ძალთა წონასწორობა თუ საფრთხის წინასწორობა

ZalTa wonasworoba
Tu safrTxis
wonasworoba?
giorgi
gvalia
Tbilisi
2008
bTkk-s saerTaSoriso politikis
kvlevebis seria
aliansebi samxreT kavkasiaSi
wigni gamoica evraziis TanamSromlobis fondis dafinansebiT
(granti 08-0004) SvedeTis saerTaSoriso ganviTarebis
saagentos saxsrebis meSveobiT. wignSi gamoTqmuli
mosazrebebi SeiZleba ar emTxveodes SvedeTis saerTaSoriso
ganviTarebis saagentosa da evraziis TanamSromlobis fondis
Sexedulebebs.
2008 bTkk - politikis kvlevis jgufi
ISBN 978-9941-0-0625-8 (yvela wignis)
ISBN 978-9941-0-0626-5 (meoTxe wignis)
ISSN 1512-4118
saerTaSoriso politikis
kvlevebis proeqtis
direqtori:
proeqtis koordinatori:
recenzenti:
kompiuteruli dizaini:
bTkk-s saerTaSoriso
politikis kvlevebis seriis
saredaqcio sabWo:
mamuka komaxia
revaz baxtaZe
sergi kapanaZe
vaxtang elerdaSvili
mamuka komaxia,
revaz baxtaZe,
Tornike TurmaniZe,
gela kvaSilava
winasityvaoba
`bTkk - politikis kvlevis jgufi~ `saerTaSoriso
politikis kvlevebis~ proeqtis farglebSi agrZelebs bTkk-
s saerTaSoriso politikis kvlevebis seriis gamoqveynebas,
romelic axalgazrda qarTvel mecnierTa naSromebs aer-
Tianebs da saqarTveloSi politikuri mecnierebebis ganvi-
TarebisaTvis xelis Sewyobas isaxavs miznad. seriis meoTxe
wignia `ZalTa wonasworoba Tu safrTxis wonasworoba?
aliansebi samxreT kavkasiaSi,~ _ avtori giorgi gvalia.
vimedovnebT, rom bTkk-s saerTaSoriso politikis kv-
levebis seriis meoTxe wigni saintereso informacias miawv-
dis mkiTxvels samxreT kavkasiis qveynebis sagareo politika-
ze da masSi warmodgenili analizi gamosadegi iqneba, rogorc
mecnierebisa da studentebisaTvis, ise politikuri gadaw-
yvetilebis mimRebi pirebisaTvis saqarTveloSi.
saerTaSoriso politikis kvlevebis seriis pirveli sami
wigni: Tornike TurmaniZis `buferuli saxelmwifoebi~, erek-
le uruSaZis `rusuli sagareo politikuri azrovneba post-
sabWoTa periodSi~ da revaz baxtaZis `gadawyvetilebis miRe-
4
ba sust saxelmwifoSi~ 2006-2007 wlebSi gamoqveynda.
`bTkk - politikis kvlevis jgufi~ gansakuTrebul mad-
lobas uxdis èvraziis TanamSromlobis fondsa~ da SvedeTis
saerTaSoriso ganviTarebis saagentos `saerTaSoriso poli-
tikis kvlevebis~ proeqtis ganxorcielebis mxardaWeri-
saTvis.
bTkk - politikis kvlevis jgufi
2008 weli
winasityvaoba
winaTqma
samxreT kavkasiis regionze kvlevis Catarebis idea jer
kidev magistraturaSi swavlis dros damebada. Tumca
Tavidanve gamokveTili pozicia ar gamaCnda, Tu samxreT
kavkasiis saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis romeli aspeqti Se-
meswavla. mas Semdeg, rac gavecani saerTaSoriso urTierTo-
bebis ori gavleniani Teoriis, ZalTa wonasworobisa da sa-
frTxis wonasworobis Teoriebis mTavar varaudebs, mivxvdi,
rom sakmaod saintereso da amavdroulad produqtiuli iqne-
boda, Tu am ori Teoriis daSvebebs samxreT kavkasiaSi mim-
dinare procesebis Seswavlis da analizis safuZvelze gada-
vamowmebdi.
am ideis ase swrafad xorcSesxma ver moxerxdeboda bTkk -
politikis kvlevis jgufis mxardaWeris gareSe, risTvisac
did madlobas vuxdi jgufis wevrebs, gansakuTrebiT ki mamu-
ka komaxias, romelmac naSromis dawera SemomTavaza. aseve
didi madloba minda vuTxra yvela im adamians, vinc aRniSnu-
li kvlevis saboloo versia gadaikiTxa da araerTi sagulisx-
6
mo rCeva momca. maT Soris, ilia WavWavaZis saxelmwifo uni-
versitetis profesors daviT afrasiZes, amave universite-
tis asistent profesors arCil abaSiZes, Tbilisis saxelm-
wifo universitetis asistent profesors sergi kapanaZes da
demokratiis axalgazrduli centris Tavmjdomares zura iaS-
vils. agreTve, saqarTvelos usafrTxoebis analizis centris
direqtors devid smits, romelmac zogadi xasiaTis miTiTe-
bebi momca naSromze muSaobis procesSi.
giorgi gvalia
ilia WavWavaZis saxelmwifo universitetis
asistent profesori
2008 wlis ivlisi
winaTqma
s a r C e v i
Sesavali. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9
Tavi pirveli.
ZiriTadi Teoriuli daSvebebi da definiciebi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12
Tavi meore.
ZalTa wonasworoba Tu safrTxis wonasworoba? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
Tavi mesame.
winaswari Teoriuli varaudebi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25
Tavi meoTxe.
saqarTvelo. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29
Tavi mexuTe.
azerbaijani. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45
Tavi meeqvse.
somxeTi. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60
daskvna. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73
danarTi. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .76
gamoyenebuli literatura. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77
Sesavali
ra ganapirobebs kavSirebis formirebas? romel faqtorebs
iReben saxelmwifoebi mxedvelobaSi, rodesac arCeven mokav-
Sireebs? kavSirebis warmoqmnis romeli gzaa ufro xSiri: dabal-
anseba Tu mitmasneba? es arasruli CamonaTvalia im kiTxvebis,
romelTa garSemo araerTi diskusia Tu samecniero debatebi gam-
arTula da dResac imarTeba saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis samec-
niero disciplinis farglebSi.
naSromis mizania samxreT kavkasiis regionis Seswavlis safuZ-
velze sakuTari mokrZalebuli wvlili Seitanos am debatebSi.
Tumca es mizani or nawilad SegviZlia davyoT. pirveli, Teoriu-
li, xolo meore, empiriuli.
kvlevis Teoriuli mizania gadaamowmos ori Teoriis varaude-
bi samxreT kavkasiis regionis Seswavlis safuZvelze. kerZod, ganx-
iluli iqneba saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis ori gavleniani Teo-
ria: ZalTa wonasworobis da safrTxis wonasworobis Teoriebi.
maTi ZiriTadi daSvebebis gadamowmebis safuZvelze ki dadginde-
ba, Tu romeli Teoria xsnis ukeTesad samxreT kavkasiis regionSi
mimdinare procesebs regionis saxelmwifoebis mier damoukide-
blobis aRdgenidan moyolebuli dRemde.
mizezi imisa Tu ratom SevarCie zemoaRniSnuli ori Teoria Sem-
degSi mdgomareobs: pirveli, es Teoriebi saerTaSoriso urTier-
TobebSi aliansebis Sesaxeb erT-erTi yvelaze cnobili Teorie-
bia. meore, kvlevis dawyebamde samxreT kavkasiis regionze arse-
buli literaturis mimoxilvisas aRmovaCine, rom ZalTa balan-
sis cneba erT-erTi yvelaze xSirad gamoyenebuli terminia re-
gionSi arsebuli aliansebis aRsawerad, maSin roca safrTxis bal-
ansis cneba arsad Semxvedria. am faqtma kidev ufro didi intere-
si gamiCina am Teoriebis Sedarebis mimarT.
ratom maincdamainc samxreT kavkasia? samxreT kavkasiis sax-
elmwifoebis empiriul SemTxvevebad SerCeva ramdenime faqtorma
10
ganapiroba. pirveli, regioni sakmaod mniSvnelovan rols Tama-
Sobs Tanamedrove msoflioSi da Sesabamisad, es faqti kvlevas
garda Teoriuli Rirebulebisa, sakmaod did praqtikul datvirT-
vas aZlevs. meore, imdenad ramdenadac regionSi saqarTveloc
Sedis, es garemoeba erTgvar aqtualobasac sZens kvlevas. da mes-
ame, zeviT aRniSnuli ori Teoriis daSvebebis gadamowmeba ukve
ganxorcielda axlo aRmosavleTisa da samxreT-dasavleT aziis
regionebis Seswavlis safuZvelze
1
. unda aRiniSnos, rom rodesac
vaxdenT Teoriebis daSvebebis gadamowmebas, droiTi da sivrco-
brivi midgomebis gamoyenebaa mizanSewonili. kerZod, Tu Teoria
axerxebs axsnas sxvadasxva drosa da sivrceSi ganviTarebuli pro-
cesebi, maSin didia am Teoriis amxsnelobiTi unari. garda amisa,
rodesac Teoriis Semowmebis mTavar meTodad SemTxvevebis Ses-
wavlis (Case Study) midgomas virCevT (winamdebare naSromi swored
SemTxvevebis Seswavlis meTods iyenebs Teoriebis daSvebebis ga-
dasamowmeblad), miRebuli Sedegebi da ganzogadebebi ufro vali-
duria, roca ara erTi, aramed ramdenime SemTxvevis Seswavlas vax-
denT. Sesabamisad, Tu samxreT kavkasiis regionis Seswavlis SemTx-
vevaSi SemoTavazebuli Teoriuli modelebi Tu winasawari
varaudebi iseTive warmatebiT imuSavebs, rogorc axlo aRmosav-
leTisa da samxreT-dasavleT aziis SemTxvevaSi, gamodis, rom Teo-
ria sivrcobrivi da droiTi midgomebis moTxovnebsac akmay-
ofilebs.
2
ase rom, Teoriebis daSvebebis gadamowmebis mizniT
samxreT kavkasiis regionis SerCeva am faqtmac ganapiroba.
naSromis meore, empiriuli mizani saqarTvelos, azerbaijanisa
da somxeTis sagareo urTierTobebis analizi da deskripciaa.
Tumca, aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom kvlevaSi am qveynebis sagareo
urTierTobebis ganzogadebuli suraTi iqneba warmodgenili da
mxolod im saxis empiriul monacemebze moxdeba aqcentireba,
romelic kvlevis aspeqtSi jdeba.
struqturulad naSromi or ZiriTad, Teoriul da empiriul
nawilad aris dayofili. Teoriul nawilSi moxdeba sakvanZo cnebe-
bis da ZiriTadi Teoriuli daSvebebis ganxilva, aseve ganvixilavT
1
ix. Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Cornell University Press. 1987), aseve,
Stephen M. Walt, Testing Theories of Alliance Formation: The Case of Southwest Asia (Interna-
tional Organization, Vol.42, No. 2. 1988).
2
SemTxvevebis Seswavlis (Case Study) meTodTan dakavSirebiT ix. Stephen Van Evera,
Guide to Methods for Students of Political Science, (Cornell University Press. 1997. pp. 49-66).
Sesavali
11
ZalTa da safrTxis wonasworobis Teoriebis mTavar varaudebs.
kvlevis meore, empiriuli nawili ki saqarTvelos, somxeTis da az-
erbaijanis sagareo urTierTobebis deskripcias da analizs da-
eTmoba.
ufro konkretulad ki naSromis struqtura Semdegnairad gam-
oiyureba: pirvel TavSi ganvixilavT sakvanZo cnebebs da ZiriTad
Teoriul daSvebebs. meore Tavi ZalTa wonasworobisa da safrTx-
is wonasworobis Teoriebis argumentebis gacnobas da analizs
daeTmoba. mesame TavSi SemoTavazebuli iqneba is ZiriTadi
winaswari Teoriuli varaudebi (hipoTezebi), romelTa gadamow-
mebac moxdeba empiriuli SemTxvevebis Seswavlis safuZvelze.
meoTxe, mexuTe da meeqvse Tavebi saqarTvelos, azerbaijanisa da
somxeTis sagareo urTierTobebis, rogorc empiriuli SemTxveve-
bis, Seswavlas daeTmoba. naSromis bolo Tavi ki daskvnis saxiT
iqneba warmodgenili.
Sesavali
Tavi pirveli
ZiriTadi Teoriuli
daSvebebi da definiciebi
naSromis am nawilSi ganxilulia sakvanZo definiciebi da Semo-
Tavazebulia ZiriTadi Teoriuli daSvebebi, romelsac kvleva
daefuZneba.
`samecniero konsensusi~ patara qveynebis kvlevasTan mima-
rTebaSi - kvlevis mTavari mizania ZalTa wonasworobisa da sa-
frTxis wonasworobis Teoriebis ZiriTadi daSvebebis Sedarebis
safuZvelze Seiswavlos Tu ra principiT xelmZRvaneloben samxreT
kavkasiis saxelmwifoebi mokavSireebis SerCevisas. gamomdinare im
faqtidan, rom samxreT kavkasiis samive saxelmwifo patara qvey-
nebis kategorias miekuTvneba, kvleva or mTavar Teoriul daSve-
bas emyareba: (1) saxelmwifoebi unitaruli aqtorebi arian, romel-
Ta sagareo politikur qcevebze did gavlenas axdens saerTa-
Soriso sistemis struqtura da sistemis sxva aqtorebi; (2) naS-
romi efuZneba e.w. `samecniero konsensuss~ patara qveynebis kvl-
evasTan mimarTebaSi da analizis doned SerCeulia saerTaSoriso
sistemis done, rogorc kvlevis yvelaze relevanturi done am ti-
pis saxelmwifoebis qcevebis asaxsnelad.
3
kvlevis done da adgili - kvlevis doned naSromi saerTaSoriso
sistemis dones eyrdnoba da mizez-Sedegobriobis identificir-
eba swored im cvladebTan mimarTebaSi xdeba, romelic saxelmwi-
3
patara qveynebTan mimarTebaSi e.w. `samecniero konsensusis~ analizisa da
aseve kritikisaTvis ix. Miriam Fendius Elman, The Foreign Policies of Small States:
Challenging Neorealism in Its Own Backyard (British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 25, No. 2.
Apr., 1995, pp.175-179).
13
foTa urTierTqmedebis Sedegad gamomdinareobs.
4
kvlevis siste-
mur doneze aqcentireba ufro meti Teoriuli momWirneobis Se-
narCunebis saSualebas iZleva. Sesabamisad kvleva, romelic mx-
olod erT doneze axdens cvladebis identificirebas ufro didi
Teoriuli Rirebulebisaa, vidre kvleva, romelic ramdenime do-
nis integrirebas axdens.
5
Tumca, naSromi bolomde holistur
(sistemur) midgomas ar miyveba da mis empiriul nawilSi reduq-
cionizmis garkveuli elementebi imdenad aris gamoyenebuli, ram-
denadac Teoriuli daSvebebis gadamowmeba saWiroebs amas.
6
mi-
uxedavad im faqtisa, rom kvlevis empiriul nawilSi saxelmwifoe-
bis sagareo politikuri qmedebebis analizi xdeba, kvleva, zogad
samecniero doneze, ufro saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis Teorie-
bis farglebSi moiazreba, vidre sagareo politikis analizis
samecniero disciplinis.
kavSiri - kavSirebze saubrisas naSromi am cnebis zogad defi-
nicias eyrdnoba. kerZod, glen snaideris mier SemoTavazebul
ganmartebas, romlis Tanaxmadac kavSirebis Seswavlisas ar unda
SevizRudoT iseTi tipis aliansebis SeswavliT, romelic formal-
izebul xasiaTs atarebs, aramed unda daveyrdnoT e.w. Àlignment~-
4
kvlevis doned saerTaSoriso sistemis donis SerCeva logikurad gamom-
dinareobs im faqtidan, rom Teoriebi (ZalTa da safrTxis wonasworobis), romel-
Ta daSvebebis gadamowmebas efuZneba kvlevis empiriuli nawili, sistemuri
Teoriebia. Sesabamisad, am SemTxvevaSi Teoria kvlevis garkveul sazRvarsac
warmoadgens, romelic adgens Tu ra saxis cvladebis da monacemebis identi-
ficireba unda moxdes kvlevis procesSi. nebismieri cvladi, romelic Teoriis
mier dadgenil sazRvrebs scdeba, ver iqneba inkorporirebuli kvlevis proces-
Si, radgan, aseT SemTxvevaSi, SerCeuli Teoria, didi albaTobiT, ararelevan-
turi gamodgeba.
5
saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi kvlevis doneebis Sesaxeb Teoriuli debate-
bis wamomwyebad keneT uolci miiCneva. ix. keneT uolci, adamiani, saxelmwifo da
omi. (gamomcemloba jisiai. 2003), aseve J. David Singer, International Conflict: Three
Levels of Analysis. (World Politics, Vol. 12, No. 3. Apr., 1960), Barry Buzan, The Level-of-
Analysis Problem in International Relations Reconsidered (In: International Relations Theory
Today. Ken Booth and Steve Smith (eds). Pennsylvania University Press. 1995.).
6
safrTxis wonasworobis da ZalTa wonasworobis Teoriebi orive saerTa-
Soriso sistemis donis Teoriaa. Tumca es ukanaskneli bolomde holistur midg-
omas efuZneba. aq igulisxmeba, rom marTalia Zliereba saxelmwifos donis cv-
ladia, magram ZalTa ganawileba ki sistemuri fenomenia (mag., aSS-is Zliereba
sistemis sxva aqtorebTan mimarTebaSi). rac Seexeba safrTxis wonasworobis Teo-
rias esec sistemuri Teoriaa, Tumca radgan safrTxis aRqma mainc saxelmwifos
doneze xdeba, igi bolomde holistur midgomas ar miyveba. holisturi da redu-
qcionistuli Teoriebis Sesaxeb ix. Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics
(McGraw Hill, Inc. First Ed. 1979. Chapters 2-3-4. pp.18-78).
Tavi pirveli
14
is fenomens, romelic gulisxmobs garkveul molodinebs, romel-
ic saxelmwifoebs erTmaneTTan mimarTebaSi SeiZleba hqondeT. am
molodinebis arsi daaxloebiT ase SeiZleba gamovsaxoT: vin da-
icavs vis? vin damiWers mxars am konkretul situaciaSi?
7
saerTa-
Soriso urTierTobebSi didi debatebi gamarTula im sakiTxze, Tu
rogor SeiZleba kavSirebis gansazRvra. saboloo jamSi, am Temaze
momuSave mecnierebi mividnen daskvnamde, rom kavSirebis Seswav-
lis SezRudva mxolod formaluri aliansebiT naklebad asaxavs
maT realur arss.
8
am sakiTxis naTeli ilustrirebisaTvis magal-
iTad aSS-sa da israels Soris arsebuli urTierTobebi gamogvadge-
ba. marTalia, am or saxelmwifos Soris formaluri xelSekrule-
ba arasdros arsebula, Tumca cota vinme Tu Seitans eWvs maT Soris
arsebul samokavSireo urTierTobebSi. Sesabamisad, naSromi kav-
Sirebis zogad definicias eyrdnoba da masSi cnebebi aliansebi,
kavSirebi da mokavSireoba urTierTmonacvled gamoiyeneba.
dabalanseba - kavSirSi Sesvla safrTxis wyaros winaaRmdeg misi
dabalansebis mizniT. miRebuli Sexedulebis Tanaxmad saxelmwi-
foebi safrTxis wyaros Sekavebas Tu ganeitralebas dabalansebis
gziT amjobineben.
9
stefan uoltis Tanaxmad, amgvar tendencias
sul mcire ori faqtori ganapirobebs. pirveli, gawonasworebis
gziT safrTxis wyaros Sekaveba ufro sando strategiaa, vidre
masTan mitmasneba da misi keTilganwyobis imedad yofna. meore,
kavSirSi Sesvla safrTxis wyarosTan (mitmasneba) gulisxmobs, rom
mokavSireebs Soris asimetriuli urTierTobebi yalibdeba da im
saxelmwifos moqmedebis Tavisufleba, romelic etmasneba, erTg-
varad izRudeba.
10
mitmasneba - am strategiis Tanaxmad saxelmwifo kavSirSi Se-
dis safrTxis wyarosTan.
11
wignSi dabalanseba da mitmasneba urT-
Tavi pirveli
7
Glenn Snyder, Alliances, Balance and Stability, (International Organization, Vol. 45. No.1.
1991. p. 123).
8
ix. Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Cornell University Press. 1987. p. 12),
aseve, Glenn Snyder, Alliances, Balance and Stability, (International Organization, Vol. 45.
No.1. 1991. p. 123).
9
ix. aleqsandre rondeli, saerTaSoriso urTierTobebi. (Tbilisis
damoukidebeli universiteti. 1996. gv. 124)
10
Stephen. M. Walt, Alliance Formation and Balance of World Power, (International Security,
Vol. 9. No. 4. 1985. p.5).
11
Randall L. Schweller, New Realist Research on Alliances: Refining, Not Refuting, Waltz's
Balancing Proposition. (The American Political Science Review, Vol. 91, No. 4 Dec. 1997. p.
928).
15
ierTsapirispiro strategiebad aris ganxiluli. pirveli gulisx-
mobs safrTxis wyaros winaaRmdeg kavSiris Sekvras, meore ki sa-
frTxis wyarosTan kavSiris Sekvras. Tumca, mitmasnebis uolti-
seul gansazRvrebas gavafarTovebdi da am cnebis randal Sveler-
iseul ganmartebas davamatebdi, romlis Tanaxmadac, mitmasnebas
mxolod negatiuri mniSvneloba ar aqvs da es movlena garkveul
pozitiur motivaciasac gulisxmobs. ase rom, mitmasnebas org-
vari datvirTva SeiZleba hqondes. pirveli, erTgvari kapitula-
cia safrTxis wyaros winaSe da meore, safrTxis wyarosTan kavSir-
Si Sesvla damatebiTi sargeblis miRebis mizniT.
12
Sesabamisi
pirobebis arsebobis SemTxvevaSi mitmasnebas orive motivacia Sei-
Zleba ganapirobebdes. magaliTad, fineTis mitmasneba sabWoTa kav-
SirTan am cnebis ufro negatiuri gagebis amsaxvelia. maSin roca,
stalinis gadawyvetileba mitmasnoda germanias, rac saboloo
jamSi molotov-ribentropis paqtis gaformebiT dagvirgvinda,
am cnebis ufro pozitiuri gagebis amsaxvelia. mitmasnebis Sede-
gad sabWoTa kavSirma, erTi mxriv, miiRo poloneTis garkveuli
nawili, meore mxriv ki, moipova dro germaniis winaaRmdeg mosamza-
deblad.
13
aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom dabalansebac da mitmasnebac Teori-
uli modelebia. Sesabamisad, saxelmwifoTa realuri qmedebebi
SesaZloa zustad am idealuri modelebis daSvebebs ar miyve-
bodes.
14
kerZod, saxelmwifo, romelic airCevs dabalansebis gzas,
SesaZloa aseve cdilobdes safrTxis wyarosTan arsebuli urT-
ierTobebis normalizebas da amis paraleluradve mis winaaRmdeg
TavdacviTi meqanizmebis moZiebas.
15
potenciur safrTxis
ZiriTadi Teoriuli daSvebebi da definiciebi
12
Randall L. Schweller, Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In
(International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1. Summer 1994)
13
Stephen M. Walt, Alliance Formation and Balance of World Power (International Security,
Vol. 9. No. 4. 1985. p.8).
14
saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi da zogadad politikur mecnierebaSi Zalian
iSviaTad xdeba xolme, roca realoba zustad jdeba SemoTavazebul Teoriul
modelSi. Tumca, Teorias arc moeTxoveba realobis detaluri analizi. Teor-
iulma modelma samyaros gamartivebuli da ganzogadebuli suraTi unda Se-
mogvTavazos. rac ufro meti cvladia TeoriaSi da rac ufro axlos dgas Teo-
ria realobasTan, es ukve Teoria ki ara, realobaa. am sakiTxTan dakavSirebiT
ix. Kenneth N. Waltz, Evaluating Theories (The American Political Science Review, Vol. 91, No.
4, Dec. 1997, pp. 913-917).
15
Stephen M. Walt, Testing Theories of Alliance Formation: The Case of Southwest Asia
(International Organization, Vol.42, No. 2. 1988. p. 282).
16
wyarosTan mitmasneba da urTierTobebis normalizebis mcdelo-
ba absoluturad sxvadasxva realobebia. am ukanasknels detantis
cneba ufro esadageba, vidre mitmasnebis.
