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OIL & GAS UPSTREAM

EXPLORATION
&
Engineering, Procurement & Construction
(International Business)

-Nitin kumar Banka


Contents
q Oil
Ø Facts and figures
Ø Prices
Ø Peak oil
Ø Alternatives
Ø Natural Gas
Ø International E&P business

q Exploration
Ø Detection & Rigs
Ø L&T in exploration
Ø Key drivers
Ø Risks involved
Ø Business Trends

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Contents

q Engineering Procurement & Construction


Ø Platforms
Ø Pipe Laying
Ø L&T in EPC
Ø Construction Risks
Ø EPC risks in the International scenario

q Competitor Analysis

q Opportunities

q Conclusion

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OIL

Oil has become primarily a fuel for transportation while coal and natural gas
are preferred for power generation and industrial uses.

On average, developed countries use more than 60% of their oil for
transportation purposes.

In contrast, many developing countries use less than 40% of their oil for
transportation while they use considerable amounts for power generation.

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WORLD STATISTICS
Total reserves – 1166 billion barrels

Total production - 83.1mb/d

Total consumption - 86.9mb/d

Total imports - 64.2mb/d

Per capita consumption – 4.9 b/yr

O&G industry – Approx. 10 trillion USD (15% of world’s GDP)

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Crude Oil Classifications
Weight

v Light crude has low density making it easier to transport and refine. Light crude is more
expensive.

v Heavy crude has high density, making it more difficult to transport and refine. Heavy
crude is cheaper to buy and usually cheaper to extract.

Sulphur Content

v Sweet crude has a sulphur content less than 0.5% by weight, making it much easier to
refine - making it more expensive.

v Sour crude has a sulphur content above 0.5% by weight, making it cheaper to purchase but
more expensive to refine.

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Crude Oil Benchmark Blends
Crude oil is priced in terms of regional blends, each with different characteristics.
Of these, certain blends are followed by traders, as they most reflect the overall
value of oil, and therefore affect the way different blends are priced.

v Brent Blend: Based on the prices of Brent crude, which is a light, sweet
crude, from 15 different oil fields in the North Sea.

v West Texas Intermediate (WTI): The benchmark for oil prices in the US
based on light, low sulphur WTI crude.

v Dubai: Dubai crude, from Dubai, is a benchmark for Persian Gulf crudes,
and is light yet sour.

v OPEC Basket: The OPEC crude basket is OPEC's benchmark, and is made
up of 13 different regional oils

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Largest producers of O&G in the world in ‘07

1. Saudi Arabia
2. Russia
3. US
4. Iran
5. China
6. Mexico
7. Canada
8. UAE
9. Venezuela
10. Kuwait
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Largest consumers of O&G in ‘07

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Largest Oil and Gas companies of the world
ranked according to the equivalent reserves
Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Arabia)
National Iranian Oil Company (Iran)
Qatar General Petroleum Corporation (Qatar)
Iraq National Oil Company (Iraq)
Petroleos de Venezuela.S.A. (Venezuela)
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (UAE)
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (Kuwait)
Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (Nigeria)
National Oil Company (Libya)
Sonatrach (Algeria)
Gazprom (Russia)
OAO Rosneft (Russia)
PetroChina Co. Ltd. (China)
Petronas (Malaysia)
OAO Lukoil (Russia) 1010
Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC)

Cartel of 13 countries

Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Indonesia, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.

One of the principal goals is the determination of the best means for safeguarding
the Organization's interests, individually and collectively.

They collectively provide 35.6% of the world's oil .

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Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD)

OECD brings together the governments of countries committed to democracy and the market
economy from around the world to:

• Support sustainable economic growth


• Boost employment
• Raise living standards
• Maintain financial stability
• Assist other countries' economic development
• Contribute to growth in world trade

An international organization of 30 countries that accept the principles of representative


democracy and free-market economy.

Most of its members are developed nations.

Together they account for approximately 30% of oil demands.

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Oil prices
Current prices are in the range of $ 40-50 per barrel depending upon the type of crude.

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Factors affecting price of Oil

Worldwide economy
Dollar’s strength
Stock levels/ Spare production
Mid distillate production
Future prices
OPEC
Disruptions due to geopolitical unrests
Other factors such as sudden change of weather, adoption of new
technology, change in government policy, terrorist attacks etc.

