8
Climate Modelsand Their Evaluation
Coordinating Lead Authors:
David A. Randall (USA), Richard A. Wood (UK)
Lead Authors:
Sandrine Bony (France), Robert Colman (Australia), Thierry Fichefet (Belgium), John Fyfe (Canada), Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation), Andrew Pitman (Australia), Jagadish Shukla (USA), Jayaraman Srinivasan (India), Ronald J. Stouffer (USA), Akimasa Sumi (Japan),Karl E. Taylor (USA)
Contributing Authors:
K. AchutaRao (USA), R. Allan (UK), A. Berger (Belgium), H. Blatter (Switzerland), C. Bonfils (USA, France), A. Boone (France, USA),C. Bretherton (USA), A. Broccoli (USA), V. Brovkin (Germany, Russian Federation), W. Cai (Australia), M. Claussen (Germany),P. Dirmeyer (USA), C. Doutriaux (USA, France), H. Drange (Norway), J.-L. Dufresne (France), S. Emori (Japan), P. Forster (UK), A. Frei (USA), A. Ganopolski (Germany), P. Gent (USA), P. Gleckler (USA), H. Goosse (Belgium), R. Graham (UK), J.M. Gregory (UK),R. Gudgel (USA), A. Hall (USA), S. Hallegatte (USA, France), H. Hasumi (Japan), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), H. Hendon (Australia),K. Hodges (UK), M. Holland (USA), A.A.M. Holtslag (Netherlands), E. Hunke (USA), P. Huybrechts (Belgium),W. Ingram (UK), F. Joos (Switzerland), B. Kirtman (USA), S. Klein (USA), R. Koster (USA), P. Kushner (Canada), J. Lanzante (USA),M. Latif (Germany), N.-C. Lau (USA), M. Meinshausen (Germany), A. Monahan (Canada), J.M. Murphy (UK), T. Osborn (UK),T. Pavlova (Russian Federationi), V. Petoukhov (Germany), T. Phillips (USA), S. Power (Australia), S. Rahmstorf (Germany),S.C.B. Raper (UK), H. Renssen (Netherlands), D. Rind (USA), M. Roberts (UK), A. Rosati (USA), C. Schär (Switzerland), A. Schmittner (USA, Germany), J. Scinocca (Canada), D. Seidov (USA), A.G. Slater (USA, Australia), J. Slingo (UK), D. Smith (UK),B. Soden (USA), W. Stern (USA), D.A. Stone (UK), K.Sudo (Japan), T. Takemura (Japan), G. Tselioudis (USA, Greece), M. Webb (UK),M. Wild (Switzerland)
Review Editors:
Elisa Manzini (Italy), Taroh Matsuno (Japan), Bryant McAvaney (Australia)
This chapter should be cited as:
Randall, D.A., R.A. Wood, S. Bony, R. Colman, T. Fichefet, J. Fyfe, V. Kattsov, A. Pitman, J. Shukla, J. Srinivasan, R.J. Stouffer, A. Sumiand K.E. Taylor, 2007: Cilmate Models and Their Evaluation. In:
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning,Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and NewYork, NY, USA.
590
Climate Models and Their Evaluation Chapter 8
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
....................................................591
8.1 Introduction and Overview
............................5948.1.1 What is Meant by Evaluation? .............................5948.1.2 Methods of Evaluation .........................................5948.1.3 How Are Models Constructed? ...........................596
8.2 Advances in Modelling
....................................5968.2.1 Atmospheric Processes .......................................6028.2.2 Ocean Processes ................................................6038.2.3 Terrestrial Processes ...........................................6048.2.4 Cryospheric Processes........................................6068.2.5 Aerosol Modelling and AtmosphericChemistry ............................................................6078.2.6 Coupling Advances .............................................6078.2.7 Flux Adjustments and Initialisation ......................607
8.3 Evaluation of Contemporary Climate asSimulated by Coupled Global Models
........ 6088.3.1 Atmosphere .........................................................6088.3.2 Ocean ..................................................................6138.3.3 Sea Ice .................................................................6168.3.4 Land Surface .......................................................6178.3.5 Changes in Model Performance ..........................618
8.4 Evaluation of Large-Scale ClimateVariability as Simulated by CoupledGlobal Models
.....................................................6208.4.1 Northern and Southern Annular Modes .............6208.4.2 Pacific Decadal Variability ..................................6218.4.3 Pacific-North American Pattern .........................6228.4.4 Cold Ocean-Warm Land Pattern ........................6228.4.5 Atmospheric Regimes and Blocking ..................6238.4.6 Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability ........................6238.4.7 El Niño-Southern Oscillation ..............................6238.4.8 Madden-Julian Oscillation ..................................6258.4.9 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation ..................................6258.4.10 Monsoon Variability ............................................6268.4.11 Shorter-Term Predictions UsingClimate Models ..................................................626
8.5 Model Simulations of Extremes
.....................6278.5.1 Extreme Temperature ..........................................6278.5.2 Extreme Precipitation ..........................................6288.5.3 Tropical Cyclones ................................................6288.5.4 Summary .............................................................629
8.6 Climate Sensitivity and Feedbacks
...............6298.6.1 Introduction .........................................................6298.6.2 Interpreting the Range of Climate SensitivityEstimates Among General Circulation Models ....629
Box 8.1: Upper-Tropospheric Humidity and WaterVapour Feedback
..............................................6328.6.3 Key Physical Processes Involved inClimate Sensitivity ...............................................6338.6.4 How to Assess Our Relative Confidence inFeedbacks Simulated by Different Models?........639
8.7 Mechanisms Producing Thresholds andAbrupt Climate Change
...................................6408.7.1 Introduction .........................................................6408.7.2 Forced Abrupt Climate Change ...........................6408.7.3 Unforced Abrupt Climate Change .......................643
8.8 Representing the Global System withSimpler Models
....................................................6438.8.1 Why Lower Complexity? .....................................6438.8.2 Simple Climate Models.......................................6448.8.3 Earth System Models of IntermediateComplexity...........................................................644
Frequently Asked Question
FAQ 8.1:
How Reliable Are the Models Used to MakeProjections of Future Climate Change?