16
aseve, saxelmwifo,
romelic safrTxis wyarosTan Sekravs kavSirs, SesaZlebelia, rom
amis parareluradve cdilobdes mis winaaRmdeg dabalansebis
strategiis asamuSaveblad sagareo mokavSireebis moZiebas.
16
(International Organization, Vol.42, No. 2. 1988. p. 282).
Tavi pirveli
Tavi meore
ZalTa wonasworoba Tu
safrTxis wonasworoba?
saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis samecniero disciplinaSi kav-
Sirebis Sesaxeb araerTi Teoria arsebobs, romelic gansxvavebu-
li kuTxiT cdilobs saerTaSoriso politikis am centraluri
fenomenis analizs. glen snaideri ramdenime maTgans gamoyofs.
maT Soris koleqtiuri sargeblis Teoria (romelic gansakuTre-
biT gavleniani XX saukunis 70-80-ian wlebSi iyo), sociologiuri
koaliciis Teoria, aseve `racionaluri arCevanis~ modelis far-
glebSi Seqmnili Teoriebi. Tumca es Teoriebi ZiriTadad nawi-
lobriv xsnida kavSirebis Seqmnis gamomwvev mizezebs.
17
naSromis
formati ar iZleva saSualebas detalurad gaanalizdes yvela
maTgani, Sesabamisad, yuradRebas saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis
mxolod or gavlenian Teoriaze SevaCerebT. es Teoriebia: stru-
qturuli ZalTa wonasworobis Teoria, romelic ZiriTadad cno-
bili neorealistis keneT uolcis saxels ukavSirdeba da safrTxis
wonasworobis Teoria, romelic stefan uoltma ZalTa wonas-
worobis Teoriis daSvebebis gadamowmebis gziT Seqmna da romel-
sac, miuxedavad imisa, rom realizmis paradigmis farglebSi rCe-
ba, ufro meti saerTo postklasikur realizmTan aqvs, vidre stru-
qturul realizmTan (neorealizmTan).
18
ZalTa wonasworobis Teoria
struqturuli ZalTa wonasworobis Teoriis arsis ukeT gasage-
17
Glenn H Snyder, Alliances, Balance and Stability (International Organization, Vol.45, No.
1. Winter 1991, p. 122).
18
neorealizmsa da postklasikur realizms Soris gansxvavebebis Taobaze ix.
Stephen G. Brooks, Duelling Realisms (International Organization, Vol. 51, No. 3. Summer 1997).
18
bad mokled mimovixiloT uolciseuli neorealizmis mTavari
daSvebebi saerTaSoriso politikasTan mimarTebaSi. uolci mis
Teorias bolomde saerTaSoriso sistemis doneze agebs da siste-
mis struqturis koncefcia Semoaqvs, rogorc analitikuri
meqanizmi. kerZod, sistemis struqturas sami elementi aqvs: anar-
qia (centraluri xelisuflebis ararseboba msoflioSi),
19
sax-
elmwifoTa Soris funqciuri msgavseba da ZalTa ganawileba. am
Teoriis logika gansakuTrebiT momWirnea da ase gamoiyureba:
radgan anarqia saerTaSoriso sistemis mudmivi maxasiaTebelia
(ucvladia), xolo anarqiidan egzogenurad gamomdinareobs is
faqti, rom saxelmwifoebi TviTdaxmarebis sistemas qmnian da TviT-
gadarCenaze zrunaven (esec ucvladia),
20
Sesabamisad, yvelaze mniS-
vnelovani amxsnelobiTi cvladi sistemaSi ZalTa ganawilebaa.
21
saxelmwifos Zala, Zliereba ki materialuri faqtorebiT izome-
ba. kerZod: mosaxleobis raodenoba, mTliani erovnuli produq-
ti, samxedro SesaZleblobebi da ase Semdeg da TiToeuli saxelm-
wifos usafrTxoeba da ara marto Zliereba sxvebTan mimarTebaSi
mis SedarebiT Zlierebazea damokidebuli.
22
struqturul ZalTa wonasworobis TeoriaSi aliansebis war-
19
anarqiis or gansxvavebul mniSvnelobasTan dakavSirebiT ix. Helen Milner, The
Assumption of Anarchy in International Relations Theory: A Critique. (In: Neorealism and Neolib-
eralism: The Contemporary Debate. David A. Baldwin. (Ed) Columbia University Press. 1993. pp
145- 153.).
20
daSveba, rom TviTdaxmareba (self-help) saerTaSoriso sistemis struqturis-
agan egzogenurad mocemulia, gaxda mTavari Teoriuli debatebis Tema konstru-
qtivizmis struqturul versiasa da neorealizms Soris. ix. Alexander Wendt, Anar-
chy Is What States Make of It: The Social Construction of Power Politics (International Organiza-
tion. Vol. 46, No. 2 Spring, 1992, pp. 391-425); Alexander Wendt, Constructing International
Politics (International Security, Vol. 20, No. 1. Summer 1995. pp. 71-81).
21
Stephen M. Walt, Revolution and War (World Politics, Vol. 44, No. 3. Apr., 1992 p. 330).
22
usafrTxoebasa da Zlierebas, rogorc saxelmwifos miznebs Soris arsebu-
li damokidebuleba warmoadgens erT-erT mTavar gansxvavebas realizmis uol-
cis, merSaimeris da morgenTaus versiebs Soris. uolci miiCnevs, rom saxelmwi-
fos interesebSi ara Zlierebis maqsimizaciaa, aramed usafrTxoebis. Zliereba
ubralod miznis (usafrTxoebis) miRwevis saSualebaa. maSin roca uolci Tvlis,
rom zedmeti Zliereba ufro usafrTxos ar xdis saxelmwifos, merSaimeri miiC-
nevs, rom rac ufro met Zlierebas flobs saxelmwifo, miT ufro metad aris misi
usafrTxoeba uzrunvelyofili. ix. Kenneth N. Waltz, The Origins of War in Neorealist
Theory (Journal of Interdisciplinary History, Vol. 18, No.4, Spring, 1988. p.616.); Bruce Bueno
De Mesquita, Principles of International Politics: People's Power, Preferences and Perceptions
(Congressional Quartely Inc. 2000. p.78) aseve John J. Mearsheimer, Realism, the Real World,
and the Academy (In: Realism and Institutionalism in International Studies. Michael Brecher and
Frank P. Harvey, (Eds), Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press, 2002, pp. 25-26.).
Tavi meore
19
moqmnis an ukve arsebul kavSirebSi saxelmwifoTa Sesvlis mTa-
vari mizezi saerTaSoriso sistemaSi yvelaze Zlieri saxelmwi-
fos dabalansebis mcdelobaa. Sesabamisad ZalTa wonasworobis
Teoria ambobs: `SeuerTdi ufro sust mxares~.
23
ZalTa wonasworobis TeoriaSi Zliereba pirdapir mibmulia
safrTxesTan. kerZod, iyo Zlieri TavisTavad gulisxmobs, rom Seni
siZliere araTu diskomforts, aramed safrTxes uqmnis sxvebs.
meorexarisxovani saxelmwifoebi, Tavisufali arCevanis saSu-
aleba Tu aqvT, SedarebiT susts emxrobian, radgan ufro Zlieri
maT emuqreba . . .(uolci)
24
daaxloebiT msgavs Sexedulebas aviTarebs jon merSaimeri,
rodesac ambobs, rom rac ufro did Zlierebas flobs konkretu-
li saxelmwifo, miT ufro met SiSs iwvevs igi sxvebSi.
25
ZalTa wonasworobis Teoriis momxre Teoretikosebis umete-
soba (rogorc klasikuri, aseve Tanamedrove realistebi) ar
axdens Zlierebis da safrTxis konceptebis erTmaneTisagan gam-
ijvnas. maTi gagebiT, safrTxis adekvaturad gasazomad mxolod
Zlierebis cvladic ki sakmarisia.
26
ZalTa wonasworobis Teoria, romelic mxolod ZalTa ganaw-
ilebis cvladze dayrdnobiT cdilobs axsnas saxelmwifoTa mier
kavSirebSi Sesvlis motivacia, marTalia akmayofilebs Teoriis
erT-erT mTavar Rirebulebas, kerZod momWirneobas, (kargi Teo-
ria es momWirne Teoriaa), Tumca misi amxsnelobiTi unari,
rogorc robert qioheini SeniSnavs, arasdros yofila bolomde
damajerebeli.
27
ZalTa wonasworobis Teoria
(ZiriTadi Teoriuli daSveba)
saxelmwifoebi kavSirSi Sedian saerTaSoriso sistemaSi yvelaze
23
Joseph. S. Nye, Jr. Understanding International Conflicts: An Introduction to Theory and
History. (Harvard University Press. Sixth Ed. 2007. p.65).
24
Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (McGraw Hill, Inc. First Ed. 1979. pp
126-127).
25
John J. Mearshaimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. (New York and London. W.W.
Norton and Company. 2001, p. 43).
26
Paul Fritz, Kevin Sweeney, The (De)limitations of Balance of Power Theory, (International
Interactions, Vol.30. 2004. p 289.).
27
Robert O. Keohane, Alliances, Threats and Uses of Neorealism (International Security, Vol.
13, No. 1 Summer 1988. p. 172).
ZalTa wonasworoba Tu safrTxis wonasworoba?
20
Zlieri saxelmwifos winaaRmdeg misi dabalansebis mizniT.
safrTxis wonasworobis Teoria
struqturul ZalTa wonasworobis TeoriaSi dabalanseba da
mitmasneba mxolod materialuri resursebiT aris gansazRvru-
li. Sesabamisad dabalanseba gulisxmobs kavSirSi Sesvlas ufro
sustTan, xolo mitmasneba ki ufro Zlieris mxares yofnas.
28
Tum-
ca, am Sexedulebas seriozuli SezRudvebi gaaCnia, radgan igi
mxedvelobaSi ar iRebs sxva faqtorebs, romelic SeiZleba sax-
elmwifoSi gadawyvetilebis mimRebebma gaiTvaliswinon. marTa-
lia, Zliereba sakmaod mniSvnelovani komponentia maT gaTvlebSi,
Tumca ara erTaderTi. Sesabamisad, ufro zusti iqneboda gveTq-
va, rom saxelmwifo kavSirSi SeiZleba Sevides im saxelmwifosTan
an mis winaaRmdeg, romelic yvelaze did safrTxes uqmnis mas.
29
magaliTad, koalicia, romelic Seiqmna germaniisa da misi mokav-
Sireebis winaRmdeg I da II msoflio omebis periodSi bevrad ufro
did materialur SesaZleblobebs flobda, vidre kavSiri, rom-
lis winaaRmdegac is Seiqmna.
30
ZalTa wonasworobis Teoria am
SemTxvevaSi uZluria, magram safrTxis wonasworobis Teoria ki
ambobs, rom miuxedavad germaniis SedarebiTi sisustisa mis
winaaRmdeg kavSiri warmoiqmna swored imis gamo, rom mas sxva sax-
elmwifoebi safrTxed aRiqvamdnen.
31
msgavs Sexedulebas aviTarebs
miCel Siiheni: `saxelmwifoebi kavSirSi ar Sedian mxolod Zliere-
bis winaaRmdeg. aucileblad unda arsebobdes safrTxis aRqma.
dasavleT evropis saxelmwifoebisTvis aSS-is Zliereba 1945 wl-
idan aRar iwvevda maTSi SiSs, maSin, roca sabWoTa kavSiri agresi-
uli qmedebebiT safrTxes uqmnida maT~.
32
edvin federi Crdil-
28
(International Organization, Vol.42, No. 2. 1988. p. 279.).
29
Stephen M. Walt, Alliance Formation and Balance of World Power, (International Security,
Vol. 9. No. 4. 1985. p.9).
30
Zliereba, rom erTaderTi komponenti araa dabalansebisa da kavSirebis
formirebis motivaciaSi amaze es konkretuli SemTxvevac miuTiTebs. germania
bevrad ufro susti iyo, vidre koalicia, romelic mis winaaRmdeg Seiqmna. I msof-
lio omis wina periodSi ZalTa ganawilebis Sesaxeb ix. Paul M. Kennedy, The First
World War and International Power System, (International Security, Vol. 9. No. 1. 1984. pp. 7-
40).
31
Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Cornell University Press. 1987. p. 22).
32
Michael Sheehan, The Balance of Power: History and Theory (New York: Routledge. 1996.
p. 55).
Tavi meore
21
oatlantikuri xelSekrulebis organizaciis Seqmnis mizezebze
saubrisas aRniSnavs, rom aliansi sabWoTa kavSiridan aRqmuli sa-
frTxis sapasuxod Seiqmna, xolo safrTxis Sefaseba ki sabWoTa
kavSiris SesaZleblobebis da ganzraxvebis gaTvaliswinebis safuZ-
velze xdeboda.
33
aqedan gamomdinare SegviZlia vivaraudoT, rom
safrTxis adekvaturad gasazomad mxolod Zlierebis cvladi sak-
marisi ar aris. Zliereba, ra Tqma unda, mniSvnelovania, Tumca ara
maincdamainc yvelaze mniSvnelovani. ganvixiloT is cvladebi,
romelic safrTxis cnebis ufro zusti gazomvis saSualebas
mogvcems. es faqtorebia (cvladebi)
34
:
(1) Zliereba
rac ufro didia saxelmwifos Zliereba potenciurad miT ufro
didi safrTxis Semcvelia igi sxva qveynebisaTvis. rodesac sax-
elmwifos SedarebiTi Zliereba izrdeba, sxva saxelmwifoebma Sesa-
Zloa es safrTxed aRiqvan. Sesabamisad, saxelmwifos SedarebiTi
Zlierebis zrdam SesaZloa dabalansebisa da kavSiris formireb-
is tendencias Seuwyos xeli. ase rom, ZalTa balansis Teoria bo-
lomde mcdari ar aris, Tumca, arasruli ki aris. Zliereba mx-
olod erT-erTi da ara maincdamainc yvelaze mniSvnelovania im
faqtorebs Soris, rac dabalansebis tendencias zrdis.
35
gansx-
vavebiT uolcisagan, romelic Tvlis, rom daubalansebeli Zala,
33
Edwin H. Fedder, The Concept of Alliance (International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 12, No. 1,
March 1968. p. 67).
34
naSromis am nawilSi ganxilulia uoltis mier SemoTavazebuli cvladebi,
rac misi ganmartebiT, gavlenas axdens safrTxis aRqmis xarisxze. Tumca Teor-
iuli momWirneobis SenarCunebis mizniT gamotovebulia erTi faqtori, rasac
uolti TavdasxmiT SesaZleblobebs (Offensive Power) uwodebs. mizezi am SemTx-
vevaSi mdgomareobs SemdegSi. pirveli, TavdasxmiTi Zliereba inkorporirebu-
lia zogadad Zlierebis cvladSi da misi calke ganxilva aucileblobas ar war-
moadgens. da meore, saxelmwifos TavdasxmiT da TavdacviT SesaZleblobebs Soris
gansxvavebis aRmoCena da am cvladis gazomva realurad sakmaod rTulia. Sesa-
bamisad, Teoriuli TvalsazrisiT am cvladis damateba Teoriis amxsnelobiT
unars ver zrdis da amavdroulad mas ufro rTuls xdis. TavdacviT da Tav-
dasxmiT SesaZleblobebs Soris gansxvavebis aRmoCenis sirTuleebTan dakavSire-
biT ix. Sean M. Lynn-Jones, Offense-Defense Theory and its Critics (Security Studies, Vol. 4,
No. 4. 1995. pp. 660-691) aseve, Charles L. Glaser; Chaim Kaufmann, What is the Offense-
Defense Balance and Can We Measure it? (International Security, Vol. 22, No. 4. Spring 1998, pp.
44-82.).
35
Stephen Walt, Keeping the World `Òff Balance``: Self Restraint and US Foreign Policy (In:
America Unrivaled: The Future of Balance of Power. G. John Ikenberry (Ed), Cornell University
Press. 2002. p. 134).
22
vinc ar unda flobdes mas, safrTxea sxva saxelmwifoebisaTvis,
36
uolti miiCnevs, rom Zliereba safrTxis aRqmaSi mxolod erT-erTi
komponentia.
rogorc vxedavT, safrTxis wonasworobis TeoriaSi Zlierebis
cvladi garkveul rols mainc TamaSobs. am SemTxvevaSi logika
daaxloebiT aseTia: Zliereba marTalia ara yvelaze mniSvnelo-
vani, Tumca saWiro cvladia safrTxis gasazomad, radgan Tu qvey-
ana imdenad sustia, rom mas agresiuli politikis Tu muqaris gan-
saxorcieleblad resursebi ar gaaCnia, maSin igi nakleb safrTxes
uqmnis sxva saxelmwifoebs. magaliTad, Zlieri, magram ara agresi-
uli qveyana safrTxes ar warmoadgens, iseve rogorc agresiuli,
magram susti qveyana mcire safrTxea. Tumca, am SemTxvevaSi mniS-
vnelovania gaviTvaliswinoT, Tu susti qveyana vis mimarT aris
agresiuli. Tu susti qveyana emuqreba did saxelmwifos (rac Zalian
iSviaTad xdeba xolme), maSin muqaris obieqti mas did safrTxed
ar miiCnevs. Tumca, Tuki susti qveyana missave sapirwones (sust
qveyanas) emuqreba, maSin am ukanasknelma SesaZloa igi did sa-
frTxed aRiqvas. safrTxis wonasworobis Teoriis mTeli argumenti
swored imaSi mdgomareobs, rom mxolod Zlierebis cvladze
dayrdnobiT SeuZlebelia safrTxis Sefaseba. radganac Zliereba
saxelmwifom ori gansxvavebuli mizniT SeiZleba gamoiyenos: dae-
muqros sxva saxelmwifos an ar daemuqros, swored aq ikveTeba im
damatebiTi faqtorebis mxedvelobaSi miRebis aucilebloba,
romelic safrTxis adekvaturad gazomvis saSualebas mogvcems.
37
(2) geografiuli siaxlove
saxelmwifoebi, romlebic axlos mdebareoben, potenciurad
ufro did safrTxes qmnian, vidre saxelmwifoebi, romlebic Sor-
saa. geografiuli siaxlove safrTxis xarisxis gazrdis potenci-
36
Kenneth N. Waltz, The Balance of Power and NATO Expansion, (Working Paper 5.66.
October 1998. p 1-2).
37
Zlierebis da safrTxis koncefciebis erTmaneTisagan gamijvnisa da anal-
izSi safrTxis aRqmis (Threat Perception) momentis Semotanis gamo bevrma uoltis
Teoria realizmidan konstruqtivizmisaken gadaxrad CaTvala. ix. Ted Hopf, The
Promise of Constructivism in International Relations Theory (International Security, Vol. 23,
No.1 Summer 1998, pp.186-187), aseve, Thomas Risse-Kapen, Collective Identity in a Demo-
cratic Community: The Case of NATO (In: The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity
in World Politics. Peter Katzenstein. (Ed). Columbia University Press. 1996. pp. 360-368), David
L. Rousseau, Identifying Threats and Threatening Identities: The Social Construction of Realism
and Liberalism, (Stanford University Press. 2006. pp.20- 21).
Tavi meore
23
uri meqanizmia. kerZod, rac ufro axlosaa ori saxelmwifo erT-
maneTTan, miT ufro didia albaToba, rom isini erTmaneTs sa-
frTxed aRiqvamen.
38
Tumca, aqve mxedvelobidan ar unda gamogvrC-
es, rom safrTxis gazomvis es mxolod erTi komponentia da sxva
komponentebTan erTad qmnis safrTxes. magaliTad, irani da aSS
erTmaneTisagan Sorsaa, Tumca orive saxelmwifos erTmaneTis sa-
frTxis aRqmaSi es siSore xels sulac ar uSlis. ase rom, argumen-
ti mdgomareobs daaxloebiT SemdegSi: geografiuli siaxlove
qmnis safrTxeebisa da aseve SesaZleblobebis garkveul struqtu-
ras, romelic apriori konfliqturi an TanamSromlobiTi urT-
ierTobebis ganmapirobebeli ver iqneba.
39
(3) agresiuli ganzraxvebi
saxelmwifoebi, romlebic gamokveTilad agresiulebi arian
potenciurad dabalansdebian sxva saxelmwifoebis mxridan. magal-
iTad, aliansi, romelic Seiqmna germaniisa da misi mokavSireebis
winaaRmdeg, ganpirobebuli iyo germaniis agresiuli qmedebebiT
da ara mxolod misi materialuri SesaZleblobebiT. ganzraxveb-
is Sefaseba gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovani faqtoria mokavSireeb-
is Sesaxeb gadawyvetilebis miRebisas.
40
am cvladis damatebiT
uolti acnobierebs, rom mxolod ZalTa ganawilebis faqtorze
dayrdnobiT SeuZlebelia safrTxis Semcveli saxelmwifos iden-
tificireba.
41
safrTxis wonasworobis Teoria
(ZiriTadi Teoriuli daSveba)
saxelmwifo kavSirSi Sedis ara maincdamainc yvelaze Zlieri
saxelmwifos dabalansebis mizniT, aramed im saxelmwifos winaaRm-
38
Jakub J. Grygiel, Great Powers and Geopolitical Change (The John Hopkins University
Press. 2006. p.17).
39
am sakiTxis ufro detaluri analizisaTvis ix. Harvey Starr; Benjamin A. Most,
The Substance and Study of Borders in International Relations Research (International Studies
Quarterly, Vol. 20, No. 4. Dec., 1976, pp. 584-588).
40
Stephen M. Walt, Alliance Formation and Balance of World Power, (International Security,
Vol. 9. No. 4. 1985. pp. 8-13).
41
Michael N. Barnett, Identity and Alliances in the Middle East (In: The Culture of National
Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics. Peter Katzenstein. (Ed). Columbia University
Press. 1996. pp. 403-404).
24
deg, romelic yvelaze did safrTxes uqmnis mas. (im SemTxvevaSi,
roca es ori cvladi erTmaneTs emTxveva, kerZod, saxelmwifo yve-
laze Zliericaa da agresiulic, es mainc ar cvlis am daSvebis
arss, romelSic mTeli Teoriuli simZime safrTxeze modis da ara
mxolod Zlierebaze)
safrTxis wonasworobis Teoriis mimoxilvis Semdeg SegviZlia
davaskvnaT, rom safrTxis adekvaturad gasazomad Semdegi cv-
ladebis kombinacia gvWirdeba: Zliereba, geografiuli siaxlove
da agresiuli ganzraxvebi. SemoTavazebuli cvladebidan pirve-
li ori (Zliereba da geografiuli siaxlove) materialuri faq-
torebia da maTi operacionalizacia da gazomva arcTu ise rTu-
lia. rac Seexeba, agresiuli ganzraxvebis cvlads (romelic ara-
materialuri cvladia), misi zusti gazomva sakmaod problema-
turia. marTalia, am cnebis zusti operacionalizacia martivi
ar aris, Tumca SeiZleba vivaraudoT, rom agresiuli ganzraxvebi
es aris (1) agresiuli gancxadebebi, romelsac erTi saxelmwifos
lideri an liderebi akeTeben meore saxelmwifos misamarTiT, da
(2) agresiuli qmedebebi, roca erTi saxelmwifo realuri qmede-
bebiT emuqreba meore saxelmwifos (igulixmeba erTi saxelmwifos
mier meore saxelmwifos teritoriuli mTlianobis winaaRmdeg mi-
marTuli qmedebebi. magaliTad, saxmeleTo, sazRvao da sahaero
sazRvrebis darRveva, an erTi saxelmwifos mier meore saxelmwi-
fos Sida saqmeebSi Careva saxelmwifos suverenitetis xelyofis
an reJimis damxobis mizniT). agresiuli ganzraxvebis cvladis
swored am gansazRvrebas daefuZneba naSromis empiriuli nawili.
erT-erTi gamosavali, imisaTvis, rom SevafasoT am cvladis
damoukidebeli roli, iqneba vnaxoT, Tu rogori korelaciaa agre-
siul ganzraxvebsa da kavSirebis warmoqmnas Soris. igulisxmeba,
rom Tu cvladi sworadaa SerCeuli, maSin erTi saxelmwifos mier
meore saxelmwifos winaaRmdeg agresiuli politikis gatarebas
unda moyves agresoris dabalanseba (kavSirSi Sesvla sxva saxelm-
wifosTan an saxelmwifoebTan) an Sesabamisi garemo-pirobebis ar-
sebobis SemTxvevaSi masTan mitmasneba.
