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STELLA Modeling of a Zombie Invasion

STELLA Modeling of a Zombie Invasion

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Published by jarettd
A dynamic systems model of a zombie invasion using isee Systems STELLA software.
A dynamic systems model of a zombie invasion using isee Systems STELLA software.

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Published by: jarettd on Dec 15, 2009
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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11/01/2010

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original

 
 
Jarett
 
Diamond
 
NRE
 
509
 
Lab
 
#5
 
 –STELLA
 
Modeling
 
of 
 
a
 
Zombie
 
Invasion
 
Background
 
The
 
Zombie
 
Invasion
 
scenario
 
has
 
been
 
a
 
common
 
trope
 
in
 
American
 
popular
 
culture
 
for
 
decades.
 
In
 
one
 
version,
 
the
 
outbreak
 
begins
 
with
 
a
 
mutant
 
virus
 
introduced
 
to
 
a
 
small
 
population
 
of 
 
humans.
 
The
 
virus
 
kills
 
those
 
whom
 
it
 
infects,
 
and
 
after
 
a
 
period
 
of 
 
time,
 
causes
 
them
 
to
 
rise
 
from
 
the
 
dead
 
with
 
an
 
insatiable
 
hunger
 
for
 
human
 
flesh.
 
Decaying
 
mockeries
 
of 
 
human
 
life,
 
these
 
walking
 
undead
 
are
 
insensible
 
to
 
cold,
 
heat,
 
fatigue,
 
or
 
fear.
 
Mindless,
 
they
 
possess
 
only
 
the
 
most
 
basic
 
instinct
 
to
 
feed
 
upon
 
the
 
living.
 
The
 
infection
 
spreads
 
by
 
fluid
 
contact,
 
typically
 
a
 
bite.
 
An
 
infected
 
human
 
who
 
manages
 
to
 
escape
 
being
 
consumed
 
entirely
 
will
 
shortly,
 
die,
 
only
 
to
 
rise
 
again
 
as
 
a
 
fully
 
contagious
 
member
 
of 
 
the
 
walking
 
dead.
 
The
 
most
 
often
cited
 
way
 
to
 
kill
 
a
 
zombie
 
for
 
good
 
is
 
to
 
destroy
 
its
 
brain.
 
The
 
Zombie
 
Invasion
 
scenario
 
is
 
often
 
used
 
as
 
a
 
vehicle
 
for
 
critique
 
of 
 
modern
 
man’s
 
utter
 
unpreparedness
 
for
 
survival
 
in
 
the
 
event
 
of 
 
the
 
collapse
 
of 
 
social
 
order.
 
In
 
books
 
and
 
films,
 
the
 
highest
 
occupants
 
of 
 
the
 
modern
 
socioeconomic
 
ladder,
 
whose
 
position
 
is
 
wholly
 
dependent
 
on
 
modern
 
economic
 
and
 
technological
 
infrastructure,
 
are
 
typically
 
the
 
least
 
equipped
 
for
 
survival
 
in
 
a
 
post
apocalyptic
 
world.
 
Mnual
 
laborers,
 
farmers,
 
survivalists,
 
and
 
others
 
whose
 
accumulated
 
life
 
skills
 
are
 
less
 
dependent
 
on
 
functioning
 
modern
 
infrastructure—as
 
might
 
be
 
the
 
case
 
with,
 
say,
 
a
 
hedge
 
fund
 
manager—are
 
the
 
most
 
likely
 
to
 
survive
 
and
 
promote
 
the
 
survival
 
of 
 
others.
 
The
 
collapse
 
of 
 
social
 
order,
 
followed
 
by
 
the
 
outright
 
reversal
 
of 
 
its
 
smoldering
 
remains,
 
is
 
part
 
and
 
parcel
 
of 
 
the
 
horror
 
of 
 
the
 
zombie
 
apocalypse.
 
Past
 
Work
 
In
 
their
 
seminal
 
work
 
on
 
mathematical
 
modeling
 
of 
 
a
 
zombie
 
scenario,
 
Professor
 
R.J.
 
Smith?
 
(the
 
?
 
is
 
part
 
of 
 
his
 
legal
 
name)
 
and
 
his
 
team
 
applied
 
a
 
modified
 
epidemiological
 
model
 
to
 
the
 
problem.
 
i
 
However,
 
I
 
observe
 
a
 
small
 
deficiency
 
in
 
the
 
model.
 
In
 
the
 
most
 
basic
 
form,
 
there
 
are
 
three
 
stocks.
 
S
 
 –
 
susceptible
 
humans
 
Z
 
 –
 
zombies
 
R
 
 –
 
removed
 
Figure
 
1.
 
