The Evolving India - 2020

This assessment study looks at how various economic and demographic

parameters are evolving. It predicts conditions in India by 2020 if these
trends continue to move in the 2010s the same manner as they have been
over the 2000s
Overall GDP growth will be around
9.6% annually, even if the
government does not do anything.
It would be higher if agriculture and
electricity, gas and water supply are
able to break through their long term
institutional constraints.
It would be lower if inflation eats into
macro-economic stability and law and
order conditions get out of hand.
 Trend Growth: Economic
Growth in the 2010s

Agriculture investment will finally resume after many decades of relative sparseness,
but this sector could well grow much faster than the expected 3.4%
Manufacturing opportunities would improve on account of rapidly growing domestic
market as well as international markets – however energy and wage price inflation
will play a role.
Transport, storage and communications will be the driving force of growth in the
country in the 2010s – A large road network is going to be operational, ports are
rapidly improving, air transport infrastructure is being overhauled, and a strong
ecosystem has been created for the telecom sector
The trends of the 2000s will continue – but growth will be much faster
 Economic Structure: An even
more of a services economy

GDP at Factor Cost

INR Trillions ('99-00)

80.0
Community, Social &
Personal Services
70.0
6.5 Financing, Insurance, Real
Estate & Business Services
60.0 11.1 Transport, Storage &
Communication
50.0 Trade, Hotels & Restaurant Overall GDP growth
17.8 will be around 9.6%
40.0 Construction
annually, even if
4.5
30.0 5.4 11.2 Electricity, Gas & Water the government
Supply
5.1
Manufacturing
does not do
6.3
20.0
5.8 0.8 anything
2.6 Mining & Quarrying
0.7 9.5
10.0 5.4
0.6 0.9
5.8 6.3 Agriculture, Forestry &
0.0 Fishing
2009-10 2019-20

Source: District Domestic Product of India, 2009-10, Indicus Analytics

Services would be three fourths

Visit of
Site the Indian economy by 2020
 Household Consumption

Multiple implies growth factor between 2009-10 and 2019-20. Source: Expenditure Spectrum of India, 2009-10,
Indicus Analytics
The overall household budget would be about 2 times higher than now in real terms.
The share of food and related products would fall from 40% to 34% (though in absolute
amounts it would be about 1.8 times higher). Transport, education, health and
recreation would all be among the most rapidly growing items of consumer
expenditures.
Per capita income growth 8% pa – households will earn about double that
 What will Indians eat in 10
years?

Source: Expenditure Spectrum of India, 2009-10, Indicus Analytics

Lifestyle changes will show up in a major way in our eating habits. That is the
next tipping point – cooking at home will continue, and we will not do away
with kitchens as in Thailand

Processed foods & eating out will be a rapidly growing component of

household budgets
 How will they spend on
services?

Source: Expenditure Spectrum of India, 2009-10, Indicus Analytics

Recreation and communication that will drive household expenditures the

most. The Indian household will move more and more towards lifestyle
enhancing expenditures - and another tipping point will be reached in terms of
the expenditures on tertiary education and health
Health care expenditures will grow rapidly, and so will those for education
 Penetration of Durables

Estimates Using penetration trends from NSSO Data

Large numbers of both rural and u7rban households will benefit from access to
electricity as well as financing to purchase and operate electric appliances.
The only threat to this scenario? Electricity supply.

A surge in durable ownership by households is one of the most unambiguous

 Energy

Source: CSO, World Development Indicators and

1000000 Indicus estimates

India will not become an energy intensive economic power in the coming
decade. India’s GDP in 2019-20 would be about 4.5 times what it was in 2001,
however, total energy requirement would have barely doubled since then.
900000
Endemic lack of energy has created an economy that is not as energy
dependent as (say) China. India’s growth relies more on services that are
typically less energy intensive than manufacturing.
India will need more and more energy to service the demands of a growing
 Consumption of Agriculture
Commodities
Annual growth in consumption till 2020,
%

Forestry
6.7
The demand for wheat will
Other food
5.37 surpass that for rice on account
Fish
6.32 of increased incomes and
Milk
3.86 changing preferences, not to
Other agro products 6.29 mention higher population
Cattle and meat -0.61 growth in the northern part of
Plant-based fibre 4.32 the country. Consumption of
Sugar 5.04 meats will stagnate and may
Oilseed 4.08
even fall on account of higher
Coarse grains
2.28
relative prices. The
Wheat
2.17
consumption of cash crops will
Rice
1.03
continue to rise and the demand
for milk, and fish is likely to
Estimates drawing from joint work done by Bibek
Debroy and Laveesh Bhandari for FAO
grow rapidly.

Agriculture will steadily but slowly move towards being more of a cash crop
 Poverty

Estimates using the India Labout Report 2008

300 million people are expected to be living under extreme poverty as

defined by the Planning Commission. And this figure has been more or less
stagnant over the last 4 decades. If the current trends continue as many as
260 million persons would remain under extreme poverty even by the end
of the decade. Rapid reforms can however dramatically reduce these
numbers

Expect that social safety nets would remain critical for India
 Urbanization

Indicus estimates using Registrar General of India

data

About 32% of India’s 1176.7 million people reside in Indian cities currently.
This will increase to about 35.4% of the total population of 1326.2 million by
2019 – an addition of about 100 million. The bulk of this new urban
population will comprise of recent migrants

An additional 100 million will move into cities

 Income Distribution

120.0

Source: Market Skyline of India, 2009-10, Indicus

Analytics
Households earning less than
75,000 per annum will fall from 23
100 .0
Affluent households (> 1 million per year) will rise from 4
million currently to 12.5 million in urban areas; and from
million to less than 12 million in barely 1.5 million to 3.6 million in rural areas. But the
urban India and from 96.7 million greatest increase is going to be among the middle classes –
ns)

currently to less than 77 million in the great Indian middle class will finally become a reality in
rural areas. both rural and urban India.
India will progressively become less poor and the great Indian middle class
will finally become a reality
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