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The great American philosopher Yogi Berra once noted: “It’s tough to makepredictions, especially about the uture.” Most orecasts or 2009, including ours,called or a fattening or even decline in LEED project registrations, mirroringthe general malaise in the market. However, LEED registered and certied foorarea in 2009 is estimated to grow by over 40% compared to last year’s totals, ora cumulative total o over 7 billion square eet worldwide since the standard waslaunched in 2000.
New Construction Registrations Exceed National Construction Starts
Dramatic declines in 2009 U.S. new non-residential construction might result inconstruction starts dipping below the one billion square oot mark or the rsttime in many years, yet registrations o LEED new construction projects in theU.S. are expected to exceed 1 billion square eet! Although the majority o LEEDprojects registered this year are unlikely to start construction this year, it is nothard to imagine that 25% or more o new non-residential construction startsbeing registered, which implies that in registrations the LEED Version 2 (V2)standard has pretty much ully penetrated the market.
Construction Industry Clambers Aboard ‘Green Lieboat’ but InternationalDisappoints
There may be a “lieboat eect” at work, where the marketis jumping to the hot trend in the hopes o dodging the economic bullet.Somewhat refecting this, membership in the USGBC is stronger than orecast,expecting to grow over 10% and top 20,000 or the rst time, compared with apredicted 3% decrease. As a category, International LEED projects showed thegreatest decline in foor area, partially refecting the assumption o certicationduties by Canada and India.
LEED 2009 Launches as Version 2 Sunsets
The other clear infuence on theyear-to-date registration gures is the sunsetting o the V2 standard as LEED2009 rolls out. In the run-up to the LEED Version 3, there was a huge spike inJune, with over 4,000 projects registering the month beore the deadline.
LEED Certied Floor Area Sets New Record
Over 350 million square eet o LEED buildings certied in 2009, tripling the record certication in 2008 andexceeding all certied foor area to date by more than 30%. As impressive as thisgure is, in 2010, certied foor area will need to almost triple again in order tokeep up with the explosion o registrations that began in 2007.
LEED EB is the Certication Champion and CI Surges
LEED or ExistingBuildings (EB) certied almost 15% more foor area in 2009—over 10 millionsquare eet—than did LEED or New Construction (NC) and added over 65%new foor area, which to us signals a welcome trend toward the green operationo buildings. Last year, we did not include LEED or Commercial Interiors (CI)in our calculations. CI registered foor area almost tripled to over 200 millionsquare eet this year, and showed similar growth in certications.
Overall, LEED’s green impact shows some impressive numbers, but relative tothe problem still is not providing sucient contribution to halting unmanageableclimate change.
E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y