Tavi meore
Tavi mesame
winaswari Teoriuli varaudebi*
naSromis am nawilSi SemoTavazebulia is ZiriTadi winaswari
Teoriuli varaudebi, romelTa gadamowmebac moxdeba mis empiri-
ul nawilSi.
zogadi hipoTezebi:
(a) saxelmwifoebi kavSirebSi Sesvlisas ar xelmZRvaneloben
sistemaSi Zlierebis (saerTaSoriso sistemaSi yvelaze Zlieri sax-
elmwifos) dabalansebis motivaciiT, aramed maTi mTavari
sazrunavi im saxelmwifos dabalansebaa, romelic yvelaze did
safrTxes uqmnis maT;
42
(b) saxelmwifoebi amjobineben safrTxis wyaros dabalansebas,
vidre masTan mitmasnebas.
hipoTezebi dabalansebasTan mimarTebaSi:
(a) sagareo safrTxis arsebobis SemTxvevaSi saxelmwifo kavSirs
Sekravs sxva saxelmwifosTan an saxelmwifoebTan safrTxis wyaros
dabalansebis mizniT;
(b) rac ufro didia sagareo safrTxe an misi aRqma, miT ufro
izrdeba safrTxis wyaros winaaRmdeg dabalansebis strategiis
*
winaswari Teoriuli varaudebi, romelTa gadamowmebasac daefuZneba kvle-
vis empiriuli nawili, mcirediT Secvlili da Semcirebuli saxiT aris warmod-
genili, vidre maTi originaluri versiebi. hipoTezebis sruli CamonaTvali-
saTvis ix. Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Cornell University Press. 1987. pp. 32-
33, 40, 46, 49.
42
sakiTxSi ufro meti sicxadis Setanis mizniT unda aRvniSno, rom safrTxis
Seqmnas da safrTxis aRqmas (percefcias) urTierTmonacvled viyeneb.
26
43
sust saxelmwifoSi vgulisxmob ara mxolod patara saxelmwifos (Small Pow-
er), aramed qveyanas, romelic rogorc saxelmwifoc sustia. ix. aleqsandre ron-
deli, patara qveyana saerTaSoriso sistemaSi (Tbilisi. 2003), aseve susti sax-
elmwifos (Weak State) definiciisaTvis ix. revaz baxtaZe, gadawyvetilebis miRe-
ba sust saxelmwifoSi (bTkk-s saerTaSoriso politikis kvlevebis seria. Tbili-
si. 2007. gv. 15-35).
arCevis albaToba;
(g) rac ufro naklebia sagareo safrTxe an misi aRqma, miT nak-
lebia dabalansebis strategiis arCevis albaToba;
(d) saxelmwifoebi sagareo safrTxis arsebobis SemTxvevaSi da-
balansebas ganaxorcieleben ori gziT: pirveli, kavSirs Sekraven
sxva saxelmwifosTan an saxelmwifoebTan (gare dabalanseba). me-
ore, dabalansebas Seecdebian sakuTari Tavis gaZlierebis xar-
jze (Sida dabalanseba). dabalansebis es ori gza erTmaneTs ar
gamoricxavs. saxelmwifo sagareo safrTxis dabalansebis mizniT
SesaZlebelia kavSiris Sekvrasac cdilobdes da sakuTari Tavis
gaZlierebasac;
(e) rac ufro didia safrTxis wyaros Zliereba, miT ufro izrde-
ba sxva saxelmwifoebis mxridan mis winaaRmdeg kavSiris formire-
bis tendencia;
(v) rac ufro axlosaa Zlieri saxelmwifo, miT ufro didia
albaToba, rom geografiulad axlos mdebare saxelmwifoebi mas
safrTxed aRiqvamen da kavSirs Sekraven mis winaaRmdeg;
(z) rac ufro agresiulia saxelmwifo, miT ufro didia alba-
Toba, rom sxva saxelmwifoebi kavSirs Sekraven mis winaaRmdeg.
hipoTezebi mitmasnebasTan mimarTebaSi:
mitmasnebis gziT kavSirebis warmoqmna ufro iSviaTia. Tumca
mitmasnebis strategias saxelmwifoebi Semdegi garemo-pirobebis
arsebobis SemTxvevaSi mimarTaven:
(a) rac ufro sustia saxelmwifo, miT ufro didia albaToba,
rom igi mitmasnebis strategias airCevs;
43
(b) saxelmwifo mitmasnebis strategias airCevs maSin, roca
mokavSireebi ar hyavs, sxva arCevani ar aqvs;
(g) saxelmwifo mitmasnebis strategias airCevs maSin, roca Tv-
lis, rom misi am nabijiT safrTxis wyaros daaSoSminebs.
Tavi mesame
27
mas Semdeg rac ganvsazRvreT ZiriTadi Teoriuli daSvebebi da
cnebebi, aseve ganvixileT ZalTa da safrTxis wonasworobis
Teoriebis mTavari argumentebi da movaxdineT winaswari varaude-
bis formulireba, mTavari amocana, romelic Sesasrulebeli
dagvrCa aris vnaxoT, Tu ramdenad adasturebs naSromis empiriu-
li nawili SemoTavazebul hipoTezebs. kvlevis darCenili nawili
swored am amocanis irgvliv gaiSleba.
winaswari Teoriuli varaudebi
28
Tavi mesame
naxazi 1. ZalTa wonasworobis Teoria
* davuSvaT, rom sistemaSi warmodgenilia oTxi: A, B, C, da D saxelmwifo. A
saxelmwifo sistemis yvelaze Zlieri aqtoria. ZalTa wonasworobis Teoriis
logikiT, B, C da D saxelmwifoebi erTmaneTTan Sekraven kavSirs A-s winaaRm-
deg misi SedarebiTi Zlierebis dabalansebis mizniT.
* davuSvaT, rom ZalTa ganawileba sistemaSi igivea. A saxelmwifo kvlav siste-
mis yvelaze Zlieri aqtoria, Tumca D saxelmwifo yvelaze did safrTxes uqmnis
B-s da C-s. safrTxis wonasworobis Teoriis logikiT B da C sistemis yvelaze
Zlier aqtorTan Sekraven kavSirs D saxelmwifodan momavali safrTxis gawonas-
worebis mizniT. am naxazis mixedviT, marTalia A saxelmwifo yvelaze Zlieria,
Tumca radgan misi Zliereba safrTxes ar uqmnis B-s da C-s mis winaaRmdeg kav-
Siris warmoqmna ar moxdeba. am SemTxvevaSi D-s mier B da C saxelmwifoebisaTvis
Seqmnili safrTxe izomeba Semdegi cvladebis kombinaciiT. D-s Zliereba + D-s
geografiuli siaxlove B-sTan da C-sTan + -s agresiuli ganzraxvebi.
naxazi 2. safrTxis wonasworobis Teoria
Tavi meoTxe
saqarTvelo
damoukideblobis aRdgenis Semdeg saqarTvelos sagareo poli-
tikaSi ramdenime ZiriTadi etapi SeiZleba gamoiyos. pirveli eta-
pi zviad gamsaxurdias xelisuflebaSi mosvlidan da damoukide-
blobis gamocxadebidan iwyeba da 1992 wlamde grZeldeba.* meore
etapi eduard SevardnaZis dabrunebas da saqarTvelos damoukide-
blobis saerTaSoriso aRiarebas emTxveva da 2003 wlamde grZelde-
ba. Tumca, mkvlevarTa garkveuli nawili SevardnaZis mmarTvelo-
bis periodis saqarTvelos sagareo politikaSi aseve or qve-pe-
riods gamoyofs. pirveli, 1992-1995 wlebi, rodesac qveyanam waa-
go omi afxazeTSi da damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa Tanamegobrobas
(dsT) SeurTda. meore qve-periodis dawyeba 1995 wels konstituci-
is miRebas emTxveva da 2003 wlamde grZeldeba. saqarTvelos sa-
gareo politikis mesame etapi 2003 wlis vardebis revoluciis Sed-
egad xelisuflebis SecvliT, prezidentad mixeil saakaSvilis
arCeviT iwyeba da dRevandel dRemde grZeldeba.
zviad gamsaxurdias mmarTvelobis periodSi saqarTvelos sa-
gareo urTierTobebs ramdenime faqtori gansazRvravda. maT
Soris gansakuTrebiT sami faqtoris gamoyofaa SesaZlebeli:
pirveli, Tavad zviad gamsaxurdia da misi damokidebuleba,
rogorc sagareo, aseve Sida politikisadmi. meore, politikuri
zviad gamsaxurdias prezidentobis periodSi saqarTvelos damoukideblo-

ba jer kidev ar iyo aRiarebuli saerTaSoriso sazogadoebis mier. Sesabamisad,
erT-erTi mizezi imisa, Tu ratom ar ganixilavs mkvlevarTa garkveuli nawili
am periodis saqarTvelos sagareo urTierTobebs calke periodad, esec gaxlavT.
Tumca SemoTavazebul naSromSi ganzogadebuli saxiT mainc xdeba am periodis
saqarTvelos sagareo politikis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebis ganxilva da anal-
izi. saqarTvelos suverenul saxelmwifod aRiareba eduard SevardnaZis xe-
lisuflebaSi mosvlis Semdeg xdeba. amasTan dakavSirebiT ixileT. al. ronde-
li. damoukidebeli saqarTvelos arCevani (axali azri, nomeri 3, noember-de-
kemberi 2001. gv 9.).
30
viTareba qveynis SigniT. da mesame, saqarTvelosaTvis im periodSi
arasasurveli geopolitikuri realoba, romlis mTavari ganm-
sazRvreli mezobeli ruseTis federacia iyo.
rogorc aRiniSna, gamsaxurdias mmarTvelobis periodSi
saqarTvelo, rogorc damoukidebuli, suverenuli erTeuli jer
kidev ar iyo aRiarebuli saerTaSoriso sazogadoebis mier. mkv-
levarTa garkveuli nawilis SexedulebiT, am periodis saqarTve-
los sagareo politika naklebad emyareboda strategiul gaTv-
lebs da arsebuli geopolitikuri viTarebis adekvatur Sefase-
bas da e.w. `strategiuli idealizmiT~ gamoirCeoda.
44
gamsaxur-
dias mmarTvelobis periodi, rogorc Sida, aseve sagareo poli-
tikaSi, e.w. populizmis fenomeniT xasiaTdeboda.
45
politikisad-
mi populisturma damokidebulebam ori urTierTsapirispiro da
umwifari demokratiisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli fenomeni warmoaCi-
na. pirveli, gamsaxurdias populizmiT ganmsWvalulma damokide-
bulebam, rogorc Sida, aseve sagareo politikisadmi Tavdapirv-
el etapze mas saSualeba misca xalxis didi mxardaWera moepove-
bina. da meore, mis mier gamoyenebulma marTvis meTodebma maleve
miiyvana qveynis imdroindeli administracia avtoritarizmam-
de.
46
ronald grigor sunis SexedulebiT, gamsaxurdias mzardma
avtoritarizma ara mxolod eTnikurad araqarTvelebis, aramed
erovnuli moZraobis bevri lideris gaucxoebasac Seuwyo xeli.
47
miuxedavad im faqtisa, rom qveynis xelmZRvanelobis erT-erT
mTavar politikur niSas gamoucdeloba warmoadgenda, gamsaxur-
dias periodSic iyo sagareo politikuri prioritetebis gan-
sazRvris mcdelobebi.
48
sul mcire erTi aseTi prioritetis
gamoyofaa SesaZlebeli. es iyo imdroindeli saqarTvelos mcde-
loba gamijvnoda ruseTs da sxva saxelmwifoebis mxardaWera moe-
44
al. rondeli. damoukidebeli saqarTvelos arCevani (axali azri, nomeri 3,
noember-dekemberi 2001. gv. 5).
45
Stephen Jones, The Role of Cultural Paradigms in Georgian Foreign Policy. (In: Ideology
and National Identity in Post-Soviet Foreign Policies. Rick Fawn (Ed), Frank Cass Publishers.
2004. pp. 83-110).
46
saqarTvelos politikuri landSafti: miRwevebi, gamowvevebi da perspeq-
tivebi (red. gia nodia, alvaro pinto sqoltbaxi. CIPDD. 2006. gv. 12).
47
Ronald Grigor Suny, Provisional Stabilities: The Politics of Identities in Post-Soviet
Eurasia, (International Security, Vol. 24, No.3. Winter, 1999-2000. p.163).
48
noember-dekemberi 2001 gv. 8).
Tavi meoTxe
31
povebina.
49
am mimarTulebiT ramdenime nabijis gadadgmac moxda.
gamsaxurdia Seecada aSS-is mxardaWera moepovebina da 1990 wlis
martSi vaSingtonSi am mizniT Tavisi warmomadgenelic ki gaagza-
vna. Tumca, am vizits xelSesaxebi Sedegebi ar mohyolia.
50
gamsax-
urdias mmarTvelobis periodis saqarTvelos sagareo politika
aseve im faqtiTac aris mniSvnelovani, rom miuxedavad ruseTis
zewolisa, romelic erTi mxriv, separatistuli moZraobebis,
xolo meore mxriv, misi Sida oponentebis mxardaWeraSi gamoix-
ateboda, igi saqarTvelos damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa Taname-
gobrobaSi (dsT) gawevrianebis gadawyvetilebas ar iRebs.
1992 wels zviad gamsaxurdias xelisuflebis damxobis Semdeg
saqarTveloSi eduard SevardnaZe brundeba. misi dabrunebis Sem-
deg ganxorcielda saqarTvelos suverenul saxelmwifod aRiare-
ba saerTaSoriso sazogadoebis mniSvnelovani nawilis mier.
saqarTvelos sagareo politika SevardnaZis xelisuflebaSi mos-
vlidan 12 Tvis ganmavlobaSi dsT-Si Sesvlamde da soxumis dace-
mamde, ruseTis gavlenis sferoSi dabrunebis winaaRmdegobiT gam-
oirCeoda.
51
miuxedavad imisa, rom sawyis etapze SevardnaZis poli-
tika dsT-sTan mimarTebaSi radikalurad ar gansxvavdeboda misi
winamorbedisagan, igi, helena frezieris SexedulebiT, ufro prag-
matul stilSi saubrobda ruseTTan urTierTobebis normalizeb-
is aucileblobaze.
52
Tumca, SevardnaZe agrZelebda saqarTvelos
dsT-Si gawevrianebis moTxovnisadmi winaaRmdegobas da dRis wes-
rigSi saqarTvelodan rusuli jarebis gayvanis sakiTxic ki daay-
ena. im periodSi SevardnaZe imasac ki amtkicebda, rom politikuri
da samxedro integracia dsT-Si saqarTvelos interesebs ewinaaRm-
degeboda.
53
amave periodSi, ruseTis Zaladobrivi diplomatia ramdenime
mimarTulebiT xorcieldeboda. pirveli, ruseTi afxazeTis kon-
fliqtSi mxars separatistebs uWerda. ruseTis mier afxazeTis
konfliqtSi separatistebis mxareze monawileobis gamo Sevard-
naZe am konfliqts Riad uwodebda saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris
49
noember-dekemberi 2001 gv. 8).
50
revaz baxtaZe, gadawyvetilebis miReba sust saxelmwifoSi (bTkk-s saerTa-
Soriso politikis kvlevebis seria. Tbilisi. 2007. gv. 57).
51
Helena Frazer, A Case of Bandwagonning? Georgian Foreign Policy and Relations With
Russia. (University of Oxford. MPhil in International Relations. 1997. p. 16).
52
iqve. . .
53
iqve. . .
saqarTvelo
32
konfliqts.
54
meore strategia iyo ekonomikuri blokada, romel-
ic saqarTvelosaTvis bunebrivi airis miwodebisa da satelefono
kavSirebis SewyvetiT ganxorcielda. aseve ruseTma uari uTxra
saqarTvelos kreditebis gamoyofaze, maSin roca sabWoTa kavSiris
sxva yofil respublikebs kreditebis aRebis ufleba misca. da me-
same, SevardnaZes seriozuli eWvebi hqonda, rom ruseTi samxedro
mxardaWeras zviad gamsaxurdias momxreebsac uwevda.
ruseTi aseve mxars uWerda separatistebs `samxreT oseTSi~, sa-
dac konfliqtma eskalacias 1991-1992 wlebSi miaRwia.
55
analiti-
kosTa erTi nawili aSkarad saubrobda am konfliqtSi ruseTis
interesebze da imasac ambobda, rom ruseTi pirdapir iyo CarTu-
li samxedro moqmedebebSi. analitikosTa meore nawili ki ruse-
Tis pirdapir monawileobas am konfliqtSi sadavod miiCnevda da
amas xsnida im faqtiT, rom im periodSi, roca konfliqti daiwyo,
ruseTis sagareo politika saqarTvelosTan mimarTebaSi jer kidev
saTanadod formulirebuli ar iyo.
56
Tumca 1992 wlis mais-ivnis-
Si ukve SesamCnevi gaxda ruseTis daintereseba saqarTvelos am
regionSi mimdinare procesebiT. kerZod, ruseTis uzenaesi sab-
Wos Tavmjdomarem ruslan xasbulatovma da vice-prezidentma
aleqsandre ruckoim wamoiwyes saubari `samxreT oseTis~ ruseT-
Tan mierTebis sakiTxTan dakavSirebiT.
57
xasbulatovis gancxa-
debiT, `ruseTi yvela Rones ixmars, rom man ar dauSvas misi mo-
qalaqeebis uflebebis darRveva~
58
am gancxadebaSi ruseTis uzen-
aesi sabWos Tavmjdomare `samxreT oseTs~ moiazrebda da am teri-
toriaze mcxovreb adamianebsac, ruseTis moqalaqeebad miiCnev-
da. kidev ufro meti, xasbulatovi SevardnaZes Tbilisis dabomb-
viTac daemuqra, im SemTxvevaSi Tu qarTuli mxare samxedro mo-
qmedebebs ar Sewyvetda `samxreT oseTSi~.
59
mezobel saxelmwifosTan daZabuli urTierTobebis fonze Se-
vardnaZe e.w. òri ruseTis~ politikas atarebda. igi Tvlida, rom
pasuxismgebeli ruseTis mxridan Seqmnil viTarebaze ara elcini
54
Jonathan Aves, The Caucasus States: The Regional Security Complex, (In: Security Dille-
mas in Russia and Eurasia Eds. Roy Allison and Christoph Bluth. London: RIIA, 1998, p. 180).
55
Edgar O, Balance, Wars in the Caucasus ( New York University Press. 1997. p.117).
56
Svante E. Cornell, Small Nations and Great Powers: A study of Ethnopolitical Conflict in
the Caucasus (Routledge Curzon. 2001. p. 346.).
57
iqve . . . .
58
iqve . . . .
59
iqve . . . .
Tavi meoTxe
33
da saprezidento aparatSi myofi `demokratebi~ iyvnen, aramed
uzenaesi sabWo da gansakuTrebiT samxedroebi. amave periodSi
saqarTvelo ruseTSi Sida politikuri dapirispirebis centrSi
imyofeboda da droTa ganmavlobaSi aSkarad ikveTeboda, rom
saqarTvelosTan urTierTobebis gasaRebi rusi samxedroebis xe-
lSi iyo.
60
SevardnaZis xelisufleba dasavleTidan eloda daxmarebas
samoqalaqo da eTnikur omebSi gaxveuli qveynis problemebis ga-
dasaWrelad da Sesamsubuqeblad. Tumca, raki am imedma ar gaama-
rTla SevardnaZe nel-nela daadga ruseTTan daaxloebis poli-
tikas.
61
1993 wlis 27 seqtembers Sida da sagareo daZabulobis
fonze SevardnaZe ruseTis prezidents, boris elcins ugzavnis
telegramas, romelSic igi Tanxmdeboda saqarTvelos dsT-Si gaw-
evrianebas da rasac igi aRwerda, rogorc `saqarTvelos daCoqe-
bas~.
62
SevardnaZis am gadawyvetilebas mohyva saqarTveloSi oTxi
rusuli samxedro bazis Camoyalibeba da 1994 wlis martSi ruseT-
sa da saqarTvelos Soris xeli moewera `megobrobis, mezoblo-
bisa da TanamSromlobis~ xelSekrulebas.
63
amave periodSi ruse-
Tis mTavroba sanqciebis serias wamoiwyebs afxazeTis winaaRmdeg,
rac afxazeTis CrdiloeT sazRvrisa da soxumis aeroportis dax-
urviT gamoixata.
64
bevri analitikosis mier SevardnaZis es gadawyvetileba Sefas-
da, rogorc kapitulacia safrTxis wyarosTan. Tumca, Tu am gada-
wyvetilebis ufro detalur analizs movaxdenT aRmovaCenT, rom
mitmasnebis arCevani bolomde negatiuri gagebiT ar unda ganvix-
iloT. kerZod, dsT-Si Sesvla SevardnaZem ori mimarTulebiT gam-
oiyena. pirveli, man daaSoSmina sagareo agresori da meore, amave
sagareo aqtoris gamoyenebiT SeZlo saxelmwifoSi SedarebiTi
stabilurobis damyareba da sakuTari reJimis sicocxlisunari-
60
Jonathan Aves, National Security and Military Issues in the Transcaucasus: The Cases of
Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia (In: State Building and Military Power in Russia and the New
States of Eurasia, Bruce Parrott (Ed), M.E. Sharpe. Inc. 1995. p. 226).
61
David Darchiashvili, Georgia in the South Caucasus Regional Context (Building Democracy
in Georgia, Discussion Paper 12, May 2003. p. 8).
62
Jonathan Wheatley, Georgia from National Awakening to Rose Revolution: Delayed Transi-
tion in the Former Soviet Union (Free University, Germany. 2004. p.84.).
63
Ted Hopf, Identity, Legitimacy and the Use of Military Force: Russias Great Power Identi-
ties and Military Intervention in Abkhazia. (Review of International Studies. Vol 31. 2005. p.229).
64
Dov Lunch, Russian Peacekeeping Strategies in the CIS: The Case of Moldova, Georgia and
Tajikistan (London, Macmillan. 2000. p. 141).
saqarTvelo
34
anobis uzrunvelyofa.
65
dsT-Si Sesvla safrTxis wyarosTan mitmasnebis klasikuri SemTx-
veva iyo. logikuri iqneba vikiTxoT: marTldeba Tu ara naSromis
Teoriul nawilSi SemoTavazebuli daSvebebi mitmasnebis strate-
giasTan mimarTebaSi? sanam am kiTxvas pasuxs gavcemdeT, kidev erTx-
el gavixsenoT is ZiriTadi Teoriuli varaudebi, romelic mit-
masnebasTan mimarTebaSi gamoiTqva. sagareo safrTxis wyarosTan
mitmasneba naklebad sasurveli arCevania qveynisTvis. Sesabamis-
ad, swored es xsnis gamsaxurdias da SevardnaZis Tavdapirvel
uaryofiT damokidebulebas dsT-Si gawevrianebis sakiTxisadmi.
Tu mivubrundebiT kvlevis Teoriul nawilSi gamoTqmul mo-
sazrebebs mitmasnebis strategiasTan mimarTebaSi, aRmovaCenT,
rom winaswari varaudebi mitmasnebasTan mimarTebaSi gamarTlda.
saxelmwifo maSin irCevs mitmasnebis strategias, roca (1) sustia,
(2) roca sxva mokavSire, romelic safrTxis dabalansebaSi daex-
mareba, ar hyavs, (3) roca Tvlis, rom safrTxis wyaro daSoSmineba-
dia. 1993 wlis saqarTvelos SemTxvevaSi samive winapiroba arse-
bobda. pirveli, mTeli am periodis ganmavlobaSi saqarTvelo sust
saxelmwifos warmoadgenda. bruno kopitersis SexedulebiT 1990-
iani wlebis pirvel naxevarSi saqarTvelo iyo ara ubralod sus-
ti saxelmwifo, aramed igi afxazeTsa da `samxreT oseTSi~ mim-
dinare movlenebisa da Sida politikuri dapirispirebebis fonze
sisustis subkategoriaSi CaiZira, rac àrSemdgari saxelmwifos
saxeliTaa cnobili~.
66
aseve marTldeba meore Teoriuli daSveba
mitmasnebasTan mimarTebaSi: saxelmwifo mitmasnebis strategias
maSin irCevs, roca sxva mokavSireebi ar hyavs da sxva arCevani ar
aqvs. afxazeTSi omis mimdinareobisas SevardnaZem werilobiT mi-
marTa gaero-s generalur mdivans konfliqtis zonaSi gaero-s
samSvidobo Zalebis ganTavsebis Sesaxeb, Tumca pasuxi gaero-dan
iyo, rom jer amgvari proeqtis gansaxorcieleblad Sesabamisi
dro ar iyo damdgari.
67
amas emateboda is faqtic, rom 1990-iani
65
ix. Helena Frazer, A Case of Bandwagonning? Georgian Foreign Policy and Relations With
Russia. (University of Oxford. MPhil in International Relations. 1997.); aseve, revaz baxtaZe,
gadawyvetilebis miReba sust saxelmwifoSi (bTkk-s saerTaSoriso politikis
kvlevebis seria. Tbilisi. 2007).
66
bruno kopitersi, saqarTvelos usafrTxoebis modeli: centri-periferia
(saxelmwifoebrioba da usafrTxoeba: saqarTvelo vardebis~ revoluciis Sem-
deg. bruno kopitersi da robert legvoldi. (red) Tbilisi. 2006. gv. 447-448).
