Joseph Petrich

Mr. McGill
Political Science Honors, p 5
4 December 2009

Al Qaida will try to provoke India-Pakistan war: Gates

This article, by Anwar Iqbal on the Dawn Media Group’s website, outlines Secretary of
Defense Robert Gate’s beliefs that Al Qaida will attempt to create war between India and
Pakistan. Such a war would greatly benefit the terrorist organization, as it would destabilize the
Pakistani government, possibly granting terrorists access to nuclear weapons. According to
Gates, Al Qaida has been supporting the group responsible for the terrorist attacks in Mumbai,
by providing key information, with the goal of provoking India to declare war on Pakistan. In
addition, he declared that nearly all terrorist activity in the Middle East can be traced to the
Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The comments made by Secretary Gates are likely to annoy the
Indian government, as they do not want to be pulled into US operations in Afghanistan to
stabilize the region.
With the announcements by President Obama that the US will send thousands more
troops to Afghanistan in an attempt to stabilize the government, the declaration that Al Qaida and
Pakistan are causing most of the trouble is a little odd. Of course, Pakistan would not welcome a
US occupation, and that option is not feasible, but Secretary Gates’ words do not seem to support
the Afghanistan troop surge. If he is correct, stabilizing the Afghan government will have little
effect on eliminating terrorism, because the Taliban is much less scary than Al Qaida, which
could just hide in Pakistan while we occupy Afghanistan. Of course, President Obama must
have had this knowledge when making his decision, but Gates’ words seem to cast a shadow of
doubt on his wisdom.
Secretary Gates is spot on in his assessment of the situation in the Middle East. Pakistan
and India have always been at the heart of troubles, but they are too dangerous politically for the
United States to meddle with. However, I do not believe that Al Qaida can provoke war between
the two nations. War will either come naturally between India and Pakistan, or the status quo of
uneasiness will prevail over the long-term. India might be annoyed by Pakistan’s harboring of
terrorists, but neither nation would greatly benefit from war, so they should be able to resolve
most issues through diplomacy. With regards to President Obama’s decision to send troops to
Afghanistan, I believe that it may be the right move, but announcing the end-date was
unintelligent. The Taliban or any other terrorists could easily go into hiding for eighteen months,
build up strength, and return as soon as US forces exit, leaving our nation, and our President,
looking silly.