* sais . a - DRAFT WORKING PAPERS. as ger Mar 25) Asséssing the Relationship Between Traq anid al Qaida:se WORKING PAPERS a DRAFT.WORKING PAPERS: Fundamental Problems with How Intelligence Community is Assessing Information + Application of a standard that would not normally obtain , = "IC does not normally require juridical evidence to Support a finding + Consistent underestimation of importance that would be attached by Iraq and al Qaida to hiding a relationship “— Especially when operational security is very. good, “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence” 7 + ‘Assumption that secularists and Islamists will not cooperate, even when they have common interests :| | | | swans DRAFT WORKING PAPERS, Spectrum of Possibilities Characterizing Relationship between Iraq and al Qaida [ 9 eae fa nel Open hostility; Non-Aggression: Senir-Tevel Cooperation — Coordination Formal, no contacts or Contacts : acknowledged cooperation : closé relationship Relationship may change over time a carers 3