The Journal of Energy and Development,autumn 2004, volume 30, number 1

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Robert S. Pindyck, “Volatility in Natural Gas and Oil Markets.” The author uses daily futures price data to examine the behavior of natural gas an... (More) Robert S. Pindyck, “Volatility in Natural Gas and Oil Markets.” The author uses daily futures price data to examine the behavior of natural gas and crude-oil price volatility in the United States since 1990.

Guy F. Caruso and Linda E. Doman, “International Energy Outlook 2004 and Projections to 2025.” This paper presents the outlook for worldwide energy markets through 2025 based on the Energy Information Administration’s, International Energy Outlook 2004.

Gawdat G. Bahgat, “Energy Security in a New World Order.” In response to rising political instability in the Middle East since the early 2000s, major industrialized countries have sought to reduce their oil dependence on supplies from the region and develop deposits in other areas, particularly Russia and the Caspian Sea. This study argues that production from these two regions is restrained by geological, economic, and political hurdles.

Øystein Noreng, “Oil, the Euro, and the Dollar.” The main argument is that the choice of currency for oil trading matters in an imperfect market, at least in the short run. Dr. Noreng discusses the implications of pricing oil in euros versus the U.S. dollar.

Sharif Ghalib, “OPEC Versus Non-OPEC." The paper addresses the financial prospects of 17 major oil exporters in the context of possible global oil market weakness during the medium-term horizon. That weakness could put downward pressure on oil prices, potentially straining the relations between members of OPEC and their principal competitors among the non-OPEC oil producers led by Russia. The paper concludes that a prolonged price war between the two groups of countries is highly unlikely during the medium-term future because very few oil exporters have accumulated sufficiently large reserve cushions of external financial assets necessary to withstand a price war without severely harming domestic economic and social development plans.

M. Nagy Eltony, “A Model for Forecasting and Planning: The Case for Energy Demand in Kuwait.” This paper contains a discussion of the Kuwait energy demand model and its simulation under various scenarios. It also discusses the simulation results and their policy implications. The model was estimated for the 1980-2000 time period and the simulation for 2000-2010 time period.

Kurt S. Abraham, “Global Upstream Forecast and U.S. Coalbed Methane Outlook.”
This article describes the spending levels and drilling trends for the global oil and gas exploration and production market. The second half of this article describes the evolution and progress of the U.S. coalbed methane industry.

Alberto Cisneros Lavaller, “OPEC: Behavior Cycles, Compliance, and Policy Change.” This analysis reviews the recent history of export volumes, prices, and revenues of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). An overview of cyclical trends in the organization’s behavior indicates that changes on the current price defense strategy could materialize anytime in the near future.
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