The Commonwealth Finance Ministers Meeting 2009

CFM_Mohan_2

Infrastructure for Development

anything to go by. Obviously, business as usual andcopycat emulation of rich cities is not going to help.

Old versus new cities

Most cities in the 21st century are growing under verydifferent conditions from those that matured before the20th century. Most large cities in high-income countries(HIC) grew to their present size between 1850 and1950. Technological developments were critical inchanging the shape and form of the city. Cities that havegrown after 1950 do not have the characteristics of strong central business districts (CBD) in any part of theworld. Car ownership started increasing in the 1920s butmost families did not own a car until the middle of the20th century. By then, the essential land use andtransportation patterns of large cities in HICs were wellset with large CBDs. This encouraged building of highcapacity grade separated metro systems and, in turn, thetransport system encouraged densification of CBDs aslarge numbers of people could be transported to thecentre of the city. The non-availability of the car to themiddle class decided the widespread use of publictransport and city form.Cities in most commonwealth countries have expandedafter 1960 and most have multiple business districts. In thepast two decades, motorcycle ownership has increasedsubstantially in many cities, and as a result a significantproportion of families own a car or a motorcycle at a verylow per capita income level of about US$1,400 per year.Such high levels of private vehicle ownership did nothappen until incomes were much higher in HIC cities.Therefore, the high ownership of motorcycles, non-availability of funds to build expensive grade separatedmetro systems and official plans encouraging multi nodalbusiness activity in a city has resulted in the absence of dense high population CBDs and city forms whichencourage “sprawl” in the form of relatively dense citieswithin cities.

Changes in technology and declining demand forpublic transportation

Most middle class families did not own air-conditionedcars with stereo systems in HICs before 1970. The carswere noisy and occupants were exposed to traffic fumesas windows had to be kept open. Under such conditions,the train was much more comfortable. On the other hand, brand new, quiet, stereo equipped, air-conditionedcars are being sold in countries like India at prices as lowas US$4,000-5,000, and used ones for quarter the price.This has made it possible for the middle class first-timecar owner to travel in cars with comfort levels Europeanshad not experienced till the late 20th century. Air-conditioned, comfortable, safe and quiet travel in carswith music in hot and tropical climates cannot bematched by public transport. Owners of such vehicleswould brave congestion rather than brave the climate onaccess trips and the jostling in public transport.Availability of motorcycles has further reduced themiddle class demand for public transport. In addition, ithas pegged the fare levels that can be charged by publictransport operators. It appears that public transport cannotattract these road users unless the fare is less than themarginal cost of using a motorcycle. At current prices, thisamounts to less than US$ 0.02 per km. The only optionavailable is to design very cost efficient public transportsystems that come close to matching this price.Cities in low and middle-income countries that havegrown after the 1950s seem to be different in character with multiple business districts, mixed land use (largelyby default, illegally), relatively short trip distances and alarge share of walking and public transport, even if thelatter is not provided by the city authorities. Whenpublic transport is not provided officially, informalsystems using mini-buses, three-wheelers and vansoperate semi-legally or illegally and provide a majorityof the motorised trips. No low or middle-income city iswithout such systems. It is also clear that no city in a lowor middle-income country has been able build a metrosystem that attracts a majority of public transportpassengers. This is partly because no city that has grownafter 1950 has a large and dense central business district.

New megacities and climate change

Current situation

Almost every country and major city government isinvolved in planning for the future in view of thepressure put on us by fears of climate change. What has tobe ensured is that urban transportation planners do notmove toward infrastructure development that will fixour future to high energy use and CO

emissions. Thischange will not be easy, as traditional mobility planningembedded in textbooks promotes capital intensiveprojects that are also attractive as a symbol of progressand profitable for large consultancy/contracting/manufacturing corporations worldwide. Pressure for changing policies will be successful only if the majorityof city residents can be convinced that their current andfuture mobility/accessibility needs can be met at lower risk levels, at lower costs and wider availability of choices.

Way forward

Issues outlined will have a greater degree of successfulimplementation in the future if the following factors areaddressed in theory and design: traffic safety; design for informal activity on roads; reduction of crime bydesign; and equal spread of low income people in allparts of the city.

When public transport is not providedofficially, informal systems using mini-buses,three-wheelers and vans operate semi-legallyor illegally and provide a majority of themotorised trips. No low or middle-incomecity is without such systems.