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Can OPEC control oil prices completely?

It is tempting to think that all the oil producers are motivated simply by a high
oil price.

A higher oil price will only reduce demand around the world further. So a
higher oil price, while theoretically desirable for OPEC nations, could reduce
demand and reduce overall revenues.

Thus, OPEC can be regarded as split between countries such as Saudi Arabia,
who can tolerate a lower price in order to sell more oil to the world, and
countries such as Venezuela where oil production is less efficient and a higher
price is needed in order for the industry to remain profitable.

This split should act as a check on dramatic swings in output in either


direction. For this reason, OPEC's power to influence the oil price is tempered.
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Risks due to sustained high O&G prices

The threat of regional/global recession

Demand destruction and/or substitution

Increased political attention and pressures (e.g., ‘windfall’ profits and taxes).

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Oil price in the near future

The fundamentals for oil have not changed. Stocks are reducing and the growth
of developing countries such as China will continue, if at a slower pace.

However, a global economic slump will hit demand hard in the short term. It is
reasonable to assume that the need for oil might only increase significantly
when the credit markets thaw and economies begin to grow again.

The strengthening of the dollar against other currencies will continue –


resulting in downward pressure on oil. Accordingly, most economists have
predicted average prices for 2009 in a range between $85 and $60.

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Peak Oil

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum
extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal
decline..

A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10 to 15 percent is


enough to wholly shatter an oil-dependent economy. For example the 1970s
oil shock led to quadrupling of oil prices even when the shortage was just
5%.

Once the decline gets under way, production will drop (conservatively) by
3% per year. Terrorism, extreme weather and other geopolitical factors will
likely push the effective decline rate past 10% per year, thus cutting the total
supply by 50% in 7 years.

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Peak Oil

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2020
ALTERNATIVE- OIL SAND

The “oil sands” in Canada hold between 1.7 and 2.5 trillion barrels of
non-conventional oil ( Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, has
about 260 billion barrels of proven oil reserves).

Oil sands contain a mixture of bitumen (a carbon-rich sludge) with sand,


water and clay. The bitumen has to be processed and "upgraded" (by
adding hydrogen) to produce what is known as "syncrude." This syncrude
can be an alternative to crude oil in near future.

This is an energy intensive and expensive process, but it is widely


recognized to be cost-effective at $30 per barrel.

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ALTERNATIVE- OIL SHALE

There are an estimated 2.6 trillion barrels of recoverable oil in oil shale
around the world, of which over 1 trillion are in the U.S.

Essentially, oil shale is sedimentary rock which contains enough organic


material to yield oil and gas upon distillation. The basic technology
involves strip-mining the oil shale rock, crushing it, heating it, whereupon
the gas, oil vapor, and char separate (a process called "retorting"), and then
condensing the oil.

Few efforts to process oil shale have been economic at a commercial level,
though Estonia, Brazil, China, and Russia currently use oil shale in one
form or another

Estimates range from an effective oil price of $60-$75 per barrel, to Shell's
estimates that it can make oil shale profitable in Colorado at $30 per barrel.

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ALTERNATIVE- BIO-FUEL

In the transportation sector, biofuels offer an alternative to oil products


but except for few cases such as ethanol produced from sugar cane in
Brazil, large scale successes have been rare.

To the extent these plants do not compete with food supplies, do not
threaten deforestation or water depletion, and do not cause environmental
damage due to fertilizer use, they will be successful.

Corn-ethanol in the U.S. failed these tests and the support for it is
declining. In contrast, Former Soviet Union countries, where combined
cultivated area was reduced by more than 50 million acres in the last two
decades, may offer better prospects for development of biofuels if land
and water conditions permit..

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Natural Gas

There are more natural gas reserves than oil reserves, relative to annual
production (65 years of natural gas versus 41 years for oil).

It is used for a wide variety of uses, including electricity generation,


residential/industrial heating, and transportation.

It's reserves are widely distributed around the world, with Russia, US,
Canada and Iran providing 45% of the global gas production.

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Natural Gas Prices

The key components of the end-user price of natural gas are two-fold:
(1) The raw fuel costs account for about 60% of final costs, while
(2) the transmission and distribution costs account for the remaining 40%.

