The science of global warming

JOHN HOUGHTON
Hadley Centre, Meteorological Office, Berks., UK

There is strong scientific evidence that the average temperature of the earth’s surface is rising as a result of the
increased concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere owing to human activities,
especially the burning of fossil fuels, coal, oil, and gas. This global warming will lead to substantial changes of
climate, many of which will impact human communities in deleterious ways. In terms of the likely global pattern
of climate change over the twenty-first century, in the absence of any mitigating action the global average
temperature is likely to rise by between about 1·5 and 5·5°C and sea level by about half a metre (range 0·1–0·9 m).
The hydrological cycle is likely to be more intense ( leading in some places to more frequent and more intense
floods and droughts) and the rate of climate change is likely to be substantially greater than the earth has
experienced over at least the last ten thousand years. It is particularly to this rapid rate of change that it will be
difficult for many ecosystems and for humans to adapt. Action has been taken by the world’s scientists through the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to assess as thoroughly as possible knowledge regarding the basic
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science and the impacts, including an assessment of the uncertainties. The world’s governments have also taken
action in setting up the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC ) at the Earth Summit in 1992 and at
subsequent meetings of the parties to that convention, especially that at Kyoto in 1997. In order to mitigate climate
change the FCCC in its article 2 has set the objective of stabilisation of the concentration of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere at a level and on a timescale consistent with the needs both of the environment and of sustainable
development. Such stabilisation will eventually demand severe cuts in global emissions, for instance of carbon
dioxide, to levels well below today’s by the second half of the twenty-first century. To achieve the required reductions
in the emissions of carbon dioxide, three possibilities are available, to sequester carbon dioxide resulting from the
burning of fossil fuels rather than releasing it to the atmosphere, to become much more efficient in the generation
and use of energy, and to provide for energy supply from non-fossil fuel sources. This article will summarise the
science of climate change including the evidence for it and will describe the main impacts, the actions taken so far,
and the further actions that are likely to be necessary to mitigate climate change.

Variations in day to day weather occur all the time;
they are very much part of our lives. The climate of
a region is its average weather over a period that may
be a few months, a season, or a few years. Variations
in climate are also very familiar to us. We describe
summers as wet or dry, winters as mild, cold, or
stormy, recognising that in many parts of the world
the seasons vary a great deal from year to year.
Most of the variations we take for granted. Those
we particularly notice are the extreme situations and
the climate disasters. During recent decades, different
parts of the world have experienced extreme temper-
atures, record floods, droughts, and windstorms. Such
extremes are an important manifestation of the large
natural variability of the climate; their impact has
served to emphasise the vulnerability of human com-
munities to climate variation and extremes. This is
well illustrated by the unparalleled losses experienced
by the insurance industry during the later years of the
1980s and the 1990s. Although there is no strong
evidence that these events are outside the range of the
natural variability of climate experienced in historic
times, their impact has served to add more relevance
to the question whether human activities (such as
fossil fuel burning) are likely to lead to substantial
and damaging future climate change. To obtain a
perspective on climate change we shall first look at
the climate of the last hundred thousand years or so,
which has been dominated by the last ice age, and
then look at climate trends over the last century.
The climate record over many thousands of years
can be built up by analysing the composition of the
ice and the air trapped in the ice obtained from
different depths from cores drilled from the Antarctic
or the Greenland icecaps. Figure 1 records the tem-
perature at which the ice was laid down and the
atmospheric carbon dioxide content over the last
hundred and sixty thousand years from an Antarctic
ice core. Currently the earth’s climate is in a warm
phase which began when the last ice age came to an
end about twenty thousand years ago; the last warm
period was about a hundred and twenty thousand
years ago. The main triggers for the ice ages have
been the small regular variations in the geometry of
the earth’s orbit about the sun which affect the
distribution of solar radiation at the earth’s surface.
Of particular interest is the strong correlation between
the atmospheric temperature and the carbon dioxide
content. Part of this undoubtedly arises because the
amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is depen-
dent on factors that are strongly related to the average
surface temperature. But it is also true that it is not
possible to understand the range of temperature
variations of the past without allowing for the influ-

© 2001 IoM Communications Ltd INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 2001, VOL. 26, NO. 4 247
ISSN 0308–0188

