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14.12.09 16:30No united army for us, rebels vowSeite 1 von 6http://www.shanland.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=articl…2849:-no-united-army-for-us-rebels-vow&catid=mailbox&Itemid=279
Khuensai JaiyenColonel Lum DauHome Mailbox MailboxNo united army for us, rebels vow
 No united army for us, rebels vow
Large-scale fighting beckons as ceasefire groups defy a Rangoon order to give up their military wingsThe Burmese junta has set an end-of-year deadline for 12 ceasefire armies to come under the controlof a new military body, but at the moment there is mainly defiance and real fears of a conflict with thebiggest military group - the United Wa State Army (UWSA).As the deadline draws closer,Spectr um spoke to key figures in thenegotiations to form the new Border Guard Force (BGF) and militiaand learned that six ceasefire groups are in favour of joining, andsix are opposed to it.The New Democratic Army-Kachin (NDA-K), the Kayan NationalGuard (KNG), the Karenni Nationalities People Liberation Front(KNPLF), the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), the KachinDefence Army (KDA) and the Pa-O National Army (PNA) supportthe idea. The Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), the KayanNew Land Party (KNLP), the New Mon State Party (NMSP), theUnited Wa State Army (UWSA), Shan State Army-North (SSA-N)and National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) oppose it.Burma experts expressed concern that if Burma's ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC)cannot get the Wa Army to comply soon, there is a real chance of armed conflict in the norther n andsouthern Wa areas bordering China and Thailand. If this happens, other ceasefire groups, like the KIO,NDAA or NMSP, might join the conflict.Anti-government groups like the Shan State Army-South, whichhave not signed a ceasefire, might also get involved. Any armedconflict involving the UWSA, which is the second largest army after he Burmese military, would have far-reaching securityconsequences for the whole Southeast Asian region, especiallyChina and Thailand.The UWSA has 28,000 soldiers, and can also count on the supportof 8,000 security personnel including police, security guards andheir own militia."Among other problems, it would cause an influx of refugees and anincrease in drug smuggling, which would affect the relationshipbetween Burma and Thailand," said Khuensai Jaiyen, editor-in-chief of the Shan Herald Agency for News.An example of what might come is illustrated in the attack by SPDC forces on the Kokang group, theMyanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), last August. The group refused to join the BGF,likening it to surrender.During the fighting, nearly 40,000 people fled to neighbouringChina. In response, the Chinese Foreign Ministry urged theBurmese government to handle its internal affairs properly, while itworked behind the scenes to help solve the problem. Stability along 
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SUNDAY, 13 DECEMBER 2009 00:00 BANGKOK POST
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