Natural gas prices are typically seasonal, peaking in the winter months
and hitting lows in the summer months, when heating needs are least.

Both drilling programs for new gas discoveries and storage of existing
reserves of natural gas heavily influence natural gas prices.

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International E&P business
A typical international E&P contract allows for the government to receive 85% of the production while the oil
company will only receive a 15% share plus reimbursement of their exploration and production costs.

E&P involves
Ø Surveying
Ø Test Drilling
Ø Establishing production platform
Ø Production

Increasingly, E&P activities are shifting from Independent Oil Companies to National Oil Companies. ( Reduction of
10% in last 2 years).

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International E&P business
In 2006, average onshore production costs ranged from about $3 per barrel
(excluding taxes) in Mid east to about $28.30 per barrel in Canada. The
average for the U.S. was $26.83/barrel. U.S. offshore costs were extremely
high at nearly $60 per barrel. This may imply that the marginal cost of
developing such fields would require a minimum oil price of at least $80 and
perhaps a good deal more to provide an adequate profit.

Averaged over 2004, 2005 and 2006, finding costs ranged from about
$5.26/barrel in the Middle East to $33.71/barrel for U.S. offshore.

For OPEC, the cost of production is in the range of $15-35 per barrel.

Most E&P companies can make a profit with oil at $75-90.


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International E&P business
Parameters used to gauge the condition of the Oil & Gas industry:
v Rig count
v Well completion
v Work-over rigs

There are currently 705 rigs in the world with 88% fleet utilization rate.

26 percent of US E&P companies have either significantly delayed or terminated oil or gas
exploration projects in the past 2 months.

Global companies like Exxon Mobil and Shell have put their explorations on hold, given the
volatility in the oil market.

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EXPLORATION

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Detection

Visible surface features such as oil seeps, natural gas seeps, pockmarks
(underwater craters caused by escaping gas) provide basic evidence of
hydrocarbon generation

Areas thought to contain hydrocarbons are initially subjected to a gravity


survey, magnetic survey and regional seismic reflection surveys to detect
large scale features of the sub-surface geology.

Finally, when a prospect has been identified, an exploration well is drilled in


an attempt to conclusively determine the presence or absence of oil or gas.

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Reserves
Proven- reasonable certainty (1P/P90)

Probable- reasonable probability(2P/P50)

Possible- chance under favorable circumstances(3P/P10)

The total reserves that is calculated is based on the weightages that is given to each of these
reserves.

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World oil reserves

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Saudi Arabia
1.
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2. Iran ● Third level

3. Iraq ● Fourth level

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4. Kuwait
5. U.A.E
6. Venezuela
7. Russia
8. Kazakhstan
9. Libya
10. Nigeria

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Exploration

O&G drilling rigs can be used not only to identify geologic reservoirs but
also to create holes that allow the extraction of oil or natural gas from those
reservoirs so that the reserve can be checked in terms of viability.

An exploratory drilling rig will typically drill four temporary exploratory


wells over a suspected deposit, each taking 60 to 90 days to complete.

Primarily in on shore oil and gas fields once a well has been drilled, the
drilling rig will be moved off of the well and a service rig that is purpose
built for completions will be moved on to the well to get the well on line.

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DRY HOLE

A well bore that has not encountered hydrocarbons in economically


producible quantities.

Whether the well is a "duster" depends on many factors and hence a


complete study of the economic viability of the well needs to be done.

The deepest well (12000 ft) ever drilled in New Jersey in search of oil
proved to be a "dry hole.“ Losses- $6 million.

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Rigs for offshore exploration
JACK-UP RIG
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used above the sea using legs Second level
which can be lowered like jacks. ● Third level

These platforms are typically used ● Fourth level

in water depths up to 500 feet . ● Fifth level

They are designed to move from


place to place, and then anchor
themselves by deploying the legs.

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Rigs for offshore exploration
SEMI-SUBMERSIBLE
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This floating drilling unit has columns Second level
that, when flooded with seawater, ● Third level
cause the structure to submerge to a
predetermined depth. ● Fourth level

This, combined with eight huge ● Fifth level

mooring anchors, make it a very


stable installation
With advancing technology some
semi submersibles can drill in water
depths over 5000 feet.