1 Observations from the Vostok ice core, showing
variation of atmospheric temperature over
Antarctica (it is estimated that the variation of
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global average temperature would be of the
order of half that in the polar regions) and of
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, for
the last hundred and sixty thousand years: note
the current value of carbon dioxide concen-
tration of about 370 ppm and the likely rise
during the twenty-first century under various
projections of its growth
ence of carbon dioxide on atmospheric temperature
through the greenhouse effect (see below). Note also
from Fig. 1 the very rapid rise in atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentration over the past two hundred
years or so as a result of human activities, which has
taken the concentration of this gas well outside the
range of its natural variation during the last million
years or more.
The changes in the average air temperature near
the earth’s surface over the past century or so, as
established from the instrumental record, are shown
in Fig. 2. Over this period this temperature has
increased by somewhat more than 0·5°C, although
the increase has not been uniform. There are strong
indications that the increase since the 1970s is linked
with the growth in the atmosphere of greenhouse
gases such as carbon dioxide from anthropogenic
sources. The 1990s have been particularly warm in
terms of this global average temperature. Not only
was 1998 the warmest year on record, but the first
eight months of 1998 were the warmest of those
months on record. Note also the year to year vari-
ations that are a further illustration of natural climate
variability. (In Fig. 6 is shown a record constructed
from proxy data for the last millennium, showing
that 1998 is also likely to be the warmest year in the
northern hemisphere over the last millennium.)
Greenhouse effect
That the earth’s surface is kept warm by the ‘green-
house effect’ has been known for nearly two centuries.
But it was just one hundred years ago, in 1896, that
248 INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 2001, VOL. 26, NO. 4
2 Changes in global annual mean surface temper-
ature since 1860 relative to the 1961–90 average,
shown by vertical bars (thin whisker bars indi-
cate the 95% confidence range) and a smoothed
curve giving the decadal average: data from
thermometers
Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist, made the first
calculation of the average rise in temperature to be
expected at the earth’s surface if the atmospheric
carbon dioxide concentration should double. His
estimate of 5 or 6°C was not far out, just a little
larger than current estimates that fall in the range
1·5 to 4·5°C.
The earth absorbs radiation from the sun, mainly
at its surface. A balancing amount of energy is then
radiated to space at longer, infrared, wavelengths.
Some of the gases in the atmosphere, particularly
water vapour, carbon dioxide, and methane, and
clouds absorb some of the infrared radiation emitted
by the surface and themselves emit radiation from
higher altitudes at colder temperatures. The earth’s
surface is thereby kept about 30°C warmer than it
would otherwise be. This is known as the greenhouse
effect because the glass in a greenhouse possesses
similar optical properties to the atmosphere.
Increases in the concentration of the ‘greenhouse
gases’ will tend to lead to further warming of the
surface and the lower atmosphere; this is the
‘enhanced greenhouse effect’. Its approximate magni-
tude can be simply estimated from radiation energy
balance calculations, but for detailed information,
sophisticated computer models have to be used which
take into account the influences of the atmospheric
and oceanic circulations (see the section ‘Has anthro-
pogenic climate change been observed?’).
It was in the late 1960s that scientists began to
realise that the rate of increase of the amount of
atmospheric carbon dioxide, owing to the increasing
rate of burning of fossil fuels, was such that significant
global warming would occur. Associated with the
warming would be substantial changes in the earth’s
climate. By the late 1980s, wide concern was being
expressed about the likely impact of climate change
and it became a subject firmly on the political agenda.
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC ) was formed in 1988 jointly by two UN
 bodies, the World Meteorological Organization and
the UN Environment Programme, to provide assess-
ments of future climate change and its likely impact.
Its first report, published in 1990, provided the scien-
tific basis for the Framework Convention on Climate
Change (FCCC ) agreed at the Earth Summit held in
Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 and ratified by about a
hundred and sixty nations. To assist in the convention
process, a comprehensive report was produced by the
IPCC at the end of 1995 and a further full report
published in 2001. The writing and review process of
these reports has involved the leading scientists in the
world in the field of climate change together with
many hundreds of other scientists from many count-
ries – in fact, a large proportion of the world’s
scientists who are involved in this field. The pol-
icymakers’ summaries of the reports have been agreed
at meetings at which delegates from up to a hundred
countries have been present as well as representatives
of non-governmental organisations and of the scien-
tific community. Their findings therefore have the
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support both of the scientific community and of

governments.
The IPCC has not only assessed the basic science
of climate change but also its likely impacts on human
activities and the options for adaptation to those
impacts. It has also addressed how climate change
can be mitigated through the reduction of emissions
of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, for instance
by changes in the generation and use of energy, by
the sequestration of carbon dioxide, or by reducing
the emissions of methane from a variety of sources.
The IPCC has also supported the work of the FCCC
through its assessments of studies of the likely econ-
omic costs of the damage due to climate change and
its assessments of adaptation and mitigation and of
studies of the social and political implications of
action and inaction. The material in this paper that
summarises all aspects of the issue of anthropogenic
global climate change is substantially based on the
IPCC reports, in particular on the third assessment
report published in 2001.
Greenhouse gases
The main greenhouse gases that are produced by
human activities are carbon dioxide and methane.
Their atmospheric concentrations have risen by about
30% (Fig. 3) and 150% respectively since preindustrial
times, largely because of fossil fuel use, land use
change (for example deforestation), and agriculture.
Carbon dioxide is responsible for about two thirds
of the enhanced greenhouse effect to date due to the
increases in greenhouse gases. If no action is taken
to mitigate emissions of carbon dioxide, the level of
emissions and its atmospheric concentration will con-
tinue to rise throughout the next century (Fig. 3). Its
concentration could reach 560 ppm, double its prein-
dustrial concentration, before the year 2100.
Other greenhouse gases of importance (Fig. 4) are
nitrous oxide, which has contributed about 6% to the
3 a global net carbon emissions from fossil fuel
use 1850–1990 and for scenarios to 2100 (giga-
tonnes per annum). The scenarios make differ-
ent assumptions about economic growth, fuel
availability, and development of new renewable
energy sources: curves A and B assume ‘busi-
ness as usual’ (i.e. no strong pressure to reduce
fossil fuel use for environmental reasons), A3
assumes rapid technical innovation to bring in
non-fossil fuel sources, C is an ‘ecologically
driven’ scenario; and b atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentration in parts per million from
1850–1990 and for scenarios in a to 2100
greenhouse effect to date, the chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs), and ozone. Emissions of chlorofluorocar-
bons into the atmosphere have led to some destruc-
tion of the ozone layer, most dramatically illustrated
by the discovery of the ozone hole over Antarctica
in 1985. Because ozone is also a greenhouse gas, this
ozone destruction has partially compensated for the
greenhouse effect of the chlorofluorocarbons.
An important consideration is the time taken for
the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases to
be removed from the atmosphere. For methane, the
removal process is governed by chemical reactions;
the lifetime of methane in the atmosphere is about
ten years. On the timescales we are considering,
carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere is not
destroyed but redistributed among the carbon reser-
voirs, in the biosphere, and in the ocean. The carbon
reservoirs exchange carbon between themselves on a
wide range of timescales which vary from less than a
year to decades (for exchange with the top layers of
the ocean and the land biosphere) or to millennia
(for the deep ocean or long lived soil pools). The

INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 2001, VOL. 26, NO. 4 249

 4 Estimates of globally and annually averaged anthropogenic radiative forcing resulting from changes in
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concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols from preindustrial times to 1992 and from natural
changes in solar output from 1850 to the present. The indirect aerosol effect arises from the induced
change in cloud properties owing to aerosols. Error bars indicate the range of uncertainty in the
estimates; an indication is also provided of the degree of scientific understanding for each component.
A vertical line without a rectangular bar denotes a forcing for which a best estimate cannot be given
owing to the large uncertainties. Some of the radiative forcing agents are well mixed over the globe,
for instance carbon dioxide, thereby perturbing the global heat balance; others represent perturbations
with strong regional signatures, for instance aerosols. For this and other reasons, a simple sum of the
positive and negative bars cannot be expected to yield the net effect on the climate system

large range of turnover times means that the time
taken for a perturbation in the atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentration to relax back to an equilibrium
state cannot be described by a single time constant.
Although a lifetime of about a hundred years is often
quoted for atmospheric carbon dioxide so as to
provide some guide, use of a single lifetime can be
misleading.
Other factors influencing climate
change
In recent years there has been more recognition and
quantification of the role of anthropogenic aerosols
(microscopic particles in the atmosphere) in climate
change. Of particular importance are those which
originate from the sulphur containing gases emitted
from power stations – effluents which also give rise
to the acid rain problem. These aerosols reflect sun-
light and so tend to cool the earth’s surface. However,
they are very short lived (a few days) and so are
concentrated near industrial regions. Locally their
cooling effect can be comparable in magnitude to the
warming effect of the increase of greenhouse gases.
However, it is important to realise that their effect
on the climate is not confined to the regions where
they are concentrated, so their impact on climate
change is not a simple offset to that of the greenhouse
gases. Their effect in the future will be limited by the
increasing recognition of the requirement to avoid
the deleterious effects of acid rain.
In Fig. 4 are illustrated estimates of the globally
averaged radiative forcing (a measure of influence on
global climate) of aerosols from different sources
compared with that due to increases in greenhouse
gases, from preindustrial times to the present. Also
shown is an estimate based on the best information
available of the radiative forcing which may have
occurred as a result of variations in the incident solar
radiation during this period.
Has anthropogenic climate
change been observed?
Can the observed warming in recent years be attri-
buted to the increase in greenhouse gases? The 1990
IPCC assessment concluded that there was insufficient
evidence to argue that the anthropogenic climate
‘signal’ had emerged from the ‘noise’ of climate
variability. The 1995 IPCC assessment was more
positive and included the sentence – agreed after a
long and lively debate – ‘The balance of evidence
suggests a discernible human influence on climate.’
Work since 1995 has provided stronger evidence that
most of the warming observed over the last fifty years
is attributable to human activities. Figure 5 illustrates
the agreement that now exists for the global mean
surface temperature for the twentieth century between
observations and simulations with the best climate
models that take into account both anthropogenic
and natural forcings.

