Outside the Box - Charlotte Kendra G. CastilloPurdue University Purdue Climate Change Research Center

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THINKING OUTSIDE the CARBON BOX:

Science and Policy Issues of Tropical Deforestation - Climate Feedbacks



Charlotte Kendra G. Castillo1,3, Kevi... (More) THINKING OUTSIDE the CARBON BOX:

Science and Policy Issues of Tropical Deforestation - Climate Feedbacks



Charlotte Kendra G. Castillo1,3, Kevin Robert Gurney1,3, Matt Huber1,3, Gerald Shively2,3
1Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University;

2Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University

3Purdue Climate Change Research Center (PCCRC)



In Cooperation with the World Agro-forestry Centre (ICRAF) and the Manila Observatory (MO)



With the release of the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the 2008 Bali Action Plan, tropical deforestation has emerged as a significant source of carbon emissions. Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) has become the center of an active discussion in the climate change science and policy community. But this focus on carbon sequestration in forests, although important, is incomplete in assessing the impacts of deforestation on climate change. Biosphere-atmosphere dynamics are affected by biogeophysical factors as profoundly as by the carbon cycle. Thus, we need a deeper understanding of how the terrestrial biosphere and climate interact in ways beyond just the carbon feedback in order to make better climate change projections and mitigation decisions.

Research to date has two critical limitations. The first is that coupled land-use/climate modeling has not incorporated realistic scenarios of deforestation nor has the sensitivity to the space-time patterns of deforestation been explored. Secondly, there also has been little attempt to include the dynamic feedbacks between socioeconomic constraints within tropical forests and the climate-biosphere system. Our ongoing research explores a more realistic evolution of deforestation scenarios and their coupling to the earth-atmosphere system through the integration of biogeophysical, biogeochemical, and human dimensions. We aim to analyze the impacts of different deforestation (or preservation) pathways, which may vary by the amount of forest remaining, the annual rates, and the region (South America, Central Africa or Southeast Asia) where deforestation is occurring.

This work is comprised of three stages: (1) offline sensitivity analysis using the Community Land Model (CLM ver. 3.5) with dynamic global vegetation, (2) fully-coupled sensitivity analysis using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3), and (3) the development and integration of a socio-economic module. Currently, the project is in the early stages of Phase 2, in which model code modifications tested in Phase 1 are incorporated into CCSM3. Modifications involve the forcing of “deforestation curves” through annual removal of trees in the tropics and control over establishment of new vegetation. Two annual deforestation rates are explored – 10% vs. 1% – while enforcing a 10% forest preservation target. Results of this preliminary rate sensitivity analysis reflect that deforestation pathways are likely to matter at least regionally as there are differences in the response of key biogeophysical parameters that affect climate. These results, in turn, will bear significantly on short- to long-term adaptation and mitigation – and overall development – initiatives.







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