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Rigs for offshore exploration
DRILL-SHIP
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that has been fitted with drilling
apparatus. It is most often used for Second level
exploratory drilling of new oil or ● Third level

gas wells in deep water but can ● Fourth level


also be used for scientific drilling.
● Fifth level

It is often built on a modified


tanker hull and outfitted with a
dynamic positioning system to
maintain its position over the well.
Drill-ships are able to drill in
water depths of over 2000 meters.

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Exploration- L&T

L&T has the capability to undertake production of jack-up rigs and semi
submersibles on turnkey basis and fabrication and integration of topsides
for FPSO at its all weather delivery modular fabrication facility in Oman.

Work centres at Mumbai and Sharjah undertake complete project


management, procurement and coordination including transportation,
installation and commissioning.

L&T has set up an engineering and project management centre in Abu


Dhabi, to undertake oil and gas related projects as well as engineering and
consultancy services.

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Exploration- L&T
Larsen & Toubro is trying to enter into a joint venture with French offshore energy
services firm Technip The $8-billion Technip, which has a presence in 115 countries, is
in the business of constructing oil production and refining facilities. The company also
maintains a fleet of more than a dozen vessels to service offshore projects.

L&T-Valdel Engineering Private Limited, is the single point engineering consultant to


carry out FEED verification & detail engineering for 8,500 MT topsides for a
prestigious FPSO project to be moored in Brazilian waters. The FPSO is designed for
operation in water depth of 1,800 metres.

Making a proposal for a rig project for Aker-Kverner.

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Key drivers of oil exploration

Price of oil and current worldwide proven reserves -Taken together,


these determine whether a specific exploration project will be
economically attractive. In particular, the higher the price of oil, the more
expensive it can be to draw oil out of the ground and still one can make a
profit.

Technology - Advances in seismic and other exploration technologies


have pushed the envelope of what is feasible, both in terms of finding
where oil is and figuring out how to extract it. A variety of engineering
and seismic services firms offer the 3D seismic mapping Which has an
accuracy of 60%.

Availability of oil field services –Lack of availability of drill rigs (for


drilling oil), skilled petroleum services professionals, seismic trucks, etc.,
can be a constraint in oil exploration.

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Exploration risks
Credit crunch – Exploration being a highly capital intensive business, needs large
amount of capital investments. The world recession has lead to credit crunch and this
in turn is affecting the E&P business.

Exploration convertibility - Historically, only 10-15 % of wells find enough


petroleum to pay for the drilling. Only 3-5% yield enough petroleum to economically
justify drilling of an adjacent well and only 0.15% (1 out of 700) will discover
enough petroleum to warrant developing a field.

Long lead times - A development project involves an array of complex and lengthy
activities, including appraising a discovery in order to evaluate its commerciality,
sanctioning a development project and building and commissioning relating facilities.

Increase in production costs- Rates of return of such long-lead-time projects are


exposed to the volatility of oil and gas prices and the risk of an increase in developing
and lifting costs and increase in day rates by the services company, thus resulting in
lower rates of return.

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Business Trends

Oilfield services see dayrates (and, thus, margins) plunge, as


upstream oil companies decrease production, causing demand
for drilling rigs and other oilfield services to reduce.

About a quarter of oil reserves are in deep waters and there


are far fewer deepwater rigs in the world than normal rigs,
and with conventional wells drying up, oil companies are
willing to pay more to get at the difficult-to-reach reserves,
sometimes irrespective of the current economic scenario.

Though, E&P companies would now focus more on high


return projects rather than expensive ventures with riskier
returns.

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Business Trends

Day rates for floating drilling rigs, including rigs rated for both mid and deep water, continue
to rise, and this month are at record levels, according to ODS-Petrodata's Offshore Rig Day
Rate Index.

The current recession though is reducing the business, analysts believe that in the long term
E&P is going to have a good run.

With more than 80% of the current world oil rigs past their peaks, work-over and
maintenance can be a good area of business.

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Engineering
Procurement

Construction

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Platform

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An oil platform is a large structure used to Second level
house workers and machinery needed to drill
wells on land or in the ocean bed, extract oil ● Third level
and/or natural gas, separate the obtained fluids, ● Fourth level
and ship them to shore.
● Fifth level

An average well lasts a good 15 to 20 years


before it's no longer profitable.