250 INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 2001, VOL. 26, NO. 4


5 Global annual mean temperature changes from
1860 to 2000 as simulated by the UK Hadley
Centre climate model, compared with obser-
vations over the same period: the band of model
results presented is for four runs with the same
model; natural forcings included are solar vari-
ation and volcanic activity
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Modelling climate change
To ascertain the surface temperature change to be
expected from an increase in radiative forcing,
information about the forcing from different constit-
uents such as those in Fig. 4 is introduced as input
into a radiative transfer model of the average atmos-
phere. On the assumption that nothing else changes
apart from the temperature of the surface and lower
atmosphere, a relatively simple calculation can be
made of the increase in global average surface air
temperature which occurs for a radiative forcing of
4 W m−2, the value appropriate to an increase of
carbon dioxide concentration to 560 ppm, double its
preindustrial value. It turns out to be about 1·2°C.
In reality, of course, many other factors will
change, some in ways that add to the warming
(positive feedbacks) others in ways that might reduce
the warming (negative feedbacks). Examples of posi-
tive feedbacks which are understood reasonably well
are those due to water vapour (a warmer atmosphere
on average means increased water vapour content)
and to changes in ice cover (decrease of ice cover
means more absorption of solar radiation at the
surface). The magnitude of the feedback resulting
from changes in cloud cover and type, which may be
positive or negative and which may vary from place
to place, is still not well understood.
The situation is therefore much more complex than
the simple calculation suggests. When the feedbacks
are taken into account, the best estimate at the
present time, should a doubling of preindustrial
carbon dioxide occur, is that the rise in global average
surface air temperature would be in the range 1·5 to
4·5°C (the reason for this relatively large range is to
take into account the uncertainty in the cloud feed-
back) with a best estimate of 2·5°C.
When compared with the temperature changes we
commonly experience, a rise of 2·5°C does not seem
very large. But remember it is a rise in the average
temperature over the whole globe. Between the middle
of an ice age and the warm periods in between ice
ages, the global average temperature changes by only
about 5 or 6°C (Fig. 1). So should the 2·5°C rise
occur over a century or less, the change is large in
the context of climate change; it would in fact rep-
resent a change of climate more rapid than has been
experienced by the earth at any time during the last
ten thousand years.
So far the discussion has been in terms of changes
in the global average, which provides a good overall
indicator of the amount and rate of climate change.
However, the character of change will be far from
uniform over the earth’s surface; it will vary enor-
mously with location. What concerns human com-
munities is the detail of climate change in their
particular region. To elucidate the detail of climate
change, computer models of the climate system are
employed. The most highly developed of these are
general circulation models (GCMs) which include the
basic mathematical equations describing the system
physics and dynamics and which couple these for
both the atmospheric and oceanic circulations. They
are more complex versions of the GCMs which are
employed for day to day weather forecasting. To
achieve adequate resolution in space and time, they
are run on the largest computers available, which can
then simulate climate variations and change over
model runs which cover many centuries of simulated
time. In most advanced countries of the world there
are laboratories where such sophisticated models are
available.
The most important feature of these climate models
is that they are able adequately to sum the effects
arising from the wide variety of processes which occur
within the atmosphere and oceans so as to give the
overall response. Because all the processes are non-
linear in character they cannot be added up in any
other way.
Climate models are validated by assessing how well
they describe the details of current climate both in
terms of its average and variability. Comparison can
also be made with observations for model simulations
of past climates, of major climate regimes such as
those associated with the El Niño phenomena, and
of climatic perturbations such as those associated
with volcanic eruptions. For all these the latest models
show impressive skill in simulation.
Future anthropogenic climate
change
To project anthropogenic climate change into the
future, estimates of future emissions of greenhouse
gases are first required. These will depend on the
assumptions made about such factors as the likely
growth of the world economy, the availability of
fossil fuels, and the degree of pressure for environ-
mental change. For carbon dioxide, several such
scenarios are illustrated in Fig. 3. The upper estimates
INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 2001, VOL. 26, NO. 4 251
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6 From 1000–1860, observations of variations in average surface temperature of the northern hemisphere
(adequate data from the southern hemisphere not available) constructed from proxy data (tree rings,
corals, ice cores, and historical records): the line shows the fifty year average, the grey region the 95%
confidence limit in the annual data. Data for 1860–2000 are as in Fig. 2. From 2000 to 2100 projections
are of globally averaged surface temperature for the six illustrative scenarios from the IPCC’s 2000
‘Special report on emission scenarios’ (SRES) and the earlier IPCC scenario IS92a, as estimated by a
model with average climate sensitivity. The grey region labelled ‘several models all SRES envelope’
shows the range of results from the full range of thirty-five SRES scenarios in addition to those from a
range of models with different climate sensitivities

assume high economic growth coupled with little
pressure for reduction in emissions for environmental
reasons. Under these scenarios emissions of carbon
dioxide into the atmosphere due to human activities,
currently about seven billion tonnes of carbon per
year, rise to up to twenty billion tonnes by the year
2100. The lowest estimate derives from a scenario
assuming strong environmental pressure, leading by
2100 to stabilisation of the carbon dioxide concen-
tration at about 450 ppm, about 60% above its prein-
dustrial level.
Other greenhouse gases will also increase in concen-
tration. For instance, methane (the anthropogenic
sources of which are mainly related to cattle farming,
rice cultivation, the oil and gas industry, and landfill )
may double in concentration by 2100. Because of
other environmental problems (for example acid
rain), aerosol concentrations from anthropogenic
sources are not likely to grow substantially, and
might even on average reduce from their present level.
From the projections of the concentrations of
carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, estimates
may be made from climate models of the associated
increases in global mean surface air temperature.
Figure 6 shows the projections to the year 2100 for
the range of six scenarios published by the IPCC in
its special report on emission scenarios (see ‘Further
reading’), showing increases in the range 1·4 to 5·8°C
by 2100. Figure 6 compares these increases with the
variations in global mean surface temperature over
the past hundred and forty years as in Fig. 2 as well
as the variations for the northern hemisphere (not
enough data exist for the southern hemisphere) esti-
mated from proxy data for the past millennium.
The greatest uncertainties in the projection of cli-
mate change in the twenty-first century arise from
our lack of knowledge of (1) the future profiles of
emissions of greenhouse gases, (2) some of the feed-
backs in the climate system, especially those arising
from changes in cloudiness, (3) changes in the ocean
circulation, and (4) changes in the biosphere. Because
of these factors, projections of climate change on the
regional scale possess greater uncertainty than those
of global averages. Increased understanding of these
issues will come from combining more accurate obser-
vations possessing better coverage with careful model
simulations.
Impacts of climate change
Expressing climate change in terms of the increase in
global average temperature is not very meaningful

