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M. Madden, M. A. Stevenson, P. J. B. Brown, and P. W. J. Batey, “Developing a Small-Area Electricity Demand Forecasting System.” The dynamics of a...
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M. Madden, M. A. Stevenson, P. J. B. Brown, and P. W. J. Batey, “Developing a Small-Area Electricity Demand Forecasting System.” The dynamics of a region’s population structure make forward planning prone to uncertainty and risk. MANWEB is one of the British Regional Electricity Companies. The difficulty of predicting future population levels throughout its area means that the large infrastructure investments needed to maintain and improve the distribution network are often subject to much uncertainty. In this paper the authors describe a small-area forecasting system developed to help MANWEB to reduce some of this uncertainty by estimating not only by how much electricity consumption is likely to change, but also where these changes are likely to occur.
M. R. Tayyaran and A. M. Khan, “Multinucleated Urban Regions: Transportation Energy Efficiency and Air Quality Advantages.” Motor vehicle fuel-efficiency standards and emission regulations are recognized to be the most effective measures for energy conservation and controlling emissions, respectively. In order to go beyond these measures, energy-efficient urban development patterns are of current interest. This paper reports research in the effects of improving job opportunities in satellite cities within a multinucleated urban area on region-wide transportation fuel consumption and emissions.
CHARLES HARVIE AND TRAN VAN HOA, “Long-Term Relationships among Oil Production, Oil Price, and Major Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1981-1991.” This paper reports the results of cointegration analysis applied to structural economic causality equations. By using data for oil production, the price of oil, the current account, real exchange rate, capital stock, nonoil output, manufacturing output, and gross domestic product growth for the U.K. economy, the validity of long-term relationships in the sense of Granger among these major macroeconomic aggregates is investigated.
PANAYIOTIS F. DIAMANDIS AND GEORGIOS P. KOURETAS, “Extending Traditional Cost-Benefit Analysis for Intra-European Union Projects.” This paper develops a methodology for appraising projects to be constructed in common by more than one country member of the European Union. In the methodology developed, particular attention is paid in estimating the social cost of financing of every alternative financial resource employed by intra-European projects and in estimating the country redistribution effect of the project. Finally, the methodology is applied to the case of the 600-megawatt electrical interconnection of Italy and Greece. MASAKI SHIMAZAKI, “Liberalization of the Japanese Electricity Market.” This study examines the liberalization of the Japanese electricity market, focusing on the characteristics of (1) entering the electricity generation business, (2) access to power companies’ transmission facilities, (3) beginning an electricity retail business, and (4) reforming the electricity rating system. RONALD L. COOPER, “Changes in Exchange Rates and Oil Prices for Saudi Arabia and Other OPEC Members.” When the U.S. dollar weakens significantly against currencies of other major trading nations, oil-exporting countries often become concerned about both loss of purchasing power for their imports as well as capital losses on dollar-denominated assets. This paper addresses these issues. LEWIS R. GALE, “Environmental Patterns from Free Trade: Implications from Dynamic NAFTA Models of Mexico.” Studies of the economic impact on Mexico from joining the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) point to significant dynamic gains from trade. Few studies, however, have effectively related these changes in economic variables to changes in environmental variables. Using sector-share relationships and projections of income growth from dynamic computable general equilibrium models of Mexico, several possible time paths for carbon dioxide emissions are derived.
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