Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Save to My Library
Look up keyword
Like this
2Activity
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
The Promise of Prediction Markets by Cass R. Sunsteint

The Promise of Prediction Markets by Cass R. Sunsteint

Ratings: (0)|Views: 168 |Likes:
Published by Josef Wäges

More info:

Categories:Types, Research, History
Published by: Josef Wäges on Jan 16, 2010
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

01/15/2010

pdf

text

original

 
 
R
E G
-
 
M
A R K E T S
C
E N T E R
 
AEI Center for Regulatory and Market Studies
The Promise of Prediction Markets
*
 Kenneth J. Arrow, Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham,Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore,Robert Litan, Paul Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson,George R. Neumann, Marco Ottaviani, Thomas C. Schelling,Robert J. Shiller, Vernon L. Smith, Erik Snowberg,Cass R. Sunstein, Paul C. Tetlock, Philip E. Tetlock,Hal R. Varian, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz
Related Publication 08-04May 2008
This is the authors’ version of the work. It is posted here by permission of the AAAS forpersonal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in SCIENCE,320, May 16 2008, DOI: 10.1126/science.1157679http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/320/5878/877.
*
The views expressed here represent those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the institutionswith which they are affiliated. Support for this work was provided by the Reg-Markets Center at AEI (www.reg-markets.org).
 
 
R
E G
-
 
M
A R K E T S
C
E N T E R
 
AEI Center for Regulatory and Market Studies
The Reg-Markets Center focuses on understanding and improving regulation,market performance, and government policy. The Center provides analyses of keyissues aimed at improving decisions in the public, private and not-for-profitsectors. It builds on the success of the AEI-Brookings Joint Center. The viewsexpressed in this publication are those of the authors.ROBERT HAHN
 Executive Director 
 
COUNCIL OF ACADEMIC ADVISERSROBERT E. LITAN,
Co-Chairman
 Brookings Institution
CASS R. SUNSTEIN,
Co-Chairman
 
University of Chicago
 KENNETH J. ARROW
Stanford University
ROBERT CRANDALL
 Brookings Institution
MAUREEN CROPPER
University of Maryland 
JOHN D. GRAHAM
Pardee RANDGraduate School
 PAUL L. JOSKOW
 Massachusetts Instituteof Technology
 DONALD KENNEDY
Stanford University
 MARK MCCLELLAN
 Brookings Institution
 ROGER G. NOLL
Stanford University
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE
 Massachusetts Instituteof Technology
 ROBERT N. STAVINS
 Harvard University
W. KIP VISCUSI
Vanderbilt University
CLIFFORD WINSTON
 Brookings Institution
Publications can be found at: www.reg-markets.org© 2008 by the authors. All rights reserved.
 
 
Executive Summary
Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on theoutcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using thesemarkets as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the privateand public sectors.We argue that U.S. regulators should lower barriers to the creation and design of prediction markets by creating a safe harbor for certain types of small stakes markets. Webelieve our proposed change has the potential to stimulate innovation in the design anduse of prediction markets throughout the economy, and in the process to provideinformation that will benefit the private sector and government alike.

Activity (2)

You've already reviewed this. Edit your review.
1 thousand reads
1 hundred reads

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->