67
Edgar O, Balance, Wars in the Caucasus (New York University Press. 1997. p. 127).
Tavi meoTxe
35
wlebis Suaxanebamde evropas da aSS-s gamokveTili da Tanmimdevru-
li politika zogadad regionTan mimarTebaSi ar hqondaT Se-
muSavebuli. amis mizezad zeino barani asaxelebs im faqts, rom
aSS-Si politikosTa da analitikosTa mniSvnelovani nawili nak-
lebad icnobda regions.
68
svante kornelis SexedulebiT 1991-1994
wlebSi aSS-is aqtiur CarTvas samxreT kavkasiaSi mimdinare pro-
cesebSi, mraval faqtorTan erTad (maT Soris rogoric iyo bal-
kaneTsa da somaliSi ganviTarebuli movlenebi) im faqtmac SeuSa-
la xeli, rom vaSingtoni jer kidev ar miiCnevda, rom mas mniS-
vnelovani erovnuli interesebi hqonda regionTan mimarTebaSi.
69
am mxriv devid marki bevrad ufro Sors midis da Tvlis, rom
samxreT kavkasia dasavleTis mier ZiriTadad ignorirebuli iyo
mTeli bolo 300 wlis ganmavlobaSi, garda umniSvnelo yuradReb-
isa yirimisa da msoflio omebis periodSi.
70
rogorc Cans,
winaswari Teoriuli varaudebi mitmasnebasTan mimarTebaSi gama-
rTlda. saqarTvelo, romelic mTeli im periodis ganmavlobaSi
iyo susti saxelmwifo, romelsac sxva mokavSire ar hyavda da
romelic Tvlida, rom dsT-Si gawevrianebiT, SeZlebda agresoris
daSoSminebas, mitmasnebis strategias irCevs.
Tumca, 1990-iani wlebis meore naxevridan suraTi erTgvarad
icvleba. Tu 1995 wlamde ruseTis gavlenas samxreT kavkasiaSi met-
naklebad zRudavda CeCneTSi mimdinare konfliqti, 1995 wlidan
regionSi ruseTs aSkara konkurentebi gamouCnda dasavleTis sax-
elmwifoebis saxiT.
71
1995 wlidan saqarTvelos sagareo politikaSi axali epoqis
dawyeba konstituciis miRebas da qveynis SigniT SedarebiTi sta-
bilurobis uzrunvelyofas emTxveva.
72
aleqsandre rondeli mi-
iCnevs, rom 1995 wlidan, miuxedavad ruseTis zewolisa da afx-
azeTsa da `samxreT oseTSi~ mougvarebeli konfliqtebisa,
68
Zeyno Baran, The Caucasus: Ten Years after Independence (The Washington Quartely, 25:1,
Winter 2002. p. 222).
69
Svante Cornell, US Engagement in the Caucasus: Changing Gears (Helsinki Monitor, 2005
No. 2. p.111).
70
David E. Mark, Eurasia Letter: Russia and the New Transcaucasus (Foreign Policy, No 105.
Winter 1996-1997. pp. 153).
71
jaba devdariani, saqarTvelo da ruseTi: rTuli gza urTierTgagebisaken
deg. bruno kopitersi da robert legvoldi. (red) Tbilisi. 2006. gv. 224).
72
saqarTvelo
36
saqarTvelo mainc axerxebs dasavleTze orientirebuli sagareo
politikuri kursis aRebas.
73
am periodidan moyolebuli Sevard-
naZe aaqtiurebs diplomatias dasavleTTan mimarTebaSi. 1995 wlis
TebervalSi SevardnaZe did britaneTSi vizitis farglebSi xvde-
ba dedofal elizabed II-s, premier ministr jon meiors da sxva
politikosebs. amave Sexvedris farglebSi saqarTvelosa da did
britaneTs Soris xdeba `megobrobisa da TanamSromlobis Sesaxeb~
deklaraciis dadeba.
74
aseve aqtiurdeba saqarTvelos urTier-
Tobebi nato-sTan, rac saboloo jamSi nato-s partnioroba mSvi-
dobisaTvis (PfP) programaSi CarTviT gamoixata. amave programis
farglebSi saqarTvelos 1997 wlis TebervalSi nato-s generaluri
mdivani, xavier solana ewvia. igi pirispir, daxurul kars miRma
esaubra eduard SevardnaZes da sagareo saqmeTa da Tavdacvis min-
istrebs.
75
aseve, sagareo politikis am meore periods emTxveva
saqarTvelos Sesvla evropis sabWoSi, (1999w) rac saqarTvelos
evropuli orientaciis mniSvnelovan aRiarebad Sefasda.
76
1999
wlis aprilSi saqarTvelom, azerbaijanTan da uzbekeTTan erTad,
uari ganacxada dsT-s koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis xelSekruleba-
Si monawileobis gagrZelebaze.
77
ukve 2002 wlis noemberSi nato-s
praRis samitze SevardnaZe sajarod acxadebda misi qveynis sur-
vilze gawevrianebuliyo aliansSi.
78
1995 wlidan saqarTvelos sagareo politikaSi mTavar amocanas
sagareo safrTxis, ruseTis dabalanseba warmoadgenda. am miznis
miRwevas SevardnaZe dasavleTisagan usafrTxoebis garantiebis
miRebiT cdilobda, rac kaspiis navTobis mimarT dasavleTis sax-
elmwifoebis, ufro konkretulad ki aSS-is interesis zrdis pro-
cess emTxveoda.
79
amave periodSi aSS-is mxardaWeriT iwyeba ori
73
noember-dekemberi 2001. gv. 9).
74
The Georgian Chronicle (Monthly Bulletin, Vol.4. No. 2. February. 1995.).
75
The Georgian Chronicle (Monthly Bulletin, February. 1997.).
76
saqarTvelos politikuri landSafti: miRwevebi, gamowvevebi da perspeq-
tivebi (red. gia nodia, alvaro pinto sqoltbaxi. CIPDD. 2006. gv. 41).
77
Khatuna Giorgadze, Russia: Regional Partner or Aggressor? (The Review of International
Affairs, Vol 2. No. 1 Autumn 2002. p. 68).
78
Eric A. Miller, Smelling the Roses: Eduard Shevardnadzes End and Georgias Future
(Problems of Post-Communism, Vol. 51, No. 2, March/April 2004, p. 12).
79
deg. bruno kopitersi da robert legvoldi (red) Tbilisi. 2006. gv. 223).
Tavi meoTxe
37
navTobsadenis - baqo-sufsisa da baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis navTob-
sadenebis proeqtebis ganxorcieleba.
80
mTeli es periodi, ruseT-saqarTvelos urTierTobebSi erTg-
vari daZabulobiT gamoirCeoda. Tumca am daZabulobam piks CeC-
neTis meore samxedro kampaniis dawyebisas miaRwia. oqsana antonen-
ko Tvlis, rom gansxvavebiT CeCneTis pirveli omisagan, romelmac
ruseT-saqarTvelos poziciebi erTmaneTs daaxlova, meore omma,
piriqiT, maT Soris arsebuli krizisis gaRrmavebas Seuwyo xeli,
romelmac piks 2002 wlis zafxulSi pankisSi ganviTarebuli mov-
lenebis Sedegad miaRwia.
81
gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovania, rom pankisis movlenebis ganx-
ilva 11 seqtembris teroristuli aqtebis fonze moxdes. niu-iorkSi
ganxorcielebuli teroristuli aqtebis Semdeg aSS-is dainter-
eseba samxreT kavkasiis regionis mimarT mxolod navTobis faq-
toriT aRar Semoifargleba da ukve aSS regions ganixilavda,
rogorc erT-erT mniSvnelovan komponents axlo aRmosavleTisa
da anti-teroristul politikaSi.
82
amave periods emTxveva anti-
teroristul kampaniaSi ruseTis mxardaWera aSS-sadmi, rac 2002
wels putinsa da buSs Soris deklaraciis
83
gaformebiT dagvir-
gvinda, sadac orive prezidenti aRiarebda maT saerTo interess
centraluri aziisa da samxreT kavkasiis regionebSi stabiluro-
bis da teritoriuli mTlianobis SesanarCuneblad.
84
Tumca, sul
male cxadi gaxda, rom ruseTi terorizmis winaaRmdeg brZolis
faqtoris gamoyenebas sakuTari interesebisaTvis, CeCneTTan da
pankisTan mimarTebaSi gegmavda.
85
80
deg. bruno kopitersi da robert legvoldi (red) Tbilisi. 2006. gv. 223).
81
oqsana antonenko, gayinuli gaurkvevloba: ruseTi da konfliqti afxaze-
Tis irgvliv. (saxelmwifoebrioba da usafrTxoeba: saqarTvelo vardebis~ rev-
oluciis Semdeg. bruno kopitersi da robert legvoldi. (red) Tbilisi. 2006. gv.
301).
82
Brenda Shaffer, US Policy (In: The Caucasus: Challenge for the EU. Chaillot Papers. No. 65.
December 2003. p.57).
83
deklaraciis sruli teqsti ix. http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/05/
20020524-2.html.
84
Taras Kuzio, CIS States Confront Questions Concerning Strategic Alignments (Eurasia
Insight, 07/01/02 http://ww.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav070102.shtml.
85
2001 wlis 11 seqtembris teroristuli aqtebis Semdeg prezidenti putini
erT-erTi pirveli iyo vinc esaubra aSS-is prezidents da terorizmis winaaRmdeg
brZolaSi mxardaWera aRuTqva. ruseTis sagareo politikis am manevrTan mimarTe-
baSi ix. John OLoughlin, Gearid Tuathail, Vladimir Kolossov, A Risky Westward Turn? Putins
9-11 Script and Ordinary Russians (Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 56, No. 1. Jan., 2004, pp. 3-34.).
saqarTvelo
38
1999-2000 wlebSi daaxloebiT 7000 CeCenma ltolvilma SeaRwia
pankisis xeobaSi.
86
moskovi gamudmebiT amtkicebda, rom mSvidobi-
ani moqalaqeebis garda xeobaSi CeCeni teroristebic imyofebod-
nen. ruseTis imdroindeli sagareo saqmeTa ministri igor ivanovi
imasac ki varaudobda, rom xeobas osama bin-ladeni afarebda
Tavs.
87
amis Sedegad araerTxel dairRva saqarTvelos sahaero
sivrce ruseTis samxedro TviTmfrinavebis mier. ruseTis Tav-
dacvis ministri sergei ivanovi ambobda, rom raki saqarTvelos
ar Seswevda Zala pankisSi wesrigi daemyarebina, maSin, teroriz-
mis am `budis~ ganadgureba ruseTis samxedro Carevis gziT unda
momxdariyo.
88
ruseTTan gauaresebuli urTierTobebis fonze,
rodesac safrTxe ruseTis mxridan realuri iyo, SevardnaZe aaq-
tiurebs mis diplomatias dasavleTTan mimarTebaSi da special-
ur samTavrobo komisias avalebs 2002 wlis noembrisaTvis pro-
gramis momzadebas, nato-s samxedro, politikur da ekonomikur
sferoebSi integraciisaTvis.
89
TiTqmis amave periodSi putini
akeTebs gancxadebas, rom igi mzadaa saqarTvelos `daexmaros~ da
erToblivi, qarTul-rusuli samxedro operacia ganaxorcielos
pankisis xeobaSi teroristebis ganeitralebis mizniT. Tumca,
qarTulma mxarem ruseTis es SemoTavazeba uaryo da ganacxada,
rom igi winaaRmdegi iyo romelime sagareo Zalis Carevisa panki-
sis sakiTxebSi.
90
SevardnaZe ki, piriqiT, pankisis krizisis pirobeb-
Si daxmarebas aSS-s sTxovs.
91
swored am periods emTxveva
saqarTveloSi e.w. wvrTnisa da aRWurvis amerikuli programis
wamowyeba, romlis farglebSic qarTuli jaris gawvrTnis mizniT
daaxloebiT 200-mde amerikeli samxedro instruqtori Camovida
saqarTveloSi.
*
ruseTis uaryofiTma reaqciam am faqtze pirveli
86
Tracey C. German, The Pankisi Gorge: Georgias Achilles Heel in its Relations with
Russia? (Central Asian Survey, 23(1), March 2004. p. 30).
87
Andrew McGregor, Ricin Fever: Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi in the Pankisi Gorge (Terrorism
Monitor, Vol. 2, Issue 24, December 16. 2004. p. 11).
88
Ian Traynor. Russia Angry at U.S. War Plan for Georgia. ( The Guardian, February 22. 2002)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story0,3604,654020,00.html.
89
Tracey C. German, Faultline or Foothold? Georgias Relations with Russia and the USA
(Conflict Studies Research Center. January 2004. p. 3).
90
iqve . . . gv. 4
91
RFE/RL Newsline, 20,25, 27 February 2002.
am SemTxvevasTan mimarTebaSi unda aRiniSnos, rom es ori movlena erTmaneTs

ubralod ki ar daemTxva, aramed mT Soris pirdapiri korelacia arsebobda.
(TeoriisaTvis damTxvevasa da korelacias Soris gansxvavebas udidesi mniSvnelo-
ba aqvs.).
Tavi meoTxe
39
bzari gamoaCina vaSingtonsa da moskovs Soris post 9-11 perio-
dis megobrobaSi.
92
Tumca, ruseTi iZulebuli gaxda Segueboda
amerikeli samxedroebis saqarTveloSi Camosvlas. acnobierebda,
ra rom agresiul politikas im etapze veRar gaagrZelebda, ruseT-
ma ukan daixia. 2002 wlis oqtomberSi SevardnaZe da putini imazec
ki SeTanxmdnen, rom or qveyanas Soris daZabuli urTierTobebis
normalizeba unda moexdinaT.
93
SevardnaZis es gadawyvetileba sagareo agresoris dabalanse-
bis mcdelobis klasikuri SemTxveva iyo. am SemTxvevas kargad xs-
nis safrTxis wonasworobis Teoria. gansxvavebiT dsT-sagan, rode-
sac saqarTvelom safrTxis wyarosTan Sekra kavSiri, pankisis kriz-
isis pirobebSi saqarTvelom sagareo safrTxis winaaRmdeg dabal-
ansebis strategia airCia. amis mizezi ramdenimea. pirveli, miuxe-
davad imisa, rom saqarTvelo am periodSic sust saxelmwifoTa
kategorias miekuTvneboda, politikuri situacia qveynis SigniT
bevrad ufro stabiluri iyo, vidre 1990-iani wlebis pirvel naxe-
varSi. da meore, gansxvavebiT dsT-Si gawevrianebis periodisa, 2002
wels aSS-is interesebi saqarTvelosTan mimarTebaSi gamokveTili
iyo da saqarTvelos hyavda mokavSire, romelic mas sagareo sa-
frTxis dabalansebaSi daexmareboda. da bolos, Tu davapiri-
spirebT erTmaneTs ZalTa wonasworobisa da safrTxis wonasworo-
bis Teoriebs, am ukanasknelis gamarjveba saxezea. saqarTvelom
ufro susti, geografiulad axlos mdebare da agresiuli saxelm-
wifos dabalanseba amjobina, ufro Zlieri da geografiulad Sors
myofi saxelmwifos meSveobiT.
94

mkvlevarTa garkveuli nawilis SexedulebiT SevardnaZem misi
mmarTvelobis bolo wels kidev erTxel scada sagareo poli-
tikuri kursis cvlileba ruseTis sasargeblod. Tumca es mcde-
loba iseTi aSkara ar yofila, rogorc adreul wlebSi. sagareo
politikuri kursis am cvlilebas bruno kopitersi aSS-is usa-
frTxoebis politikis orientaciis cvlilebas ukavSirebs. 2003
wels qveyanaSi dawyebuli Sida politikuri krizisis pirobebSi
aSS-ma misi simpaTiebi aSkarad `vardebis revoluciis~ Sedegad
92
Thomas De Vaal, Reinventing the Caucasus (World Policy Journal, Vol. XIX, No. 1,
Spring 2002. p. 55).
93
Putin, Shevardnadze Soften Russia-Georgia Discrepancies (RFE/RL Security Watch, Vol. 3
No. 35, October 8. 2002).
94
aSS-is samxedro biujeti bevrad metia vidre momdevno 20 saxelmwifosi er-
Tad aRebuli. ix. cxrili 1. gv. 47.
saqarTvelo
40
mosuli xelisuflebis sasargeblod mimarTa.
95
SevardnaZis mier ruseTisaken mzeris mipyroba SeiZleba iTqvas,
rom anomaliaa safrTxis wonasworobis TeoriisaTvis.
96
realu-
rad am periodSi ruseTidan momavali safrTxis done iseTive rCe-
boda, rogorc gasul wlebSi. arc aSS-is daintereseba Secvlila
saqarTvelosa da regionis mimarT. Sesabamisad sagareo poli-
tikuri kursis am ukanaskneli koreqtirebis mcdelobas ukeTesad
xsnis e.w. `zebalansis Teoria~ (Omnibalancing)
*
vidre safrTxis bal-
ansis. es iyo SemTxveva, rodesac SevardnaZem sagareo Zalis imed-
iT Sida politikuri sistemidan arsebuli safrTxis dabalanseba
scada.
97
2003 wlis `vardebis revoluciis~ Sedegad SevardnaZe iZule-
buli gaxda gadamdgariyo. 2004 wlis ianvris saprezidento
arCevnebis Semdeg axalma xelisuflebam dauyovnebliv gamoTqva
ruseTTan urTierTobebis normalizebis survili. sainauguracio
sityvaSi prezidentma saakaSvilma aRniSna, rom is `megobrobis
xels uwvdis ruseTs~ da rom misi politika àrc prorusulia da
95
bruno kopitersi, saqarTvelos usafrTxoebis modeli: centri-periferia
deg. red. bruno kopitersi da robert logveldi. Tbilisi. 2006. gv. 497).
96
Tumca es anomalia safrTxis wonasworobis Teoriis sisusteze sulac ar
miuTiTebs. sul mcire or arguments moviSvelieb Cemi mosazrebis dasadasture-
blad: (1) es anomalia kvlevis im doneze ar iCens Tavs, romelzec safrTxis wonas-
worobis Teoria aris fokusirebuli; (2) es procesi dasrulebuli ar yofila.
Sesabamisad, moTxovo Teorias axsnas movlena, romelic ar dasrulebula da
aravin icis rogor ganviTardeboda arasamarTliani iqneba.
gansxvaveba zebalansis da safrTxis balansis Teoriebs Soris kvlevis do-

neebis SerCevaSia. kerZod, im SemTxvevaSi, roca safrTxis balansis TeoriaSi sax-
elmwifoebi saerTaSoriso sistemaSi arsebul safrTxeebze reagireben, zebal-
ansis Teoria kvlevis ori, saxelmwifo da saerTaSoriso sistemis doneebis inte-
grirebas axdens (anu gare da Sida safrTxeebis kombinacia ganapirobebs kavSirSi
Sesvlis motivacias) da kargi Teoriis erT-erTi mTavari Rirebulebis momWir-
neobis kriteriums veranairad ver akmayofilebs.am faqts TviTon devidic ac-
nobierebs, rodesac erTmaneTs adarebs mis Teoriasa da safrTxis da ZalTa wonas-
worobis Teoriebs. ix. Steven R. David, Explaining Third World Alignment (World Politics,
Vol. 43, No. 2. Jan., 1991, p. 238.). kavSirebis Sesaxeb daaxloebiT msgavs Teoriul
models gvTavazoben miSel barneti da jek levi. ix. Michael N. Barnett and Jack S.
Levy, Domestic Sources of Alliances and Alignments: The Case of Egypt, 1962-73 (International
Organization, Vol. 45. No. 3. Summer 1991. pp. 369-395).
97
Tavi meoTxe
41
arc proamerikuli, aramed, proqarTuli~.
98
ruseTma Tavdapirv-
el etapze saqarTvelos axal xelisuflebasTan mimarTebaSi molo-
dinis politika amjobina. prezidenti putini saakaSvilis am gancx-
adebas sakmaod dadebiTad Sexvda da ganacxada, rom igi imeds
itovebda, rom axali xelisufleba SeZlebda or qveyanas Soris
arsebuli tradiciuli megobrobis aRdgenas da rom ruseTs
saqarTvelosTan mimarTebaSi sxva mizani arc amoZravebda.
99
Tum-
ca ruseTis pozicia realurad ar Secvlila. amas adasturebs is
faqtic, rom putinis mier zemoaRniSnuli gancxadebis gakeTebidan
ori dRis Semdeg, ruseTis oficialurma pirebma oTxmxrivi mo-
laparakebebi gamarTes afxazeTis, `samxreT oseTisa~ da aWaris
liderebTan, rasac sakmaod didi gaRizianeba mohyva TbilisSi.
100
vardebis revoluciis Semdeg ruseT-saqarTvelos urTierTo-
bebi safuZvlianad garTulda 2004 wlis maisSi `samxreT oseTSi~
humanitarul-samxedro moqmedebebis dawyebis Semdgom. saakaSvi-
lis xelisuflebam, romelmac mSvidobianad gadaWra aWaris sak-
iTxi, mTeli misi yuradReba `samxreT oseTze~ gadaitana da Tvli-
da, rom aWaris warmatebis ganmeoreba `samxreT oseTSic~ mox-
erxdeboda.
101
Tumca, gansxvavebiT aWaris SemTxvevisagan, xelisu-
flebam ver SeZlo samxedro dapirispirebis Tavidan arideba,
rasac msxverpli mohyva. qarTuli mxare iZulebuli gaxda kon-
fliqtis zonidan sajariso SenaerTebi gamoeyvana da daesrulebi-
na samxedro konfrontacia.
102
am strategiam ver imuSava da araTu
xeli Seuwyo konfliqtis mogvarebas, aramed kidev ufro gaarTu-
la manam arsebuli situacia da ruseT-saqarTvelos urTierTo-
bebis safuZvliani gauresebac ganapiroba.
ruseTs aseve aRizianebs saqarTvelos swrafva nato-Si.
vladimer putini, iseve rogorc bevri sxva politikosi ruseTSi,
daufaravad acxadebda, rom marTalia mas ar aqvs komunizmis aRd-
98
deg. red. bruno kopitersi da robert logveldi. Tbilisi. 2006. gv. 248)
99
Jean-Christophe Peuch, Russia, US Redistribute Pawns On Caucasus Chessboard After A
Year Of Change, (Eurasia Insight, 12/29/03).
100
Seth Mydans, Secessionists From Georgia Hold Talks With Russia, (New York Times,
December 2, 2003).
101
Georgia: Avoiding War in South Ossetia (International Crisis Group, Europe Report No.
159, Tbilisi-Brussels, November 2004. p. 1).
102
Ghia Nodia, Europeanization and (Not) Resolving Secessionist Conflicts (Journal of Ethno-
politics and Minority Issues in Europe. Issue 1, 2004. p. 9).
saqarTvelo
42
genis survili, Tumca sinanuls ki grZnobs sabWoTa kavSiris daS-
lis gamo.
103
saakaSvilis xelisuflebis erT-erT mTavar sagareo
politikur samiznes qveynis nato-Si gawevrianeba warmoadgens. am
mimarTulebiT sakmaod seriozuli nabijebis gadadgma moxda. 2004
wels saqarTvelo SeuerTda nato-sTan individualuri part-
niorobis samoqmedo gegmas (IPAP). 2006 wlis 21 seqtembridan
saqarTvelo nato-sTan intensiuri dialogis formatiT Tanam-
Sromlobs. yovelive amis pararelurad kidev ufro iZabeboda
ruseT-saqarTvelos urTierTobebi. or qveyanas Soris isedac
daZabuli urTierTobebi kidev ufro garTulda 2006 wlis seqtem-
berSi, rodesac saqarTvelom ruseTis oTxi jaSuSi daakava.
104
amis
sapasuxod ruseTma gaiwvia misi elCi, xolo sergei ivanovma ga-
nacxada, rom `danaSaulma saqarTveloSi saxelmwifo ganzomile-
ba SeiZina~.
105
ruseTi swored am periodidan aaqtiurebs mis Zala-
dobriv diplomatias saqarTvelosTan mimarTebaSi, rac
ekonomikuri blokadiTa da sanqciebiT gamoixata.
106
Tu SevajamebT saqarTvelos sagareo politikas vardebis rev-
oluciis Semdeg, SegviZlia davaskvnaT, rom saqarTvelo aSkarad
sagareo safrTxis dabalansebis strategias irCevs. gansxvavebiT
SevardnaZis droindeli sagareo politikisagan, rodesac qveya-
na dabalansebis mxolod sagareo resurss eyrdnoboda, saakaSvi-
lis xelisufleba dabalansebis ormag strategias - sagareo da
Sida strategiebs mimarTavs. sagareo dabalansebis miRwevas igi
aSS-Tan mokavSireobiT da nato-Si gawevrianebis miswrafebiT ax-
orcielebs, xolo Sida dabalansebas qveynis samxedro Tavdacvisu-
narianobis amaRlebiT.