252 INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 2001, VOL. 26, NO. 4


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7 Land affected in Bangladesh by various
amounts of sea level rise
for most of us. What about its impacts on our lives?
In some locations, the impacts may be positive. For
instance, for some crops, increased carbon dioxide
aids growth and at high northern latitudes the grow-
ing season will be longer. However, because humans
and ecosystems have adapted closely to the current
climate, most of the impacts will be deleterious. The
most important impacts are likely to be on sea level,
changes in rainfall, and temperature extremes. These
impacts are considered in turn.
Sea level rise
The expected rise in sea level of about half a metre
(range from 0·1 to 0·9 m) by the year 2100 arises
mostly from the expansion of water in the oceans
because of the increased temperature and the melting
of glaciers; the contribution from changes in the ice
sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic is expected to
be small. As more of the ocean warms, sea level
will continue to rise for many centuries, even if
the greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilised.
Adaptation, at a cost, to a rise of a metre or less will
be possible in many coastal regions. However, adap-
tation will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, in
some particularly vulnerable areas such as the delta
regions of large rivers in Bangladesh (Fig. 7), Egypt,
and Southern China and the many low lying islands
in the Indian and Pacific oceans. The situation in
many of these areas will be exacerbated because the
land is sinking for other reasons, for instance tectonic
movement and the extraction of groundwater, at a
similar rate to the sea level rises expected from global
warming. Substantial loss of land will occur in these
areas and many millions of people (six million live
8 Changes in frequency of occurrence of different
daily rainfalls with doubled carbon dioxide con-
centration, as simulated by the Australian
CSIRO model: note that small rates of rainfall
tend to reduce, whilst large rainfall rates tend
to become larger
below the one metre contour in Bangladesh) are likely
to be displaced.
Impact on water availability
Water is becoming an increasingly valuable resource.
Demand for water increased by a factor of ten in the
twentieth century, particularly in countries where it
is extensively used for irrigation. There are already
significant tensions especially in regions where the
water from major river systems is shared between
nations. It is not surprising that Boutros Boutros-
Ghali, the former Secretary-General of the UN, has
suggested that wars in the future are likely to be
about water rather than oil.
A major impact of global warming is likely to be
on water supplies. Warming of the earth’s surface
means greater evaporation and, on average, a higher
water vapour content in the atmosphere that in turn
leads to a more vigorous hydrological cycle. This
means an increased tendency to heavy rainfall, leading
to an increasing possibility of floods in some places.
It also means, perhaps surprisingly, an increased
tendency to less rainfall and hence periods of drought
in other places, because of the interaction of the more
vigorous hydrological cycle with the atmospheric
circulation. Although the reliability of climate models
is limited as far as regional detail is concerned, they
provide some estimates of the likely effects (Fig. 8).
Many parts of the world are likely to see substantial
changes in rainfall patterns and the availability of
soil moisture. Those likely to be most seriously affec-
ted are those with periods of particularly heavy
rainfall (for example the regions covered by the Asian
summer monsoon) and those with marginal rainfall.
Impacts on food and health
Studies of global food supplies in a globally warmed
world tend to suggest that the global quantity of
available food might not be affected by very much –
some regions might be able to grow more while others
grow less. However, the distribution of food pro-
INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 2001, VOL. 26, NO. 4 253

