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IMF Review

IMF Review

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Published by: maidanwala on Jan 26, 2010
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09/07/2010

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© 2010 International Monetary Fund
January 2010IMF Country Report No. 10/6January 8, 2009 January 28, 2009 xxxJanuary 29, 2001xxxJanuary 29, 2001 January 28, 2009
Pakistan: Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement
The following documents have been released and are included in this package:
 
The staff report, prepared by a staff team of the IMF, following discussions that ended on November 12, 2009, with the officials of Pakistan on economic developments and policies.Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report wascompleted on December 14, 2009. The views expressed in the staff report are those of thestaff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Board of the IMF.
 
A staff statement.
 
A Press Release.
 
A statement by the Executive Director for Pakistan.The document(s) listed below will be separately released.Letter of Intent sent to the IMF by the authorities of Pakistan*Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies by the authorities of Pakistan*Technical Memorandum of Understanding*
*Also included in Staff Report
 The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents allows for the deletion of market-sensitiveinformation.
Copies of this report are available to the public fromInternational Monetary Fund
Publication Services700 19
th
Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20431Telephone: (202) 623-7430
Telefax: (202) 623-7201E-mail: publications@imf.org Internet: http://www.imf.org
International Monetary FundWashington, D.C.
 
 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDPAKISTAN
Third Review under the Stand-By Arrangement
Prepared by the Middle East and Central Asia Department(In consultation with other departments)Approved by Juan Carlos Di Tata and Michele ShannonDecember 14, 2009
 
 Discussions were held during November 2–12, 2009 in Dubai 
.
 
Staff met with Finance Minister Tarin, State Bank of Pakistan Governor Raza, Finance Secretary Siddique, and other senior officials. The IMF team consisted of Messrs. Mazarei (Head), Wieczorek, Kock, and Piazza (allMCD), Mr. Jonas (FAD), Mr. Sun (SPR), and Mr. Ross (resident representative in Pakistan).Ms. Kahkonen (World Bank) and Mr. Parvez (Asian Development Bank) participated in thediscussions on structural issues. Mr. Ahmad (OED) also participated in the discussions.
 
The SBA in the amount of SDR 5.169 billion (about $7.6 billion, or 500 percent of quota) wasapproved by the Executive Board on November 24, 2008
. The SBA was augmented toSDR 7,235.9 million ($11,327 million, or 700 percent of quota) and extended through the end of 2010 on August 7, 2009. The latest, third disbursement of SDR 766.7 million ($1,200 million)was made on August 7, 2009, after completion of the second program review. Of this amount,SDR 475.6 million ($745 million) was made available for budget financing. Disbursementsunder the program thus far amount to SDR 3,402.6 million ($5,327 million).
 
 In the attached Letter of Intent, the authorities request completion of the third review under the SBA
.
 
Completion of the review will enable the fourth disbursement under the program inthe amount of SDR 766.7 million. Of this amount, SDR 237.75 million (about $380 million)will be made available for budget financing.
 
 Program implementation has been uneven but key reforms are moving forward 
. All end-September quantitative performance criteria were met, with the exception of the ceiling on theoverall budget deficit, which was missed by a margin of 0.3 percent of GDP due to a shortfallin external grants and nontax receipts from reimbursement of military outlays, lower taxrevenue as the deadline for the advanced income tax payment was moved from September 15to October 15, and a spending overrun owing to higher military outlays and the advanced payment of October wages ahead of Ramadan. The tax revenue foregone in September waslargely recovered in October, and the wage bill overrun was self-correcting. On these grounds,the authorities request a waiver of nonobservance for the related end-September 2009 performance criterion. All structural benchmarks relevant for the completion of the thirdreview were met, albeit most of them with delays. Staff recommends the completion of the program review.
 
D. Financial Sector Issues .................................................................................................... 16 V. Program Financing and Capacity to Repay the Fund ............................................................. 16 VI. Staff Appraisal ....................................................................................................................... 17 Box 1. Proposed Structural Benchmarks for the Second Half of 2009/10 .................................. 14Figures1. Selected Economic Indicators .............................................................................................. 192. Financial Market Indicators ................................................................................................. 203. Real and External Sectors, 2005/06–2009/10 ...................................................................... 214. Fiscal Policy Indicators, 2007/08–2009/10.......................................................................... 22Tables1. Selected Economic Indicators, 2007/08–2009/10................................................................ 232. Balance of Payments, 2007/08–2009/10.............................................................................. 243a. Consolidated Government Budget, 2008/09–2009/10 (in billions of Pakistani rupees) ..... 253b. Consolidated Government Budget, 2008/09–2009/10 (in percent of GDP) ........................ 264. Monetary Survey and Analytical Balance Sheet of the State Bank of Pakistan,2007/08–2009/10 ............................................................................................................. 275. Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework, 2007/08–2014/15 ......................................... 286. Medium-Term Balance of Payments, 2007/08–2014/15 ..................................................... 297. Medium-Term Fiscal Framework, 2007/08–2014/15 .......................................................... 308. External Debt, 2007/08–2015/16 ......................................................................................... 319. Gross Balance of Payments Financing Requirements and Sources 2007/08–2009/10........ 32

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