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pertemuan 3

# pertemuan 3

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05/11/2010

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Lecture 3: Probability Theory

2
Assigning probabilities to EventsAssigning probabilities to Events
Random experiment
–
a random experiment is a process or course of action, whose outcome is uncertain.
–
Performing the same random experimentrepeatedly, may result in different outcomes,therefore, the best we can do is talk about the
probability of occurrence of a certainoutcome.
–
To determine the probabilities we need todefine the possible outcomes first.

3
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Determining the outcomes.
Build an exhaustive list of all possibleoutcomes.
Make sure the listed outcomes aremutually exclusive.
–
A list of outcomes that meet the twoconditions above, is called a
sample space.
Sample Space
a sample space of a random experiis a list of all possible outcomes of texperiment. The outcomes must bemutually exclusive and exhaustive.
imple events
he individual outcomes are called simple events.imple events cannot be further decomposedto constituent outcomes.

Event
An event is any collectionof one or more simple even
Our objective is todetermine
P(
A
),
thprobability thatevent
A
will occur.

Our objective is todetermine
P(
A
),
thprobability thatevent
A
will occur.

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