Modified
 
epidemiological
 
model
 
for
 
zombie
 
invasion
 
The
 
term
 
S
 
represents
 
the
 
death
 
of 
 
humans
 
by
 
natural
 
causes.
 
However,
 
the
 
model
 
clearly
 
shows
 
that
 
all 
 
humans
 
that
 
die
 
from
 
natural
 
causes
 
are
 
directed
 
to
 
a
 
common
 
pool
 
of 
 
corpses
 
(R)
 
from
 
which
 
zombies
 
may
 
resurrect.
 
Humans
 
which
 
die
 
of 
 
natural
 
causes
 
are
 
not
 
expected
 
to
 
rise
 
from
 
the
 
dead.
 
This
 
oversight
 
appears
 
to
 
persist
 
in
 
more
 
sophisticated
 
models
 
presented
 
in
 
the
 
paper.
 
 
 
Jarett
 
Diamond
 
A
 
careful
 
observer
 
might
 
also
 
note
 
that
 
there
 
is
 
no
 
allowance
 
for
 
zombie
 
destruction
 
in
 
this
 
model.
 
However,
 
in
 
a
 
later
 
section
 
of 
 
the
 
paper,
 
Smith?,
 
et 
 
al 
 
implement
 
an
 
“impulsive
 
eradication”
 
mechanism,
 
in
 
which
 
the
 
humans
 
would
 
attempt
 
to
 
control
 
the
 
zombie
 
population
 
by
 
“strategically
 
destroying
 
them
 
at
 
such
 
times
 
that...
 
resources
 
permit.”
 
Overview
 
of 
 
STELLA
 
Model
 
In
 
my
 
STELLA
 
model,
 
I
 
attempted
 
to
 
expand
 
on
 
the
 
past
 
work
 
by
 
Munz,
 
Hudea,
 
Imad,
 
and
 
Smith
 
by
 
incorporating
 
the
 
following
 
elements:
 
 
A
 
hybrid
 
Lotka
Volterra/epidemiological
 
model
 
to
 
simulate
 
a
 
multistage
 
disease
 
spread
 
by
 
predation,
 
with
 
a
 
1:1
 
efficiency
 
of 
 
conversion
 
of 
 
prey
 
to
 
‘infected
 
prey’
 
 
A
 
persistent,
 
rather
 
than
 
impulsive,
 
zombie
 
eradication
 
mechanism
 
which
 
more
 
closely
 
resembles
 
prey
 
defense
 
systems
 
in
 
the
 
natural
 
world
 
 
A
 
‘panic
 
factor’
 
coupled
 
to
 
the
 
ratio
 
of 
 
infection
 
vs.
 
zombie
 
elimination
 
rate,
 
plus
 
the
 
zombie
 
feed
 
rate
 
which
 
gives
 
a
 
rough
 
approximate
 
value
 
for
 
the
 
general
 
feel
 
of 
 
which
 
side
 
is
 
winning.
 
The
 
panic
 
factor
 
causes
 
indirect
 
human
 
casualties
 
(i.e.
 
not
 
directly
 
caused
 
by
 
zombie
 
infection
 
or
 
consumption).
 
 
A
 
‘learning
 
curve’
 
which
 
simulates
 
adaptive
 
human
 
behavioral
 
changes
 
over
 
time
 
 
A
 
‘zombie
 
feed
 
rate’
 
term
 
which
 
simulates
 
destruction,
 
but
 
not
 
infection
 
and
 
conversion,
 
of 
 
living
 
humans.
 
The
 
STELLA
 
model
 
omits
 
human
 
birth
 
rate,
 
and
 
death
 
by
 
natural
 
causes.
 
For
 
small
 
populations
 
(under
 
10,000)
 
and
 
short
 
modeling
 
times,
 
these
 
factors
 
were
 
felt
 
to
 
be
 
of 
 
negligible
 
consequence.
 
Detailed
 
Description
 
of 
 
STELLA
 
Model
 
In
 
my
 
STELLA
 
model,
 
there
 
are
 
four
 
stocks:
 
S
 
 –
 
susceptible
 
humans
 
I
 
 –
 
infected
 
humans
 
Z
 
 –
 
zombies
 
X
 
 –
 
removed
 
and
 
two
 
conveyors:
 
IFREE–
 
“free
 
infected”
 
infected
 
humans
 
not
 
quarantined
 
 
 –
 
quarantined
 
humans
 
A
 
conveyor
 
is
 
similar
 
to
 
a
 
stock,
 
but
 
the
 
primary
 
output
 
is
 
controlled
 
by
 
a
 
transit
time
 
factor.
 
A
 
susceptible
 
human
 
(S)
 
may
 
be
 
infected
 
at
 
a
 
given
 
rate
 
proportional
 
to
 
the
 
number
 
of 
 
humans
 
and
 
the
 
number
 
of 
 
active
 
zombies
 
(Z).
 