..................600
References
........................................................................648
Supplementary Material
The following supplementary material is available on CD-ROM and in on-line versions of this report.
Figures S8.1–S8.15:
Model Simulations for Different Climate Variables
Table S8.1:
MAGICC Parameter Values
591
Chapter 8 Climate Models and Their Evaluation
Executive Summary
This chapter assesses the capacity of the global climatemodels used elsewhere in this report for projecting futureclimate change. Con
fi
dence in model estimates of future climateevolution has been enhanced via a range of advances since theIPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR).Climate models are based on well-established physical principles and have been demonstrated to reproduce observedfeatures of recent climate (see Chapters 8 and 9) and past climatechanges (see Chapter 6). There is considerable con
fi
dence thatAtmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) provide credible quantitative estimates of future climatechange, particularly at continental and larger scales. Con
fi
dencein these estimates is higher for some climate variables (e.g.,temperature) than for others (e.g., precipitation). This summaryhighlights areas of progress since the TAR:• Enhanced scrutiny of models and expanded diagnosticanalysis of model behaviour have been increasinglyfacilitated by internationally coordinated efforts tocollect and disseminate output from model experiments performed under common conditions. This has encourageda more comprehensive and open evaluation of models.The expanded evaluation effort, encompassing a diversityof perspectives, makes it less likely that signi
fi
cant modelerrors are being overlooked.• Climate models are being subjected to morecomprehensive tests, including, for example, evaluationsof forecasts on time scales from days to a year. This morediverse set of tests increases con
fi
dence in the
fi
delitywith which models represent processes that affect climate projections.• Substantial progress has been made in understanding theinter-model differences in equilibrium climate sensitivity.Cloud feedbacks have been con
fi
rmed as a primary sourceof these differences, with low clouds making the largestcontribution. New observational and modelling evidencestrongly supports a combined water vapour-lapse ratefeedback of a strength comparable to that found inGeneral Circulation Models (approximately 1 W m
–2
°C
–1
,corresponding to around a 50% ampli
fi
cation of globalmean warming). The magnitude of cryospheric feedbacksremains uncertain, contributing to the range of modelclimate responses at mid- to high latitudes.• There have been ongoing improvements to resolution,computational methods and parametrizations, andadditional processes (e.g., interactive aerosols) have beenincluded in more of the climate models.• Most AOGCMs no longer use
fl
ux adjustments, whichwere previously required to maintain a stable climate.At the same time, there have been improvements inthe simulation of many aspects of present climate. Theuncertainty associated with the use of
fl
ux adjustmentshas therefore decreased, although biases and long-termtrends remain in AOGCM control simulations.• Progress in the simulation of important modes of climatevariability has increased the overall con
fi
dence in themodels’ representation of important climate processes.As a result of steady progress, some AOGCMs can nowsimulate important aspects of the El Niño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO). Simulation of the Madden-JulianOscillation (MJO) remains unsatisfactory.• The ability of AOGCMs to simulate extreme events,especially hot and cold spells, has improved. Thefrequency and amount of precipitation falling in intenseevents are underestimated.• Simulation of extratropical cyclones has improved. Somemodels used for projections of tropical cyclone changescan simulate successfully the observed frequency anddistribution of tropical cyclones.• Systematic biases have been found in most models’simulation of the Southern Ocean. Since the SouthernOcean is important for ocean heat uptake, this results insome uncertainty in transient climate response.• The possibility that metrics based on observations might be used to constrain model projections of climate changehas been explored for the
fi
rst time, through the analysisof ensembles of model simulations. Nevertheless, a proven set of model metrics that might be used to narrowthe range of plausible climate projections has yet to bedeveloped.• To explore the potential importance of carbon cyclefeedbacks in the climate system, explicit treatment of the carbon cycle has been introduced in a few climateAOGCMs and some Earth System Models of IntermediateComplexity (EMICs).• Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexityhave been evaluated in greater depth than previously.Coordinated intercomparisons have demonstrated thatthese models are useful in addressing questions involvinglong time scales or requiring a large number of ensemblesimulations or sensitivity experiments.
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