9 The ‘contraction and convergence’ proposal of
the Global Commons Institute: global carbon
emissions from fossil fuel use 1860–1990 show-
ing share amongst groups of countries, then as
projected for a scenario leading to eventual
stabilisation of atmospheric carbon dioxide con-
centration at 450 ppm. By 2030 it is assumed
that the sharing of emissions has converged to
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be on the basis of equal per capita emissions
rights
duction will change, not least because of changed
water availability. The regions likely to be adversely
affected are those in developing countries in the
subtropics where there are rapidly growing popu-
lations. In areas where agricultural production
becomes inadequate to meet local needs there could
be large numbers of environmental refugees.
Other important impacts of the likely climate
change are on human health (increased heat stress
and more widespread vector borne diseases such as
malaria) and on the health of some ecosystems (for
example forests) which will not be able to adapt
rapidly enough to match the rate of climate change.
Costing the impact of climate change
It is not an easy task to estimate the likely cost to
the world community of the impacts briefly listed
above. For a costing to be at all realistic, especially
when it is to apply to periods of decades into the
future, it must account not only for direct damage
but also for the possibilities of adaptation. However,
even though many of the attempts at costing are
relatively crude, they help to provide an idea of the
size of the problem.
The most detailed cost studies of the impacts of
climate change in a world with carbon dioxide con-
centration doubled from its preindustrial level have
been carried out for the USA. For those impacts
against which some value of damage can be placed
(for example sea level rise, change in water supplies,
increased morbidity owing to heat stress), estimates
of annual cost fall in the range of about 1 to 1·5%
of GDP. For other countries in the developed world,
estimates of the cost of impacts are generally similar
to those for the USA. For developing countries,
estimates are typically larger, in the range 2 to 9%
of GDP.
254 INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 2001, VOL. 26, NO. 4
In considering such estimates it must be realised
that there are important factors which they do not
take into account. One such factor is that they apply
to impacts when the carbon dioxide amount is
doubled from its preindustrial value. The longer term
impacts if carbon dioxide concentrations continue to
rise are likely to be much greater. Another factor is
that not all impacts can be quantified in terms of
economic costs. This point is emphasised by concen-
trating on those in some developing countries who
are likely to be particularly disadvantaged by anthro-
pogenic climate change and who might become
environmental refugees. One estimate is that there
could be more than a hundred and fifty million such
refugees by the year 2050.
Framework Convention on
Climate Change
Establishment of the FCCC
The Framework Convention on Climate Change
(FCCC ), signed by over a hundred and sixty count-
ries at the UN Conference on Environment and
Development (the Earth Summit) held in Rio de
Janeiro in June 1992, came into force on 21 March
1994. The convention sets the context in which inter-
national action regarding the issue of climate change
can be pursued. It recognises the reality of global
warming, recognises also the uncertainties associated
with current predictions of climate change, agrees
that action to mitigate the effects of climate change
needs to be taken, and points out that developed
countries should take the lead in this action.
In its consideration of an appropriate response to
the possibility of climate change, the FCCC applies
the precautionary principle. This is stated in article
3, where the parties to the convention are instructed to
take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or
minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its
adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious or
irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should
not be used as a reason for postponing such measures,
taking into account that policies and measures to deal
with climate change should be cost-effective so as to
ensure global benefits at the lowest possible cost.
The FCCC mentions one particular aim and one
longer term objective. The particular aim is that
developed countries (‘annex I countries’ in FCCC
parlance) should take action to return their green-
house gas emissions, in particular those of carbon
dioxide, to their 1990 levels by the year 2000. The
objective stated in article 2 says:
The ultimate objective of this Convention ... is to achieve
... stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such
a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient
to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change,
to ensure that food production is not threatened and to
enable economic development to proceed in a sus-
tainable manner.
 In this statement of its objective, the FCCC places
action concerning climate change clearly in the con-
text of sustainable development. The balance that
this implies between environmental protection on
the one hand and economic development on the
other must be based on the best possible scientific,
economic, and technical analyses of all the factors
involved. The IPCC is the international body through
which the information is assessed and provided to
the FCCC.
What does the requirement for the stabilisation of
the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases,
expressed in the objective of the FCCC, imply? For
methane it is easy to estimate what this would mean.
For instance, to stabilise methane at today’s concen-
tration would require a reduction in anthropogenic
emissions by about 8%. For carbon dioxide the
situation is more complex. It is already clear from
impact studies (most of which have been made for
carbon dioxide concentrations of about 550 ppm)
that politicians and decision makers are likely to be
Published by Maney Publishing (c) IOM Communications Ltd
looking at stabilisation levels below 550 ppm. To
achieve stabilisation at such levels, emissions should
not rise much during the first half of the twenty-first
century and should decrease substantially below
today’s levels during the second half of the century.
An example of such a profile providing for stabilis-
ation at about 450 ppm by the year 2100 has been
given in Fig. 3 (see also Fig. 9).
The Framework Convention on Climate Change is
rooted in the confidence that the science of climate
change as expounded by the IPCC is basically sound
and that adequate and appropriate technology is
available to enable the necessary reductions in the
emissions of greenhouse gases to occur.
Kyoto Protocol
The first conference of parties to the FCCC was held
in Berlin in April 1995; it was agreed that a plan of
action should be prepared for agreement in 1997.
That plan was agreed by the parties in the Kyoto
Protocol of December 1997. Further agreements were
reached (although without the USA) in July 2001.
Under the protocol, which has yet to be ratified by
many countries, developed countries agreed by 2010
to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases (all
significant greenhouse gases being included in the