107
`vardebis revoluciis~ Semdgomi saqarTvelos sagareo poli-
tikis zedapiruli mimoxilvac ki cxadyofs safrTxis wonasworo-
103
Ivars Indans, Relations of Russia and Georgia: Developments and Future Prospects (Baltic
Security & Defence Review,Volume 9, 2007, p.137).
104
Arkady Ostrovsky, Georgia Detains Four Russian Officers on Spying Charges (Financial
Times, September 28, 2006).
105
Neil Buckley, Moscow Recalls Georgia Envoy as Spies Held (Financial Times, Septem-
ber 28, 2006).
106
ruseTis mier saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg ganxorcilebuli sanqciebis sruli
CamonaTvalisaTvis ix. saqarTvelos usafrTxoebis analizis centris veb-gver-
dis sainformacio resursebis ganyofileba. http://www.gfsis.org/gsac/eng/point.php
107
Sida dabalansebis misaRwevad saakaSvilis xelisuflebam Tavdacvis sfer-
os reforma da misi samxedro Zalebis nato-s standartebTan SesabamisobaSi moy-
vana umTavres prioritetad aqcia.
Tavi meoTxe
43
bis Teoriis upiratesobas ZalTa wonasworobis TeoriasTan mima-
rTebaSi. saqarTvelo amjobinebs ufro Zlier saxelmwifosTan
mokavSireobas ufro agresiulis winaaRmdeg. Sesabamisad, ZalTa
wonasworobis Teoria, romelic mxolod Zlierebis cvladze
dayrdnobiT cdilobs axsnas aliansebis warmoqmnisa da mokav-
Sireebis SerCevis sakiTxi, ver iTvaliswinebs im mniSvnelovan faq-
torebs, romelsac gadawyvetilebis mimRebni mxedvelobaSi iReben,
rodesac mokavSireebis SerCevas axdenen. safrTxe bevrad ufro
kompleqsuri fenomenia da mis gasazomad mxolod Zlierebis cv-
ladi sakmarisi ar aris. amasve miuTiTebs saakaSvilis gancxadeba,
romelic man 2005 wlis TebervalSi parlamentSi misi yovelwli-
uri moxsenebisas gaakeTa: `saqarTvelos saqme aqvs msoflioSi yve-
laze Zlier da yvelaze agresiul, SesaZloa ara yvelaze Zlier,
magram udavod yvelaze agresiul ZalasTan~.
108
daskvna
saqarTvelos sagareo politikis ganviTarebis etapebis ganzo-
gadebam cxadyo safrTxis wonasworobis Teoriis upiratesoba
ZalTa wonasworobis TeoriasTan mimarTebaSi. aseve TvalnaTliv
gamoCnda, rom saxelmwifoebi dabalansebis strategias amjobin-
eben mitmasnebas. mitmasneba iSviaTi movlenaa da mxolod Sesabam-
isi garemo pirobebis arsebobis SemTxvevaSi airCeva saxelmwifos
mier: Tu saxelmwifo sustia, Tu sxva mokavSireebi ar hyavs da Tu
saxelmwifo Tvlis, rom safrTxis wyaro, romelsac igi etmasneba
daSoSminebadia. saqarTvelos dsT-Si gawevrianeba mitmasnebis
klasikuri SemTxveva iyo da im periodisaTvis samive zemoT CamoTv-
lili garemoeba arsebobda. Tumca dsT-Si Sesvlis miuxedavad Se-
vardnaZe TandaTanobiT aaqtiurebs diplomatias dasavleTTan mi-
marTebaSi. 1995 wlidan saqarTvelos sagareo politikis mTavar
samiznes sagareo agresoris dabalanseba warmoadgenda. 2002 wlis
pankisis krizisis pirobebSi, gansxvavebiT dsT-Si gawevrianebis
SemTxvevisagan, saqarTvelom mitmasnebas dabalanseba amjobina,
radgan mokavSire, romelic mas safrTxis dabalansebaSi daexmare-
108
cit. robert legvoldi, problemis dasma (saxelmwifoebrioba da usafrTx-
oeba: saqarTvelo vardebis~ revoluciis Semdeg. red. bruno kopitersi da rob-
ert logveldi. Tbilisi. 2006. gv. 26) am gancxadebaSi saakaSvili, ra Tqma unda,
ruseTs gulisxmobda.
saqarTvelo
44
boda ukve arsebobda aSS-is saxiT. pankisis krizisma garda imisa,
rom TvalnaTliv warmoaCina safrTxis wonasworobis Teoriis amx-
snelobiTi upiratesoba ZalTa wonasworobis TeoriasTan mima-
rTebaSi, aseve dagvarwmuna agresiuli ganzraxvebis cvladis
damoukidebel rolSi. kerZod, Cven am cvladis operacional-
izaciisas vivaraudeT,
*
rom Tu cvladi sworad iyo SerCeuli,
maSin erTi saxelmwifos mier meore saxelmwifos mimarT agresiu-
li politikis gatarebas agresoris dabalansebis an Sesabamisi
pirobebis arsebobis SemTxvevaSi masTan mitmasnebis tendenci-
isTvis unda Seewyo xeli. pankisis krizisis pirobebSi swored ase
moxda. ruseTis mxridan gamokveTilad agresiuli politikis ga-
tarebam gazarda saqarTvelos mxridan agresoris dabalansebis
motivacia da mcdeloba.
da bolos, `vardebis revoluciis~ Semdgomi periodis saqarTve-
los sagareo politikis mTavar qvakuTxeds sagareo safrTxis
dabalansebis tendencia warmoadgens. Tu ganvazogadebT saqarTve-
los sagareo politikas 2003 wlidan dRemde, udavoa, rom
saqarTvelo geografiulad axlos mdebare, agresiuli saxelmwi-
fos dabalansebas saerTaSoriso sistemis yvelaze gavlenian sax-
elmwifosTan mokavSireobiT da nato-Si gawevrianebis miswrafe-
biT cdilobs.
ix. gv. 13-14.

Tavi meoTxe
Tavi mexuTe
azerbaijani
damoukidebeli azerbaijanis sagareo politikaSi pirobiTad
sami ZiriTadi periodis gamoyofaa SesaZlebeli. pirveli faza,
romelic 1992-1993 periods moicavs, abulfaz elCibeis preziden-
tobas emTxveva. meore faza ki heidar alievis prezidentobiT iw-
yeba da 2003 wlamde grZeldeba.
109
azerbaijanis sagareo poli-
tikis mesame periodi 2003 wlidan, ilham alievis xelisuflebaSi
mosvliT iwyeba da dRevandel dRemde grZeldeba.
damoukideblobis mopovebidan azerbaijans saTaveSi prorusu-
li, komunisturi partiis yofili pirveli mdivani aiaz muTali-
bovi Caudga. Tumca misi mmarTveloba Sida politikuri situaci-
isa da somxeTTan saomari moqmedebebis fonze didxans ver gagr-
Zelda. 1992 wlis TebervalSi xojalis tragediis Semdeg muTali-
bovi iZulebuli gaxda gadamdgariyo.
110
imave wlis ivnisSi azer-
baijanis prezidentad saxalxo frontis lideri abulfaz elCibei
airCies. unda aRiniSnos, rom mTiani yarabaRis konfliqtSi xoja-
lis SemTxveva erTgvar aTvlis wertils warmoadgens, radganac
swored amis Semdeg gardaiqmna partizanuli omi Ria saomar mo-
qmedebebad azerbaijanisa da somxeTis samxedroebs Soris.
111
analitikosTa mniSvnelovani nawilis SexedulebiT, abulfaz
elCibeim ver gaTvala mezobeli didi saxelmwifoebis interesebi
regionTan mimarTebaSi da seriozuli geopolitikuri Secdomebi
dauSva, rac mas prezidentobis fasad daujda. elCiebis mier
109
Shireen T. Hunter, The Evolution of the Foreign Policy of the Transcaucasian States (In:
Crossroads and Conflict: Security and Foreign Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Gary
Bertsch, Cassady Craft, Scott A. Jones and Michael Beck (Eds), Routledge 2000. p. 39).
110
R. Hrair Dekmejian, Hovann H. Simonian, Troubled Waters: Geopolitics of the Caspian
Region (I.B. Tauris&Co Ltd. 2003. p. 61).
111
Thomas Goltz, Letter from Eurasia: The Hidden Russian Hand (Foreign Policy, No. 92,
Autumn, 1993, p. 101).
46
Tavidanve proTurquli sagareo politikuri orientaciis aRebam
iranisa da ruseTis gaRizianeba gamoiwvia. amavdroulad unda
aRiniSnos, rom azerbaijani iyo pirveli postsabWoTa saxelmwifo,
romelmac warmatebulad moaxerxa sakuTari teritoriidan rusu-
li jarebisa da sasazRvro nawilebis gayvana.
112
elCibei aseve ewi-
naaRmdegeboda ruseTis moTxovnas azerbaijanis dsT-Si gawevri-
anebis Sesaxeb, amtkicebda, ra rom azerbaijanis dsT-Si Sesvla
ruseTis gavlenis sferoSi dabrunebas niSnavda.
113
im periodSi
ruseTi azerbaijanis damoukideblobisa da saxelmwifoebriobis
erT-erT mTavar safrTxed miiCneoda.
114
amave periodSi seriozulad garTulda azerbaijanis urTier-
Tobebi iranTan. amis mizezebi orive saxelmwifos, azerbaijanis
da iranis qmedebebSi SeiZleba vipovoT. elCibei xelisuflebaSi
mosvlis dRidan daufaravad acxadebda, rom mis erT-erT mTavar
sagareo politikur mizans `gayofili azerbaijanis~ gaerTianeba
Seadgenda, romelic xuT weliwadSi unda momxdariyo.
115
im peri-
odSi erTiani azerbaijanis idea azerbaijanis erovnuli ideis
integraluri nawili gaxda.
116
marTalia elCibeis am gancxadebeb-
ma ver SeZlo iranel azerbaijanelebSi nacionalisturi ganwy-
obebis gaaqtiurebis gamowveva, rac man udavod gamoiwvia, is iyo,
rom iranma azerbaijani misi teritoriuli mTlianobis realur
safrTxed aRiqva.
117
iranis mxridan ki or qveyanas Soris keTilmezobluri urTier-
Tobebis ganviTarebas samma mTavarma mizezma SeuSala xeli. pirve-
li, yarabaRis omis dros da mis Semdegac irani samxedro daxmare-
bas ara Siitur azerbaijans, aramed qristianul somxeTs uwevda.
118
cnobili faqtia, rom iraneli moxaliseebi yarabaRis omSi somxe-
112
Elkhan Nuriyev, Post-September 11 Regional Geopolitics: Azerbaijan and New Security
Environment in the South Caucasus (Connections, The Quarterly Journal, Vol 1, No.3 July 2002.
p.14).
113
Brenda Shaffer, Borders and Brethren: Iran and the Challenge of Azerbaijan Identity (Belfer
Center for Science and International Affairs. 2002. p.165).
114
iqve . . . gv. 647.
115
azerbaijanis teritoriis or nawilad gayofa 1828 wels ruseTsa da irans
Soris dadebuli TurqmanCais sazavo xelSekrulebis safuZvelze moxda. iranSi
dRes daaxloebiT 25-30 milioni eTnikurad azerbaijaneli cxovrobs, maSin roca
azerbaijanis mosaxleoba 8 milionia.
116
Arif Yunusov, Islam in Azerbaijan (Baku. 2004. p. 188).
117
Emil Souleimanov and Ondrej Ditrych, Iran and Azerbaijan: A Contested Neighborhood
(Middle East Policy, Vol. XIV, No. 2, Summer 2007. p. 104).
118
ix. Svante Cornell, Iran and the Caucasus (Middle East Policy, Vol. 5, No.4 January 1998.).
Tavi mexuTe
47
Tis mxareze ibrZodnen.
119
irans surda, rom azerbaijani CarTuli
yofiliyo konfliqtSi somxeTTan, radgan arastabiluri azer-
baijani naklebad mimzidveli iqneboda iranis azerbaijanelebi-
saTvis.
120
iranis amgvarma qmedebebma erTiorad gazarda iranis,
rogorc safrTxis wyaros aRqma azerbaijanSi. meore, iranma az-
erbaijanSi xeli Seuwyo proislamur aqtiurobas, rogoric iyo
religiuri skolebis, wignebis maRaziebis da kulturuli centre-
bis gaxsna, misionerebis gagzavna da aseve islamuri fundamental-
izmis waqezeba, gansakuTrebiT azerbaijanis samxreT nawilSi ira-
nis sazRvarTan axlos, sadac mosaxleoba umetesad Siituri is-
lamis mimdevari iyo.
121
da bolos, kaspiis zRvis samarTlebrivi
statusis sakiTxi da bunebrivi resursebis ganawileba SedarebiT
mogvianebiT gaxda is Tema, romelmac or saxelmwifos Soris Tan-
amSromlobiTi urTierTobebis SesaZleblobas seriozuli sa-
frTxe Seuqmna.
122
Tumca, elCibeis mmarTvelobis periodSi Zalian gaaqtiurda
azerbaijanis urTierTobebi TurqeTTan. TurqeTTan Tavidanve
kargi urTierTobebis dawyeba ramdenime faqtoriT iyo ganpirobe-
buli. pirveli, elCibei Tvlida, rom azerbaijanis erovnuli ide-
is SeqmnaSi misTvis misabaZi sekularuli TurqeTi da ara isla-
muri irani unda yofiliyo. erovnuli frontis ideologiur mi-
drekilebebze saubrisas elCibei Riad acxadebda, `Cven pirvel
rigSi varT Turqebi da Semdeg muslimebi~.
123
elCibei imasac ki
ambobda, rom azerbaijani da TurqeTi iyo èrTi eri, ori saxelm-
wifo~.
124
garda amisa, TurqeTi dasavleTTan damakavSirebel xi-
dadac miiCneoda. meore, TurqeTi iyo pirveli saxelmwifo,
romelmac azerbaijanis damoukidebloba aRiara da mesame, yara-
119
Lasha Tchantouridze, The Three Colors of War: Russian, Turkish and Iranian Military
Threat to the South Caucasus (Caucasian Review of International Affairs, Vol, 2 (1). Winter
2008. p. 8).
120
Brenda Shaffer, Irans Role in the South Caucasus and Caspian Region: Diverging Views of
the U.S. and Europe (Iran and Its Neighbors, SWP Berlin. 2003. p.19).
121
Arzu Geybullayeva, Is Azerbaijan Becoming a Hub of Radical Islam? (Turkish Policy
Quarterly, Vol. 6. No.3. Fall 2007. p. 114).
122
Ayca Ergun, International Challenges and Domestic Preferences in the Post-Soviet Political
Transition of Azerbaijan (Perspectives on Global Development and Technology, Volume 2, Issue 3-
4. 2003. p. 648).
123
Areyh Wasserman, A Year of Rule by the Popular Front of Azerbaijan (In: Muslim Eurasia:
Conflicting Legacies. Roi Yaacov (ed), FRANK CASS & CO. LTD, 1995 p.150).
124
Zeyno Baran, The Caucasus: Ten Years After Independence (The Washington Quarterly,
25:1, Winter 2002. p. 226).
azerbaijani
48
baRis konfliqtTan mimarTebaSi TurqeTis mier azerbaijanis
poziciebis mxardaWeram or saxelmwifos Soris mokavSireobi-
saTvis safuZvliani da xelsayreli pirobebi Seqmna.
125
Tumca 1993 wels, mas Semdeg rac elCibeim ver moaxerxa sazoga-
doebisaTvis micemuli misi ori mTavari dapirebis - qveyanaSi
demokratiuli reformebis gatareba da mTiani yarabaRis kon-
fliqtSi gamarjveba - Sesruleba, qveyana politikur da
ekonomikur qaosSi CaiZira. unda aRiniSnos, rom elCibeis waru-
mateblobis Sida politikur mizezTagan gansakuTrebiT aRniSv-
nis Rirsia mis mier daSvebuli ramdenime Secdoma. erT-erTi maT-
gani is iyo, rom xelisuflebaSi mosvlis Semdeg mas saparlamento
arCevnebi ar Cautarebia, SeinarCuna Zveli sakanonmdeblo orga-
no, sadac Zveli da axali (erovnuli frontis) warmomadgenlebi
Tanabrad inawilebdnen adgilebs. garda amisa, man ver SeZlo Zvel
biurokratiasTan SeTanxmeba da maTi ZiriTadi nawili gamoucde-
li kadrebiT iqna Canacvlebuli.
126
rac Seexeba sagareo urTier-
Tobebs, elCibeis mTavrobis gamokveTilad proTurqulma, anti-
iranulma da nawilobriv antirusulma sagareo politikam daaz-
arala azerbaijani gansakuTrebiT mTiani yarabaRis konfliqt-
Tan mimarTebaSi.
127
aRsaniSnavia, rom mkveTrad proTurqulma
orientaciam da amis Sedegad, iranisa da ruseTis gaRizianebam
TurqeTic ki daafiqra, romelic acnobierebda, rom mis xelT ar-
sebuli resursebiT igi konkurencias namdvilad ver gauwevda
ruseTs da irans.
128
garda amisa, azerbaijanis totalurma marcx-
ma somxeTTan omSi da aseve elCibeis mTavrobis gamokveTilad ko-
rufciulma xasiaTma seriozuli dartyma miayena panTurqizmis
ideas.
129
amas emateboda isic, rom elCibeim qveynis SigniTac ki
ver Seafasa Turquli kulturuli memkvidreoba da ara mxolod
125
Ayca Ergun, International Challenges and Domestic Preferences in the Post-Soviet Political
Transition of Azerbaijan (Perspectives on Global Development and Technology, Volume 2, Issue 3-
4. 2003. p. 647).
126
Leila Alieva, Reshaping Eurasia: Foreign Policy Strategies and Leadership Assets in Post-
Soviet South Caucasus (Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies, Working Paper
Series, Winter 1999-2000. p. 22).
127
128
Mazrin Mehdiyeva, Azerbaijan and its Foreign Policy Dilemma (Asian Affairs, Vol XXXIV,
No, III, November 2003. p. 274).
129
Hooman Peimani, Failed Transition, Bleak Future? War and Instability in Central Asia and
the Caucasus (Praeger Publishers. 2002. p. 114).
Tavi mexuTe
49
iranma da ruseTma, aramed qveynis SigniT mcxovrebma eTnikurma
umciresobebmac (1990-iani wlebis dasawyisSi daaxloebiT mTeli
mosaxlebis 14 procenti) ki gariyulad igrZnes Tavi.
130
am qao-
turi Sida da sagareo politikuri situaciis Sedegad generalma
surat huseinovma wamoiwyo samxedro gadatrialeba elCibeis
winaaRmdeg, rac saboloo jamSi misi xelisuflebidan CamoSore-
biT dasrulda.
131
1993 wlis ivnisSi elCibei, romelic azerbaija-
nis sazogadoebis mier miamit da gamoucdel politikosad miiC-
neoda, CamoSorebul iqna xelisuflebas da misi adgili yofilma
komunisturma liderma heidar alievma daikava.
132
azerbaijanis sagareo politika elCibeis mmarTvelobis peri-
odSi ramdenime daskvnis gakeTebis saSualebas gvaZlevs. pirveli,
elCibeis mier azerbaijanidan rusuli samxedro nawilebis gayva-
na, misi winaaRmdegoba azerbaijanis dsT-Si gawevrianebis sakiTx-
isadmi da misi sagareo politika, romelic TurqeTze dayrdno-
biT da dasavleTis mxardaWeris imediT cdilobda ruseTis, ira-
nis da somxeTis dabalansebas, calsaxad miuTiTebs im faqtze, rom
saxelmwifoebi sagareo safrTxeebis winaaRmdeg dabalansebis
strategias amjobineben mitmasnebas. es faqtebi kidev erTxel us-
vams xazs naSromis Teoriul nawilSi gamoTqmul mosazrebas da-
balansebis strategiis upiratesobisa mitmasnebis strategiasTan
mimarTebaSi. rac Seexeba, ZalTa wonasworobisa da safrTxis wonas-
worobis Teoriebs Soris upiratesobas, unda aRiniSnos, rom mi-
uxedavad im faqtisa, rom ruseTis, iranis da somxeTis aliansi
ZlierebiT aRemateboda TurqeT-azerbaijanis kavSirs, elCibeis
xelisufleba mainc safrTxis dabalansebis strategiiT xelmZRv-
anelobda da ara mxolod Zlierebis. safrTxis, romelic sxvadasx-
va aqtorebidan modioda da gansxvavebuli datvirTva hqonda.
somxeTi aRiqmeboda, rogorc saxelmwifo, romelic uSualod
daemuqra azerbaijanis teritoriul mTlianobas da misi teri-
toriis daaxloebiT mexuTedi miitaca yarabaRis konfliqtSi.
irani, romelic safrTxes warmoadgenda, rogorc islamuri sax-
130
Kaweh Sadegh-Zadeh, Irans Strategy in the South Caucasus (Caucasian Review of
International Affairs, Vol 2(1), Winter 2008. p.4).
131
Houman Sadri, Elements of Azerbaijan Foreign Policy (Journal of Third World Studies,
Vol. XX, No.I 2003. p. 183).
132
Elkhan Nuriyev, Geopolitical Breakthrough and Emerging Challenges: The Case of the
South Caucasus (Perceptions, Journal of International Affairs, Vol. VI, No. 2. June-July 2001.
p.3).
azerbaijani
50
elmwifo da aseve, rogorc somxeTis mokavSire. da bolos ruseTi,
romelic safrTxe iyo, rogorc somxeTis mokavSire da rogorc
saxelmwifo, romelsac garkveuli pretenziebi hqonda azerbaijan-
Tan kaspiis zRvis samarTlebriv statusTan dakavSirebiT.
133
xelisuflebaSi mosvlis Semdeg gamoCnda, rom heidar alievi
bevrad ufro pragmatuli politikosi iyo, vidre misi winamorbe-
di. mis mTavar sagareo politikur strategiad ruseTTan da iran-
Tan urTierTobebis normalizeba iqca, rac miznad isaxavda Se-
darebiT dabalansebuli gaexada azerbaijanis sagareo politi-
ka.
134
1993 wlis seqtemberSi alievi Cavida moskovSi da xeli moaw-
era dsT-s qartias da aseve SeuerTda koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis
xelSekrulebas.
135
miuxedavad im faqtisa, rom sawyis etapze azer-
baijanis dsT-Si gawevrianeba ruseTTan daTmobaze wasvlad Sefas-
da, unda aRiniSnos, rom am gadawyvetilebis ukan alievi ufro
pragmatuli gaTvlebiT xelmZRvanelobda. alievi Tvlida, rom
am nabijis Semdeg ruseTi mas teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgena-
Si daexmareboda. garda amisa, koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis xelSek-
rulebasTan mierTebis Semdeg alievma moiTxova, rom xelSekrule-
ba aqtivirebuli yofiliyo mis wevrebTan (am SemTxvevaSi somxeT-
Tan) da yarabaRis konfliqtTan mimarTebaSi.
136
unda aRiniSnos,
rom miuxedavad im faqtisa, rom alievs surda ruseTTan urTier-
Tobebis normalizeba, igi mainc ewinaaRmdegeboda azerbaijanis
ruseTis gavlenis sferoSi dabrunebas. kerZod, alievma uari Tqva
bevri iseTi samxedro-politikuri xelSekrulebis xelmoweraze,
rac azerbaijanis moqmedebis Tavisuflebas SezRudavda. garda
amisa, alievma uari Tqva ruseTis moTxovnaze, rom rusuli
133
ix. Kamyar Mehdiyoun, Ownership of Oil and Gas Resources in the Caspian Sea (The
American Journal of International Law, Vol. 94, No. 1. Jan., 2000, pp. 179-189), aseve, Suha
Bolukbasi, The Controversy over the Caspian Sea Mineral Resources: Conflicting Perceptions,
Clashing Interests (Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 50, No. 3, May, 1998, pp. 397-414).
134
135
koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis xelSekruleba 1992 wels xelmowerili iqna 6
qveynis mier ruseTi, somxeTi, yazaxeTi, yirgizeTi, tajikeTi da uzbekeTi da
ZalaSi Sevida 1994 wels 5 wlis vadiT. marTalia azerbaijani xelSekrulebas 1993
wels SeurTda, Tumca misi ratificireba ar mouxdenia. ix. Rasim Musabekov, Russia-
Azerbaijan: Relations in Theory and Practice (Central Asia and the Caucasus, No. 3, 2000).