Alternatively,
 
a
 
susceptible
 
human
 
may
 
die
 
(via
 
s
 
elim
 
rate)
 
from
 
1)
 
the
 
mass
 
panic
 
caused
 
by
 
the
 
zombie
 
invasion
 
or
 
2)
 
be
 
wholly
 
consumed
 
by
 
a
 
zombie.
 
The
 
zombie
 
feed
 
rate
 
is
 
proportional
 
to
 
the
 
number
 
of 
 
zombies.
 
The
 
panic
 
factor
 
was
 
described
 
previously.
 
A
 
susceptible
 
human
 
unlucky
 
enough
 
to
 
be
 
infected
 
moves
 
to
 
the
 
infected
 
stock
 
(I).
 
At
 
this
 
stage,
 
the
 
infected
 
human
 
may
 
be
 
detected.
 
If 
 
the
 
infected
 
human
 
is
 
detected,
 
he
 
may
 
be
 
sent
 
 
 
Jarett
 
Diamond
 
to
 
the
 
quarantine
 
conveyor
 
(Q),
 
in
 
futile
 
hopes
 
that
 
a
 
cure
 
may
 
be
 
found.
 
Since
 
no
 
cure
 
is
 
possible,
 
all
 
infected
 
humans
 
are
 
removed
 
(X)
 
after
 
the
 
latency
 
period
 
of 
 
the
 
disease
 
expires.
 
However,
 
there
 
is
 
also
 
a
 
leakage
 
rate
 
(quar
 
escape
 
rate)
 
of 
 
infected
 
humans
 
who
 
escape
 
quarantine,
 
and
 
 join
 
the
 
free
 
infected
 
conveyor.
 
The
 
model
 
assumes
 
that
 
successful
 
escapes
 
are
 
made
 
immediately
 
upon
 
arrival
 
in
 
quarantine
 
(i.e.
 
at
 
the
 
onset
 
of 
 
the
 
disease
 
latency
 
period,
 
which
 
begins
 
again
 
in
 
the
 
IFREE
 
conveyor).
 
In
 
time,
 
the
 
humans
 
realize
 
the
 
futility
 
of 
 
the
 
quarantine
 
strategy.
 
This
 
is
 
simulated
 
by
 
the
 
learning
 
curve
 
factor,
 
which
 
causes
 
the
 
proportion
 
of 
 
infected
 
humans
 
sent
 
to
 
the
 
free
 
infected
 
conveyor
 
to
 
increase
 
over
 
time.
 
This
 
leaves
 
two
 
categories
 
of 
 
infected
 
humans.
 
1)
 
non
quarantined
 
infected
 
humans
 
2)
 
undetected
 
infected
 
humans
 
Both
 
groups
 
proceed
 
directly
 
from
 
the
 
infected
 
stock
 
(I)
 
to
 
the
 
free
 
infected
 
(IFREE)
 
conveyor.
 
Thus,
 
the
 
IFREE
 
conveyor
 
consists
 
of 
 
these
 
two
 
populations,
 
plus
 
the
 
population
 
of 
 
escaped
 
infected
 
quarantined
 
humans.
 
Unless
 
they
 
are
 
destroyed
 
first,
 
the
 
disease
 
latency
 
period
 
expires
 
and
 
members
 
of 
 
the
 
IFREE
 
conveyor
 
resurrect
 
as
 
zombies.
 
The
 
leakage
 
rate
 
from
 
IFREE
 
represents
 
the
 
active
 
detection
 
and
 
elimination
 
of 
 
the
 
IFREE
 
population.
 
Resurrected
 
zombies
 
are
 
capable
 
of 
 
creating
 
more
 
zombies
 
by
 
infecting
 
humans,
 
or
 
destroying
 
humans
 
outright
 
by
 
feeding
 
on
 
them.
 
The
 
zombie
 
feed
 
rate
 
is
 
also
 
an
 
important
 
term
 
in
 
the
 
panic
 
factor
 
equation,
 
which
 
results
 
in
 
indirect
 
human
 
casualties.
 
The
 
zombie
 
population
 
is
 
controlled
 
by
 
active
 
retaliation
 
by
 
humans
 
(z
 
elim
 
rate),
 
which
 
is
 
proportional
 
to
 
the
 
product
 
of 
 
the
 
number
 
of 
 
humans,
 
the
 
number
 
of 
 
zombies,
 
and
 
a
 
variable
 
zombie
 
kill
 
factor.
 
The
 
zombie
 
kill
 
factor
 
increases
 
over
 
time
 
with
 
the
 
learning
 
curve,
 
as
 
humans
 
learn
 
better
 
methods
 
for
 
controlling
 
the
 
undead.
 

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