calculation) by amounts which generally varied from
5 to 8% below their 1990 levels. The Kyoto Protocol
provides for the first time for binding agreements
between nations. Although the reductions provided
for are modest compared with what will eventually
be required, they represent an important first step in
the long political process that will continue and
gather momentum over the next decades. The
full impact of the newly elected President Bush’s
announcement earlier this year that the USA would
not ratify, indeed would withdraw from, the Kyoto
Protocol has yet to emerge, however as the USA is
responsible for almost a quarter of global emissions
into the atmosphere, this change in policy represents
at the very least a serious setback for the aims and
objectives of the protocol.
Mitigation of climate change
Actions to mitigate climate change
To mitigate the effects of global warming, action is
required to increase the sinks which remove carbon
dioxide from the atmosphere (for example by reduc-
ing deforestation and increasing afforestation or by
sequestration of carbon dioxide) and to reduce the
emissions of both carbon dioxide and methane from
anthropogenic sources.
Forestry
Over the past century the destruction of forests has
contributed significantly to the increasing concen-
tration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Recent
decades have seen loss of tropical forests, averaged
over the globe, of about 1% per annum. Halting this
deforestation (which would also be good for other
reasons) and encouraging afforestation could make a
significant contribution to the sequestering of carbon
from the atmosphere. For instance, if an area of a
hundred thousand square kilometres (approximately
the area of the island of Ireland) were planted each
year for forty years, by the year 2040 the area planted
would be roughly equivalent to half the area of
Australia. By the time the new forests matured –
between forty and a hundred years after planting,
depending on the type of forest – between twenty-
five and fifty gigatonnes of carbon would have been
sequestered, that is between 5 and 10% of the emis-
sions of carbon into the atmosphere from fossil fuel
burning over a fifty year period. Studies show that
land for such a planting programme is potentially
available.
Methane reduction
Methane is an important greenhouse gas: its increas-
ing atmospheric concentration since preindustrial
times has contributed about a fifth of the enhanced
greenhouse effect to date. A reduction of anthropo-
genic emissions by around 10% would lead to stabil-
isation of the atmospheric methane concentration.
Reductions in methane emissions can be achieved by
paying attention to leaks from pipelines, by reducing
the amount of waste going to landfill sites and
collecting the gas it emits, by reducing deforestation,
and by reducing the methane arising from agricul-
tural sources.
Sequestration of carbon dioxide
A number of possibilities exist for sequestration of
the carbon dioxide from fossil fuel emissions. The
most promising is to pump it down into porous rocks,
for instance into spent or partially spent gas or oil
wells where it can be used to increase the gas or oil
yield. Such sequestration is already occurring. For
instance, a company in Norway, where there is a
carbon tax, has found it economic to sequester
INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 2001, VOL. 26, NO. 4 255
 unwanted carbon dioxide in a gas well rather than
pay the tax that would be required if it were released
to the atmosphere.
Energy generation and use
Two approaches are possible to reduce emissions of
carbon dioxide in the energy industry: to become
much more efficient in the generation and use of
energy or to provide for energy supply from non-
fossil fuel sources.
Substantial increases in the average efficiency of
energy supply have occurred in recent years but there
is plenty of room for further improvement. For
instance, technologies are available for increasing the
efficiencies of coal fired power stations for electricity
generation (typically still no more than about 35%)
and there is large potential for the growth of com-
bined heat and power (CHP) generation (with a
typical overall efficiency of around 80%).
In most energy uses, energy is employed
inefficiently; only a few per cent of primary energy is
Published by Maney Publishing (c) IOM Communications Ltd
turned into effective use, the rest being wasted. There
is enormous potential to increase the efficiency of
energy use in buildings, in industry, in domestic
appliances, and in transport. Let me list some of the
possibilities:
$ improved design of buildings (around 35% of
energy is used in buildings) through higher build-
ing standards (for example in insulation), together
with the integration through changes in engineer-
ing practice of different areas of design and con-
struction so as to minimise energy use – over half
the energy used in buildings could thus be saved
$ improved electrical appliances ( low energy light
bulbs, refrigerators with better insulation, and so
on), again designed to minimise energy use
$ development and marketing of more efficient
vehicles, for instance hybrid vehicles (which com-
bine small petrol or diesel engines with electric
propulsion) and vehicles employing fuel cells.
The rapid development and growth of renewable
energy sources (i.e. those not dependent on fossil
fuels) is key to future sustainable energy provision.
A number of such sources are poised for growth. In
appropriate locations wind energy can be supplied at
a price which is becoming competitive with fossil fuel
sources. Power stations employing waste materials or
renewable biomass as fuel are being developed. Solar
energy, especially using photovoltaic cells as a source
of electricity (with hydrogen produced electrolytically
as a storage medium), is likely to become one of the
major sources of world energy in due course. There
are also possibilities for the development of wave and
tidal energy sources.
All the developments I have mentioned require
substantial research and development, a matter which
is of major concern. Particularly worrying is the trend
over the last ten years for reduction in R&D invest-
ment in energy supply and usage technologies. As
markets have increasingly taken over energy supply,
long term investment in R&D is being carried out
256 INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 2001, VOL. 26, NO. 4
neither by governments nor by the energy industry
on the same scale as previously. For instance, since
1983 government R&D in the energy field has fallen
in some developed countries by a factor of ten, and
worldwide on average by a factor of three, so that it
accounts now for only about 0·04% of world GNP –
a very small sum compared with the capital invest-
ment in the energy industry, which runs at nearly 4%
of world GNP. If the greater efficiency mentioned
above and the necessary growth in renewable energy
sources is to be achieved, much greater support for
R&D by both industry and government must be
forthcoming.
Contraction and convergence
There are three important principles that govern
international action on a problem such as climate
change: first is the precautionary principle, clearly
embedded in the FCCC, which states that the exist-
ence of uncertainty should not preclude the taking of
appropriate action; second is the principle that ‘the
polluter pays’, which implies the imposition of meas-