136
Andrey Zagorski, Regional Structures of the Security Policy within the CIS (In: Roy Allison
and Christoph Bluth, (eds) Security Dilemmas in Russia and Eurasia. London: RIIA, 1998. p.
284).
Tavi mexuTe
51
samxedro nawilebi ganTavsebuli yofiliyo iran-azerbaijanis
sazRvarze.
137
azerbaijanis dsT-Si Sesvla safrTxis wyarosTan mitmasnebis
klasikuri magaliTi iyo. ramdenad marTldeba am SemTxvevaSi mit-
masnebasTan mimarTebaSi gamoTqmuli mosazrebebi? Tu kvlav mivu-
brundebiT im pirobebs, romelTa arsebobis SemTxvevaSic irCevs
saxelmwifo mitmasnebis strategias, maSin SegviZlia davaskvnaT,
rom winaswari Teoriuli varaudebi gamarTlda. saxelmwifo mit-
masnebis strategias irCevs maSin, roca (1) sustia, (2) sxva mokav-
Sire ar hyavs, (3) roca Tvlis, rom am nabijiT safrTxis wyaros
daSoSmineba SeiZleba. im periodSi azerbaijanis, iseve, rogorc
saqarTvelos SemTxvevaSi, samive CamoTvlili garemoeba arsebob-
da. somxeTTan saomari moqmedebebis da Sida dapirispirebebis
fonze azerbaijani susti saxelmwifos klasikuri SemTxveva iyo.
garda amisa, alievs kargad esmoda, rom im etapze dasavleTis, ker-
Zod aSS-is mxardaWeris imedi naklebad unda hqonoda, xolo, mx-
olod TurqeTis imedad igi dabalansebis politikas ruseTis
winaaRmdeg ver gaatarebda.
138
da bolos, alievma dsT-Si gawevri-
anebiT ruseTis imperiuli ambiciebic gaiTvaliswina, sagareo agre-
soric daaSoSmina da amis paraleluradve dasavleTTan urTier-
TobebisaTvis stabiluri niadagic Seamzada.
139
Tumca, dsT-Si gaw-
evrianebis miuxedavad, alievi did daTmobebze ar wasula ruseT-
Tan.
140
igi agrZelebda rusuli samxedro nawilebis azerbaijanis
137
Gary Bertsch, Crossroads and Conflict: Security and Foreign Policy in the Caucasus and
Central Asia (Routledge 2000. p. 41).
138
Tu ratom ar unda hqonoda alievs aSS-is mxardaWeris imedi, amaze sul mcire
ori faqti metyvelebs. pirveli, im periodSi aSS-is interesebi regionTan
mimarTebaSi jer kidev saTanadod gamokveTili ar iyo. da meore, aSS-is mxridan
azerbaijanis mTavrobisaTvis pirdapiri daxmarebis aRmoCena institucionalu-
radac iyo gamoricxuli. yarabaRis omis msvlelobisas azerbaijanis mier som-
xeTze ganxorcielebuli blokadis sapasuxod, somxuri lobis zewolis Sedegad
kongresma gamosca e.w. Tavisuflebis mxardaWeris aqtis 907 Sesworeba, romelic
ukrZalavda aSS-s azerbaijanisTvis nebismieri saxis pirdapiri daxmarebis
gawevas. azerbaijansa da aSS-s Soris urTierTobebis ganviTarebis etapebis
Sesaxeb ix. Shahla Balakishiyeva, The Role of Haydar Aliyev in the US-Azerbaijani Relations
(The Journal of Turkish Weekly Opinion, 14 March, 2008. http://www.turkishweekly.net/index.php).
139
Leila Alieva, Reshaping Eurasia: Foreign Policy Strategies and Leadership Assets in Post-
Soviet South Caucasus (Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies, Working Paper
Series, Winter 1999-2000. p. 24).
140
Jim Macdougall, Russian Policy in the Transcaucasian Near Abroad: The Case of
Azerbaijan (Demokratizatsiya, Vol. 5. No. 1. Winter 1997. p. 93).
azerbaijani
52
teritoriaze ganTavsebis moTxovnisadmi winaaRmdegobas da mi-
uxedavad imisa, rom dasTanxmda ruseTis, rogorc mediatoris
rols yarabaRis konfliqtSi, man uari ganacxada rusuli samSvi-
doboebis konfliqtis zonaSi ganTavsebaze. da bolos, miuxeda-
vad im faqtisa, rom bevri dasavleTSi Tvlida, rom alievi ufro
prorusul orientacias aiRebda, igi ruseTTan, dsT-Si Sesvlis
miuxedavad, dialogis aRdgenaze Sors ar wasula. im periodSi,
ruseTi alievis sagareo politikas zedmetad damoukidebladac
ki miiCnevda.
141
momdevno wlebSi azerbaijansa da ruseTs Soris urTierTobebi
kidev ufro daiZaba kaspiis zRvis samarTlebrivi statusis sak-
iTxze SeuTanxmeblobis gamo.
142
1997 wels ormxrivi urTierTobe-
bis erT-erT mTavar dartymad iqca e.w. dumis skandali, romlis
drosac gairkva, rom ruseTis samxedro nawilebma daaxloebiT
miliardi dolaris Rirebulebis iaraRi gadasces somxeTis
jars.
143
daZabulobam or saxelmwifos Soris elcinis preziden-
tobis dasrulebamde gastana da SedarebiT gaumjobesda putinis
xelisuflebaSi mosvlis Semdgom.
144
im periodSi bevri rusi ofi-
cialuri piri Tvlida, rom maTma agresiulma antiazerbaijanulma
politikam sxva araferi gamoiwvia, Tu ara am strategiuli qvey-
nis gaucxoeba.
145
or saxelmwifos Soris urTierTobis daZabuli
fazidan gamoyvanis mcdelobis niSnad iqca putinis viziti baqoSi
2001 wlis ianvarSi. am vizitis farglebSi alievma moaxerxa ru-
seTTan savizo reJimis sakiTxis gadadeba, aseve ruseTma uari Tqva
mis moTxovnaze, rom iran-azerbaijanis sazRvarze ganTavsebuli
yofiliyo rusuli samxedro nawilebi. Tumca amave garigebis far-
glebSi alievi daTanxmda ruseTs, rom mieqiravebina misTvis gabal-
as saradaro sadguri 10 wlis vadiT, risTvisac ruseTi wliurad 2
141
Elkhan Nuriyev, Conflicts, Caspian Oil and NATO (In: Crossroads and Conflict: Security
and Foreign Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Gary Bertsch, Cassady Craft, Scott A. Jones
and Michael Beck (Eds), Routledge 2000. p. 143).
142
143
Fariz Ismailzade, Azerbaijans Tough Foreign Policy Choices (UNISCI Discussion Papers,
October 2004. p. 5).
144
iqve . . . 5.
145
Thomas De Waal, Reinventing the Caucasus (World Policy Journal, Vol. XIX, No 1,
Spring 2002, p.55).
Tavi mexuTe
53
milion dolars gadauxdida azerbaijans.
146
ase rom, alievis
mmarTvelobis bolo wlebSi ruseT-azerbaijanis urTierTobebi
SedarebiT gaumjobesda.
alievma aseve scada iranTan urTierTobebis normalizeba, rad-
gan igi Tvlida, rom iranTan ukeTesi urTierTobebi mas pirvel
rigSi yarabaRis konfliqtis azerbaijanis sasargeblod gadaw-
yvetaSi daexmareboda.
147
Sesabamisad, azerbaijansa da irans Soris
urTierTobebi alievis mmarTvelobis pirvel wlebSi SedarebiT
pozitiuri mimarTulebiT ganviTarda, vidre elCibeis
mmarTvelobisas.
148
gaumjobesebuli urTierTobebis pirvel niSnad 1993 wlis oq-
tomberSi baqoSi iranis imdroindeli prezidentis rafsanjanis
viziti iqca. vizitis farglebSi 14-mde SeTanxmebis xelmowera
moxda or saxelmwifos Soris.
149
momdevno wels amas mohyva alievis
sapasuxo viziti TeiranSi, Tumca es viziti Sedga mas Semdeg, rac
alievma jer oficialuri vizitebi daasrula TurqeTsa da sxva
wamyvan dasavlur saxelmwifoebSi, rac naTlad asaxavda, rom az-
erbaijanis mTavrobisTvis iranTan urTierTobebi yvelaze pri-
oritetuli ar iyo.
150
Tumca simSvidem iran-azerbaijanis urTierTobebSi did xans ver
gastana. 1995 wels ganviTarebulma movlenebma safuZveli gamoa-
cala or qveyanas Soris pozitiuri urTierTobebis ganviTarebas.
1994 wlis 11 noembers azerbaijanma iranTan xeli moawera xelSek-
rulebas, romlis Tanaxmadac igi irans aZlevda 25 procents saer-
TaSoriso konsorciumSi, romelic miznad azerbaijanis navTobis
eqspluatacias da transportirebas isaxavda.
151
Tumca ramdenime
Tvis Semdeg, aSS-is daJinebuli moTxovniT, iranis saxelmwifo nav-
Tobis kompania gamoricxuli iqna da xelSekruleba Sewyda.
152
am
146
Nailia Sohbetqizi, Pragmatism Guides Russian-Azerbaijan Deal Making (Eurasia Insight,
1/11/02).
147
148
iqve . . .
149
Gareth M. Winrow, Azerbaijan and Iran (In: Regional Power Rivalries in the New Euarsia:
Russia, Turkey and Iran. Alvin Z. Rubenstein and Oles M. Smolansky. (Eds) M.E. Sharpe, Inc.
1995 p.97).
150
iqve . . .
151
Emil Souleimanov and Ondrej Ditrych, Iran and Azerbaijan: A Contested Neighborhood
(Middle East Policy, Vol. XIV, No. 2, Summer 2007. p. 104).
152
iqve . . .
azerbaijani
54
SemTxvevam srulad gamoacala safuZveli or qveyanas Soris sta-
biluri urTierTobebis ganviTarebas. marTalia, alievma sakuTari
prezidentoba iranTan urTierTobebis normalizebis ganzraxviT
daiwyo, or qveyanas Soris urTierTobebi mianc daZabuli rCebo-
da.
153
ormxriv urTierTobebSi arsebulma daZabulobam piks 2001
wels miaRwia, rodesac iranis sabrZolo gemebma ieriSi miitanes
azerbaijanis xomaldze, romelic kvleviT samuSaoebs axor-
cielebda kaspiis zRvis samxreT nawilSi.
154
am incidentis Semdeg
iranis samxedro TviTmfrinavebma araerTxel daarRvies azer-
baijanis sahaero sivrce.
155
azerbaijanis mTavrobis mier iranis
amgvari qmedeba azerbaijanis sahaero sivrcisa da teritoriuli
wylebis sazRvrebis darRvevad da sagareo aqtoris mxridan az-
erbaijanis winaaRmdeg pirdapir agresiad iqna Sefasebuli.
156
am
krizisis pirobebSi azerbaijanma daxmarebisaTvis ankaras da vaS-
ingtons mimarTa, ris Sedegadac vaSingtonma samxedro eqsperte-
bi gamoagzavna azerbaijanSi kaspiis zRvaze usafrTxoebis uzrun-
velyofisa da azerbaijanis sazRvao nawilebis gawvrTnis
mizniT.
157
kaspiis krizisi da azerbaijanis reaqcia iranis agresiul gan-
zraxvebze kidev erTxel adasturebs safrTxis wonasworobis
Teoriis amxsnelobiT upiratesobas ZalTa wonasworobis Teori-
asTan mimarTebaSi. safrTxis aRqmis pararelurad saxelmwifoebi
arsebuli safrTxis dabalansebis an masTan mitmasnebis strate-
gias mimarTaven. rac ufro didia safrTxe an misi aRqma miT ufro
izrdeba safrTxis wyarosTan an mis winaaRmdeg kavSirSi Sesvlis
mcdeloba da piriqiT, rac ufro naklebia safrTxis aRqma, miT
ufro naklebia kavSirSi Sesvlis motivacia.
158
kaspiis krizisis
153
Bertsch, Cassady Craft, Scott A. Jones and Michael Beck (Eds), Routledge 2000. p.42).
154
October 2004. pp. 5-6).
155
Ariel Cohen, Irans Aggressive Moves in Caspian Basin Challenge International Economic
and Security Interests (Eurasianet. 8/14/01 http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/business/articles/
eav081401.shtml).
156
Mohammad-Reza Djalili, Iran and the Caucasus: Maintaining Some Pragmatism
(Connections, The Quarterly Journal, Vol. 1. No. 3 July 2002. p. 50).
157
Stephen Blank, US Military in Azerbaijan, to Counter Iranian Threat (Central Asia-
Caucasus Institute Analyst, 04/10/2002).
158
Dan Reiter, Crucible of Beliefs: Learning, Alliances and World Wars (Cornell University
Press. 1996. p. 47).
Tavi mexuTe
55
pirobebSi azerbaijanma arsebuli safrTxis dabalanseba scada
ufro Zlieri saxelmwifos meSveobiT, rac pirdapir ewinaaRmde-
geba ZalTa wonasworobis Teoriis mTavar daSvebas. azerbaijanma
aSkarad safrTxis dabalansebis strategia amjobina Zlierebis da-
balansebas, radgan am SemTxvevaSi dabalanseba ganxorcielda ara
mxolod Zlierebis winaaRmdeg, aramed safrTxis, romelic am
konkretul situaciaSi sul mcire ori faqtoris kombinaciiT iyo
ganpirobebuli: geografiuli siaxloviT da agresiuli ganzrax-
vebiT.
ruseTTan da iranTan daZabuli urTierTobebis fonze alievi
aaqtiurebs diplomatias dasavleTTan mimarTebaSic. acnobiereb-
da ra rom mTiani yarabaRis konfliqtis gadasaWrelad aucile-
beli iyo ruseT-somxeTis aliansis Sekaveba, azerbaijanisaTvis
prioritetuli gaxda ekonomikuri da politikuri kavSirebis gaaq-
tiureba dasavleTTan, gansakuTrebiT ki aSS-Tan da nato-sTan.
159
1990-iani wlebis Sua periodidan azerbaijani aqtiurad Tanam-
Sromlobs nato-sTan. 1994 wels azerbaijani CaerTo nato-s part-
nioroba mSvidobisaTvis programaSi. 1999 wels ki pirvelad mi-
iRo monawileoba nato-s samSvidobo operaciebSi kosovoSi.
160
2000
wels didi xnis molaparakebebis Sedegad azerbaijani evropis sa-
bWos wevri gaxda, rac postkomunistur epoqaSi azerbaijanis pro-
dasavluri orientaciis erT-erT mTavar miRwevad iqna Sefasebu-
li.
161
rac Seexeba aSS-Tan urTierTobebs, sawyis etapze masze did
gavlenas axdenda 907 Sesworeba da somxuri lobis zewola kon-
gresze. amavdroulad, aSS-is dainteresebac azerbaijanis navTob
resursebiT iyo ganpirobebuli. miuxedavad im faqtisa, rom
Tavisuflebis mxardaWeris aqtis 907 Sesworeba ukrZalavda aSS-
is mTavrobas pirdapiri samxedro da politikuri daxmarebis aR-
moCenas azerbaijanisaTvis, aSS-is ekonomikuri interesebidan ga-
momdinare, bevri amerikuli navTobkompania CaerToazerbaijanis
navTobis mopovebisa da transportirebis saqmeSi. realuri gar-
datexa or saxelmwifos Soris urTierTobebSi moxda 11 seqtem-
bris teroristuli aqtebis Semdeg, rodesac aSS-is daintereseba
159
Sabit Bagirov, Azerbaijans Strategic Choice in the Caspian Region (In: The Security of the
Caspian Sea Region. Gennady Chufrin (Ed), Oxford University Press. 2001. p. 179).
160
iqve . . . gv. 4.
161
October 2004. p.4).
azerbaijani
56
azerbaijaniTa da mTlianad regioniT mxolod navTobis sakiTx-
iT aRar Semoifargleba da antiteroristul kampaniaSi mniSvnelo-
vani adgili daiWira, rogorc proamerikulma islamurma saxelm-
wifom sasicocxlod mniSvnelovani geografiuli mdebareobiT.
162
gazrdili dainteresebis naTel gamovlinebad iqca 907 Sesworeb-
is gauqmeba kongresis mier 2001 wels.
163
2002 wels ki pirveli
ormxrivi amerikul-azerbaijanuli konsultaciebi Sedga baqo-
Si, romelic ZiriTadad kaspiis zRvis usafrTxoebasa da azer-
baijaneli samxedroebis gawvrTnaze iyo fokusirebuli.
164
heidar alievma, prezidentobis bolo wlebSi, moaxerxa met-na-
klebad dabalansebuli sagareo politikis gatareba sagareo aq-
torebTan, gansakuTrebiT ki ruseTTan mimarTebaSi. Tumca, am sax-
elmwifoebs Soris urTierTobebSi daZabuloba da ormxrivi un-
dobloba mainc rCeboda. janmrTelobis mdgomareobis gamo alievi
iZulebuli gaxda daesrulebina moRvaweoba, xolo misi adgili
2003 wlis oqtomberSi saprezidento arCevnebSi gamarjvebis Sede-
gad misma Svilma ilham alievma daikava.
ilham alievis sagareo politikuri kursi didad ar gansxvavde-
ba misi winamorbedisagan. Sesabamisad, azerbaijanis sagareo poli-
tikis am etaps detalurad ar ganvixilavT da mxolod zogad ten-
denciebze gavamaxvilebT yuradRebas. Tumca amavdroulad Sei-
Zleba iTqvas, rom dRevandeli prezidenti aranakleb gambedavad
TanamSromlobs dasavleTTan kerZod, ki aSS-Tan. aSS-is mxridan-
ac sakmaod did politikur, ekonomikur da samxedro daxmarebas
iRebs azerbaijani. 2004 wels vaSingtonma 10 milioni dolari
gamouyo azerbaijanis mTavrobas sazRvris usafrTxoebis uzrun-
velsayofad da mesazRvreebis gasawvrTnelad.
165
aseve aSS-ma da
azerbaijanma erToblivi samxedro wvrTnebi Caatares kaspiis zR-
vaSi azerbaijanis flotis da samxedro mezRvaurebis gawvrTnis
mizniT.
166

162
Leyla Shamchiyeva, Azerbaijan in the U.S. Interests (The Journal of Turkish Weekly
Opinion, March 21, 2008. http://www.turkishweekly.net/index.php).
163
Martha Brill Olcott, U.S. Policy in the South Caucasus (Connections, The Quarterly
Journal, Vol, 1. No.3 July 2002. p.61).
164
iqve . . . gv. 62.
165
United States Signs Agreement with Azerbaijan to Help Ex-Soviet Republic to Strengthen
its Borders (Associated Press, January 3. 2004).
166
Sevindzh Abdullayeva, Victor Shulman, U.S. Azerbaijan Begin 10-Day Naval Exercises,
(Itar-TASS News Service, January 26. 2004).
Tavi mexuTe
57
ilham alievis xelisuflebis mTavar sagareo politikur sam-
iznes mTiani yarabaRis konfliqti da somxeTTan urTierTobebi
warmoadgens. Tumca am mimarTulebiT seriozuli da xelSesaxebi
Zvrebi jer ar momxdara. alievis gancxadebiT, azerbaijani 13 wlis
ganmavlobaSi cdilobda konfliqtis diplomatiuri gzebiT mow-
esrigebas da momdevno 13 weli lodins aRar apirebs.
167
konfliq-
tis mSvidobianad dauregulireblobis SemTxvevaSi azerbaijani
samxedro moqmedebebsac ar gamoricxavs somxeTis winaaRmdeg.
168
azerbaijans dResdReobiT msoflioSi erT-erTi yvelaze mzardi
samxedro biujeti aqvs. ilham alievis gancxadebiT azerbaijanis
samxedro biujeti bolo oTxi wlis ganmavlobaSi sul mcire rva-
jer gaizarda. azerbaijanis gamalebuli militarizacia usafrTx-
oebis dilemis faqtors kidev ufro aRrmavebs somxeTTan da kon-
fliqtis mSvidobiani gziT mowesrigebis SesaZleblobasac amcir-
ebs.
azerbaijanis urTierTobebi ruseTTan da iranTan garkveul-
wilad gaumjobesda, ris naTel dadasturebadac iqca prezident
putinis viziti baqoSi 2006 wlis oqtomberSi.
169
Tumca, miuxeda-
vad am urTierTobebis gaumjobesebisa, am saxelmwifoebs Soris
undobloba jer kidev rCeba.
daskvna
mas Semdeg, rac mimovixileT azerbaijanis sagareo politikis
ganviTarebis etapebi da ZiriTadi prioritetebi ramdenime daskv-
na SeiZleba gakeTdes. pirveli, Tu azerbaijanis sagareo poli-
tikis ganviTarebis etapebs gavyvebiT vnaxavT, rom elCibeis
mmarTvelobis periodSi sagareo safrTxis dabalansebis strate-
gia gamokveTilad upiratesi iyo mitmasnebasTan mimarTebaSi.
elCibei, romelic azerbaijanis mTavar sagareo safrTxeebad mi-
iCnevda somxeTs, ruseTs da irans da maT Soris arsebul kavSirs,
cdilobda, am safrTxeebis dabalansebis mizniT TurqeTisa da
dasavleTis mxardaWera moepovebina. heidar alievis xelisufle-
167
Thomas De Waal, Arms Races in the Caucasus (Internationale Politik, Journal of German
Council on Foreign Relations, Fall Issue 3, Vol. 8, 2007. p. 70).
168
We must be ready to the armed resolution of the conflict and we are ready for it (Today.
Az. Politics. http://www.today.az/news/politics/43497.html).
169
Azerbaijan Frustrates Russias Bid to Control Caucasus Energy Grid (Eurasianet. Business
and Economics. 3/14/06. http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/business/articles/eav031406.shtml).
azerbaijani
58
baSi mosvlis Semdeg viTareba erTgvarad icvleba. alievi, romel-
ic bevrad ufro pragmatuli politikosi gamodga, vidre misi
winamorbedi, acnobierebda, ra ruseTis da iranis rols yarabaRis
konfliqtSi, cdilobda SedarebiT dabalansebuli gaexada azer-
baijanis sagareo urTierTobebi. azerbaijanis dsT-Si Sesvla mit-
masnebis klasikuri SemTxveva iyo. Tumca, alievma dsT ufro prag-
matuli miznebisaTvis gamoiyena, xolo 1999 wels datova kidevac
koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis xelSekruleba. im periodSi alievi
imasac kargad acnobierebda, rom 907 Sesworebis da somxuri lo-
bis mier kongresze ganxorcielebuli zewolis pirobebSi, aSS-Tan
mokavSireoba ruseTis, iranis da somxeTis kavSiris dabalansebis
mizniT naklebad realisturi strategia iyo. ramdenad xsnis
heidar alievis mmarTvelobis periods safrTxis wonasworobis
Teoria da naSromis Teoriul nawilSi gamoTqmuli mosazreba da-
balansebis strategiasTan mimarTebaSi? erTi SexedviT, heidar
alievis mmarTvelobis periodis azerbaijanis sagareo politika
sakmaod rTuli SemTxvevaa TeoriisTvis. Tumca, aqve unda aRiniS-
nos, rom Teoriis amxsnelobiTi unaris Semowmebis erT-erTi vali-
duri gza swored, rom iseTi SemTxvevebis (rTuli SemTxvevebis)
analizia, romelic, erTi SexedviT, Teoriis amxsnelobiT Car-
Coebs scdeba. kvlevis Teoriul nawilSi aRvniSneT, rom saxelmwi-
foTa mier dabalansebis mcdelobis zrda pirdapir korelacia-
Sia safrTxis aRqmis zrdis xarisxTan. anu rac ufro didia sa-
frTxe, miT ufro didia safrTxis wyaros dabalansebis an Sesabam-
isi garemo pirobebis arsebobis SemTxvevaSi masTan mitmasnebis
motivacia. sawyis etapze ruseTTan da iranTan gaumjobesebuli
urTierTobebi iyo is ZiriTadi faqtori, ramac misca saSualeba
alievs, rom SedarebiT dabalansebuli sagareo politikuri kur-
si aeRo. Tumca rogorc ki kaspiis krizisis pirobebSi, irani re-
alurad daemuqra azerbaijans samxedro qmedebebiT kaspiis zRva-
Si, maSinaTve gamoikveTa dabalansebis motivacia. kaspiis krizisi
kidev erTxel usvams xazs naSromis or mTavar Teoriul varauds.
pirveli, rom saxelmwifoebi sagareo safrTxis zrdis paralelu-
rad mis dabalansebas amjobineben, vidre masTan mitmasnebas. da
meore, safrTxis wonasworobis Teoria upiratesia ZalTa wonas-
worobis TeoriasTan mimarTebaSi, radgan azerbaijanma aSS-s, saer-
TaSoriso sistemis yvelaze Zlier saxelmwifos mimarTa daxmare-
bisaTvis geografiulad axlos mdebare da agresiuli saxelmwi-
Tavi mexuTe
59
fos dabalansebis mizniT.
bunebrivia, azerbaijanis sagareo politikaSi dRes sagareo
safrTxis gare dabalansebis mcdeloba SedarebiT naklebad
gamokveTilia, vidre saqarTvelos SemTxvevaSi. Tumca aqac sa-
frTxis wonasworobis Teoria gvcems pasuxs. saqarTvelo dRes
ruseTs ufro did safrTxed miiCnevs, vidre azerbaijani ruseTs
da irans maT Soris gaumjobesebuli urTierTobebis fonze.
