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Binomial Distribution Exercises

Binomial Distribution Exercises

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Published by Alp Eren AKYUZ

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Published by: Alp Eren AKYUZ on Jan 15, 2010
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Binomial Distribution Exercisesand Solutions
For any questions: Alp Eren AKYÜZ alperen.akyuz@boun.edu.trNOTE: The purpose of these exercises is to make you familiar with the BinomialDistribution questions. When reading the question part,try to spot the clues that willreveal you the type of the question.
Question -1:
Malaria is an important problem in many African countries. You havereceived a report on a small townnamed as ‘Pala’, which states the population as 10,000. Themedical staff estimated that,in the region, 4% of the population suffers from the disease. Ifthe probability of survivingmalaria is 95%, what is the probability of exactly 5peopledyingin Pala?
Answer to Q1:
First determine the type of the question.Determine the type of the random variable
Number of people is found by
 , therefore it is a discrete variable.
We are also asked the probability X being
equal to
a number. This also points to adiscrete probability distribution question.Check for the parameters given, we have:
Population: 10,000
Probability of survival:0.95
Ratio of peoplewith malaria: 0.04(Relevant?Yes; but indirectly)This is clearly a binomial distribution question. Now follow the steps below to arrive at thesolution:i.Define success:This is revealed at the last sentence: “...the probability of 5peopledying...”. So, surviving is the succesful outcome.ii.Determine the probability of success in a single observation:probability of survivingis 0.95, then probability of death(success) is 0.05iii.Determine the relevant population(the number of trials)
if it is not already given
inthe question:Now, here is the tricky part: The probability of success only applies to theinfected population. Staff estimates that 4% of the population has the disease so thenumber of infected should be 400 and the number of healthy should be 9,600.
So now we know that 9,600 people are already healthy and are going tosurvive the diseaseanyway, all that remains is to calculate the probability of5peopledying out of 400.Now,just apply the formula:
5 395
4001 1 0.05 0.955
n  X 
n P X p p X 
 
Use your scientific calculator to arrive at the solution:Youneed to type in
Question -2:
Dr. Haus,diagnoses his patients correctly with a probability of 98%, andthe probability of a well diagnosed patient being cured is92%. If 100 patients apply in agiven month to the hospital what are the chances of 95being correctly diagnosed and 92 being cured?
Answer to Q2:
First determine the type of question. Once again, we have discrete random variablesand are asked the probabilityof an equality.Check for the parameters given:
Population: 100 patients
Probability of being correctly diagnosed:0.98
Probability of being cured, after being correctly diagnosed: 0.92So it must be a binomial distribution question.Notice the irregularity in the question: there are two probabilities of success: 0.98 and0.92, for two different events (diagnose and treatment). There are two consecutive events andwe are asked the final result’s probability. Think of the question asa two-step process: “Whatis the probability of 95people out of 100 being diagnosed correctly by Dr. Haus and out ofthis 95,92being cured.”. We construct the formula as the following:
95 5 92 3
100 9592 0.98 0.02 0.92 0.0895 92
Use your scientific calculator to arrive at the solution:

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