Vietnams East Sea Strategy and

China-Vietnam Relations
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Paper delivered to the
2
nd
International Conference on Chinas Maritime Strategy
co-sponsored by the Institute of Global and Public Affairs
and the Shanghai Maritime Strategy Research Center
The University of Macau
September 19-20, 2014
Outline
Introduction
Foreign Policy Context
Historical Legacy
Defence Strategy
Maritime Strategy to 2020
Implications for China-Vietnam Relations
Introduction
Vietnams current East Sea (South China Sea)
strategy in context
Historical
Foreign policy
Defence
Oilrig crisis led to erosion of strategic trust by
Vietnamese leaders and public at large
Foreign Policy Context
Politburo Resolution No. 32 (1986)
Peaceful coexistence with China
Politburo Resolution No. 2 (1987)
Strategic readjustment
Politburo Resolution No. 13 (May 1988)
Multidirectional foreign policy
Priority to economic development
National interest mentioned for first time
Politburo Resolution No. 13
June 1991 7
th
National Party Congress
Diversify and multilateralize economic relations
with all countries regardless of differences in
socio-political systems
Normalization with China (1991)
1995 Pivotal Year
Normalization with the U.S., EU
Member of ASEAN
Foreign Policy Context
2001 9
th
National Party Congress
friend and reliable partner to all nations
Priority to socialist, neighbouring and traditional
friendly states
Strategic partnerships
Central Committee Resolution No. 8 (2003)
Cooperation (doi tac) and struggle (doi tuong)
ASEAN + , APEC, WTO, UN Security Council
Vietnam-China Relations
March 1999 CCP-VCP Summit
Long-term, stable, future-orientated, good-
neighbourly and all round cooperative relations
Land border and Gulf of Tonkin agreements
Joint Steering Committee (2006)
Strategic Partnership (2008)
Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative
Partnership (2009)
Historical Legacy
Pre-colonial
Nguyen Lords
17
th
-18
th
Centuries Hoang Sa Brigade
Nguyen Dynasty
Colonial Era
1884 Treaty with France
Two-Vietnams (1954-76)
Republic of Vietnam
Key Turning Points
China Seizes western Paracels (January 1974)
China-Vietnam naval clash (March 1988)
Chinas Law on Territorial Sea and Contiguous
Zone and Contract to Crestone Energy
Corporation (February and May 1992)
Wenan Bei 21 (Vanguard Bank)
Mischief Reef (late 1994/1995)
Defence Strategy
Peoples War and All Peoples National
Defence
Threats: border with China, Spratly islands
Peaceful Evolution
Defence zones (off-shore islands, oil and gas)
Preventing armed conflict = maximum self-
restraint
China: Friend or Foe (June 1992)?
Force Modernization
Priority on modernization of the navy (1995)
Arms contracts with Russia
Tarantul 2-type corvettes, ASM
2
nd
Phase Force Modernization (2003-04)
Sukhoi Su-30 MK multirole fighters
Molniya-class corvettes
Gepard-class stealth guided missile frigates
Svetlyak-class fast attack craft ASM
Maritime Strategy to 2020
First comprehensive and integrated maritime
strategy (2007)
Integration of coastal area with maritime
zones and islands in the East Sea
By 2020 55% GDP and 60% exports
Chinese pressure on foreign oil companies
Chinas unilateral fishing ban
Cable cutting incidents (2011)
Cooperation & Struggle with China
Prevent territorial disputes from spilling over
and affecting bilateral relations
Joint Steering Committee
Dense bilateral relations
Agreement of Basic Principles Guiding the
Settlement of Maritime-Related Issues
(October 2011)
Struggle diplomatic protests
Cooperation & Struggle with China
Defence Diplomacy
Hedging against China with the U.S., Japan and
India
Cooperation with China
Naval port visits and joint patrols in Tonkin Gulf
Strategic Defence and Security Dialogue
High-level visits
National Defence Industry
Self-help and co-production
Cooperation & Struggle with China
Defence Modernization
One of 5 key priorities (2011-2015)
Disputes over maritime sovereignty a key driver
Counter-Intervention Strategy
Acquisition of six Varshavyanka (enhanced Kilo)-
class conventional submarines
Acquisition of Dutch Sigma-class frigates
Armed with anti-ship cruise missiles
Counter-Intervention Strategy
Modernization , doctrine and tactics years off
best weapons diplomacy and international law
Zachary Abuza
Most promising strategy sufficient forces for
deterrence and pursuit of diplomacy
Lyle Goldstein
Asymmetrical strategy using location
combined with alliances
Gary Li
Counter-Intervention Strategy
Potential to strike devastating blows, deploy
submarines to Hainan
Brian Benedictus
Five weapons China should fear Sukhoi
fighters, Kilo-submarines, P-800 Onyx Cruise
Missile, S-300 SAM and Space (location)
Vietnam has bite, deterrence, improving
Robert Farley
China-Vietnam Relations
Contrast Premier Li Keqiangs visit to Hanoi in
October 2013 with Oilrig crisis May-July 2014
Loss of Strategic Trust
Visit by State Councilor Yang Jiechi to Hanoi
June 18, 2014 Joint Steering Committee
Visit by VCP Secretary Generals Special Envoy,
Le Hong Anh, to Beijing in August
Implications for Bilateral Relations
Widespread anti-China feeling among elite
and public - loss of strategic trust
Calls to thoat Trung (exit Chinas orbit)
Vietnam will continue to stand up to China
(struggle)
Legal action will be held in reserve
Multilateralization = improve relations with
the U.S., Japan and India
Implications for Bilateral Relations
Vietnam will continue to pursue diplomacy
through ASEAN
ARF, ADMM Plus , Expanded ASEAN Maritime
Forum and East Asia Summit
Support for early conclusion of binding Code of
Conduct in the South China Sea
Vietnam will continue to engage (cooperate)
with China
Vietnams East Sea Strategy and
China-Vietnam Relations
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Email: c.thayer@adfa.edu.au