170
Tu
Teoriis logikas da warsul gamocdilebas gavyvebiT (kaspiis kriz-
iss vgulisxmobT) maSin SegviZlia vivaraudoT, rom iranisa da
ruseTis mxridan agresiuli qmedebebis SemTxvevaSi azerbaijani
gaaZlierebs dabalansebis mcdelobas, iseve rogorc man es kaspi-
is zRvis krizisis pirobebSi gaakeTa. rac Seexeba somxeTs, am qvey-
anasTan mimarTebaSi azerbaijani dabalansebis Sida strategiebs
eyrdnoba da ekonomikuri zrdis xarjze samxedro SesaZleblobebs
aumjobesebs.
170
SegviZlia Tamamad vTqvaT, rom postsabWoTa periodSi, e.w. axlo
sazRvargareTSi, ruseTis agresiis ZiriTadi nawili swored saqarTveloze
modioda.
azerbaijani
Tavi meeqvse
somxeTi
damoukideblobis aRdgenis Semdeg somxeTis sagareo politikis
ganviTarebaSi pirobiTad or etaps gamoyofen. pirveli etapi ter-
petrosianisa da somxeTis erovnuli moZraobis mmarTvelobis pe-
riodidan iwyeba da 1997 wlamde grZeldeba. meore etapi ki rob-
ert qoCarianis xelisuflebaSi mosvlas emTxveva da 2008 wlis
dasawyisamde grZeldeba.
171
unda aRiniSnos, rom miuxedavad ori prezidentis gansxvavebu-
li sagareo politikuri xedvebisa, somxeTis sagareo politika
gamokveTilad ruseTTan mokavSireobaze iyo orientirebuli. mar-
Talia garkveuli niuansebi arsebobda ori lideris sagareo urT-
ierTobebSi, Tumca sagareo politikis sakvanZo sakiTxebi, rogor-
icaa usafrTxoeba da mokavSireebis SerCeva orive lideris SemTx-
vevaSi ucvleli rCeboda.
172
somxeTis sagareo politikis ganviTarebis adreul etapzeve
gamoikveTa ramdenime faqtori, romelic dResac gansazRvravs am
saxelmwifos ZiriTad prioritetebs sagareo urTierTobebSi. maT
Soris gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovania somxeTis geografiuli izo-
lirebuloba ZiriTadad mezobel saxelmwifoebTan (azerbaijan-
Tan da TurqeTTan) diplomatiuri urTierTobebis da zRvaze gasas-
vlelis arqonis gamo. aseve istoriuli gamocdileba, rac udavod
171
naSromi mxolod petrosianisa da qoCarianis mmarTvelobis wlebis ganxilviT
Semoifargleba, radgan 2008 wlis saprezidento arCevnebis Semdeg sakmaod mcire droa
gasuli imisaTvis, rom sarqisianis mmarTvelobis periodi calke etapad gamovyoT. garda
amisa, sarqisianis prezidentobis am mcire monakveTis zedapiruli dakvirvebac ki cxadyofs,
rom somxeTis sagareo politikur prioritetebs cvlilebebi ar ganucdia. ix. Sergei Blagov,
Armenia Seeks Stronger Ties with Russia (Eurasia Insight, 3/27/08. http://www.eurasianet.org/
departments/insight/articles/eav032708a.shtml).
172
Taline Papazian, From Ter-Petrossian to Kocharian: Explaining Continuity in Armenian
Foreign Policy, 1991-2003 (Demokratizatsiya, Spring 2006, Vol. 14, Issue 2, p. 236).
61
did gavlenas axdens da gansazRvravs somxeTis urTierTobebs gan-
sakuTrebiT TurqeTTan.
173
da bolos yarabaRis konfliqti, romel-
ic dResac yvelaze mniSvnelovani faqtoria am saxelmwifos sa-
gareo politikur prioritetebSi.
somxeTis erovnul moZraobas, romelic qveyanas saTaveSi 1990
wels Caudga, somxeTis sagareo urTierTobebis ganviTarebis re-
vizionistuli xedva edo safuZvlad, romelic Tavidanve Tvli-
da, rom TurqeTsa da somxeTs Soris arsebul mZime istoriul
gamocdilebas xeli ar unda SeeSala am or qveyanas Soris prag-
matuli urTierTobebis ganviTarebisaTvis.
174
am mosazrebas ram-
denime motivi edo safuZvlad: (1) TurqeTi somxeTis mezobeli,
didi saxelmwifoa, rac gulisxmobs, rom somxeTma masTan SeTanxme-
bas unda miaRwios; (2) Tanamedrove TurqeTi didad gansxvavdeba
osmalTa imperiisagan da gansxvavebuli miznebi aqvs; (3) Tanamed-
rove TurqeTma uaryo panTurqizmisa da panislamizmis ideebi da
gamokveTilad evropuli orientacia aiRo.
175
garda amisa, yara-
baRis konfliqtis fonze somxeTis imdroindeli administracia
acnobierebda, rom Tu somxeTi SeZlebda TurqeTTan ekonomikuri
da savaWro urTierTobebis wamowyebas da TurqeTs evropasTan
damakavSirebel satranzito xidad gamoiyenebda, es xels Seuwy-
obda ara mxolod somxeTis geografiulad mowyvladi mdebareo-
bis efeqtebis Serbilebas, aramed droTa ganmavlobaSi genocidis
sakiTxis mogvarebasac gamoiwvevda.
176
ter-petrosiani da misi
administracia, gansakuTrebiT maTi mmarTvelobis pirvel wleb-
Si, swored am revizionistuli xedviT xelmZRvanelobda da
TurqeTTan urTierTobebis normalizebas erT-erT sagareo poli-
tikur prioritetad miiCnevda. petrosiani acnobierebda, rom am
173
dapirispirebam or ers Soris piks me-20 saukunis dasawyisSi miaRwia, rodesac
daaxloebiT or milionamde somexi mokles osmalTa imperiaSi. dRes sakmaod gavleniani
somxuri diaspora mTeli msoflios masStabiT moiTxovs 1915 wlis movlenebis genocidad
aRiarebas. TurqeTis mTavroba ki acxadebs, rom es movlenebi pirveli msoflio omis
Sedegad Seqmnili viTarebis gamo moxda da araferi aqvs saerTo somxebis winaaRmdeg
organizebul ZaladobasTan. ix. Anush Begoyan, National Concepts of Security and the Problem
of Integration in Transcaucasia (Iran and the Caucasus, 2006, Vol. 10 Issue 2, pp. 289-290).
174
175
iqve . . .
176
Joseph R. Masih, Robert O. Krikorian, Armenias Foreign Policy (In: Armenia: At the
Crossroads. OPA. 1999. p.98).
somxeTi
62
miznis miRweva genocidis aRiarebis moTxovnaze uaris TqmiT unda
dawyebuliyo. am mimarTulebiT ramdenime xelSesaxebi nabijic
gadaidga. petrosiani winaaRmdegi iyo genocidis aRiarebis moTx-
ovnis somxeTis damoukideblobis deklaraciaSi Cadebis.
177
Tum-
ca, sakanonmdeblo organos warmomadgenelTa umravlesoba da
aseve diasporis partiebi amgvari iniciativis winaaRmdeg gamov-
idnen. am partiebs, garda genocidis aRiarebis sakiTxisa, garkveu-
li teritoriuli pretenziebic hqondaT TurqeTTan.
178
im peri-
odSi, ufro nacionalisturad ganwyobili Zalebi miiCnevdnen, rom
genocidis sakiTxi somxeTis sagareo politikis integraluri naw-
ili unda yofiliyo da TurqeTTan urTierTobebi genocidis aRi-
arebis moTxovniT unda yofiliyo gansazRvruli.
179
ter-petro-
sianis revizionistul sagareo politikur xedvebs didi winaaRm-
degoba Sexvda, rogorc qveynis SigniT moRvawe partiebis mxri-
dan, aseve diasporis mxridanac. gansakuTrebiT aqtiuri am mxriv
diasporis warmomadgenlebi iyvnen. isini miiCnevdnen, rom somxe-
Tis urTierTobebi TurqeTTan ar SeiZleboda mowesrigebuliyo,
manam sanam TurqeTi ar aRiarebda genocids. gansxvavebiT di-
asporis warmomadgenlebisagan petrosiani da somxeTis erovnu-
li moZraoba Tvlida, rom TurqeTi aranair safrTxes ar uqmnida
somxeTs. Sesabamisad or saxelmwifos Soris urTierTobebis nor-
malizeba im periodSi somxeTis interesebSi Sedioda. petrosian-
is amgvarma strategiam nawilobriv imuSava kidevac. TurqeTi erT-
erTi pirveli saxelmwifo iyo, romelmac sabWoTa kavSiris daS-
lis Semdeg somxeTis damoukidebloba aRiara.
180
garda amisa, 1992
wels TurqeTma droebiT gaxsna kidevac sazRvari somxeTTan da
misca humanitaruli daxmarebis gatarebis SesaZlebloba.
181
imave
wels somxeTma xeli moawera SeTanxmebas TurqeTis mTavrobasTan,
romlis safuZvelze TurqeTi eleqtroenergias miawvdida somx-
eTs. Tumca, 1993 wels SeTanxmebis implementaciamde, baqodan da
177
Kamer Kasim, Armenias Foreign Policy: Basic Parameters of Ter-Petrosian and Kocharian
Era (Review of Armenian Studies, Volume I, Number 1, 2002, pp. 91-92).
178
iqve . . .
179
Arus Harutyunyan, Dual Citizenship Debates in Armenia: In Pursuit of National Identity
Since Independence (Demokratizatsiya, Vol. 14 Issue 2, Spring 2006, p. 287).
180
F. Stephen Larrabee, Ian O. Lesser, Turkish Foreign Policy in an Age of Uncertainty
(RAND 2003. p.106).
181
Joseph R. Masih, Robert O. Krikorian, Armenias Foreign Policy (In: Armenia: At the
Crossroads. OPA. 1999. p.98).
Tavi meeqvse
63
Sida opoziciis mxridan winaaRmdegobis pirobebSi, TurqeTis
mTavroba iZulebuli gaxda gaeuqmebina SeTanxmeba.
182
miuxedavad ter-petrosianis mier TurqeTTan urTierTobebis
mowesrigebis mcdelobisa, am process, garda Sida winaaRmdego-
bisa, rasac awydeboda somxeTis imdroindeli xelisufleba
opoziciisa da diasporis warmomadgenlebis mxridan, TurqeTis
mier gadadgmuli ramdenime nabijic abrkolebda. pirveli, Turqe-
Tis poziciam genocidis sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi xeli SeuSala or
qveyanas Soris stabiluri urTierTobebis ganviTarebas. meore,
yarabaRis omis msvlelobisas da mis Semdegac TurqeTis mier az-
erbaijanis poziciebis dacvam da somxeTis izolaciis mcdelo-
bam kidev ufro gaaRrmava is undobloba, romelic istoriuli
narativebiT ikvebeboda. da bolos, 1990-iani wlebis dasawyisSi,
TurqeTsa da azerbaijanSi panTurqizmis ideebis aRzevebam, dam-
atebiTi barieris roli Seasrula or qveyans Soris keTilme-
zobluri urTierTobebis ganviTarebaSi.
183
TurqeT-somxeTis urT-
ierTobebis Sefasebisas, Sejamebis saxiT unda aRiniSnos, rom mi-
uxedavad somxeTis pirveli administraciis mcdelobisa ganemux-
ta or qveyanas Soris arsebuli istoriulad mtruli urTierTo-
ba, xelSesaxebi Sedegebis miRweva am mimarTulebiT ver moxerxda.
momdevno wlebSi gaucxoeba or saxelmwifos Soris kidev ufro
gaRrmavda.
gansxvavebiT TurqeTisagan, somxeTis urTierTobebi mezobel
iranTan fsiqologiuri da istoriuli barierebis ararsebobis
fonze ufro dadebiTi mimarTulebiT ganviTarda. or saxelmwi-
fos Soris urTierTobebSi pozitiuri wvlili aseve ramdenime
strategiulma da ekonomikurma faqtormac Seitana. pirveli,
irans SeeZlo somxeTisaTvis garesamyarosTan damakavSirebeli
saxelmwifos funqcia Seesrulebina da amiT met-naklebad Seer-
bilebina TurqeTisa da azerbaijanis mier ganxorcielebuli
blokadis da izolirebulobis Sedegebi. meore, irani Tavidanve
sakmaod Rirebuli ekonomikuri partniori gaxda da rac yvelaze
mniSvnelovania, mas SeeZlo somxeTis energoresursebiT uzrun-
182
Scott A. Jones, Turkish Strategic Interests in the Caucasus ( In: Crossroads and Conflict:
Security and Foreign Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Gary Bertsch, Cassady Craft, Scott
A. Jones and Michael Beck (Eds), Routledge 2000. p. 62).
183
somxeTi
64
velyofa. mesame, iransac da somxeTsac msgavsi pozicia ekavaT
azerbaijanTan mimarTebaSi. somxeTi azerbaijans im periodSi misi
saxelmwifoebriobis mTavar safrTxed miiCnevda. irani ki, sul
mcire, damoukidebeli azerbaijanis arsebobis faqts, romelsac
gansakuTrebiT elCibeis mmarTvelobis periodSi, garkveuli ter-
itoriuli pretenziebi hqonda masTan, sakuTari usafrTxoebi-
saTvis mTavar safrTxed miiCnevda.
184
da bolos 1990-iani wlebis
dasawyisSi TurqeT-israelis kavSirma, rasac emateboda azer-
baijanis mWidro urTierTobebi israelTan, aseve gazarda iranis
mxridan somxeTTan mWidro urTierTobebis ganviTarebis motiva-
cia.
185
iransa da somxeTs Soris arsebuli samokavSireo urTier-
Tobebi, romelic kidev ufro gaRrmavda momdevno wlebSi, xazs
usvams im garemoebasac, rom religiuri solidaroba naklebad
mniSvnelovani faqtoria mokavSireebis SerCevis Sesaxeb gadaw-
yvetilebisas.
186
muslimurma, Siiturma iranma, acnobierebda ra
safrTxes Siituri azerbaijanis mxridan, qristianul somxeTs
gauwia daxmareba azerbaijanis winaaRmdeg.
amave periodSi aqtiurdeba somxeTis urTierTobebi dasavleT-
Tan, gansakuTrebiT ki aSS-Tan. Tumca am urTierTobebis mTavari
ganmsazRvreli ufro gavleniani somxuri diaspora iyo, vidre aSS-
is strategiuli interesebi somxeTTan mimarTebaSi.
187
diasporis
aqtiurobis Sedegad moxda kongresis mier Tavisuflebis mxardaW-
eris aqtis 907 Sesworebis miReba, romelic sakmaod didi xnis gan-
mavlobaSi gansazRvravda aSS-is urTierTobebis CarCoebs azer-
baijanTan mimarTebaSic.
Tumca somxeTis urTierTobebi dasavleTTan da ufro konkre-
tulad ki aSS-Tan garkveul niSnuls ver gascda. erT-erTi yve-
184
Elkhan Nuriyev, Post-September 11 Regional Geopolitics: Azerbaijan and the New Security
Environment in the South Caucasus (Connections, The Quarterly Journal, Vol.I, No.3, July 2002.
p.18).
185
186
es konkretuli SemTxveva garda imisa, rom miuTiTebs im faqtze, rom saxelmwifoebi
mokavSireebis SerCevisas pragmatuli da maTi usafrTxoebisaTvis misaRebi gaTvlebiT
xelmZRvaneloben, aseve warmoadgens gansakuTrebiT rTul SemTxvevas XX-saukunis 1990-
iani wlebis bolosaTvis gavleniani civilizaciaTa Sejaxebis TezisisaTvis. civilizaciaTa
Sejaxebis Tezisis sakmaod kargi kritikisaTvis ix. Stephen Walt, Building up New
Bogeymen (Foreign Policy, No. 106, 176-189. Spring, 1997).
187
ix. Gerard J Libaridian, Armenias Strategic Significance (In: Modern Armenia: People,
Nation, State. New Brunswik, New Jersey. 2004. pp.283-302).
Tavi meeqvse
65
laze mniSvnelovani sakiTxi, raSic somxeTisa da dasavleTis in-
teresebi da xedvebi ar emTxvevoda erTmaneTs es TurqeTis re-
gionuli rolis Sefaseba iyo. maSin roca aSS da zogadad dasav-
leTi TurqeTs im periodSi maT mTavar partniorad miiCnevdnen
da surdaT TurqeTis gavlenis gavrceleba kavkasiaSi, somxeTs am
sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi gansxvavebuli poziciebi gaaCnda.
188
aseve
sakiTxi, romelTan mimarTebaSic somxeTisa da dasavleTis xedve-
bi gansxvavdeboda, es iyo iranis roli regionSi. maSin roca aSS
cdilobda iranis izolacias da regionSi misi gavlenis Semcire-
bas, somxeTi ki piriqiT, irans, ruseTTan erTad, aRiqvamda Zalad,
romelic mas TurqeTis da azerbaijanis da maTgan aRqmuli sa-
frTxis dabalansebaSi daexmareboda. amasve emateboda is faqtic,
rom somxeTi dasavleTis politikas mTiani yarabaRis konfliq-
tis mimarT ufro proazerbaijanulad Tvlida, radgan dasavle-
Tis saxelmwifoebi mxars azerbaijanis teritoriuli mTliano-
bis principis dacvas da mTiani yarabaRis farTo avtonomias u-
Werdnen, oRond azerbaijanis respublikis SemadgenlobaSi.
189
somxeTis urTierTobebi ruseTTan Tavidanve pozitiuri mima-
rTulebiT ganviTarda. petrosianis mmarTvelobis periodSi,
ZiriTadad azerbaijanidan momavali safrTxis pirobebSi somxe-
Tis mTavari mokavSire, romelic uzrunvelyofda aRqmuli sagar-
eo safrTxis dabalansebas, ruseTi gaxda. miuxedavad imisa, rom
petrosianis administracias Tavidanve gamokveTilad prorusu-
li orientacia ar gaaCnda, ruseTSi xelisuflebaSi elcinis mos-
vlisa, xolo azerbaijanSi proTurqulad ganwyobili nacional-
isti elCibeis mosvlis Semdeg somxeTi TandaTan iwyebs daaxloe-
bas yofil metropoliasTan.
190
yofil sabWoTa respublikebs
Soris somxeTi pirveli iyo, romelmac xeli moawera damoukidebel
saxelmwifoTa Tanamegobrobis qartias da koleqtiuri usafrTx-
oebis xelSekrulebas SeuerTda im imediT, rom igi SeZlebda dsT-
s farglebSi arsebuli usafrTxoebis sistemis aqtivirebas azer-
baijanis winaaRmdeg dapirispirebaSi. Tavis mxriv somxeTi ruse-
Tis mTavari dasayrdeni gaxda samxreT kavkasiaSi. 1993 wlidan somx-
188
189
iqve . . . gv. 34
190
iqve . . .
somxeTi
66
191
RFE/RL, Caucasus Report (30 October, 1998. http://www.rferl.org/reports/caucasus-report/
1998/10/35-301098.asp).
192
Elkhan Nuriyev, Geopolitical Breakthrough and Emerging Challenges: The Case of the
South Caucasus (Perceptions, Journal of International Affairs, Vol. VI, No. 2. June-July 2001.
p.3).
193
Bertsch, Cassady Craft, Scott A. Jones and Michael Beck (Eds), Routledge 2000. p. 35)
194
Harry Tamrazian, Armenia/Russia: landmark Treaty Includes Provision for Mutual Defense
(RFE/RL Newsline, 1997).
195
196
1991-1997 wlebSi mravali sxva samxedro xelSekrulebis xelmowera moxda somxeTsa
da ruseTs Soris. Tumca 1997 wlis SeTanxmeba yvelaze mniSvnelovania, radgan masSi
eTis samxedro SesaZleblobebis gazrdis mizniT ruseTma wamoiw-
yo iaraRisa da samxedro teqnikis gadacema somxeTisa da yara-
baRisaTvis, rac cnobili gaxda e.w. dumis skandalis Semdeg 1996-
1997 wlebSi. somxeTis militarizacia sagareo aqtoris mxridan
daadastura somxeTis Tavdacvis ministrma serJ sarqisianma, roca
ganacxada, rom `bolo wlebis ganmavlobaSi Cven gavaormageT Cve-
ni samxedro SesaZleblobebi, ise, rom amisTvis sakuTari biu-
jetidan araferi dagvixarjavs~.
191
ter-petrosianis mmarTvelo-
bis momdevno wlebSi somxeTis urTierTobebi ruseTTan, gan-
sakuTrebiT samxedro sferoSi, kidev ufro gaRrmavda. garda dsT-
s formatiT gaformebuli SeTanxmebebisa, araerTi sxva ormxrivi
xelSekrulebis xelmowera moxda or qveyanas Soris. 1995 wels
somxeTma xeli moawera samxedro SeTanxmebas ruseTTan, romlis
safuZvelzec ruseTs ufleba eZleoda 20000-mde jariskaci gane-
Tavsebina somxeTis or samxedro bazaze.
192
1997 wels ki or saxelm-
wifos Soris gaformda xelSekruleba saxelwodebiT `megobro-
bis, TanamSromlobis da urTierTdaxmarebis xelSekruleba ruse-
Tis federaciasa da somxeTis respublikas Soris~.
193
am xelSek-
rulebis safuZvelze pirvelad postsabWoTa istoriaSi ruseTi
iRebda valdebulebas, rom daecva mokavSire sagareo agresiis
SemTxvevaSi.
194
am SeTanxmebas mohyva xelSekruleba, romlis Tanax-
madac ruseTs SeeZlo damatebiT 5000 jariskacis ganTavseba somx-
eTis teritoriaze, romelic 1997 wels ratificirebul iqna somx-
eTis parlamentis mier.
195
ruseTsa da somxeTs Soris arsebuli mWidro urTierTobebi
samxedro sferoSi kidev ufro gaRrmavda momdevno wlebSi.
196
Se-
Tavi meeqvse
67
qmnili geopolitikuri situaciis fonze somxeTi ruseTs saku-
Tari usafrTxoebis mTavar garantad miiCnevda. ruseTisa da somx-
eTis urTierTobebi or saxelmwifos Soris arsebuli formaluri
aliansis klasikuri SemTxveva iyo. ruseTTan kavSirSi Sesvlis gasa-
zomad sam indikators gvTavazobs erik mileri: (1) moawera Tu ara
xeli saxelmwifom dsT-s koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis xelSekrule-
bas; (2) darTo Tu ara rusuli samxedro nawilebis ganTavsebis neba
sakuTar teritoriaze; (3) moawera Tu ara xeli ormxriv usafrTx-
oebis xelSekrulebas ruseTTan.
197
somxeTis SemTxvevaSi samive in-
dikatori saxezea. miuxedavad im faqtisa, rom petrosiani cdi-
lobda SedarebiT diversificirebuli gaexada somxeTis sagareo
politikuri prioritetebi, realurad mTavari mokavSiris funq-
cias, romelic sagareo safrTxis dabalansebaSi daexmareboda,
ruseTi warmoadgenda.
198
1997 wels Sida politikuri dapirispirebebis fonze ter-petro-
siani iZulebuli gaxda gadamdgariyo da misi adgili mTiani yara-
baRis premier-ministrma robert qoCarianma daikava. yvelaze
sagulisxmo faqti im periodSi ara mxolod petrosianis gadadgo-
ma iyo, aramed is konteqsti, romelic am movlenas edo safuZv-
lad. petrosianis gadadgoma ganpirobebuli iyo misi SedarebiT
zomieri midgomiT mTiani yarabaRis konfliqtTan mimarTebaSi da
erovnuli usafrTxoebis imperativebiT iyo gamarTlebuli.
199
petrosianis mmarTvelobis periodis somxeTis sagareo poli-
tika gamokveTilad ruseTTan mokavSireobaze iyo orientirebu-
li. Tu mivubrundebiT naSromis Teoriul nawilSi gamoTqmul mo-
sazrebebs ZalTa balansisa da safrTxis balansis Teoriebs Soris
arsebul amxsnelobiT upiratesobaze, maSin am ukanasknelis war-
mateba saxezea.
somxeTi
gansazRvrulia, rom sagareo agresiis SemTxvevaSi xelSekrulebis orive mxare
urTierTdacvis pasuxismgeblobas iRebs.