The platforms are typically fixed directly to


the ocean floor using either metal and concrete
foundations or tethering cables.

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Process Overview
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Types of platforms
Types of platforms
Fixed tower - Rigid tower of concrete and steel in depths of 50-500 meters.
The stability is provided by the mounted platform.

Gravity Base - Enormous concrete fixed structures, typically with oil storage
cells in the “skirt” that rests on the sea bottom operating at a depth of 100 to
500 meters

Shallow water complex - characterized by a several independent platforms


with different parts of the process and utilities linked with gangway bridges.
Typically found in water depths up to 100 meters.

Compliant towers - They consist of a narrow tower, attached to a foundation


on the seafloor and extending up to the platform. This tower is flexible, and
allows it to operate in much deeper water, as it can 'absorb' much of the
pressure exerted on it by the wind and sea. Compliant towers are used between
500 and 1000 meters water depth.

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Types of platforms
Tension Leg Platform (TLP) - It consists of a structure held in place by
vertical tendons connected to the sea floor by pile-secured templates in water
depths up to 2000m.

SPAR - The SPAR consists of a single tall floating cylinder hull, supporting a
fixed deck. The cylinder however does not extend all the way to the seafloor,
but instead is tethered to the bottom by a series of cables and lines. They cover
depths up to 3000 meters.

FPSO - Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading. Typically a tanker type


hull or barge with wellheads on a turret. It operates at water depths 200 to 4000
meters.

Subsea production systems - These are wells located on the sea floor. The
petroleum is extracted at the seafloor, and then can be 'tied-back' to an already
existing production platform or even an onshore facility.

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Pipe laying
Offshore pipe-lines are normally laid on the sea bed using a pipe laying vessel or
barge. The specifications of a pipe include the diameter, the material used and the
tensile strength of the pipe used.

Pipe sections, typically 40 feet long, are welded to the end of the assembled pipe-
line on the barge and the pipe is launched over the stern of the barge as the vessel
moves forward.

Normally, 2-5 miles of pipes are laid per day.

Current day rates of pipe laying barges is $100,000 to $300,000 depending upon
the size of the barge and the technology used.

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L&T- EPC Business
L&T offers a wide spectrum of engineering services for the upstream oil and
gas sector. This includes FEED and conceptual design of process and wellhead
platforms, revamp / modification of platforms, subsea pipelines, and FPSOs.

L&T also undertakes procurement services including strategy development,


vendor identification, global sourcing, logistics & licensing, quality and other
compliances.

L&T and Sapura Crest Petroleum Berhad have formed a joint venture to build,
own and operate a derrick cum pipelaying barge valued at USD103 million. It
will provide offshore installation services including sub-sea pipelaying,
platform installation opportunities across India, the Middle East, South East
Asia, Australia and the Sakhalin region.

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Construction risk- Location,
Weather/Climate risks & Safety
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Normal weather conditions

History of natural calamities

Safety standards

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Construction risk- Execution Risks

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Piping defects ● Fourth level

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Erection defects

Piling defects

Structural defects
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Construction risk- Environmental risks

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Gas and oil leakage
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Wastes obtained from separators

Groundwater contamination
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Points to be considered during and prior to
construction phase

Proper exploration and pre-construction surveys

Weather monitoring and geological surveys

Project specific designing and planning

Following best safety standards

Continuous inspection mechanism

Appropriate mechanisms for disposal and effluent treatment.


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Major EPC risks (International)

Political stability & policies of the government involved- The political conditions of the country
can be a big risk considering the fact that in new democracies like Indonesia, laws are often not that
transparent and the court rulings though seldom can be inconsistent.

Taxes and duties variation- Considering the fact that different countries have different fiscal
policies and there can be a change in policies due to change in oil prices (windfall) and certain other
factors ( ‘Bhumiputra’ in Indonesia), though marginal, this risk needs to be accounted.

Risk pertaining to supply chain- Host government or companies sometimes requires the
contractor to use local suppliers with whom the contractor doesn’t have prior experience leading to
uncertainty in quality and scheduling. E.g.- Maersk project was delayed for 3 weeks because there
was no agreement between our vendor and Maersk on the material of pipes to be used.

