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2025
OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS
A Research PaperPresented ToAir Force
2025
byLt Col Jack A. Jackson, Jr., PhD, AFITLt Col Brian L. Jones, PhD, AFITMaj Lee J. Lehmkuhl, DrSci, AFITwith major contributions fromCol Gregory S. Parnell, USAF Ret., PhD, VCUCol Gerald A. Hasen, PhD, AFITLt Col Gregg H. Gunsch, PhD, AFITLt Col John M. Andrew, PhD, AWCMaj Thomas A. Buter, PhD, AFITMaj Harry W. Conley, ACSCMaj Robert F. Mills, PhD, AFITJune 1996
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Disclaimer
2025
is a study designed to comply with a directive from the chief of staff of the Air Force to examine theconcepts, capabilities, and technologies the United States will require to remain the dominant air and spaceforce in the future. Presented on 17 June 1996, this report was produced in the Department of Defense schoolenvironment of academic freedom and in the interest of advancing concepts related to national defense. Theviews expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of theUnited States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States government.This report contains fictional representations of future situations/scenarios. Any similarities to real people orevents, other than those specifically cited, are unintentional and are for purposes of illustration only.Mention of various programs or technologies throughout this paper does not imply Air Force or DODendorsement of either the mission, the program, or adoption of the technology.This publication has been reviewed by security and policy review authorities, is unclassified, and is clearedfor public release.
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Contents
Chapter Page
Disclaimer..........................................................................................................................................iiIllustrations........................................................................................................................................ivTables.................................................................................................................................................vExecutive Summary...........................................................................................................................vi 1 Challenge and Response.......................................................................................................................1 2 Meeting the Challenge...........................................................................................................................4Methodology.................................................................................................................................4Comparing Analysis Tools...........................................................................................................5Value-Focused Thinking...............................................................................................................6Value.......................................................................................................................................6Objectives, Functions, Tasks, and Subtasks............................................................................6Force Qualities.......................................................................................................................7Measures of Merit and Scoring Functions...............................................................................7Value Model...........................................................................................................................7Weights...................................................................................................................................8 3 The Search for the
Value Model..................................................................................................9Developing the
............................................................10Objective..............................................................................................................................10A Bottom-Up Approach........................................................................................................10Functions...............................................................................................................................10Force Qualities.....................................................................................................................13Measures of Merit and Scoring Functions...................................................................................13Analytic Advances......................................................................................................................14System Identification...................................................................................................................16Alternate Futures.........................................................................................................................17 4 Weighting and Scoring........................................................................................................................19Weighting the
Value Model Across Alternate Futures..................................19Computing System Performance Using Scoring Functions..........................................................20Technology Identifying and Scoring............................................................................................20Scoring the Systems....................................................................................................................21Scoring the Technologies............................................................................................................30 5 Conclusions.........................................................................................................................................38Major Implications of the
Operational Analysis................................................................38Operational Analysis Lessons Learned.......................................................................................41Study Limitations........................................................................................................................41Major Implications for the Future...............................................................................................42
Sections
« prev | next »- Challenge and Response
- Meeting the Challenge
- Methodology
- Comparing Analysis Tools
- Value-Focused Thinking
- Value
- Objectives, Functions, Tasks, and Subtasks
- Force Qualities
- Measures of Merit and Scoring Functions
- Value Model
- Weights
- The Search for the 2025 Value Model
- Developing the 2025 Value Model—Foundations 2025
- Objective
- A Bottom-Up Approach
- Functions
- Figure 3-1. Complete Listing of Tasks and Subtasks
- Analytic Advances
- System Identification
- Alternate Futures
- Weighting and Scoring
- Weighting the Foundations 2025 Value Model Across Alternate Futures
- Computing System Performance Using Scoring Functions
- Technology Identifying and Scoring
- Scoring the Systems
- Scoring the Technologies
- Technology Assessment
- Technology Development Leaders for High Leverage Technologies
- Major Implications of the 2025 Operational Analysis
- Operational Analysis Lessons Learned
- Study Limitations
- Major Implications for the Future
- Summary
- Foundations 2025 Value Model
- System Descriptions
- Alternate Futures Weights
- Figure C-2. AU Team Weights - Gulliver's Travail Future
- Figure C-4. AU Team Weights - Digital Cacophony Future
- Technology Model
- Bibliography
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