ures such as carbon taxes and carbon trading arrange-
ments; and third is the principle of equity, both
international and intergenerational.
A proposal put forward by the Global Commons
Institute called ‘contraction and convergence’ takes
these three principles on board. It also illustrates well
the major technical and political problems of achiev-
ing the large reductions in carbon dioxide emissions
that are very likely to be necessary. Figure 9 shows
the profile of global emissions that would be needed
to bring stabilisation of the atmospheric carbon diox-
ide concentration at 450 ppm, which would in turn
stabilise the climate impact, taking into account also
the likely increase in other greenhouse gases, at
approximately that due to doubled preindustrial
carbon dioxide. That is the ‘contraction’ part of the
proposal. The other part of the proposal addresses
how the reductions are to be shared out between
countries. It suggests that the simplest and fairest
way to do this is to share carbon dioxide emissions
equally per capita and to converge (hence ‘conver-
gence’) to a situation of equal shares by, say, 2030.
The diagram shows how, on this basis, emissions
would be shared between countries. The further part
of the proposal is that, having allocated profiles of
emissions between countries, trading of these alloca-
tions would be allowed. If carried out responsibly,
this trading could act to transfer economic and techni-
cal resources to developing countries, enabling their
programmes of industrialisation to be carried forward
in ways that have minimum impact on the environ-
ment. Although there are clearly many practical
difficulties in its realisation, this ‘contraction and
convergence’ proposal is one way in which what is
necessary could be achieved.
Achievement of change and the likely
cost
Figure 9 demonstrates by way of an example the
enormous technical and political problems involved
 in any solution to the problem of achieving the
necessary reduction in the use of fossil fuels. But can
the world’s energy industry contemplate the changes
required? In a detailed study by the World Energy
Council of energy generation and use next century,
an ‘ecologically driven’ scenario is described (see
Fig. 3) associated with which there would be a profile
of carbon dioxide emissions similar to the 450 ppm
stabilisation curve shown in Fig. 9. The World Energy
Council show how this can be achieved – particularly
by strong drives to increase energy efficiency and to
develop the use of energy sources with much lower
carbon dioxide emissions of the kind mentioned
above. Under this scenario, by 2020, ‘new’ renewable
energy sources make up 12% of total energy pro-
vision. Further, also by 2020, as developing countries
industrialise, they are projected to roughly double
their energy use and carbon dioxide emissions, while
developed countries are projected to reduce their
energy use by about 10% and their carbon dioxide
emissions by about 30%. Estimates of the annual cost
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of realising such a scenario suggest figures of 1% or
less of Global World Product (GWP), which is con-
siderably less than most of the estimates which econ-
omists have made of the damage likely to result from
climate change impacts.
However, with the availability of cheap energy
being seen as the engine for industrial and economic
growth, reductions in carbon dioxide emissions are
not going to come easily. A large challenge to econ-
omists and to governments is to devise appropriate
economic instruments and incentives to bring about
the large increases in efficiency and the switch to non-
fossil fuel energy sources which are necessary.
To achieve adequate mitigation of climate change
will require commitment from all sections of the
community. The challenge therefore is to scientists to
improve the base of knowledge of climate change
and its impacts, to governments to commit themselves
to action adequately to address the problems of
climate change and its mitigation, and to industry to
develop and market the technologies required to
reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The
transfer of technology from developed to developing
countries will also be important: the FCCC has
emphasised the benefits which will accrue to industries
in both the developed and developing worlds.
Commitment is also required from all of us as individ-
uals to take seriously the challenge of environmental
stewardship. Furthermore, the matter is an urgent
one. As the World Energy Council points out, ‘the
real challenge is to communicate the reality that the
switch to alternative forms of supply will take many
decades, and thus the realisation of the need and the
commencement of the appropriate action must be
now’ [their italics].
Acknowledgements
Figures 2, 4, and 5 are reproduced from the ‘Summary
for policymakers’ of the IPCC’s 2001 report and
Fig. 6 from the fourth volume of the full report
(‘Synthesis report’); Fig. 3 is taken from the World
Energy Council’s report ‘Global energy perspectives’
(1998, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press); and
Fig. 8 comes from the IPCC’s report ‘Climate change
1992’ (1992, Cambridge, Cambridge University
Press).
Further reading
Further detailed information about global warming
can be found in the IPCC reports: the most recent is
‘Climate change 2001’, published in four volumes
(‘The scientific basis’, ‘Impacts, adaptation and vul-
nerability’, ‘Mitigation’, and ‘Synthesis report’) by
Cambridge University Press (there is also a ‘Summary
for policymakers’); another important IPCC text is
the 2000 ‘Special report on emission scenarios’
(often referred to as SRES). My own book ‘Global
warming: the complete briefing’ (2nd edn; 1997,
Cambridge, Cambridge University Press) provides a
comprehensive account of the science, impacts, and
mitigation of climate change. A challenging assess-
ment of the potential for increases in energy efficiency
can be found in .  , . . , and
. . : ‘Factor four: doubling wealth, halving
resource use’; 1997, London, Earthscan Publications.
Detailed projections for the global energy industry
are given in . , . , and .
 (ed.): ‘Global energy perspectives’; 1998,
Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
Sir John Houghton
IPCC Working Group One
Co-Chair
Hadley Centre
Meteorological Office
London Road
Bracknell
Berks. RG12 2SY
UK
Sir John Houghton, CBE, FRS is co-chair of the Science
Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change. He was born at Dyserth, Clwyd and
educated at Rhyl Grammar School and Jesus College,
Oxford. He was Professor of Atmospheric Physics at the
University of Oxford from 1976 to 1983, Chief Executive
of the Meteorological Office from 1983 until his retire-
ment in 1991, Chairman of the Royal Commission on
Environmental Pollution from 1992 to 1998, and a member
of the UK Government Panel on Sustainable Development
from 1994 to 2000. Amongst many awards he has received
gold medals from the Royal Meteorological Society
and the Royal Astronomical Society, the prestigious
International Meteorological Organization Prize, and
honorary doctorates from a number of UK universities.
He has authored several books, including ‘Global warming:
the complete briefing’ (1997) and ‘The search for God: can
science help?’ (1995).
INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 2001, VOL. 26, NO. 4 257