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Major EPC risks (International)

Risks related to multi-party deals - Complex commercial agreements


require a consensus of all the partners/ companies involved hence leading
to delay and sometimes unnecessary legal problems. Though, the market
risk is considerably mitigated in multi-party deals, there is a considerable
increase in execution risk.

Human capital / Labour - Lack of trained and untrained labour can be a


major source of risk during project execution. Local regulatory and
economic condition is one of the major cause of this risk.

Contractual clarity – International contracts are more stricter in terms of


deviations and performance standards and hence, all the relevant clauses
need to be taken care of.

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Major EPC risks (International)
Risks due to increase in transportation prices- Transportation prices can be
volatile considering the fact that they are directly related with oil prices.

Forex variation- This risk arises out of the fact that different currencies can be
involved and the project takes up a considerable time in which the currency values
can be volatile.

Commodity price variations– Volatility in prices of commodities like steel can


sometimes lead to increase in the production costs especially in case of pipelaying
contracts.

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Major EPC risks (International)
Subcontractor’s risk- Sometimes, small delays may accrue to very large delays as in case
of the Maersk project, the barge of ‘Lift & Shift’ company was contracted for the first week
of February but now the project has been delayed.

Contracting a barge is done 1 year prior to the load out and there are no barges free for the
next one year.

As a consequence, the commissioning of the project would be done offshore.

And normally,

cost of work offshore = 80 X cost of work onshore

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Competitor
Analysis

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J. Ray McDermott, USA

J. Ray McDermott is a leading worldwide marine solutions company with fabrication


facilities in the Americas, Middle East, Caspian and Asia Pacific. It operates a diversified
fleet of vessels which are located in the Gulf of Mexico, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and
the Caspian Sea.

Advantages

v Better shipment and barges


v More experience
v Better inventory

Disadvantages

v Overbooked
v Mainly into big projects
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v Not project specific
Solar International, Singapore

Are primarily into manufacturing of various turbines required at an offshore


platform. Are also into construction of such platforms.

Advantage

v Lower bids because they are the equipment providers and the contractors too.
v Better technology
v Faster project completion

Disadvantage

v Relatively lower experience in the middle east and in construction projects


v Lower experience in pipe laying
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IOEC
Iranian Offshore Engineering and Construction Company

The company operates one of the Middle East’s largest offshore fleet of specialized sub-
sea pipe laying vessels. IOEC is capable of performing a wide range of Offshore
construction and maintenance operations on surface and sub-sea for the Oil and Gas
industry.

Advantages

v Advanced technology
v More experience
v Better inventory

Disadvantages

v Primarily located in the mid-east


v Lesser risk appetite 6363
Ramunia Holdings Berhad, Malaysia

It is principally engaged in the business of fabrication of offshore oil and gas


related structures. The Group also has strong interests in other related civil
works to complement its core activities and deliver integrated services.

Advantages

v Good presence in SE-Asia


v Good fleet of ships and barges

Disadvantages

v Lower capacity than ours


v Lesser experience
v Doesn’t have a good credit rating

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Hyundai Offshore & Engineering , Korea

The Offshore & Engineering Division of HHI covers Engineering, Procurement, Construction,
Offshore Installation and Project Management for all kinds of offshore oil and gas facilities.

Advantages

v Vast experience in EPC


v Large fleet of ships and barges
v Better technology

Disadvantages

v No network in mid-east
v Overbooked

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Opportunities

ONGC Videsh Ltd. is proposing to invest in 38 O&G projects in 18 countries


like Libya ,Syria, Cuba, Colombia, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Qatar, Egypt spending
approximately Rs.250 billion in these projects.

NOCs would normally prefer to give the projects to companies of developing


nations like India so that this may enable them to market their crude more
easily to these energy intensive economies.

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Conclusion

Good time to enter International markets as the valuations are lower.

Relaxation in tight demand supply situation has lowered Finance and


Development costs.

Forming alliances with NOCs can be a good option.

M&A with foreign E&P companies can be a viable option for reducing the
investments as well as execution costs and increasing the operational
efficiency due to enlarging of supply chain and resource base.

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