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Analysis of For Casting Techniques Example - Quantitative Decision Making

Analysis of For Casting Techniques Example - Quantitative Decision Making

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Forcasting Techniques Example Of Quantitative Decision Making
Forcasting Techniques Example Of Quantitative Decision Making

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Published by: Khawaja Naveed Haider on Jan 11, 2010
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01/11/2010

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CASE 11.2: FORECASTING COLAs
1.
Weighted Moving Averages Method
Forecasting Constant 
 Span
3
Moving Averages
 Mean Abs Err 
0.79
Root Mean Sq Err 
0.90
Mean Abs Per% Err 
0.53%
Forecasted value for:
November 2002
 
181.00 
December 2002
 
181.10 
2.Exponential Smoothing (Simple)
Forecasting Constant (Optimized)
 Level (Alpha)
1.000
Simple Exponential 
 Mean Abs Err 
0.42
Root Mean Sq Err 
0.53
Mean Abs Per% Err 
0.28%
Forecasted value for:
November 2002
 
181.30 
December 2002
 
181.30 
3.
Double Exponential Smoothing (Holt’s Method)
Forecasting Constants (Optimized)
 Level (Alpha)
1.000
Trend (Beta)
0.000
Holt's Exponential 
 Mean Abs Err 
0.26
Root Mean Sq Err 
0.38
Mean Abs Per% Err 
0.17%
Forecasted value for:
November 2002
 
181.67 
December 2002
 
182.04
4.
Holt Winter’s Method for Additive Seasonal Effects

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