ANNUAL FORECAST 2010
Jan. 4, 2009
This analysis may not be forwarded or republished without express permission from STRATFOR.For permission, please submit a request toPR@stratfor.com.
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ANNUAL FORECAST2010
The dominant theme of 2009 was theglobal recession. A series of financialdevelopments in the United Statesdamaged the U.S. banking system andspread from there to the rest of the globaleconomy. Everyone — whether purchasersof high-tech goods or sellers of rawcommodities — was deeply affected. As theyear turns anew, that recession has ended. The recovery in place is unsteady, but appears to have putdown sufficient roots to hold.Two major evolutions will dominate 2010. The first is a continuation of a trend STRATFOR has beenfollowing for years: Russia’s resurgence as a major power. In the 1990s the United States becamevery comfortable with the idea of Russian weakness, and in the 2000s the wars in Afghanistan andIraq have utterly consumed U.S. military capacity. With the recent decision to send even more forcesinto Afghanistan, the U.S. preoccupation with the Islamic world will become all-consuming, allowingRussia to do as it pleases in its near abroad.For Russia, 2010 will be a year of consolidation — the culmination of years of careful efforts. In thecoming year, Russia will excise the bulk of what Western and Turkish influence remains from Ukraine,Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Azerbaijan, and try to lay the groundwork for the reformulation of apolitical union in much of the former Soviet space. That project will not be completed in 2010, but byyear’s end it will be obvious that the former Soviet Union is Russia’s sphere of influence and that anyeffort to change that must be monumental if it is to succeed.Contributing to the Russian consolidation is a sharpening crisis in the Middle East.Israel believes that Iran’s nuclear program has matured sufficiently to constitute a material threat tothe survival of the Jewish state. International diplomatic efforts to contain that program are not simplyintended to forestall a future nuclear threat from Iran, but also to prevent an Israeli strike on Iran — astrike that could quickly spiral into a general melee in the world’s premier energy artery, the PersianGulf.The mix of players and motives — Israel insisting on real controls and willing to act unilaterally, Iranevading real controls and retaining its ability to act decisively in Iraq and Afghanistan, Russia seekingto keep the conflict brewing in order to distract all from its efforts in the former Soviet Union, and theUnited States simply wanting everyone to calm down so it can focus on its wars — all but guaranteesthat a crisis will erupt in 2010. The only questions are whether that crisis will be limited to “simply” thePersian Gulf, and whether it will be military in nature.Elsewhere in the world, there will be many developments that will not rise to the omnipresence theseissues will have in 2010, but are nonetheless critical on the regional level.
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The global recession is over and a building, albeit tentative, recovery is putting down roots inmany places. Its permanence or robustness is hardly a foregone conclusion, but the carnage of early 2009 is certainly a thing of the past. What has taken the place of the global economiccrisis are a series of aftereffects that are regional in character: China’s struggles with itsexport-led economy when export demand is tepid, and Europe’s growing banking crisis.
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The increase of U.S. forces into Afghanistan is an attempt to change the rules of the war. Thereal heat from the conflict in 2010 will not be in Afghanistan, but in Pakistan, where the conflictis expanding beyond the border region.
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In Europe, the Lisbon Treaty — now fully entered into force — finally will allow Germany andFrance to assert meaningful leadership of the European Union.
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The effects of Mexico’s drug war are spreading rapidly, as the cartels focus their efforts alongthe drug supply chain into both Central America and the United States. For Central America,the violence and corruption that now permeates Mexico will become ever more familiar.
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With internal transitions complete and civil wars resolved, Angola and South Africa have bothmatured as independent powers. Now begins their cold war.
Middle East
Iran’s nuclear program has progressedwithout being slowed by internationalefforts. This is unacceptable to Israel, andso the Jewish state is both becoming moreconcerned about its national survival andplaying up the threat to force moredecisive action. The Israelis have said thatunless the Americans can halt Iran’snuclear activities (whether through the useof “crippling sanctions” or military action),they will have no choice but to launch amilitary strike of their own to neutralizethe program.Despite its desire to avoid war, the United Statesunderstands that should such an attack occur, it would haveto participate for two reasons. First, while Israel couldundoubtedly throw the Iranian program back a few years,Israel lacks the reach to destroy it. Iran, cognizant of thethreat it faces, has not only done extensive work to concealthe physical elements that make up its nuclear program, it has also distributed its various parts acrossthe country. Israel will need U.S. military assistance in terms of bunker-buster ordnance tosuccessfully penetrate facilities that are deep underground and spread across great distances. Second,Iran would undoubtedly retaliate in a number of theaters, and one of those theaters would be in theStrait of Hormuz,the world’s most densely trafficked energy transport route — thus threatening tothrow off the global economic recovery through rising oil prices.U.S. participation would increase the likelihood of success in a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities,and only the United States has the resources to both strike at the facilities and engage Iran’sretaliatory capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz. But none of this means that the Americans want a warin 2010. Washington wants nothing more than to focus its efforts on the expanding war in Afghanistanand withdrawing from Iraq. It desperately wants to put Iran off for another day. But the Israelis are
forcing the issue, and the Russians are amplifying the Iranian threat — as part of a plan to keep theAmericans occupied in the Middle East — by encouraging Tehran to remain defiant.STRATFOR does not have sufficient evidence to forecast that war lingers at the end of this road, butthat is certainly a distinct possibility which may slide toward probability as the year wears on, andcertainly as Iran comes closer to being able to build a nuclear bomb. The year 2010 will be aboutIsrael attempting to force a conflict, the Americans attempting to avoid it, the Iranians preparing for itand the Russians manipulating all sides to make sure that a resolution to the standoff does not come
too soon.Elsewhere, Turkey continues to gain prominence, working toward a status more representative of acountry of its geographic, demographic and economic heft. But Turkey’s emergence is still a very newphenomenon, and Ankara wishes to avoid any decisive conflicts until it is more confident of its
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2010 FORECAST
Forecast of the important Geopolitical Events of the year 2010.
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