197
Eric A. Miller, To Balance or Not to Balance: Alignment Theory and the Commonwealth of
Independent States (Ashgate Publishing Limited, 2006. p. 26).
198
miuxedavad im faqtisa, rom petrosians da qoCarians gansxvavebuli sagareo
politikuri prioritetebi gaaCndaT, Tu ganvazogadebT somxeTis sagareo urTierTobebs
damoukideblobis mopovebidan, SegviZlia davaskvnaT, rom or liders Soris arsebuli
gansxvavebebi mxolod Teoriul doneze iCenda Tavs, praqtikaSi ki orive administraciis
pirobebSi somxeTis sagareo politikis ganmsazRvrel niSas ruseTTan mokavSireoba
warmoadgenda. ix. Taline Papazian, From Ter-Petrossian to Kocharian: Explaining Continuity in
Armenian Foreign Policy, 1991-2003 (Demokratizatsiya, Spring 2006, Vol. 14, Issue 2).
199
Richard Grigorisian, Redefining Armenian National Security (Demokratizatsiya, Spring
2006, Vol. 14 Issue 2, p.228).
68
somxeTma ufro Zlier saxelmwifosTan kavSirSi SesvliT daa-
balansa safrTxe, romelsac mas azerbaijani da TurqeTi uqmnid-
nen. ZalTa balansis Teoriis logikiT, romelic miiCnevs, rom sax-
elmwifoebi mxolod Zlierebis cvladiT axdenen safrTxis wyaros
identificirebas, maSin somxeTs mokavSired ruseTi ar unda Seer-
Cia, radgan ruseTi bevrad Zlieri iyo vidre azerbaijansa da
TurqeTs Soris arsebuli kavSiri. garda amisa, dasturdeba kvle-
vis Teoriul nawilSi gamoTqmuli mosazreba dabalansebisa da
mitmasnebis strategiebTan mimarTebaSi. safrTxis wyaros dabal-
anseba upiratesi arCevania saxelmwifosTvis, vidre masTan mit-
masneba. rac ufro didia safrTxis aRqma miT ufro izrdeba misi
dabalansebis mizniT mokavSiris moZiebis tendencia. Tu petrosi-
anis mmarTvelobis pirvel wlebSi TurqeTis winaaRmdeg dabal-
ansebis motivacia naklebad gamokveTili iyo, es mxolod imitom,
rom petrosiani dasomxeTis erovnuli moZraoba im periodSi
TurqeTs realur safrTxed ar miiCnevda. TurqeTis mxridan agre-
siuli, proazerbaijanuli politikis wamowyebis paralelurad
aaqtiurebs somxeTi mis urTierTobebs ruseTTan. somxeTi safrTx-
is wyarosTan mitmasnebis nacvlad, mis dabalansebas amjobinebs.
Sejamebis saxiT unda iTqvas, rom sagareo safrTxis dabalansebis
tendencia da ruseTTan ufro mWidro urTierTobebis damyareba,
somxeTis momdevno prezidentis, qoCarianis mmarTvelobis wleb-
Si kidev ufro gamokveTili xdeba.
1998 wlis aprilSi saprezidento arCevnebis Sedegad somxeTis
prezidenti robert qoCariani xdeba. xelisuflebaSi mosvlis Sem-
deg qoCarianma misi winamorbedis bevri politikuri kursi gaagr-
Zela. miuxedavad im faqtisa, rom bevrs miaCnda, rom qoCariani
ufro mkacr pozicias daiWerda yarabaRis konfliqtTan mimarTe-
baSi, arsebiTi gansxvaveba massa da mis winamorbeds Soris ar yofi-
la. axali administracia acxadebda, rom igi konfliqtis dareg-
ulirebis im gzas dasTanxmdeboda, romelic yarabaRis somxebi-
saTvis iqneboda misaRebi.
200
Tumca qoCarianis administraciam
Tavidanve scada diasporis politikuri miznebis inkorporireba
sakuTar sagareo politikur prioritetebSi.
201
Tavidanve aSkara
200
Edmund Herzig, Politics in Independent Armenia, (In: The Armenians: Past and Present in the
Making of National Identity, Edmund Herzig and Marina Kurkchiyan (Eds). Routledge Curzon. 2005. p.175)
201
Leila Alieva, Reshaping Eurasia: Foreign Policy Strategies and Leadership Assets in Post-Soviet
South Caucasus (Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies, Working Paper Series, Winter 1999-
2000. p. 16).
Tavi meeqvse
69
iyo, rom qoCarianis administracia petrosianis sagareo poli-
tikuri prioritetebis garkveul nawils mainc gadaxedavda. am ko-
reqtirebis TvalsaCino magaliTad iqca somxeTis sagareo saqme-
Ta ministris varTan oskanianis gancxadeba, rom somxeTi genoci-
dis aRiarebis sakiTxs TurqeTTan urTierTobebis dRis wesrigSi
daayenebda.
202
sagareo politikuri kursis nawilobrivi cvlilebis
mcdeloba im faqtiTac dadasturda, rom qoCarianis administra-
ciam 1998 wlis maisSi radikalur-nacionalisturad ganwyobili
partiis daSnakciutunis
*
legalizacia moaxdina.
203
ase rom, xe-
lisuflebaSi qoCarianis mosvla adasturebda, rom somxeTis urT-
ierTobebi TurqeTTan ufro garTuldeboda, vidre ter-petro-
sianis mmarTvelobis periodSi. aseve gauaresda urTierTobebi
azerbaijanTan. prezidentobis pirvel wlebSi qoCarians ar sur-
da pirispir Sexvedroda heidar alievs mTiani yarabaRis proble-
mebis gansaxilvelad da amtkicebda, rom alievs molaparakebebi
pirdapir mTiani yarabaRis administraciasTan unda gaemarTa.
204
2002 wlis agvistoSi, heidar alievma SesTavaza kidevac
ekonomikuri urTierTobebis aRdgena somxeTs, mis mier iranis
sazRvarTan dakavebuli oTxi teritoriis gaTavisuflebis san-
acvlod. Tumca prezident qoCarianis uarma ganexilaT amgvari
SemoTavazeba, erTi mxriv, kidev ufro gaarTula or saxelmwifos
Soris arsebuli urTierTobebi, xolo meore mxriv, daarwmuna az-
erbaijanis administracia, rom konfliqtis mogvarebis erTad-
erTi gza samxedro gziT Careva iyo.
205
qoCarianis prezidentoba
im faqtiTac iyo mniSvnelovani, rom diasporis gavlena somxeTis
sagareo politikis gansazRvraze kidev ufro gaizarda.
Tumca azerbaijanTan garTulebuli urTierTobebis fonze
202
the Caucasus (Routledge Curzon. 2001. p. 305).
daSnakcutiunis partia, romelic Zalian didi gavleniT sargeblobda, rogorc

yarabaRSi, aseve diasporaSi, aikrZala ter-petrosianis reJimis mier imis gamo, rom
somxeTis konstitucia krZalavda garedan kontrolirebuli partiebis saqmianobas somxeTis
teritoriaze. ix. Graham Usher, The Fate of Small Nations: The Karabakh Conflict ten Years
Later (Middles East Report, No. 213, Winter 1999. p. 20).
203
the Caucasus (Routledge Curzon. 2001. p. 305).
204
Kamer Kasim, Armenias Foreign Policy: basic Parameters of Ter-Petrosian and Kocharian
Era (Review of Armenian Studies, Volume I, Number 1, 2002, pp. 94-95).
205
Fariz Ismailzade, Latest Efforts to Solve Nagorno-Karabakh Dispute Fails, Killing Talks of
Economic Cooperations (Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 9 October, 2002).
somxeTi
70
kidev ufro gaRrmavda somxeTis urTierTobebi iranTan poli-
tikur da ekonomikur sferoebSi, xolo 2002 wels iranisa da somx-
eTis Tavdacvis ministrebma erevanSi Sexvedrisas Riad wamoiwyes
saubari samxedro sferoSi TanamSromlobis perspeqtivebis Sesax-
eb.
206
qoCarianis mmarTvelobis wlebSi aseve kidev ufro ganmtkicda
ruseTsa da somxeTs Soris arsebuli urTierTobebi, rogorc
samxedro, aseve ekonomikis sferoebSi. 2001 wels somxeTi erevanSi
gamarTul dsT-s samitze prezident putinis piradi iniciativiT
Seqmnil koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis xelSekrulebis organizacias
SeuerTda.
207
am organizaciis formatiT somxeTi ruseTTTan er-
Tad regularulad atarebs samxedro wvrTnebs.
208
2003 wlis noem-
berSi ki ruseTsa da somxeTs Soris axali SeTanxmebis xelmowera
moxda, romlis safuZvelzec ruseTs ufleba eZleoda esargebla
yvela somxuri samxedro baziT da somxeTis samxedro nawilebis
modernizacia moexdina.
209
garda samxedro TanamSromlobis sf-
eroSi miRweuli Sedegebisa, qoCarianis mmarTvelobis momdevno
wlebSi didad gaizarda somxeTis ekonomikuri damokidebuleba
ruseTze, gansakuTrebiT energetikis sferoSi. dResdReobiT somx-
eTis eleqtroenergiis mwarmoebeli eleqtrosadgurebis 80 pro-
centze mets floben an akontroloben rusuli kompaniebi.
210
Sejamebis saxiT unda aRiniSnos, rom qoCarianis mmarTvelobis
periodSi somxeTis sagareo politika gamokveTilad ruseTTan
mokavSireobaze orientirebuli rCeba. ufro metic, am mima-
rTulebiT urTierTobebi or saxelmwifos Soris kidev ufro gaR-
rmavda. somxeTi dRes ruseTTan aliansSi yofnas sakuTari da
mTiani yarabaRis usafrTxoebisaTvis umniSvnelovanes winapiro-
206
Geoffrey Gresh, Coddling the Caucasus: Irans Strategic Relationship with Azerbaijan and
Armenia (Caucasian Review of International Affairs, Vol.1 (1) Winter 2006. p. 11).
207
Svante E. Cornell, Roger N. McDermott, William O Malley, Vladimir Socor, S. Frederick
Starr, Regional Security in the South Caucasus: The Role of NATO (Central Asia-Caucasus
Institute, 2004. p. 24).
208
Marcel De Haas, Andrej Tibold, Vincent Cillessen, Geo-Strategy in the South Caucasus:
Power Play and Energy Security of States and Organizations (Clingendeal Institute, November
2006. p. 26).
209
Ilan Berman, The New battleground: Central Asia and the Caucasus (The Washington
Quarterly, Winter, 28:1, 2004-05. p. 66).
210
Emil Danielyan, Russia Tightens Grip on Armenian Energy Sector, (Eurasianet,
Business&Economics, 9/28/05. http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/business/articles/
eav092805.shtml.
Tavi meeqvse
71
bad miiCnevs. miuxedavad im faqtisa, rom somxeTis sagareo poli-
tikas dRevandeli administracia mravalmxrivs uwodebs, aSkaraa,
rom sagareo politikis qvakuTxeds kvlav ruseTTan mokavSireo-
ba da am kavSirze dayrdnobiT sagareo safrTxeebis dabalanseba
Seadgens.
daskvna
damoukideblobis aRdgenis Semdeg somxeTis sagareo poli-
tikur prioritetebs Tavidanve ramdenime sakvanZo sakiTxi gana-
pirobebda. pirveli, konfliqti azerbaijanTan mTiani yarabaRis
gamo. meore, genocidis aRiarebis sakiTxi, rac pirdapir gavle-
nas axdenda da dResac axdens somxeTis urTierTobebze mezobel
TurqeTTan. da mesame, diasporis gavlena am qveynis sagareo poli-
tikaze. zemoTCamoTvlili faqtorebis kombinacia ganapirobeb-
da somxeTis sagareo politikis ZiriTad mimarTulebebs da
garkveul SezRudvebs uwesebda somxeTis pirvel da meore admin-
istraciasac. ter-petrosianis da somxeTis saxalxo moZraobis
revizionistuli sagareo politikuri xedvebi sawyis etapze ga-
napirobebda kidevac mezobel TurqeTTan SedarebiT normaluri
urTierTobebis ganviTarebas. Tumca miuxedavad TurqeTTan urT-
ierTobebis normalizaciis mcdelobisa, somxeTis mTavar sagar-
eo mokavSires ruseTi warmoadgenda. sawyis etapze petrosiani
azerbaijanTanac cdilobda urTierTobebis mowesrigebas, Tum-
ca yarabaRis konfliqtis gamo didi warmatebebis miRweva am mima-
rTulebiT ver moxerxda. ramdenad xsnis safrTxis wonasworobis
Teoria petrosianis mmarTvelobis droindel somxeTis sagareo
politikur qcevebs? am kiTxvaze pasuxis gacemamde mivubrundeT
naSromis Teoriul nawilSi gamoTqmul mosazrebebs dabalansebi-
sa da zogadad Teoriuli modelebis Sesaxeb. Cven aRvniSneT, rom
dabalansebac da mitmasnebac Teoriuli modelebia, romelTa mTa-
vari funqciaa realobis ganzogadebuli da gamartivebuli sura-
Ti dagvanaxos. safrTxis wyaros winaaRmdeg dabalansebis strate-
giis arCeva ar gulisxmobs safrTxis wyarosTan urTierTobebis
normalizebaze uaris Tqmas. saxelmwifo, romelic sagareo sa-
frTxis dabalansebis strategias mimarTavs mokavSireebis moZie-
biT, aseve SesaZloa safrTxis wyarosTan arsebuli urTierTobeb-
is normalizaciazec zrunavdes. swored amgvari strategia hqon-
somxeTi
72
da SerCeuli petrosians. acnobierebda ra TurqeTis regionul
rols da aseve im faqts, rom azerbaijanTan da TurqeTTan dip-
lomatiuri kavSirebis arqona gamoiwvevda sxvas arafers Tu ara
somxeTis izolaciis gaRrmavebas, cdilobda SedarebiT
mravalmxrivi gaexada somxeTis sagareo urTierTobebi. Tumca,
amis paraleluradve somxeTi kidev ufro aRrmavebda kavSirebs
ruseTTan samxedro sferoSi, ris naTel dadasturebadac iqca or
saxelmwifos Soris 1997 wels xelmowerili `megobrobis, Tanam-
Sromlobis da urTierTdaxmarebis xelSekruleba ruseTis fed-
eraciasa da somxeTis respublikas Soris~, romelsac formalur
da institucionalizebul doneze ayavda ruseTsa da somxeTs
Soris arsebuli urTierTobebi. rac Seexeba qoCarianis
mmarTvelobis periods, unda aRiniSnos, rom am periodSi sagareo
safrTxeebis dabalansebis motivacia kidev ufro gamoikveTa,
rasac somxeTi ruseTTan da iranTan mokavSireobis safuZvelze
axorcielebs.
da bolos, gansxvavebiT saqarTvelosa da azerbaijanisagan,
somxeTis sagareo politika bolomde sagareo safrTxis dabal-
ansebis strategiaze iyo orientirebuli da ara mitmasnebis. aqac
Tu mivubrundebiT mitmasnebasTan mimarTebaSi gamoTqmul mo-
sazrebebs, Teoriuli daSvebebi marTldeba. somxeTs, gansxvavebiT
saqarTvelosa da azerbaijanisagan, Tavidanve hyavda sagareo
mokavSire, romelic sagareo safrTxeebis dabalansebaSi daexmare-
boda.
Tu ganvazogadebT somxeTis sagareo politikis ganviTarebas
damoukideblobis aRdgenis Semdeg aSkarad saxezea safrTxis
wonasworobis Teoriis upiratesoba ZalTa wonasworobis Teori-
asTan mimarTebaSi. saxelmwifoebi mxolod Zlierebis cvladze
dayrdnobiT, rom axdendnen safrTxis wyaros identificirebas,
maSin somxeTs kavSiri ara ruseTTan, aramed mis winaaRmdeg unda
Seekra. Tumca, radgan Zliereba safrTxis aRqmaSi mxolod erTi
da ara maincdamainc yvelaze mniSvnelovani komponentia, somxeTi
swored im saxelmwifoebis winaaRmdeg amjobinebs kavSirSi Sesv-
las, romelTac yvelaze did safrTxeebad aRiqvams.
Tavi meeqvse
daskvna
winamdebare naSromis mizani iyo ZalTa da safrTxis wonasworo-
bis Teoriebis daSvebebis gadamowmebis safuZvelze Seeswavla, Tu
romel faqtorebs iReben saxelmwifoebi mxedvelobaSi mokavSiree-
bis SerCevisas. kvlevis es bolo daskvniTi nawili kvlevis Sedege-
bis ganxilvas da Sejamebas daeTmoba. Tumca struqturulad or
nawilad davyof Sejamebis amocanas. pirveli nawili kidev erTx-
el Seajamebs kvlevis Sedegad miRebul Teoriul daskvnebs. meore
ki ganazogadebs samxreT kavkasiis regionSi mimdinare procesebs
da aliansebs da Seajamebs empiriul Sedegebs.
kvlevis Sedegebis gaTvaliswinebiT ramdenime Teoriuli daskv-
nis gakeTebaa SesaZlebeli. pirveli da umTavresi daskvna iqneba
is, rom dadasturda safrTxis wonasworobis amxsnelobiTi upi-
ratesoba ZalTa wonasworobis TeoriasTan mimarTebaSi. meore,
aseve TvalnaTliv gamoCnda, rom saxelmwifoebi sagareo safrTx-
is dabalansebas amjobineben, vidre masTan mitmasnebas. safrTxis
wyarosTan mitmasneba SedarebiT iSviaTi movlenaa da am strate-
giis arCevas garkveuli winapirobebi uZRvis xolme, rogorc wesi,
win. garda amisa, kvlevis procesSi kidev erTi saintereso faqti
gamoikveTa. mitmasnebas naklebad SeiZleba vuwodoT kavSirebis
formirebis erT-erTi strategia. naSromis empiriul nawilSi cal-
saxad gamoCnda, rom miuxedavad safrTxis wyarosTan mitmasnebi-
sa, arc saqarTvelo da arcazerbaijani ruseTis mokavSireebad
ar ganixilebodnen. ase rom, mitmasneba ufro Seqmnili geopoli-
tikuri Tu Sida politikuri realobisadmi pasuxad SeiZleba
CavTvaloT, vidre kavSirebis formirebis erT-erT gzad.
garda amisa, kvlevaSi aseve gamoikveTa, rom safrTxis adek-
vaturad gasazomad mxolod Zlierebis cvladze dayrdnoba vali-
74
duri Sedegebis momtani ver iqneba. safrTxe kompleqsuri fenome-
nia da mis Sesafaseblad im damatebiTi faqtorebis gaTval-
iswinebaa saWiro, rogoricaa geografiuli siaxlove da agresiu-
li ganzraxvebi.
es bolo Teoriuli daskvna, aseve, erTi saintereso varaudis
gamoTqmis saSualebas maZlevs uolcis ZalTa wonasworobis Teo-
riasTan mimarTebaSi. uolcis Teorias saerTaSoriso politikis
hobsiseuli xedva (yvelas omi yvelas winaaRmdeg) udevs safuZv-
lad. Sesabamisad igi miiCnevs, rom saxelmwifoebma anarqiul saer-
TaSoriso sistemaSi unda daabalanson Zliereba da ara ganzrax-
vebi. radganac, ganzraxvebi SeiZleba swrafad Seicvalos, kerZod,
dRevandeli megobari xval SeiZleba mteri gaxdes, umjobesi da
ufro sando strategiaa Zliereba dabalansdes. Tumca rogorc
am da sxva kvlevebma aCvena,
211
saxelmwifoebi ise ar iqcevian,
rogorc uolci Tvlis, rom unda iqceodnen. saxelmwifoebi ufro
safrTxes abalanseben, vidre Zlierebas. ase rom, struqturuli
ZalTa wonasworobis Teoria saerTaSoriso politikisadmi uol-
cis subieqturi damokidebulebis produqti ufroa, vidre empir-
iuli realobis amsaxveli Teoriuli modeli.
*

rac Seexeba Sejamebis empiriul nawils ramdenime mosazreba
SeiZleba gamoiTqvas. pirveli, Cvens mier empiriul SemTxvevebad
SerCeuli saxelmwifoebi (saqarTvelo, azerbaijani, somxeTi)
mokavSireebis SerCevisas ar xelmZRvaneloben mxolod ZalTa ga-
nawilebis cvladze dayrdnobiT, aramed mokavSireebs arCeven imis
gaTvaliswinebiT, Tu romeli saxelmwifoa mzad sagareo safrTx-
eebis dabalansebaSi daexmaros. meore, regionis saxelmwifoebi
ZiriTad sagareo safrTxeebad maT uSualo mezoblebs aRiqvamen
(kidev erTi dadastureba geografiuli siaxlovis cvladis
damoukidebeli rolisa). mesame, regionis TiToeuli saxelmwifo
211
igulisxmeba is kvlevebi, romelic axlo aRmosavleTisa da samxreT-dasavleT
aziis regionebze Catarda. ix. Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Cornell University
Press. 1987), aseve, Stephen M. Walt, Testing Theories of Alliance Formation: The Case of
Southwest Asia (International Organization, Vol.42, No. 2. 1988).
es daskvna SesaZloa sakmaod winaaRmdegobrivi Candes miTumetes imis fonze, rom

uolci erT-erTi pirveli realisti mecnieri aris, romelmac mis Teorias pozitivisturi
xedvebi daudo safuZvlad da amiT daupirispirda, rogorc normatiul Teoriul modelebs
(rogori unda iyos samyaro), aseve im mecnierebs (morgenTau, qari, tompsoni, buli, uaiTi
da sxvebi), romlebic tradiciul (istoriul) meTodologiaze dayrdnobiT Seiswavlidnen
saerTaSoriso urTierTobebs.
daskvna
75
Zlier gare aqtorebs miiCnevs misi usafrTxoebis mTavar garan-
tebad da mokavSireebad mezoblebis winaaRmdeg. da meoTxe, im
faqts, rom es saxelmwifoebi gansxvavebulad aRiqvamen safrTx-
eebs garda Teoriuli mniSvnelobisa, erTi Zalian sagulisxmo da
amavdroulad negatiuri datvirTva aqvs. safrTxeebis gansxvave-
buli aRqma erT-erTi mTavari faqtoria, rac regionuli idento-
bis Camoyalibebas da am saxelmwifoebs Soris TanamSromlobis per-
speqtivebs uSlis xels.
da bolos, winamdebare kvlevam mxolod erTi konkretuli, gan-
zogadebuli saxiT da analizis mxolod erT doneze dayrdnobiT
Seiswavla samxreT kavkasiis regionSi arsebuli aliansebis
formirebis gamomwvevi mizezebi. imeds vitoveb, rom naSromi waax-
alisebs samecniero debatebs da am sakiTxebiT dainteresebul
mkiTxvels aRwerili procesebis ufro detalurad gacnobis da
Seswavlis survils gauCens.
daskvna
danarTi
cxrili 1
*
*
wyaro: U.S. Military Spending vs the World, (Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation,
February 22, 2008) (http://www.armscontrolcenter. org/policy/securityspending/articles/
fy09_dod_request_global/ accessed 15.06.08).
gamoyenebuli literatura
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Summary
Balance of Power or Balance of Threat?
Alignments in the South Caucasus
By Giorgi Gvalia
The book analyzes alignment decisions in the South Caucasus.
The main questions that book deals with are the following: What
causes alignments? Which factors do states take into account when
making alliance decisions? Which way of forming alliances is more
common: Balancing or Bandwaggoning?
In Order to answer this set of questions author proposes to test
two well-known and influential theories about alliance formation and
alignments: The Balance of Power Theory and The Balance of Threat
Theory.
Also some preliminary hypothesis are proposed at the beginning
of the book. Author tries to test these hypothesis as systematically as
possible.
By testing the above mentioned theories and hypothesis using the
empirical data author makes five basic conclusions: (1) The Balance
of Threat theory is superior to Balance of Power theory in explaining
alignments decisions of the South Caucasian states; (2) States bal-
ance against the states that pose the greatest threat and the later
need not be the most powerful states in the system; (3) Threat is
complex phenomenon and in order to adequately measure it the vari-
able of power is not enough (4) Balancing is more common than
bandwaggoning (5) Bandwaggoning is more the response to the par-
ticular geopolitical or domestic political pressures than the way of
forming alliances.
bTkk-s saerTaSoriso
politikis kvlevebis seria
buferuli saxelmwifoebi
Tornike TurmaniZe, 2006.
rusuli sagareo politikuri
azrovneba postsabWoTa periodSi
erekle uruSaZe, 2006.
gadawyvetilebis miReba sust saxelmwifoSi
revaz baxtaZe, 2007.

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