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In my article Currencies - Long term forecast I analyzed the decline of the USD which
started in the middle of the 1980's and continued until the end of 2009. The 30 year
structure revealed a triangle like structure which I labeled as a large wave "B" that could be
completed in a couple of years.
It is interesting to see how the large "B" wave that spans over 3 decades fits into the larger
century structure. It also reveals that the future rise in the USD could be very large and
possibly take a long time.
Since I was unable to find a complete chart for the USD over the last 100 years, I have tried
to make a drawing to illustrate the development of the currency from 1920 to 2010
including my own forecast from 2010-2050.
A century view of the USD Index structure (The USD against a basket of currencies).
ElliottWaveTechnician 2009 all rights reserved. The box in the chart represents the
years 1980-2010 which I have labeled as a "B" wave. This structure is analysed in more
details on the next chart. The wave structure shows that the dollar has been in decline for
the entire twentieth century. However, the big decline was during 1960's and 1970's which
is labeled as wave III.
A large "B" wave decline commenced from the middle of the 1980's and is still in progress
but should be completed in a couple of years. Since an "e" wave correction in 2011/2012
can be shallow, most likely the historical low was in 2008.
The next should then be a gigantic rise in wave "C" shown with a rising dotted line. Given
the size of the overall structure the "C" is likely to rise into the 2020's.