &mericaIs e7ternal #olicy)
&s a "inal conclusion, we can state that in the age o" nations and #eo#les
awakening and taking #olitical initiatives in the wake o" modern communication
technologies, where we can witness the restructuring and di""usion o" the uni#olar global
#ower, the %S& bears an enormous res#onsibility: a %S& that is unable to control and
manage the world, but one that is still #resent as an economic, military and cultural
su#er#ower will have to go under a #rocess o" regeneration both in terms o" its internal
and e7ternal #olitics) &t least, this is what Brzezinski considers the only secure guarantee
o" the /*
st
centuryIs new world order) 4he only 9uestion le"t to be answered is whether the
diagnosis #ro#osed by the great doyen o" the &merican security #olicy and geo#olitics is a
correct one and whether the cure #lan #rescribed "or the treatment o" the new world
#olitical situation that has taken sha#e over the #ast decades will be com#lied with, as well
as whether it will yield the e7#ected outcomes, or the /*
st
century will be the century o"
the chaos)